MLBengine v14
← ATL at MIA, Sep 27, 2026
2:10 PM CT · loanDepot park · lineup projected
Hitter · MIA · batting 5Griffin Conine
Bats leftTalent grade APowerCold
.392wOBA vs RHP.364xwOBA vs his mix3.7expected PA
Starter · ATLJR Ritchie
Throws rightBTB Stuff 97Stable
4.5projected K24%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
JR Ritchie's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Curveball: 27% usage, 83.0 mph, -13.2″ arm side, -11.8″ rise. Griffin Conine: wOBA .307 vs league .285 (hitter's edge).Curveball 27%Sinker: 21% usage, 94.3 mph, +15.8″ arm side, +6.4″ rise. Griffin Conine: wOBA .382 vs league .360 (hitter's edge).Sinker 21%Fastball: 19% usage, 94.7 mph, +9.2″ arm side, +14.3″ rise. Griffin Conine: wOBA .378 vs league .356 (hitter's edge).Fastball 19%Changeup: 17% usage, 88.0 mph, +13.9″ arm side, +0.2″ rise. Griffin Conine: wOBA .317 vs league .296 (hitter's edge).Changeup 17%Cutter: 9% usage, 89.0 mph, -1.7″ arm side, +7.2″ rise. Griffin Conine: wOBA .372 vs league .350 (hitter's edge).Cutter 9%Slider: 6% usage, 84.8 mph, -4.1″ arm side, +0.4″ rise. Griffin Conine: wOBA .344 vs league .322 (hitter's edge).Slider 6%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Griffin Conine's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Griffin Conine's last 40 balls in playHit (16)Out (24)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Single: 99.8 mph at 5°Home run: 102.4 mph at 28°Out: 65.6 mph at -47°Out: 79.6 mph at -35°Single: 85.5 mph at -5°Single: 92.9 mph at 0°Out: 74.2 mph at -2°Out: 106.0 mph at 22°Out: 61.9 mph at -51°Out: 78.7 mph at 37°Single: 65.1 mph at 35°Single: 106.9 mph at 2°Out: 96.5 mph at -11°Out: 81.8 mph at 75°Home run: 110.8 mph at 29°Out: 84.8 mph at 44°Out: 93.3 mph at 28°Out: 98.0 mph at 18°Out: 60.9 mph at -48°Out: 104.6 mph at -5°Home run: 100.0 mph at 28°Out: 49.8 mph at -47°Single: 92.2 mph at 18°Out: 68.2 mph at 15°Single: 81.2 mph at 15°Single: 82.1 mph at 8°Double: 102.4 mph at 29°Out: 77.3 mph at 8°Out: 92.9 mph at 72°Single: 79.3 mph at 22°Single: 100.2 mph at 9°Single: 102.9 mph at 7°Double: 114.2 mph at 14°Out: 80.9 mph at 59°Out: 94.2 mph at 73°Out: 54.1 mph at 87°Out: 101.4 mph at 27°Out: 95.6 mph at 50°Out: 91.8 mph at -10°Out: 102.3 mph at 47°
40% hit 95+ mph40% in the sweet spot40% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit55.4%58.0%-2.6
2+ total bases33.2%36.2%-3.0
Home run13.5%16.4%-2.9
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-1.5
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.0
Park
-1.0
2+ total bases
Starter
-1.3
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
-1.5
Home run
Starter
-0.9
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.2
Park
-1.8

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Griffin Conine hits
Where they meet

.337 xwOBA for Griffin Conine in the spots JR Ritchie throws to lefties

The average hitter in those same spots: .310 (+27 points). His best spot against righties is up-left, and JR Ritchie puts 5% of his pitches there. Context only; the projection reads pitch type, not location.

