MLBengine v14
← ATL at MIA, Sep 27, 2026
2:10 PM CT · loanDepot park · lineup projected
Hitter · MIA · batting 3Heriberto Hernández
Bats rightTalent grade BPowerCold
.344wOBA vs RHP.322xwOBA vs his mix3.8expected PA
Starter · ATLJR Ritchie
Throws rightBTB Stuff 97Stable
4.5projected K24%K%2.7trips vs this hitter
JR Ritchie's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Curveball: 27% usage, 83.0 mph, -13.2″ arm side, -11.8″ rise. Heriberto Hernández: wOBA .294 vs league .281 (about even).Curveball 27%Sinker: 21% usage, 94.3 mph, +15.8″ arm side, +6.4″ rise. Heriberto Hernández: wOBA .357 vs league .344 (about even).Sinker 21%Fastball: 19% usage, 94.7 mph, +9.2″ arm side, +14.3″ rise. Heriberto Hernández: wOBA .357 vs league .345 (about even).Fastball 19%Changeup: 17% usage, 88.0 mph, +13.9″ arm side, +0.2″ rise. Heriberto Hernández: wOBA .319 vs league .308 (about even).Changeup 17%Cutter: 9% usage, 89.0 mph, -1.7″ arm side, +7.2″ rise. Heriberto Hernández: wOBA .324 vs league .312 (about even).Cutter 9%Slider: 6% usage, 84.8 mph, -4.1″ arm side, +0.4″ rise. Heriberto Hernández: wOBA .307 vs league .294 (about even).Slider 6%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Heriberto Hernández's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Heriberto Hernández's last 40 balls in playHit (12)Out (28)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 94.4 mph at -15°Out: 97.1 mph at 80°Single: 101.4 mph at 8°Out: 96.0 mph at 35°Out: 100.8 mph at 37°Out: 84.3 mph at -17°Out: 95.1 mph at -20°Out: 81.1 mph at -49°Out: 101.7 mph at -22°Out: 99.9 mph at 40°Single: 107.5 mph at 6°Out: 94.7 mph at 21°Out: 101.8 mph at -14°Out: 94.5 mph at 59°Out: 75.9 mph at 0°Single: 72.3 mph at 35°Out: 94.2 mph at 18°Single: 103.7 mph at 9°Out: 96.6 mph at 43°Single: 98.2 mph at -14°Single: 103.7 mph at 7°Single: 85.3 mph at 18°Single: 85.6 mph at 15°Out: 83.3 mph at -31°Out: 74.7 mph at 1°Single: 102.1 mph at -8°Out: 78.8 mph at 32°Out: 74.4 mph at -30°Single: 103.1 mph at 4°Out: 87.5 mph at 73°Out: 60.7 mph at -18°Single: 41.5 mph at -73°Single: 94.8 mph at 14°Out: 103.0 mph at 45°Out: 83.5 mph at -37°Out: 92.5 mph at 31°Out: 85.0 mph at 43°Out: 87.7 mph at -1°Out: 100.9 mph at -23°Out: 104.5 mph at 7°
45% hit 95+ mph23% in the sweet spot30% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit54.1%58.3%-4.1
2+ total bases31.3%35.7%-4.3
Home run12.8%16.9%-4.1
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-3.2
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
-1.0
2+ total bases
Starter
-3.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
-1.4
Home run
Starter
-2.5
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
-1.7

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Heriberto Hernández hits
Where they meet

.305 xwOBA for Heriberto Hernández in the spots JR Ritchie throws to righties

The average hitter in those same spots: .308 (-3 points). His best spot against righties is up-left, and JR Ritchie puts 6% of his pitches there. Context only; the projection reads pitch type, not location.

JR Ritchie · where he throws to right-handed hitters
6% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing6%7% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 29% per swing7%6% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 50% per swing6%5% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing5%8% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing8%5% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 17% per swing5%2% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing2%5% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 13% per swing5%8% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 20% per swing8%11% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing11%7% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 67% per swing7%3% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing3%28% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 30% per swing28%
All · 195 pitches · catcher's view
3% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters3%6% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters6%1% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters1%8% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters8%7% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters7%7% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters7%1% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters1%7% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters7%8% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters8%8% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters8%1% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters1%1% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters1%40% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters40%
Curveball · 72 pitches · catcher's view
9% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters9%6% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters6%6% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters6%4% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters4%10% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters10%4% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters4%2% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters2%4% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters4%4% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters4%15% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters15%7% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters7%6% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters6%22% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters22%
Sinker · 68 pitches · catcher's view
7% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters7%7% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters7%16% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters16%0% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters3% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters3%0% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters7% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters7%0% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters13% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters13%13% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters13%23% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters23%3% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters3%10% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters10%
Fastball · 31 pitches · catcher's view

Share of his pitches in each spot; darker is more. Last 90 days.

