MLBengine v14
← ATL at MIA, Sep 27, 2026
2:10 PM CT · loanDepot park · lineup projected
Hitter · MIA · batting 4Javier Sanoja
Bats rightTalent grade CBalancedNormal
.377wOBA vs RHP.308xwOBA vs his mix3.8expected PA
Starter · ATLJR Ritchie
Throws rightBTB Stuff 97Stable
4.5projected K24%K%2.1trips vs this hitter
JR Ritchie's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Curveball: 27% usage, 83.0 mph, -13.2″ arm side, -11.8″ rise. Javier Sanoja: wOBA .294 vs league .281 (about even).Curveball 27%Sinker: 21% usage, 94.3 mph, +15.8″ arm side, +6.4″ rise. Javier Sanoja: wOBA .357 vs league .344 (about even).Sinker 21%Fastball: 19% usage, 94.7 mph, +9.2″ arm side, +14.3″ rise. Javier Sanoja: wOBA .357 vs league .345 (about even).Fastball 19%Changeup: 17% usage, 88.0 mph, +13.9″ arm side, +0.2″ rise. Javier Sanoja: wOBA .320 vs league .308 (about even).Changeup 17%Cutter: 9% usage, 89.0 mph, -1.7″ arm side, +7.2″ rise. Javier Sanoja: wOBA .324 vs league .312 (about even).Cutter 9%Slider: 6% usage, 84.8 mph, -4.1″ arm side, +0.4″ rise. Javier Sanoja: wOBA .307 vs league .294 (about even).Slider 6%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Javier Sanoja's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Javier Sanoja's last 40 balls in playHit (15)Out (25)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Single: 103.1 mph at 2°Single: 94.2 mph at 9°Out: 75.0 mph at -50°Out: 83.3 mph at -22°Out: 88.2 mph at 21°Out: 85.1 mph at -12°Out: 73.5 mph at 77°Single: 44.2 mph at -21°Double: 93.8 mph at 20°Single: 71.6 mph at 22°Out: 55.2 mph at -17°Single: 79.4 mph at 10°Single: 78.5 mph at 20°Out: 71.1 mph at 11°Out: 79.0 mph at 30°Home run: 100.7 mph at 29°Out: 97.5 mph at -4°Out: 88.9 mph at 21°Out: 96.7 mph at 21°Out: 90.3 mph at 7°Out: 77.8 mph at 68°Out: 82.9 mph at 54°Single: 105.7 mph at 2°Out: 75.9 mph at 56°Double: 99.5 mph at 1°Out: 81.9 mph at 35°Single: 96.3 mph at -5°Out: 68.3 mph at 73°Out: 73.4 mph at 62°Out: 92.7 mph at 50°Single: 90.9 mph at 16°Out: 96.3 mph at 45°Out: 99.8 mph at -12°Home run: 103.9 mph at 23°Triple: 97.9 mph at 26°Out: 49.5 mph at -58°Out: 89.4 mph at -16°Out: 100.1 mph at -3°Double: 77.6 mph at 20°Out: 76.6 mph at 36°
30% hit 95+ mph38% in the sweet spot38% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit68.0%68.5%-0.6
2+ total bases37.4%37.9%-0.5
Home run5.6%6.0%-0.4
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-0.2
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
-0.4
2+ total bases
Starter
+0.1
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.2
Park
-0.7
Home run
Starter
+0.4
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
-0.8

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Javier Sanoja hits
Where they meet

.291 xwOBA for Javier Sanoja in the spots JR Ritchie throws to righties

The average hitter in those same spots: .308 (-17 points). His best spot against righties is up-right, and JR Ritchie puts 6% of his pitches there. Context only; the projection reads pitch type, not location.

JR Ritchie · where he throws to right-handed hitters
6% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing6%7% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 29% per swing7%6% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 50% per swing6%5% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing5%8% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing8%5% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 17% per swing5%2% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing2%5% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 13% per swing5%8% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 20% per swing8%11% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing11%7% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 67% per swing7%3% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing3%28% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 30% per swing28%
All · 195 pitches · catcher's view
3% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters3%6% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters6%1% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters1%8% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters8%7% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters7%7% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters7%1% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters1%7% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters7%8% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters8%8% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters8%1% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters1%1% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters1%40% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters40%
Curveball · 72 pitches · catcher's view
9% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters9%6% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters6%6% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters6%4% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters4%10% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters10%4% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters4%2% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters2%4% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters4%4% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters4%15% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters15%7% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters7%6% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters6%22% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters22%
Sinker · 68 pitches · catcher's view
7% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters7%7% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters7%16% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters16%0% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters3% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters3%0% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters7% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters7%0% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters13% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters13%13% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters13%23% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters23%3% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters3%10% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters10%
Fastball · 31 pitches · catcher's view

Share of his pitches in each spot; darker is more. Last 90 days.

