MLBengine v14
← ATL at MIA, Sep 27, 2026
2:10 PM CT · loanDepot park · lineup projected
Hitter · MIA · batting 2Jakob Marsee
Bats leftTalent grade BContactNormal
.370wOBA vs RHP.327xwOBA vs his mix3.9expected PA
Starter · ATLJR Ritchie
Throws rightBTB Stuff 97Stable
4.5projected K24%K%2.7trips vs this hitter
JR Ritchie's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Curveball: 27% usage, 83.0 mph, -13.2″ arm side, -11.8″ rise. Jakob Marsee: wOBA .288 vs league .285 (about even).Curveball 27%Sinker: 21% usage, 94.3 mph, +15.8″ arm side, +6.4″ rise. Jakob Marsee: wOBA .362 vs league .360 (about even).Sinker 21%Fastball: 19% usage, 94.7 mph, +9.2″ arm side, +14.3″ rise. Jakob Marsee: wOBA .358 vs league .356 (about even).Fastball 19%Changeup: 17% usage, 88.0 mph, +13.9″ arm side, +0.2″ rise. Jakob Marsee: wOBA .300 vs league .296 (about even).Changeup 17%Cutter: 9% usage, 89.0 mph, -1.7″ arm side, +7.2″ rise. Jakob Marsee: wOBA .352 vs league .350 (about even).Cutter 9%Slider: 6% usage, 84.8 mph, -4.1″ arm side, +0.4″ rise. Jakob Marsee: wOBA .325 vs league .322 (about even).Slider 6%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Jakob Marsee's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Jakob Marsee's last 40 balls in playHit (19)Out (21)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 101.5 mph at 22°Out: 67.3 mph at -44°Single: 90.5 mph at 15°Triple: 98.7 mph at 28°Single: 85.2 mph at 18°Out: 75.0 mph at 47°Out: 94.4 mph at -1°Out: 78.1 mph at 60°Out: 92.3 mph at 40°Single: 93.2 mph at 12°Out: 60.6 mph at 78°Out: 90.0 mph at 82°Single: 94.7 mph at 11°Single: 71.2 mph at 37°Out: 70.8 mph at -19°Single: 99.7 mph at 2°Single: 84.1 mph at 18°Out: 88.1 mph at -7°Home run: 103.9 mph at 29°Double: 96.6 mph at 21°Out: 59.1 mph at 79°Out: 72.0 mph at 45°Home run: 96.3 mph at 30°Single: 89.1 mph at 12°Out: 77.4 mph at 29°Triple: 96.3 mph at 24°Out: 97.5 mph at 46°Out: 76.0 mph at 27°Out: 91.1 mph at 73°Single: 40.6 mph at -61°Out: 97.6 mph at -27°Out: 29.7 mph at -24°Out: 64.9 mph at -22°Single: 100.8 mph at 14°Out: 97.8 mph at -29°Single: 74.3 mph at 23°Out: 99.2 mph at 65°Single: 67.5 mph at 12°Single: 101.3 mph at 5°Single: 53.0 mph at 38°
33% hit 95+ mph43% in the sweet spot48% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit59.7%61.7%-2.0
2+ total bases32.0%33.9%-1.9
Home run7.8%8.6%-0.8
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-1.4
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.0
Park
-0.6
2+ total bases
Starter
-0.9
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.0
Park
-1.0
Home run
Starter
+0.4
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
-1.1

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Jakob Marsee hits
Where they meet

.327 xwOBA for Jakob Marsee in the spots JR Ritchie throws to lefties

The average hitter in those same spots: .310 (+18 points). His best spot against righties is down and right, outside, and JR Ritchie puts 18% of his pitches there. Context only; the projection reads pitch type, not location.

