MLBengine v14
← ATL at MIA, Sep 27, 2026
2:10 PM CT · loanDepot park · lineup projected
Hitter · MIA · batting 9Jared Serna
Bats rightTalent grade AvgBalancedCold
.289wOBA vs RHP.278xwOBA vs his mix3.3expected PA
Starter · ATLJR Ritchie
Throws rightBTB Stuff 97Stable
4.5projected K24%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
JR Ritchie's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Curveball: 27% usage, 83.0 mph, -13.2″ arm side, -11.8″ rise. Jared Serna: wOBA .279 vs league .281 (about even).Curveball 27%Sinker: 21% usage, 94.3 mph, +15.8″ arm side, +6.4″ rise. Jared Serna: wOBA .342 vs league .344 (about even).Sinker 21%Fastball: 19% usage, 94.7 mph, +9.2″ arm side, +14.3″ rise. Jared Serna: wOBA .343 vs league .345 (about even).Fastball 19%Changeup: 17% usage, 88.0 mph, +13.9″ arm side, +0.2″ rise. Jared Serna: wOBA .306 vs league .308 (about even).Changeup 17%Cutter: 9% usage, 89.0 mph, -1.7″ arm side, +7.2″ rise. Jared Serna: wOBA .310 vs league .312 (about even).Cutter 9%Slider: 6% usage, 84.8 mph, -4.1″ arm side, +0.4″ rise. Jared Serna: wOBA .292 vs league .294 (about even).Slider 6%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Jared Serna's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Jared Serna's last 17 balls in playHit (4)Out (13)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 83.0 mph at 66°Out: 76.7 mph at 60°Out: 90.5 mph at 44°Out: 93.9 mph at -31°Out: 86.3 mph at -11°Out: 95.9 mph at 25°Single: 75.4 mph at 9°Out: 82.9 mph at 38°Out: 69.9 mph at 84°Double: 106.4 mph at 19°Double: 83.9 mph at 14°Out: 96.3 mph at -27°Out: 95.5 mph at -17°Out: 109.2 mph at -21°Out: 96.8 mph at 18°Single: 98.2 mph at -8°Out: 54.7 mph at -39°
41% hit 95+ mph29% in the sweet spot24% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit47.8%50.3%-2.5
2+ total bases24.1%26.7%-2.5
Home run6.3%8.5%-2.2
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-2.1
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
-0.6
2+ total bases
Starter
-1.9
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.2
Park
-0.8
Home run
Starter
-1.4
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
-0.9

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Jared Serna hits
Where they meet

.302 xwOBA for Jared Serna in the spots JR Ritchie throws to righties

The average hitter in those same spots: .308 (-5 points).Context only; the projection reads pitch type, not location.

JR Ritchie · where he throws to right-handed hitters
6% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing6%7% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 29% per swing7%6% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 50% per swing6%5% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing5%8% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing8%5% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 17% per swing5%2% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing2%5% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 13% per swing5%8% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 20% per swing8%11% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing11%7% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 67% per swing7%3% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing3%28% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 30% per swing28%
All · 195 pitches · catcher's view
3% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters3%6% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters6%1% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters1%8% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters8%7% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters7%7% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters7%1% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters1%7% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters7%8% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters8%8% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters8%1% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters1%1% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters1%40% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters40%
Curveball · 72 pitches · catcher's view
9% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters9%6% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters6%6% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters6%4% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters4%10% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters10%4% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters4%2% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters2%4% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters4%4% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters4%15% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters15%7% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters7%6% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters6%22% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters22%
Sinker · 68 pitches · catcher's view
7% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters7%7% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters7%16% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters16%0% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters3% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters3%0% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters7% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters7%0% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters13% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters13%13% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters13%23% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters23%3% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters3%10% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters10%
Fastball · 31 pitches · catcher's view

Share of his pitches in each spot; darker is more. Last 90 days.

