MLBengine v14
← ATL at MIA, Sep 27, 2026
2:10 PM CT · loanDepot park · lineup projected
Hitter · ATL · batting 1Drake Baldwin
Bats leftTalent grade APowerNormal
.404wOBA vs RHP.383xwOBA vs his mix4.0expected PA
Starter · MIAJanson Junk
Throws rightBTB Stuff 99Trending Up
3.0projected K16%K%2.7trips vs this hitter
Janson Junk's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 38% usage, 93.7 mph, +3.8″ arm side, +18.2″ rise. Drake Baldwin: wOBA .382 vs league .355 (hitter's edge).Fastball 38%Slider: 21% usage, 86.7 mph, -6.0″ arm side, +3.1″ rise. Drake Baldwin: wOBA .357 vs league .330 (hitter's edge).Slider 21%Sweeper: 16% usage, 81.0 mph, -14.3″ arm side, +2.2″ rise. Drake Baldwin: wOBA .353 vs league .326 (hitter's edge).Sweeper 16%Changeup: 11% usage, 87.6 mph, +14.3″ arm side, +2.6″ rise. Drake Baldwin: wOBA .318 vs league .292 (hitter's edge).Changeup 11%Curveball: 11% usage, 81.1 mph, -7.0″ arm side, -13.3″ rise. Drake Baldwin: wOBA .316 vs league .290 (hitter's edge).Curveball 11%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Drake Baldwin's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Drake Baldwin's last 40 balls in playHit (17)Out (23)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 90.9 mph at -28°Out: 84.4 mph at -14°Out: 96.2 mph at -7°Out: 104.4 mph at 30°Out: 106.6 mph at 15°Single: 94.9 mph at -10°Out: 104.6 mph at 26°Double: 100.8 mph at 0°Out: 60.2 mph at -82°Out: 94.0 mph at 30°Out: 94.3 mph at 22°Single: 56.8 mph at -80°Single: 105.6 mph at -6°Single: 102.7 mph at 6°Out: 88.5 mph at 45°Single: 65.9 mph at 26°Out: 58.5 mph at 4°Single: 101.6 mph at 3°Double: 107.3 mph at 22°Single: 62.4 mph at 24°Out: 85.8 mph at 44°Double: 105.8 mph at 26°Out: 95.4 mph at -5°Out: 93.1 mph at -13°Out: 99.7 mph at 35°Out: 64.0 mph at -63°Single: 97.3 mph at 6°Out: 58.8 mph at -57°Home run: 107.6 mph at 23°Out: 95.5 mph at 27°Single: 104.1 mph at 5°Single: 92.3 mph at 8°Out: 91.0 mph at 64°Single: 91.8 mph at 16°Out: 90.5 mph at 39°Out: 90.9 mph at 29°Double: 100.3 mph at 30°Out: 88.7 mph at -17°Single: 100.5 mph at 10°Out: 60.6 mph at 67°
45% hit 95+ mph40% in the sweet spot43% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit70.9%68.7%+2.2
2+ total bases45.1%43.8%+1.4
Home run14.1%15.5%-1.3
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+2.4
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.3
Park
-0.5
2+ total bases
Starter
+1.9
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.4
Park
-1.0
Home run
Starter
-0.3
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.4
Park
-1.5

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Drake Baldwin hits
Where they meet

.355 xwOBA for Drake Baldwin in the spots Janson Junk throws to lefties

The average hitter in those same spots: .310 (+44 points). His best spot against righties is middle, and Janson Junk puts 7% of his pitches there. Context only; the projection reads pitch type, not location.

