ATL at MIA, Sep 27, 2026

The game

ATL runs4.7win 58%

MIA runs3.9win 42%

Total8.6no pre-game book line

No run, 1st inning51%research only

Game totals, win probability and the first inning are research only: in the backtest they don't beat the league-wide rate. Shown as projections, never as plays.

Park and air

Carry: – vs neutral air
Weather: 77°F · Crosswind · roof retractable
Park factor: Runs 100 · HR 89 100 = average

Air density from observed temperature, dew point and pressure. It shapes batted balls, not the run total directly.

ATL starter

JR RitchieRHP · ATL vs MIA

4.5projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 7 · 21.3 batters over 4.9 innings

Over 4.5: 47% (red bars) · under: 53%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.

K%23.8%

BB%13.1%

Whiff%9.1%

Velo89.3

BTB Stuff97

Location99

PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff%

Curveball31%10383.013.7%

Sinker24%8694.14.4%

Fastball23%10695.17.0%

Changeup18%8887.411.9%

Cutter5%10588.95.6%

Last 3 startsStable

Date	Pitches	K%	Whiff%	Hard-hit%	wOBA
Sep 22	86	36%	13%	9%	.309
Sep 16	82	23%	11%	36%	.577
Aug 2	81	20%	6%	35%	.320

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

JR Ritchie ATL · RHPvsMIA lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

3 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

1Otto Lopez12%

2Jakob Marsee15%

3Heriberto Hernández29%

4Javier Sanoja8%

5Griffin Conine29%

6Agustín Ramírez23%

7Deyvison De Los Santos25%

8Joe Mack26%

9Jared Serna24%

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.8%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

MIA starter

Janson JunkRHP · MIA vs ATL

3.0projected strikeouts · likely 1 to 5 · 19.0 batters over 4.5 innings

Over 3.5: 36% (red bars) · under: 64%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.

K%16.4%

BB%7.6%

Whiff%5.5%

Velo88.0

BTB Stuff99

Location106

PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff%

Fastball35%10494.15.0%

Sweeper17%9680.49.2%

Changeup16%9987.34.1%

Slider15%9986.25.8%

Curveball12%9380.84.7%

Sinker5%9393.74.3%

Last 3 startsTrending Up

Date	Pitches	K%	Whiff%	Hard-hit%	wOBA
Sep 22	84	33%	8%	11%	.139
Sep 15	72	27%	10%	13%	.443
Sep 9	60	0%	3%	32%	.529

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Janson Junk MIA · RHPvsATL lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

1Drake Baldwin19%

2Ronald Acuña Jr.23%

3Matt Olson24%

4Michael Harris II20%

5Mauricio Dubón11%

6Ozzie Albies21%

7Mike Yastrzemski24%

8Austin Riley34%

9Sean Murphy27%

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.8%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

Pitch-mix battles

each lineup against the starter it faces

Janson Junk MIA · RHPvsATL lineuppitch-mix battle

Janson Junk's whiff and run value per 100 pitches next to what this lineup has done against the same pitch type. Edge is positive when the pitch favors the hitters.
	Janson Junk's pitches					ATL lineup vs that pitch
Pitch	Usage	Velo	BTB Stuff	Whiff%	RV/100	wOBA	Whiff%	Hard-hit%	Edge
Fastball	35%	94.1	104	5.0%	1.44	.321	9.9%	32.6%	-0.50
Sweeper	17%	80.4	96	9.2%	-2.48	.293	13.9%	17.3%	+0.14
Changeup	16%	87.3	99	4.1%	0.47	.324	12.0%	25.3%	+0.03
Slider	15%	86.2	99	5.8%	-0.53	.353	16.9%	23.7%	+0.31
Curveball	12%	80.8	93	4.7%	1.58	.292	12.2%	22.9%	-0.39
Sinker	5%	93.7	93	4.3%	-1.97	.377	6.9%	31.0%	+0.29

JR Ritchie ATL · RHPvsMIA lineuppitch-mix battle

JR Ritchie's whiff and run value per 100 pitches next to what this lineup has done against the same pitch type. Edge is positive when the pitch favors the hitters.
	JR Ritchie's pitches					MIA lineup vs that pitch
Pitch	Usage	Velo	BTB Stuff	Whiff%	RV/100	wOBA	Whiff%	Hard-hit%	Edge
Curveball	31%	83.0	103	13.7%	-1.46	.348	15.7%	19.6%	+0.98
Sinker	24%	94.1	86	4.4%	-0.14	.372	4.5%	31.7%	+1.03
Fastball	23%	95.1	106	7.0%	-2.19	.388	8.6%	31.5%	+1.48
Changeup	18%	87.4	88	11.9%	-1.07	.275	18.5%	18.6%	-0.46
Cutter	5%	88.9	105	5.6%	-11.80	.365	7.1%	34.2%	+0.72

Bullpens

Braves bullpen#5 of 30

K%23.2%

BB%5.7%

K-BB%17.5%

SwStr%13.6%

wOBA allowed.298

Arms available18 / 18

No one pitched yesterday.