JR Ritchie · where he throws to left-handed hitters
5% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 40% per swing5%4% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 30% per swing4%3% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 33% per swing3%7% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 23% per swing7%6% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing6%3% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing3%5% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 17% per swing5%5% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 18% per swing5%3% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing3%18% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing18%8% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing8%16% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 40% per swing16%18% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 48% per swing18%
All · 286 pitches · catcher's view
1% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters1%1% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters1%0% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters9% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters9%6% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters6%3% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters3%6% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters6%12% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters12%4% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters4%14% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters14%1% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters1%10% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters10%32% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters32%
Curveball · 78 pitches · catcher's view
2% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters2%0% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters0% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters3% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters3%5% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters5%2% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters2%6% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters6%6% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters6%5% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters5%18% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters18%0% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters34% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters34%21% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters21%
Changeup · 67 pitches · catcher's view
9% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters9%14% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters14%10% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters10%5% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters5%5% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters5%3% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters3%2% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters2%0% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters0% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters19% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters19%21% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters21%3% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters3%9% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters9%
Fastball · 58 pitches · catcher's view
10% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters10%3% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters3%3% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters3%10% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters10%7% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters7%3% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters3%5% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters5%3% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters3%5% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters5%21% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters21%2% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters2%21% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters21%5% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters5%
Sinker · 58 pitches · catcher's view
4% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters4%4% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters4%0% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters8% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters8%4% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters4%4% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters4%0% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters0% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters0% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters21% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters21%38% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters38%0% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters17% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters17%
Cutter · 24 pitches · catcher's view

Share of his pitches in each spot; darker is more. Last 90 days.

Jakob Marsee · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .183 shrunk (raw .092 on 12 PA) · league .274 · 33 pitches seen.183xwOBA .363 shrunk (raw .430 on 10 PA) · league .307 · 28 pitches seen.363xwOBA .256 shrunk (raw .243 on 7 PA) · league .263 · 19 pitches seen.256xwOBA .252 shrunk (raw .184 on 16 PA) · league .342 · 59 pitches seen.252xwOBA .352 shrunk (raw .340 on 34 PA) · league .386 · 60 pitches seen.352xwOBA .341 shrunk (raw .353 on 21 PA) · league .321 · 34 pitches seen.341xwOBA .292 shrunk (raw .267 on 8 PA) · league .308 · 40 pitches seen.292xwOBA .347 shrunk (raw .343 on 14 PA) · league .351 · 30 pitches seen.347xwOBA .346 shrunk (raw .392 on 14 PA) · league .292 · 52 pitches seen.346xwOBA .396 shrunk (raw .417 on 11 PA) · league .377 · 123 pitches seen.396xwOBA .266 shrunk (raw .260 on 15 PA) · league .274 · 54 pitches seen.266xwOBA .276 shrunk (raw .286 on 15 PA) · league .263 · 92 pitches seen.276xwOBA .397 shrunk (raw .449 on 28 PA) · league .274 · 141 pitches seen.397
vs RHP · 765 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 21% of 19 swings · league 22%21%Whiff 14% of 21 swings · league 20%14%Whiff 0% of 13 swings · league 19%0%Whiff 3% of 33 swings · league 10%3%Whiff 0% of 50 swings · league 9%0%Whiff 7% of 30 swings · league 11%7%Whiff 9% of 22 swings · league 14%9%Whiff 5% of 19 swings · league 13%5%Whiff 4% of 25 swings · league 17%4%Whiff 0% of 6 swings · league 28%0%Whiff 10% of 21 swings · league 24%10%Whiff 42% of 24 swings · league 32%42%Whiff 38% of 34 swings · league 49%38%
vs RHP · 765 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 58% of 33 pitches · league 62%58%Swings at 75% of 28 pitches · league 72%75%Swings at 68% of 19 pitches · league 66%68%Swings at 56% of 59 pitches · league 70%56%Swings at 83% of 60 pitches · league 76%83%Swings at 88% of 34 pitches · league 70%88%Swings at 55% of 40 pitches · league 65%55%Swings at 63% of 30 pitches · league 68%63%Swings at 48% of 52 pitches · league 60%48%Swings at 5% of 123 pitches · league 24%5%Swings at 39% of 54 pitches · league 34%39%Swings at 26% of 92 pitches · league 40%26%Swings at 24% of 141 pitches · league 32%24%
vs RHP · 765 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Jakob Marsee against each of JR Ritchie's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Curveball27%83.0-13″ / -12″.288.28520.7%30.4%32About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Sinker21%94.3+16″ / +6″.362.3606.0%13.2%116About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Fastball19%94.7+9″ / +14″.358.3567.9%17.5%209About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Changeup17%88.0+14″ / +0″.300.29628.0%28.2%73About league average vs these
Cutter9%89.0-2″ / +7″.352.35010.8%21.9%105About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Slider6%84.8-4″ / +0″.325.32219.5%29.7%69About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Jakob Marsee · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G511.100.182.300.209.21227.3%9.1%23.8%85.2101.514.3%28.6%28.6%
Last 15 G1540.371.450.714.488.36415.0%12.5%15.3%86.1103.96.9%41.4%48.3%
Last 30 G3082.362.463.652.482.38913.4%14.6%13.1%87.4108.76.9%39.7%51.7%
90 days69208.272.370.461.372.32814.4%12.5%12.3%86.6108.74.7%34.5%40.5%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 148 balls in play
Ground 35%Line drive 28%Fly ball 22%Pop-up 16%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G48.429.500.429.425.47525.0%12.5%5.9%86.194.40.0%0.0%60.0%
Last 15 G1223.421.500.421.432.38826.1%4.3%12.5%78.499.70.0%14.3%35.7%
Last 30 G1939.281.395.312.338.33228.2%5.1%17.2%82.3100.10.0%27.3%40.9%
90 days3970.264.418.321.359.35624.3%12.9%18.2%82.3104.10.0%34.2%39.5%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 38 balls in play
Ground 53%Line drive 34%Fly ball 11%Pop-up 3%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G519.235.316.353.300.32226.3%10.5%15.8%85.6101.58.3%16.7%41.7%
Last 15 G1563.389.468.611.468.37319.0%9.5%14.3%83.6103.94.7%32.6%44.2%
Last 30 G30121.337.442.545.436.37118.2%11.6%14.5%86.0108.75.0%36.2%48.8%
90 days71278.270.382.429.369.33516.9%12.6%13.8%85.7108.73.8%34.4%40.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 186 balls in play
Ground 38%Line drive 29%Fly ball 20%Pop-up 13%
Jakob Marsee · percentile ranksvs 228 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating71Above average
Last 100 pitches58trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.365 / .338running 27 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit8/12
2+ total bases4/12
Home run2/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPSinker94.3101.522.675Out
Sep 25LHPSinker95.067.3-44.176Out
Sep 25LHPFastball94.590.515.916Single
Sep 25RHPSlider83.898.728.780Triple
Sep 24LHPFastball94.385.218.855Single
Sep 24RHPFastball100.475.047.144Out
Sep 24LHPFastball93.794.4-1.316Out
Sep 23RHPChangeup85.578.160.008Out
Sep 22RHPCurveball79.592.340.019Out
Sep 22LHPSlider85.793.212.836Single
Sep 20RHPCutter88.160.678.003Out
Sep 20RHPFastball99.890.082.003Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25424000
Sep 24411010
Sep 23400003
Sep 22311001
Sep 20400011
Sep 19533010
Sep 18411011
Sep 16426110
Sep 15400002
Sep 14438100