Heriberto Hernández · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .364 shrunk (raw .498 on 8 PA) · league .274 · 39 pitches seen.364xwOBA .290 shrunk (raw .264 on 8 PA) · league .307 · 43 pitches seen.290xwOBA .237 shrunk (raw .198 on 8 PA) · league .263 · 35 pitches seen.237xwOBA .234 shrunk (raw .141 on 14 PA) · league .342 · 36 pitches seen.234xwOBA .379 shrunk (raw .376 on 24 PA) · league .386 · 52 pitches seen.379xwOBA .410 shrunk (raw .444 on 31 PA) · league .321 · 60 pitches seen.410xwOBA .226 shrunk (raw .117 on 9 PA) · league .308 · 31 pitches seen.226xwOBA .381 shrunk (raw .409 on 13 PA) · league .351 · 51 pitches seen.381xwOBA .242 shrunk (raw .212 on 20 PA) · league .292 · 72 pitches seen.242xwOBA .406 shrunk (raw .423 on 20 PA) · league .377 · 91 pitches seen.406xwOBA .331 shrunk (raw .394 on 11 PA) · league .274 · 72 pitches seen.331xwOBA .286 shrunk (raw .309 on 12 PA) · league .263 · 75 pitches seen.286xwOBA .246 shrunk (raw .238 on 43 PA) · league .274 · 281 pitches seen.246
vs RHP · 938 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 30% of 23 swings · league 22%30%Whiff 40% of 38 swings · league 20%40%Whiff 35% of 23 swings · league 19%35%Whiff 14% of 28 swings · league 10%14%Whiff 14% of 42 swings · league 9%14%Whiff 11% of 46 swings · league 11%11%Whiff 11% of 18 swings · league 14%11%Whiff 17% of 30 swings · league 13%17%Whiff 35% of 43 swings · league 17%35%Whiff 38% of 21 swings · league 28%38%Whiff 23% of 22 swings · league 24%23%Whiff 47% of 17 swings · league 32%47%Whiff 65% of 63 swings · league 49%65%
vs RHP · 938 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 59% of 39 pitches · league 62%59%Swings at 88% of 43 pitches · league 72%88%Swings at 66% of 35 pitches · league 66%66%Swings at 78% of 36 pitches · league 70%78%Swings at 81% of 52 pitches · league 76%81%Swings at 77% of 60 pitches · league 70%77%Swings at 58% of 31 pitches · league 65%58%Swings at 59% of 51 pitches · league 68%59%Swings at 60% of 72 pitches · league 60%60%Swings at 23% of 91 pitches · league 24%23%Swings at 31% of 72 pitches · league 34%31%Swings at 23% of 75 pitches · league 40%23%Swings at 22% of 281 pitches · league 32%22%
vs RHP · 938 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Heriberto Hernández against each of JR Ritchie's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Curveball27%83.0-13″ / -12″.294.28133.4%30.4%26About league average vs these
Sinker21%94.3+16″ / +6″.357.34418.3%11.8%137About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Fastball19%94.7+9″ / +14″.357.34527.3%18.3%158About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Changeup17%88.0+14″ / +0″.319.30842.9%31.9%41About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Cutter9%89.0-2″ / +7″.324.31238.8%28.7%75About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Slider6%84.8-4″ / +0″.307.29435.6%32.8%77About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Heriberto Hernández · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G515.083.267.083.214.2946.7%20.0%17.4%92.6101.80.0%40.0%20.0%
Last 15 G1455.239.364.239.317.31021.8%16.4%26.8%88.7104.53.0%36.4%27.3%
Last 30 G2995.225.347.375.354.32226.3%14.7%27.7%88.1106.95.6%37.0%31.5%
90 days73223.219.314.408.342.31630.9%11.2%31.2%89.6109.211.1%46.8%30.2%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 126 balls in play
Ground 46%Line drive 17%Fly ball 27%Pop-up 10%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G37.143.143.143.129.21928.6%0.0%23.1%100.1107.50.0%100.0%0.0%
Last 15 G716.125.125.125.112.29918.8%0.0%20.6%99.8107.57.7%84.6%15.4%
Last 30 G1843.205.279.359.283.40316.3%7.0%25.9%94.9111.321.9%56.2%25.0%
90 days4494.244.340.537.374.41321.3%11.7%27.7%94.0111.319.4%48.4%35.5%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 62 balls in play
Ground 44%Line drive 16%Fly ball 32%Pop-up 8%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G522.105.227.105.186.26913.6%13.6%19.4%95.1107.50.0%60.0%13.3%
Last 15 G1571.210.310.210.270.30821.1%12.7%25.2%91.8107.54.3%50.0%23.9%
Last 30 G30138.218.326.370.331.34823.2%12.3%27.0%90.6111.311.6%44.2%29.1%
90 days74317.227.322.446.351.34528.1%11.4%30.2%91.0111.313.8%47.3%31.9%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 188 balls in play
Ground 45%Line drive 17%Fly ball 29%Pop-up 10%
Heriberto Hernández · percentile ranksvs 228 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormCold
Contact rating87Excellent
Last 100 pitches7trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.355 / .361results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit9/12
2+ total bases1/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPSinker94.294.4-15.152Out
Sep 25LHPFastball94.897.180.010Out
Sep 25RHPFastball99.4101.48.628Single
Sep 25RHPSinker94.696.035.313Out
Sep 24LHPFastball94.4100.837.521Out
Sep 24RHPSinker100.484.3-17.066Force out
Sep 24LHPFastball94.395.1-20.117Double play
Sep 23RHPFastball92.281.1-49.157Out
Sep 23RHPFastball94.1101.7-22.105Out
Sep 22LHPFastball91.999.940.303Out
Sep 22LHPFastball92.1107.56.584Single
Sep 22RHPSweeper86.694.721.278Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25411000
Sep 24400001
Sep 23400020
Sep 22611011
Sep 20400001
Sep 19611022
Sep 18411002
Sep 16544001
Sep 15511001
Sep 14511011

