MLBengine v14
← ATL at MIA, Sep 27, 2026
2:10 PM CT · loanDepot park · lineup projected
Hitter · MIA · batting 6Agustín Ramírez
Bats rightTalent grade BBalancedHot
.347wOBA vs RHP.291xwOBA vs his mix3.6expected PA
Starter · ATLJR Ritchie
Throws rightBTB Stuff 97Stable
4.5projected K24%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
JR Ritchie's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Curveball: 27% usage, 83.0 mph, -13.2″ arm side, -11.8″ rise. Agustín Ramírez: wOBA .281 vs league .281 (about even).Curveball 27%Sinker: 21% usage, 94.3 mph, +15.8″ arm side, +6.4″ rise. Agustín Ramírez: wOBA .343 vs league .344 (about even).Sinker 21%Fastball: 19% usage, 94.7 mph, +9.2″ arm side, +14.3″ rise. Agustín Ramírez: wOBA .344 vs league .345 (about even).Fastball 19%Changeup: 17% usage, 88.0 mph, +13.9″ arm side, +0.2″ rise. Agustín Ramírez: wOBA .307 vs league .308 (about even).Changeup 17%Cutter: 9% usage, 89.0 mph, -1.7″ arm side, +7.2″ rise. Agustín Ramírez: wOBA .310 vs league .312 (about even).Cutter 9%Slider: 6% usage, 84.8 mph, -4.1″ arm side, +0.4″ rise. Agustín Ramírez: wOBA .293 vs league .294 (about even).Slider 6%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Agustín Ramírez's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Agustín Ramírez's last 40 balls in playHit (14)Out (26)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 107.3 mph at -2°Single: 109.1 mph at 9°Out: 101.8 mph at -14°Single: 94.4 mph at -2°Out: 99.5 mph at 23°Out: 63.6 mph at 85°Out: 100.4 mph at -14°Single: 80.3 mph at -50°Out: 95.8 mph at 42°Single: 107.9 mph at 8°Out: 102.6 mph at 16°Out: 85.5 mph at 64°Double: 94.7 mph at -1°Single: 91.2 mph at 11°Out: 94.0 mph at 5°Home run: 112.5 mph at 18°Single: 100.0 mph at -10°Single: 98.4 mph at 9°Out: 109.7 mph at -11°Out: 72.8 mph at 38°Out: 71.9 mph at 53°Single: 70.9 mph at -58°Home run: 108.6 mph at 32°Out: 109.9 mph at 4°Double: 107.5 mph at 12°Out: 103.1 mph at -7°Out: 85.1 mph at -37°Out: 83.9 mph at 49°Out: 79.0 mph at 3°Out: 93.4 mph at 59°Out: 103.4 mph at 14°Out: 64.4 mph at 15°Home run: 108.3 mph at 21°Out: 78.4 mph at -5°Out: 92.9 mph at 52°Out: 94.7 mph at 39°Out: 59.0 mph at 28°Out: 92.3 mph at -26°Single: 99.5 mph at -1°Out: 88.2 mph at -9°
48% hit 95+ mph33% in the sweet spot35% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit54.5%55.6%-1.1
2+ total bases29.9%31.4%-1.4
Home run8.4%10.0%-1.6
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-0.6
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.2
Park
-0.7
2+ total bases
Starter
-0.6
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.2
Park
-1.0
Home run
Starter
-0.5
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
-1.1

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Agustín Ramírez hits
Where they meet

.288 xwOBA for Agustín Ramírez in the spots JR Ritchie throws to righties

The average hitter in those same spots: .308 (-20 points). His best spot against righties is up-left, and JR Ritchie puts 6% of his pitches there. Context only; the projection reads pitch type, not location.

JR Ritchie · where he throws to right-handed hitters
6% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing6%7% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 29% per swing7%6% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 50% per swing6%5% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing5%8% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing8%5% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 17% per swing5%2% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing2%5% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 13% per swing5%8% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 20% per swing8%11% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing11%7% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 67% per swing7%3% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing3%28% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 30% per swing28%
All · 195 pitches · catcher's view
3% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters3%6% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters6%1% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters1%8% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters8%7% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters7%7% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters7%1% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters1%7% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters7%8% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters8%8% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters8%1% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters1%1% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters1%40% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters40%
Curveball · 72 pitches · catcher's view
9% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters9%6% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters6%6% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters6%4% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters4%10% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters10%4% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters4%2% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters2%4% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters4%4% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters4%15% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters15%7% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters7%6% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters6%22% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters22%
Sinker · 68 pitches · catcher's view
7% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters7%7% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters7%16% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters16%0% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters3% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters3%0% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters7% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters7%0% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters13% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters13%13% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters13%23% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters23%3% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters3%10% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters10%
Fastball · 31 pitches · catcher's view

Share of his pitches in each spot; darker is more. Last 90 days.