Two strikes

JR Ritchie ATL · RHPwith two strikes
JR Ritchie with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Curveball31%45%21.6%21.8%20.7%
Changeup16%21%38.5%24.0%18.4%
Fastball19%17%36.4%28.6%18.3%
Sinker26%10%25.0%25.0%17.7%
Cutter8%6%20.0%14.3%18.7%
Slider1%2%0.0%50.0%21.4%
Jakob Marsee bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Jakob Marsee with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%39.8%41.3%
Whiff%19.8%21.6%
Contact%80.2%78.4%
Chase%30.3%39.4%
wOBA.268.246
Whiff vs his put-away shapes22.1%24.1%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeBContact type
wOBA.369
K%17.5%
BB%11.8%
Whiff%6.4%
Barrel%3.3%
Hard-hit%24.0%
Avg EV86.3

Against right-handers, last 90 days

204 PA
wOBA.370
xwOBA vs this mix.327against pitches like his
RV/1001.18
Hard-hit%24.9%
K%15.4%
BB%12.2%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
JR RitchieRHP · ATL vs MIA
4.5projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 7 · 21.3 batters over 4.9 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 34.2%34%≤34 strikeouts: 18.8%19%45 strikeouts: 17.0%17%56 strikeouts: 12.8%13%67 strikeouts: 8.3%8%78 strikeouts: 4.7%5%89+ strikeouts: 4.2%4%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 47% (red bars) · under: 53%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%23.8%
BB%13.1%
Whiff%9.1%
Velo89.3
BTB Stuff97
Location99
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff%
Curveball31%10383.013.7%
Sinker24%8694.14.4%
Fastball23%10695.17.0%
Changeup18%8887.411.9%
Cutter5%10588.95.6%
Last 3 startsStable
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 228636%13%9%.309
Sep 168223%11%36%.577
Aug 28120%6%35%.320

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

JR Ritchie ATL · RHPvsMIA lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

3 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.8%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameATL @ MIA →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Jakob Marsee: every projection we've made →