Javier Sanoja · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .278 shrunk (raw .288 on 5 PA) · league .274 · 18 pitches seen.278xwOBA .262 shrunk (raw .213 on 11 PA) · league .307 · 21 pitches seen.262xwOBA .315 shrunk (raw .378 on 10 PA) · league .263 · 23 pitches seen.315xwOBA .383 shrunk (raw .427 on 11 PA) · league .342 · 35 pitches seen.383xwOBA .309 shrunk (raw .277 on 29 PA) · league .386 · 60 pitches seen.309xwOBA .351 shrunk (raw .383 on 11 PA) · league .321 · 41 pitches seen.351xwOBA .336 shrunk (raw .404 on 5 PA) · league .308 · 23 pitches seen.336xwOBA .382 shrunk (raw .400 on 20 PA) · league .351 · 53 pitches seen.382xwOBA .315 shrunk (raw .328 on 20 PA) · league .292 · 43 pitches seen.315xwOBA .259 shrunk (raw .081 on 8 PA) · league .377 · 45 pitches seen.259xwOBA .291 shrunk (raw .306 on 13 PA) · league .274 · 54 pitches seen.291xwOBA .301 shrunk (raw .332 on 15 PA) · league .263 · 58 pitches seen.301xwOBA .250 shrunk (raw .243 on 38 PA) · league .274 · 213 pitches seen.250
vs RHP · 687 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 0% of 11 swings · league 22%0%Whiff 0% of 18 swings · league 20%0%Whiff 5% of 19 swings · league 19%5%Whiff 4% of 26 swings · league 10%4%Whiff 0% of 46 swings · league 9%0%Whiff 4% of 24 swings · league 11%4%Whiff 6% of 16 swings · league 14%6%Whiff 5% of 41 swings · league 13%5%Whiff 4% of 28 swings · league 17%4%Whiff 14% of 22 swings · league 28%14%Whiff 29% of 21 swings · league 24%29%Whiff 24% of 25 swings · league 32%24%Whiff 23% of 65 swings · league 49%23%
vs RHP · 687 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 61% of 18 pitches · league 62%61%Swings at 86% of 21 pitches · league 72%86%Swings at 83% of 23 pitches · league 66%83%Swings at 74% of 35 pitches · league 70%74%Swings at 77% of 60 pitches · league 76%77%Swings at 59% of 41 pitches · league 70%59%Swings at 70% of 23 pitches · league 65%70%Swings at 77% of 53 pitches · league 68%77%Swings at 65% of 43 pitches · league 60%65%Swings at 49% of 45 pitches · league 24%49%Swings at 39% of 54 pitches · league 34%39%Swings at 43% of 58 pitches · league 40%43%Swings at 31% of 213 pitches · league 32%31%
vs RHP · 687 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Javier Sanoja against each of JR Ritchie's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Curveball27%83.0-13″ / -12″.294.28112.6%30.4%27About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Sinker21%94.3+16″ / +6″.357.3444.7%11.8%119About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Fastball19%94.7+9″ / +14″.357.3457.3%18.3%172About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Changeup17%88.0+14″ / +0″.320.30811.4%31.9%34About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Cutter9%89.0-2″ / +7″.324.31212.2%28.7%110About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Slider6%84.8-4″ / +0″.307.29413.7%32.8%110About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Javier Sanoja · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G515.429.467.714.518.40013.3%6.7%4.0%84.9103.18.3%25.0%58.3%
Last 15 G1548.326.354.565.395.34112.5%4.2%15.2%88.3105.75.0%40.0%37.5%
Last 30 G3090.365.400.600.438.3578.9%5.6%12.6%88.9106.53.9%41.6%41.6%
90 days75198.303.338.511.380.3086.1%5.1%10.2%86.8108.44.0%33.7%37.1%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 175 balls in play
Ground 43%Line drive 23%Fly ball 21%Pop-up 13%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G36.333.333.333.300.2500.0%0.0%0.0%73.888.20.0%0.0%50.0%
Last 15 G1018.294.333.412.406.2860.0%5.6%3.8%80.499.80.0%12.5%31.2%
Last 30 G2139.278.333.389.354.3232.6%7.7%8.8%83.0106.70.0%17.6%35.3%
90 days4992.349.391.512.413.3497.6%6.5%11.0%85.7106.71.3%28.6%41.6%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 77 balls in play
Ground 39%Line drive 34%Fly ball 17%Pop-up 10%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G521.400.429.600.452.3559.5%4.8%2.9%81.2103.15.6%16.7%55.6%
Last 15 G1566.317.348.524.398.3279.1%4.5%12.7%86.0105.73.6%32.1%35.7%
Last 30 G30129.339.380.537.413.3477.0%6.2%11.7%87.1106.72.7%34.2%39.6%
90 days76290.318.355.511.390.3216.6%5.5%10.5%86.5108.43.2%32.1%38.5%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 252 balls in play
Ground 42%Line drive 27%Fly ball 19%Pop-up 12%
Javier Sanoja · percentile ranksvs 228 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating64Average
Last 100 pitches56trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.386 / .330running 56 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit10/12
2+ total bases7/12
Home run2/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPSlider87.1103.12.479Single
Sep 25RHPFastball98.394.29.579Single
Sep 25LHPSinker94.475.0-50.195Out
Sep 25RHPSlider86.283.3-22.069Out
Sep 24LHPChangeup80.488.221.398Out
Sep 24LHPChangeup81.285.1-12.086Out
Sep 24RHPSplitter90.873.577.000Out
Sep 24LHPFastball92.344.2-21.205Single
Sep 23RHPFastball93.893.820.342Double
Sep 23RHPSplitter83.471.622.880Single
Sep 23RHPSinker93.155.2-17.076Out
Sep 22LHPSplitter84.479.410.341Single
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25422000
Sep 24411000
Sep 23423001
Sep 22622011
Sep 20314100
Sep 19500011
Sep 18423000
Sep 16411001
Sep 15511000
Sep 14427100