Two strikes

JR Ritchie ATL · RHPwith two strikes
JR Ritchie with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Curveball31%45%21.6%21.8%20.7%
Changeup16%21%38.5%24.0%18.4%
Fastball19%17%36.4%28.6%18.3%
Sinker26%10%25.0%25.0%17.7%
Cutter8%6%20.0%14.3%18.7%
Slider1%2%0.0%50.0%21.4%
Heriberto Hernández bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Heriberto Hernández with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Misses his two-strike stuff more than most
With two strikesHimLeague
K%49.5%43.3%
Whiff%29.2%23.5%
Contact%70.8%76.5%
Chase%31.5%39.4%
wOBA.240.235
Whiff vs his put-away shapes31.1%25.2%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeBPower type
wOBA.353
K%27.4%
BB%11.2%
Whiff%12.9%
Barrel%7.8%
Hard-hit%27.7%
Avg EV90.8

Against right-handers, last 90 days

220 PA
wOBA.344
xwOBA vs this mix.322against pitches like his
RV/1000.29
Hard-hit%26.5%
K%29.4%
BB%11.3%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
JR RitchieRHP · ATL vs MIA
4.5projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 7 · 21.3 batters over 4.9 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 34.2%34%≤34 strikeouts: 18.8%19%45 strikeouts: 17.0%17%56 strikeouts: 12.8%13%67 strikeouts: 8.3%8%78 strikeouts: 4.7%5%89+ strikeouts: 4.2%4%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 47% (red bars) · under: 53%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%23.8%
BB%13.1%
Whiff%9.1%
Velo89.3
BTB Stuff97
Location99
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff%
Curveball31%10383.013.7%
Sinker24%8694.14.4%
Fastball23%10695.17.0%
Changeup18%8887.411.9%
Cutter5%10588.95.6%
Last 3 startsStable
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 228636%13%9%.309
Sep 168223%11%36%.577
Aug 28120%6%35%.320

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

JR Ritchie ATL · RHPvsMIA lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

3 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.8%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameATL @ MIA →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Heriberto Hernández: every projection we've made →