JR Ritchie · where he throws to left-handed hitters
5% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 40% per swing5%4% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 30% per swing4%3% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 33% per swing3%7% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 23% per swing7%6% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing6%3% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing3%5% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 17% per swing5%5% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 18% per swing5%3% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing3%18% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing18%8% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing8%16% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 40% per swing16%18% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 48% per swing18%
All · 286 pitches · catcher's view
1% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters1%1% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters1%0% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters9% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters9%6% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters6%3% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters3%6% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters6%12% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters12%4% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters4%14% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters14%1% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters1%10% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters10%32% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters32%
Curveball · 78 pitches · catcher's view
2% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters2%0% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters0% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters3% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters3%5% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters5%2% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters2%6% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters6%6% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters6%5% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters5%18% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters18%0% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters34% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters34%21% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters21%
Changeup · 67 pitches · catcher's view
9% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters9%14% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters14%10% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters10%5% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters5%5% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters5%3% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters3%2% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters2%0% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters0% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters19% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters19%21% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters21%3% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters3%9% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters9%
Fastball · 58 pitches · catcher's view
10% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters10%3% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters3%3% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters3%10% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters10%7% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters7%3% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters3%5% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters5%3% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters3%5% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters5%21% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters21%2% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters2%21% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters21%5% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters5%
Sinker · 58 pitches · catcher's view
4% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters4%4% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters4%0% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters8% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters8%4% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters4%4% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters4%0% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters0% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters0% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters21% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters21%38% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters38%0% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters17% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters17%
Cutter · 24 pitches · catcher's view

Share of his pitches in each spot; darker is more. Last 90 days.

Griffin Conine · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .484 shrunk (raw .799 on 8 PA) · league .274 · 36 pitches seen.484xwOBA .344 shrunk (raw .408 on 7 PA) · league .307 · 26 pitches seen.344xwOBA .309 shrunk (raw .400 on 6 PA) · league .263 · 15 pitches seen.309xwOBA .340 shrunk (raw .339 on 15 PA) · league .342 · 58 pitches seen.340xwOBA .444 shrunk (raw .485 on 17 PA) · league .386 · 42 pitches seen.444xwOBA .506 shrunk (raw .728 on 10 PA) · league .321 · 31 pitches seen.506xwOBA .263 shrunk (raw .239 on 23 PA) · league .308 · 50 pitches seen.263xwOBA .306 shrunk (raw .272 on 16 PA) · league .351 · 51 pitches seen.306xwOBA .388 shrunk (raw .503 on 10 PA) · league .292 · 33 pitches seen.388xwOBA .390 shrunk (raw .396 on 26 PA) · league .377 · 145 pitches seen.390xwOBA .207 shrunk (raw .140 on 12 PA) · league .274 · 44 pitches seen.207xwOBA .267 shrunk (raw .269 on 31 PA) · league .263 · 140 pitches seen.267xwOBA .325 shrunk (raw .343 on 34 PA) · league .274 · 171 pitches seen.325
vs RHP · 842 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 25% of 24 swings · league 22%25%Whiff 32% of 22 swings · league 20%32%Whiff 0% of 9 swings · league 19%0%Whiff 11% of 35 swings · league 10%11%Whiff 19% of 32 swings · league 9%19%Whiff 17% of 24 swings · league 11%17%Whiff 30% of 33 swings · league 14%30%Whiff 30% of 33 swings · league 13%30%Whiff 20% of 20 swings · league 17%20%Whiff 50% of 38 swings · league 28%50%Whiff 35% of 23 swings · league 24%35%Whiff 57% of 49 swings · league 32%57%Whiff 62% of 53 swings · league 49%62%
vs RHP · 842 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 67% of 36 pitches · league 62%67%Swings at 85% of 26 pitches · league 72%85%Swings at 60% of 15 pitches · league 66%60%Swings at 60% of 58 pitches · league 70%60%Swings at 76% of 42 pitches · league 76%76%Swings at 77% of 31 pitches · league 70%77%Swings at 66% of 50 pitches · league 65%66%Swings at 65% of 51 pitches · league 68%65%Swings at 61% of 33 pitches · league 60%61%Swings at 26% of 145 pitches · league 24%26%Swings at 52% of 44 pitches · league 34%52%Swings at 35% of 140 pitches · league 40%35%Swings at 31% of 171 pitches · league 32%31%
vs RHP · 842 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Griffin Conine against each of JR Ritchie's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Curveball27%83.0-13″ / -12″.307.28539.4%30.4%34About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Sinker21%94.3+16″ / +6″.382.36021.2%13.2%65About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Fastball19%94.7+9″ / +14″.378.35626.8%17.5%80About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Changeup17%88.0+14″ / +0″.317.29642.7%28.2%57About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Cutter9%89.0-2″ / +7″.372.35032.5%21.9%61About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Slider6%84.8-4″ / +0″.344.32238.0%29.7%54About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Griffin Conine · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G514.385.429.615.450.29128.6%7.1%41.4%89.7106.911.1%44.4%11.1%
Last 15 G1543.317.349.561.390.34830.2%4.7%33.7%87.9110.817.9%39.3%39.3%
Last 30 G3085.247.353.384.332.31128.2%11.8%33.5%88.5111.710.2%38.8%32.7%
90 days75216.270.375.541.399.36830.1%13.0%35.2%92.1115.015.0%50.8%37.5%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 120 balls in play
Ground 42%Line drive 21%Fly ball 26%Pop-up 12%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G25.200.200.200.180.4810.0%0.0%15.4%77.9106.020.0%20.0%20.0%
Last 15 G712.250.250.333.254.36125.0%0.0%28.6%84.6114.222.2%33.3%55.6%
Last 30 G1728.259.286.407.302.36125.0%3.6%26.7%86.3114.215.0%40.0%50.0%
90 days3354.255.296.333.282.33127.8%3.7%27.7%88.8114.28.3%38.9%52.8%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 36 balls in play
Ground 36%Line drive 28%Fly ball 31%Pop-up 6%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G519.333.368.500.379.34121.1%5.3%33.3%85.5106.914.3%35.7%14.3%
Last 15 G1555.302.327.509.360.35129.1%3.6%32.5%87.1114.218.9%37.8%43.2%
Last 30 G30113.250.336.390.325.32327.4%9.7%31.7%87.9114.211.6%39.1%37.7%
90 days76270.267.359.496.376.36029.6%11.1%33.5%91.3115.013.5%48.1%41.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 156 balls in play
Ground 40%Line drive 22%Fly ball 27%Pop-up 10%
Griffin Conine · percentile ranksvs 228 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormCold
Contact rating94Top tier
Last 100 pitches88trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.378 / .377results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit8/12
2+ total bases5/12
Home run3/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPSinker93.899.85.551Single
Sep 25RHPFastball98.2102.4281.330Home run
Sep 25LHPCurveball81.565.6-47.189Out
Sep 24RHPSlider91.279.6-35.040Out
Sep 23RHPSplitter82.785.5-5.130Single
Sep 23RHPCurveball81.492.90.365Single
Sep 22LHPSinker92.174.2-2.067Out
Sep 22LHPFastball91.0106.0221.415Out
Sep 22RHPChangeup95.461.9-51.249Out
Sep 22LHPSweeper85.778.737.045Out
Sep 22LHPSweeper81.465.135.691Single
Sep 20RHPCutter89.2106.92.543Single
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25425110
Sep 24100000
Sep 23422002
Sep 22611001
Sep 20411001
Sep 19114100
Sep 18400001
Sep 16500003
Sep 15214100
Sep 14411003