Janson Junk · where he throws to left-handed hitters
6% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 27% per swing6%5% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 31% per swing5%4% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 5% per swing4%5% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 6% per swing5%7% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 7% per swing7%6% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 4% per swing6%5% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing5%8% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing8%6% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing6%12% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 44% per swing12%5% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 18% per swing5%10% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 13% per swing10%21% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 25% per swing21%
All · 613 pitches · catcher's view
11% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters11%6% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters6%7% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters7%7% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters7%8% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters8%7% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters7%3% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters3%5% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters5%6% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters6%17% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters17%9% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters9%3% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters3%11% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters11%
Fastball · 247 pitches · catcher's view
3% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters3%2% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters2%0% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters3% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters3%5% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters5%1% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters1%9% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters9%11% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters11%3% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters3%9% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters9%0% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters37% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters37%17% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters17%
Changeup · 107 pitches · catcher's view
3% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters3%5% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters5%4% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters4%6% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters6%11% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters11%8% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters8%3% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters3%12% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters12%8% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters8%5% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters5%3% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters3%4% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters4%26% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters26%
Slider · 95 pitches · catcher's view
5% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters5%4% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters4%5% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters5%3% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters3%3% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters3%5% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters5%3% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters3%10% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters10%6% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters6%12% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters12%3% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters3%10% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters10%33% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters33%
Curveball · 81 pitches · catcher's view
2% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters2%3% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters3%3% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters3%3% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters3%5% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters5%12% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters12%2% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters2%7% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters7%7% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters7%12% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters12%0% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters5% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters5%40% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters40%
Sweeper · 60 pitches · catcher's view
9% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters9%4% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters4%0% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters0% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters9% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters9%4% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters4%17% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters17%9% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters9%17% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters17%4% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters4%0% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters4% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters4%22% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters22%
Sinker · 23 pitches · catcher's view

Share of his pitches in each spot; darker is more. Last 90 days.

Drake Baldwin · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .254 shrunk (raw .176 on 3 PA) · league .274 · 29 pitches seen.254xwOBA .399 shrunk (raw .491 on 12 PA) · league .307 · 43 pitches seen.399xwOBA .207 shrunk (raw .040 on 4 PA) · league .263 · 31 pitches seen.207xwOBA .477 shrunk (raw .592 on 14 PA) · league .342 · 42 pitches seen.477xwOBA .577 shrunk (raw .712 on 17 PA) · league .386 · 58 pitches seen.577xwOBA .326 shrunk (raw .329 on 22 PA) · league .321 · 56 pitches seen.326xwOBA .305 shrunk (raw .302 on 15 PA) · league .308 · 45 pitches seen.305xwOBA .438 shrunk (raw .483 on 23 PA) · league .351 · 60 pitches seen.438xwOBA .325 shrunk (raw .347 on 18 PA) · league .292 · 43 pitches seen.325xwOBA .381 shrunk (raw .384 on 18 PA) · league .377 · 162 pitches seen.381xwOBA .354 shrunk (raw .422 on 14 PA) · league .274 · 68 pitches seen.354xwOBA .278 shrunk (raw .283 on 34 PA) · league .263 · 131 pitches seen.278xwOBA .317 shrunk (raw .330 on 38 PA) · league .274 · 174 pitches seen.317
vs RHP · 942 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 27% of 15 swings · league 22%27%Whiff 28% of 29 swings · league 20%28%Whiff 32% of 22 swings · league 19%32%Whiff 17% of 29 swings · league 10%17%Whiff 10% of 48 swings · league 9%10%Whiff 7% of 46 swings · league 11%7%Whiff 15% of 33 swings · league 14%15%Whiff 8% of 50 swings · league 13%8%Whiff 17% of 36 swings · league 17%17%Whiff 39% of 28 swings · league 28%39%Whiff 29% of 24 swings · league 24%29%Whiff 20% of 60 swings · league 32%20%Whiff 43% of 77 swings · league 49%43%
vs RHP · 942 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 52% of 29 pitches · league 62%52%Swings at 67% of 43 pitches · league 72%67%Swings at 71% of 31 pitches · league 66%71%Swings at 69% of 42 pitches · league 70%69%Swings at 83% of 58 pitches · league 76%83%Swings at 82% of 56 pitches · league 70%82%Swings at 73% of 45 pitches · league 65%73%Swings at 83% of 60 pitches · league 68%83%Swings at 84% of 43 pitches · league 60%84%Swings at 17% of 162 pitches · league 24%17%Swings at 35% of 68 pitches · league 34%35%Swings at 46% of 131 pitches · league 40%46%Swings at 44% of 174 pitches · league 32%44%
vs RHP · 942 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Drake Baldwin against each of Janson Junk's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball38%93.7+4″ / +18″.382.35516.2%16.9%138About league average vs these
Slider21%86.7-6″ / +3″.357.33025.8%26.7%98About league average vs these
Sweeper16%81.0-14″ / +2″.353.32622.6%23.6%37About league average vs these
Changeup11%87.6+14″ / +3″.318.29222.9%27.8%83About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Curveball11%81.1-7″ / -13″.316.29028.2%29.1%43About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Drake Baldwin · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G515.231.333.231.273.44420.0%6.7%28.6%93.0106.620.0%50.0%30.0%
Last 15 G1347.366.426.585.431.47914.9%6.4%19.1%89.6107.620.0%42.9%45.7%
Last 30 G2693.372.409.570.420.39922.6%4.3%27.4%90.2107.715.2%43.9%47.0%
90 days70233.345.416.539.419.39418.5%9.4%22.1%92.0109.212.2%51.8%37.8%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 164 balls in play
Ground 39%Line drive 21%Fly ball 34%Pop-up 6%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G38.286.375.429.356.24525.0%12.5%20.0%91.0105.60.0%40.0%40.0%
Last 15 G923.238.304.333.287.27034.8%8.7%22.7%93.2106.40.0%53.8%38.5%
Last 30 G1943.225.279.300.262.25830.2%7.0%27.2%90.6106.40.0%44.4%44.4%
90 days55120.207.267.252.240.30520.8%6.7%22.8%89.9109.53.5%46.5%37.2%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 86 balls in play
Ground 58%Line drive 20%Fly ball 17%Pop-up 5%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G523.250.348.300.302.37521.7%8.7%26.7%92.3106.613.3%46.7%33.3%
Last 15 G1570.323.386.500.384.41021.4%7.1%20.1%90.5107.614.6%45.8%43.8%
Last 30 G30136.325.368.484.370.35525.0%5.1%27.3%90.3107.710.8%44.1%46.2%
90 days79353.297.365.438.358.36419.3%8.5%22.3%91.3109.59.2%50.0%37.6%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 250 balls in play
Ground 46%Line drive 21%Fly ball 28%Pop-up 6%
Drake Baldwin · percentile ranksvs 228 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating95Top tier
Last 100 pitches99steady
wOBA / xwOBA.361 / .383running 22 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit9/12
2+ total bases7/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPChangeup92.490.9-28.042Out
Sep 25RHPChangeup89.984.4-14.080Double play
Sep 25RHPChangeup91.396.2-7.187Out
Sep 24RHPSinker89.8104.4301.594Out
Sep 24RHPFastball97.6106.615.688Out
Sep 24RHPSlider83.094.9-10.152Single
Sep 24RHPCutter89.4104.6261.763Out
Sep 24LHPSinker93.5100.80.386Double
Sep 23LHPFastball91.860.2-82.140Out
Sep 23LHPSweeper82.294.030.236Out
Sep 22LHPSweeper84.094.322.215Out
Sep 22RHPFastball94.756.8-80.123Single
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25400001
Sep 24523000
Sep 23500002
Sep 22422010
Sep 20511012
Sep 19534001
Sep 18523011
Sep 16400000
Sep 15525101
Sep 14422011