Two strikes

JR Ritchie ATL · RHPwith two strikes
JR Ritchie with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Curveball31%45%21.6%21.8%20.7%
Changeup16%21%38.5%24.0%18.4%
Fastball19%17%36.4%28.6%18.3%
Sinker26%10%25.0%25.0%17.7%
Cutter8%6%20.0%14.3%18.7%
Slider1%2%0.0%50.0%21.4%
Javier Sanoja bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Javier Sanoja with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Makes contact on his two-strike stuff more than most
With two strikesHimLeague
K%26.0%43.3%
Whiff%12.0%23.5%
Contact%88.0%76.5%
Chase%45.4%39.4%
wOBA.252.235
Whiff vs his put-away shapes13.0%25.2%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeCBalanced type
wOBA.366
K%7.6%
BB%5.7%
Whiff%6.1%
Barrel%2.5%
Hard-hit%27.8%
Avg EV86.5

Against right-handers, last 90 days

197 PA
wOBA.377
xwOBA vs this mix.308against pitches like his
RV/1001.33
Hard-hit%28.9%
K%7.8%
BB%5.7%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
JR RitchieRHP · ATL vs MIA
4.5projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 7 · 21.3 batters over 4.9 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 34.2%34%≤34 strikeouts: 18.8%19%45 strikeouts: 17.0%17%56 strikeouts: 12.8%13%67 strikeouts: 8.3%8%78 strikeouts: 4.7%5%89+ strikeouts: 4.2%4%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 47% (red bars) · under: 53%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%23.8%
BB%13.1%
Whiff%9.1%
Velo89.3
BTB Stuff97
Location99
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff%
Curveball31%10383.013.7%
Sinker24%8694.14.4%
Fastball23%10695.17.0%
Changeup18%8887.411.9%
Cutter5%10588.95.6%
Last 3 startsStable
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 228636%13%9%.309
Sep 168223%11%36%.577
Aug 28120%6%35%.320

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

JR Ritchie ATL · RHPvsMIA lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

3 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.8%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameATL @ MIA →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Javier Sanoja: every projection we've made →