Ranked on a blend of K-BB% (60%) and wOBA allowed (40%) over the bullpen window. Tired arms are context: in our tests bullpen rest didn't improve run totals.

Marlins bullpen#16 of 30

K%23.4%

BB%11.5%

K-BB%11.9%

SwStr%9.5%

wOBA allowed.329

Arms available15 / 15

No one pitched yesterday.

Ranked on a blend of K-BB% (60%) and wOBA allowed (40%) over the bullpen window. Tired arms are context: in our tests bullpen rest didn't improve run totals.

Two strikes

how each starter finishes hitters

JR Ritchie ATL · RHPwith two strikes

Usage, overall to two strikesOverall Two strikes

Curveball+14 pts

Changeup+5 pts

Fastball-1 pts

Sinker-16 pts

Cutter-2 pts

Slider+1 pts

JR Ritchie with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
Pitch	Overall	2 strikes	Whiff%	Put-away	League put-away
Curveball	31%	45%	21.6%	21.8%	20.7%
Changeup	16%	21%	38.5%	24.0%	18.4%
Fastball	19%	17%	36.4%	28.6%	18.3%
Sinker	26%	10%	25.0%	25.0%	17.7%
Cutter	8%	6%	20.0%	14.3%	18.7%
Slider	1%	2%	0.0%	50.0%	21.4%

Janson Junk MIA · RHPwith two strikes

Usage, overall to two strikesOverall Two strikes

Fastball+1 pts

Changeup+3 pts

Sweeper+2 pts

Slider-1 pts

Curveball-3 pts

Sinker-2 pts

Janson Junk with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
Pitch	Overall	2 strikes	Whiff%	Put-away	League put-away
Fastball	36%	36%	11.1%	17.1%	18.3%
Changeup	16%	19%	12.9%	10.5%	18.4%
Sweeper	16%	18%	8.6%	7.3%	20.7%
Slider	16%	15%	13.3%	17.8%	21.4%
Curveball	11%	9%	22.2%	11.5%	20.7%
Sinker	5%	4%	0.0%	9.1%	17.7%

Braves lineup

Projected · facing Janson Junk RHP

Matchup: points of 1+ hit chance against the same hitter facing a league-average starter, bullpen and park. wOBA vs hand: the last 90 days against pitchers of the starter's hand. Talent: season-level grade. Form is context and doesn't move a projection.
Spot	Hitter	1+ hit	2+ TB	HR	PA	Matchup (1+ hit)	wOBA vs hand	Talent grade	Type	Form
1	Drake Baldwin DH · bats L	70.9%	45.1%	14.1%	4.0	+2.2	.404	A	Power	Normal
2	Ronald Acuña Jr. RF · bats R	67.2%	44.0%	17.2%	3.9	+2.0	.350	A	Power	Normal
3	Matt Olson 1B · bats L	64.2%	46.1%	21.5%	3.8	+2.9	.343	A	Power	Hot
4	Michael Harris II CF · bats L	68.5%	43.3%	12.6%	3.8	+1.9	.342	C	Power	Hot
5	Mauricio Dubón SS · bats R	68.2%	36.7%	4.2%	3.7	+1.8	.322	F	Balanced	Normal
6	Ozzie Albies 2B · bats S	59.9%	33.4%	9.5%	3.6	+3.1	.279	F	Balanced	Cold
7	Mike Yastrzemski LF · bats L	57.3%	36.0%	13.0%	3.5	+3.0	.325	C	Balanced	Normal
8	Austin Riley 3B · bats R	57.9%	35.8%	14.2%	3.4	+3.7	.304	B	Power	Normal
9	Sean Murphy C · bats R	51.8%	30.3%	11.9%	3.3	+4.3	.325	Avg	Balanced	Normal

Marlins lineup

Projected · facing JR Ritchie RHP