Agustín Ramírez · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .347 shrunk (raw .494 on 6 PA) · league .274 · 15 pitches seen.347xwOBA .352 shrunk (raw .534 on 3 PA) · league .307 · 6 pitches seen.352xwOBA .263 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .263 · 5 pitches seenxwOBA .385 shrunk (raw .472 on 6 PA) · league .342 · 15 pitches seen.385xwOBA .418 shrunk (raw .473 on 7 PA) · league .386 · 14 pitches seen.418xwOBA .291 shrunk (raw .240 on 7 PA) · league .321 · 19 pitches seen.291xwOBA .282 shrunk (raw .126 on 2 PA) · league .308 · 11 pitches seen.282xwOBA .322 shrunk (raw .235 on 4 PA) · league .351 · 17 pitches seen.322xwOBA .257 shrunk (raw .119 on 3 PA) · league .292 · 9 pitches seen.257xwOBA .330 shrunk (raw .249 on 7 PA) · league .377 · 27 pitches seen.330xwOBA .257 shrunk (raw .158 on 2 PA) · league .274 · 16 pitches seen.257xwOBA .201 shrunk (raw .109 on 8 PA) · league .263 · 29 pitches seen.201xwOBA .212 shrunk (raw .130 on 9 PA) · league .274 · 63 pitches seen.212
vs RHP · 246 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 22% of 9 swings · league 22%22%Whiff 0% of 6 swings · league 20%0%Whiff 0% of 4 swings · league 19%0%Whiff 0% of 12 swings · league 10%0%Whiff 0% of 11 swings · league 9%0%Whiff 8% of 12 swings · league 11%8%Whiff 43% of 7 swings · league 14%43%Whiff 22% of 9 swings · league 13%22%Whiff 0% of 5 swings · league 17%0%Whiff 30% of 10 swings · league 28%30%Whiff 50% of 2 swings · league 24%50%Whiff 44% of 16 swings · league 32%44%Whiff 61% of 18 swings · league 49%61%
vs RHP · 246 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 60% of 15 pitches · league 62%60%Swings at 100% of 6 pitches · league 72%100%Swings at 80% of 5 pitches · league 66%80%Swings at 80% of 15 pitches · league 70%80%Swings at 79% of 14 pitches · league 76%79%Swings at 63% of 19 pitches · league 70%63%Swings at 64% of 11 pitches · league 65%64%Swings at 53% of 17 pitches · league 68%53%Swings at 56% of 9 pitches · league 60%56%Swings at 37% of 27 pitches · league 24%37%Swings at 13% of 16 pitches · league 34%13%Swings at 55% of 29 pitches · league 40%55%Swings at 29% of 63 pitches · league 32%29%
vs RHP · 246 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Agustín Ramírez against each of JR Ritchie's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Curveball27%83.0-13″ / -12″.281.28125.2%30.4%44About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Sinker21%94.3+16″ / +6″.343.34411.6%11.8%154About league average vs these
Fastball19%94.7+9″ / +14″.344.34518.6%18.3%162About league average vs these
Changeup17%88.0+14″ / +0″.307.30830.3%31.9%47About league average vs these
Cutter9%89.0-2″ / +7″.310.31229.0%28.7%100About league average vs these
Slider6%84.8-4″ / +0″.293.29427.4%32.8%106About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Agustín Ramírez · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G49.111.111.111.112.20411.1%0.0%35.3%94.8109.10.0%71.4%14.3%
Last 15 G1230.300.300.567.379.31823.3%0.0%28.6%92.4112.59.1%50.0%31.8%
Last 30 G2252.260.288.500.360.30221.2%3.8%24.2%89.8112.57.9%42.1%28.9%
90 days2865.274.308.484.359.28223.1%4.6%24.8%90.4112.56.5%41.3%26.1%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 46 balls in play
Ground 52%Line drive 15%Fly ball 17%Pop-up 15%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G58.500.625.500.512.47312.5%25.0%26.7%96.9107.90.0%60.0%60.0%
Last 15 G1219.188.316.188.267.35426.3%15.8%31.4%97.1109.90.0%60.0%40.0%
Last 30 G2548.205.354.231.314.31325.0%18.8%25.7%94.0111.60.0%50.0%26.9%
90 days3055.200.345.222.303.30529.1%18.2%29.7%92.7111.60.0%46.4%28.6%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 28 balls in play
Ground 57%Line drive 25%Fly ball 14%Pop-up 4%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G517.267.353.267.312.33911.8%11.8%31.2%95.7109.10.0%66.7%33.3%
Last 15 G1549.261.306.435.336.33224.5%6.1%29.6%93.8112.56.2%53.1%34.4%
Last 30 G30100.236.320.382.338.30723.0%11.0%25.0%91.5112.54.7%45.3%28.1%
90 days38120.243.325.374.333.29225.8%10.8%27.2%91.3112.54.1%43.2%27.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 74 balls in play
Ground 54%Line drive 19%Fly ball 16%Pop-up 11%
Agustín Ramírez · percentile ranksvs 228 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormHot
Contact rating45Average
Last 100 pitches84trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.335 / .311running 24 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit9/12
2+ total bases4/12
Home run2/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPSinker94.8107.3-2.426Double play
Sep 25RHPFastball98.0109.19.790Single
Sep 25RHPSinker94.5101.8-14.176Out
Sep 24LHPFastball93.694.4-2.286Single
Sep 24LHPFastball94.099.523.683Out
Sep 24RHPSweeper85.763.685.000Out
Sep 23RHPSplitter82.2100.4-14.209Out
Sep 23LHPFastball93.880.3-50.164Single
Sep 23RHPCurveball81.495.842.023Out
Sep 22LHPSplitter83.8107.98.661Single
Sep 22LHPFastball90.1102.616.596Out
Sep 22RHPCurveball77.685.564.009Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25411010
Sep 24411001
Sep 23511001
Sep 22311000
Sep 20100010
Sep 19523003
Sep 18436100
Sep 15500002
Sep 14411002
Sep 13114100