Jared Serna · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .274 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .274 · 1 pitches seenxwOBA .307 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .307 · 2 pitches seenxwOBA .243 shrunk (raw .000 on 1 PA) · league .263 · 2 pitches seen.243xwOBA .317 shrunk (raw .167 on 2 PA) · league .342 · 2 pitches seen.317xwOBA .383 shrunk (raw .363 on 2 PA) · league .386 · 5 pitches seen.383xwOBA .321 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .321 · 1 pitches seenxwOBA .308 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .308 · 0 pitches seenxwOBA .351 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .351 · 1 pitches seenxwOBA .270 shrunk (raw .003 on 1 PA) · league .292 · 2 pitches seen.270xwOBA .377 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .377 · 3 pitches seenxwOBA .274 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .274 · 0 pitches seenxwOBA .236 shrunk (raw .076 on 2 PA) · league .263 · 3 pitches seen.236xwOBA .274 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .274 · 5 pitches seen
vs RHP · 27 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff – of 0 swings · league 22%Whiff 100% of 2 swings · league 20%100%Whiff 50% of 2 swings · league 19%50%Whiff 0% of 2 swings · league 10%0%Whiff 0% of 4 swings · league 9%0%Whiff – of 0 swings · league 11%Whiff – of 0 swings · league 14%Whiff – of 0 swings · league 13%Whiff 0% of 1 swings · league 17%0%Whiff 0% of 1 swings · league 28%0%Whiff – of 0 swings · league 24%Whiff 50% of 2 swings · league 32%50%Whiff – of 0 swings · league 49%
vs RHP · 27 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 0% of 1 pitches · league 62%0%Swings at 100% of 2 pitches · league 72%100%Swings at 100% of 2 pitches · league 66%100%Swings at 100% of 2 pitches · league 70%100%Swings at 80% of 5 pitches · league 76%80%Swings at 0% of 1 pitches · league 70%0%Swings at – of 0 pitches · league 65%Swings at 0% of 1 pitches · league 68%0%Swings at 50% of 2 pitches · league 60%50%Swings at 33% of 3 pitches · league 24%33%Swings at – of 0 pitches · league 34%Swings at 67% of 3 pitches · league 40%67%Swings at 0% of 5 pitches · league 32%0%
vs RHP · 27 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Jared Serna against each of JR Ritchie's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Curveball27%83.0-13″ / -12″.279.28132.3%30.4%2Little history vs this shape
Sinker21%94.3+16″ / +6″.342.34411.9%11.8%4Little history vs this shape
Fastball19%94.7+9″ / +14″.343.34518.6%18.3%3Little history vs this shape
Changeup17%88.0+14″ / +0″.306.30832.4%31.9%2Little history vs this shape
Cutter9%89.0-2″ / +7″.310.31229.1%28.7%1Little history vs this shape
Slider6%84.8-4″ / +0″.292.29434.8%32.8%1Little history vs this shape
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Jared Serna · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G34.250.250.250.225.08425.0%0.0%37.5%78.483.00.0%0.0%33.3%
Last 15 G68.286.250.286.225.15225.0%0.0%28.6%80.898.20.0%33.3%33.3%
Last 30 G68.286.250.286.225.15225.0%0.0%28.6%80.898.20.0%33.3%33.3%
90 days68.286.250.286.225.15225.0%0.0%28.6%80.898.20.0%33.3%33.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 6 balls in play
Ground 50%Line drive 17%Fly ball 0%Pop-up 33%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G47.000.000.000.000.06928.6%0.0%15.4%89.995.90.0%20.0%20.0%
Last 15 G917.125.176.250.188.19829.4%5.9%25.7%91.9109.29.1%45.5%27.3%
Last 30 G917.125.176.250.188.19829.4%5.9%25.7%91.9109.29.1%45.5%27.3%
90 days917.125.176.250.188.19829.4%5.9%25.7%91.9109.29.1%45.5%27.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 11 balls in play
Ground 46%Line drive 18%Fly ball 27%Pop-up 9%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G511.091.091.091.082.07527.3%0.0%23.8%85.695.90.0%12.5%25.0%
Last 15 G1125.174.200.261.200.18328.0%4.0%26.5%88.0109.25.9%41.2%29.4%
Last 30 G1125.174.200.261.200.18328.0%4.0%26.5%88.0109.25.9%41.2%29.4%
90 days1125.174.200.261.200.18328.0%4.0%26.5%88.0109.25.9%41.2%29.4%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 17 balls in play
Ground 47%Line drive 18%Fly ball 18%Pop-up 18%
FormCold
Contact rating–percentile of xwOBA
Last 100 pitches–
wOBA / xwOBA.203 / .181running 23 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit3/11
2+ total bases1/11
Home run0/11

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPFastball94.083.066.003Out
Sep 25RHPSinker93.876.760.024Out
Sep 25LHPFastball91.790.544.014Out
Sep 24LHPFastball91.793.9-31.089Out
Sep 24LHPChangeup80.086.3-11.142Double play
Sep 24LHPFastball94.695.925.228Out
Sep 23RHPFastball95.575.49.310Single
Sep 15LHPCutter94.482.938.012Out
Sep 12LHPFastball95.869.984.003Out
Sep 8LHPSinker90.4106.419.835Double
Sep 8LHPChangeup79.983.914.855Double
Sep 4LHPSplitter82.996.3-27.147Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25300000
Sep 24300000
Sep 23111000
Sep 22200002
Sep 15200001
Sep 12100000
Sep 11300003
Sep 8324001
Sep 4200000
Sep 2411010

Two strikes

JR Ritchie ATL · RHPwith two strikes
JR Ritchie with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Curveball31%45%21.6%21.8%20.7%
Changeup16%21%38.5%24.0%18.4%
Fastball19%17%36.4%28.6%18.3%
Sinker26%10%25.0%25.0%17.7%
Cutter8%6%20.0%14.3%18.7%
Slider1%2%0.0%50.0%21.4%
Jared Serna bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Jared Serna with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Little two-strike history vs these shapes
With two strikesHimLeague
K%44.4%43.3%
Whiff%24.2%23.5%
Contact%75.8%76.5%
Chase%38.9%39.4%
wOBA.231.235
Whiff vs his put-away shapes26.0%25.2%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeAvgBalanced type
wOBA.307
K%23.6%
BB%7.6%
Whiff%11.0%
Barrel%4.9%
Hard-hit%26.2%
Avg EV88.4

Against right-handers, last 90 days

8 PA
wOBA.289
xwOBA vs this mix.278against pitches like his
RV/100-0.67
Hard-hit%26.1%
K%23.9%
BB%6.6%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
JR RitchieRHP · ATL vs MIA
4.5projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 7 · 21.3 batters over 4.9 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 34.2%34%≤34 strikeouts: 18.8%19%45 strikeouts: 17.0%17%56 strikeouts: 12.8%13%67 strikeouts: 8.3%8%78 strikeouts: 4.7%5%89+ strikeouts: 4.2%4%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 47% (red bars) · under: 53%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%23.8%
BB%13.1%
Whiff%9.1%
Velo89.3
BTB Stuff97
Location99
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff%
Curveball31%10383.013.7%
Sinker24%8694.14.4%
Fastball23%10695.17.0%
Changeup18%8887.411.9%
Cutter5%10588.95.6%
Last 3 startsStable
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 228636%13%9%.309
Sep 168223%11%36%.577
Aug 28120%6%35%.320

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

JR Ritchie ATL · RHPvsMIA lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

3 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.8%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameATL @ MIA →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Jared Serna: every projection we've made →