Two strikes

Janson Junk MIA · RHPwith two strikes
Janson Junk with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball36%36%11.1%17.1%18.3%
Changeup16%19%12.9%10.5%18.4%
Sweeper16%18%8.6%7.3%20.7%
Slider16%15%13.3%17.8%21.4%
Curveball11%9%22.2%11.5%20.7%
Sinker5%4%0.0%9.1%17.7%
Drake Baldwin bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Drake Baldwin with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%36.0%41.3%
Whiff%18.9%21.6%
Contact%81.1%78.4%
Chase%45.4%39.4%
wOBA.301.246
Whiff vs his put-away shapes19.1%22.0%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeAPower type
wOBA.359
K%19.3%
BB%8.6%
Whiff%11.3%
Barrel%6.7%
Hard-hit%35.0%
Avg EV91.2

Against right-handers, last 90 days

233 PA
wOBA.404
xwOBA vs this mix.383against pitches like his
RV/1001.37
Hard-hit%35.4%
K%19.1%
BB%8.6%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Janson JunkRHP · MIA vs ATL
3.0projected strikeouts · likely 1 to 5 · 19.0 batters over 4.5 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 63.7%64%≤34 strikeouts: 16.9%17%45 strikeouts: 10.4%10%56 strikeouts: 5.3%5%67 strikeouts: 2.4%2%78 strikeouts: 0.9%1%89+ strikeouts: 0.4%0%9+book 3.5
Over 3.5: 36% (red bars) · under: 64%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%16.4%
BB%7.6%
Whiff%5.5%
Velo88.0
BTB Stuff99
Location106
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff%
Fastball35%10494.15.0%
Sweeper17%9680.49.2%
Changeup16%9987.34.1%
Slider15%9986.25.8%
Curveball12%9380.84.7%
Sinker5%9393.74.3%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 228433%8%11%.139
Sep 157227%10%13%.443
Sep 9600%3%32%.529

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Janson Junk MIA · RHPvsATL lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.8%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameATL @ MIA →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Drake Baldwin: every projection we've made →