Two strikes

JR Ritchie ATL · RHPwith two strikes
JR Ritchie with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Curveball31%45%21.6%21.8%20.7%
Changeup16%21%38.5%24.0%18.4%
Fastball19%17%36.4%28.6%18.3%
Sinker26%10%25.0%25.0%17.7%
Cutter8%6%20.0%14.3%18.7%
Slider1%2%0.0%50.0%21.4%
Griffin Conine bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Griffin Conine with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Misses his two-strike stuff more than most
With two strikesHimLeague
K%52.9%41.3%
Whiff%32.3%21.6%
Contact%67.7%78.4%
Chase%40.2%39.4%
wOBA.250.246
Whiff vs his put-away shapes35.2%24.1%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeAPower type
wOBA.358
K%28.9%
BB%10.6%
Whiff%15.5%
Barrel%7.3%
Hard-hit%28.0%
Avg EV91.2

Against right-handers, last 90 days

214 PA
wOBA.392
xwOBA vs this mix.364against pitches like his
RV/1001.58
Hard-hit%28.2%
K%29.2%
BB%11.0%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
JR RitchieRHP · ATL vs MIA
4.5projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 7 · 21.3 batters over 4.9 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 34.2%34%≤34 strikeouts: 18.8%19%45 strikeouts: 17.0%17%56 strikeouts: 12.8%13%67 strikeouts: 8.3%8%78 strikeouts: 4.7%5%89+ strikeouts: 4.2%4%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 47% (red bars) · under: 53%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%23.8%
BB%13.1%
Whiff%9.1%
Velo89.3
BTB Stuff97
Location99
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff%
Curveball31%10383.013.7%
Sinker24%8694.14.4%
Fastball23%10695.17.0%
Changeup18%8887.411.9%
Cutter5%10588.95.6%
Last 3 startsStable
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 228636%13%9%.309
Sep 168223%11%36%.577
Aug 28120%6%35%.320

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

JR Ritchie ATL · RHPvsMIA lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

3 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.8%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameATL @ MIA →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Griffin Conine: every projection we've made →