Two strikes

JR Ritchie ATL · RHPwith two strikes
JR Ritchie with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Curveball31%45%21.6%21.8%20.7%
Changeup16%21%38.5%24.0%18.4%
Fastball19%17%36.4%28.6%18.3%
Sinker26%10%25.0%25.0%17.7%
Cutter8%6%20.0%14.3%18.7%
Slider1%2%0.0%50.0%21.4%
Agustín Ramírez bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Agustín Ramírez with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Makes contact on his two-strike stuff more than most
With two strikesHimLeague
K%40.0%43.3%
Whiff%20.4%23.5%
Contact%79.6%76.5%
Chase%36.2%39.4%
wOBA.247.235
Whiff vs his put-away shapes22.0%25.2%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeBBalanced type
wOBA.321
K%23.1%
BB%8.4%
Whiff%12.0%
Barrel%5.1%
Hard-hit%29.6%
Avg EV90.7

Against right-handers, last 90 days

65 PA
wOBA.347
xwOBA vs this mix.291against pitches like his
RV/1000.30
Hard-hit%28.2%
K%23.3%
BB%10.3%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
JR RitchieRHP · ATL vs MIA
4.5projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 7 · 21.3 batters over 4.9 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 34.2%34%≤34 strikeouts: 18.8%19%45 strikeouts: 17.0%17%56 strikeouts: 12.8%13%67 strikeouts: 8.3%8%78 strikeouts: 4.7%5%89+ strikeouts: 4.2%4%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 47% (red bars) · under: 53%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%23.8%
BB%13.1%
Whiff%9.1%
Velo89.3
BTB Stuff97
Location99
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff%
Curveball31%10383.013.7%
Sinker24%8694.14.4%
Fastball23%10695.17.0%
Changeup18%8887.411.9%
Cutter5%10588.95.6%
Last 3 startsStable
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 228636%13%9%.309
Sep 168223%11%36%.577
Aug 28120%6%35%.320

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

JR Ritchie ATL · RHPvsMIA lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

3 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.8%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameATL @ MIA →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Agustín Ramírez: every projection we've made →