MLBengine v14
← ATL at MIA, Sep 27, 2026
2:10 PM CT · loanDepot park · lineup projected
Hitter · MIA · batting 8Joe Mack
Bats leftTalent grade DBalancedNormal
.315wOBA vs RHP.295xwOBA vs his mix3.4expected PA
Starter · ATLJR Ritchie
Throws rightBTB Stuff 97Stable
4.5projected K24%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
JR Ritchie's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Curveball: 27% usage, 83.0 mph, -13.2″ arm side, -11.8″ rise. Joe Mack: wOBA .279 vs league .285 (about even).Curveball 27%Sinker: 21% usage, 94.3 mph, +15.8″ arm side, +6.4″ rise. Joe Mack: wOBA .354 vs league .360 (about even).Sinker 21%Fastball: 19% usage, 94.7 mph, +9.2″ arm side, +14.3″ rise. Joe Mack: wOBA .351 vs league .356 (about even).Fastball 19%Changeup: 17% usage, 88.0 mph, +13.9″ arm side, +0.2″ rise. Joe Mack: wOBA .290 vs league .296 (about even).Changeup 17%Cutter: 9% usage, 89.0 mph, -1.7″ arm side, +7.2″ rise. Joe Mack: wOBA .345 vs league .350 (about even).Cutter 9%Slider: 6% usage, 84.8 mph, -4.1″ arm side, +0.4″ rise. Joe Mack: wOBA .316 vs league .322 (about even).Slider 6%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Joe Mack's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit51.8%55.1%-3.3
2+ total bases27.3%30.9%-3.6
Home run9.0%12.2%-3.2
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-2.5
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.0
Park
-0.8
2+ total bases
Starter
-2.4
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
-1.1
Home run
Starter
-1.8
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.2
Park
-1.2

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Joe Mack hits
JR Ritchie · where he throws to left-handed hitters
5% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 40% per swing5%4% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 30% per swing4%3% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 33% per swing3%7% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 23% per swing7%6% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing6%3% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing3%5% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 17% per swing5%5% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 18% per swing5%3% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing3%18% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing18%8% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing8%16% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 40% per swing16%18% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 48% per swing18%
All · 286 pitches · catcher's view
1% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters1%1% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters1%0% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters9% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters9%6% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters6%3% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters3%6% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters6%12% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters12%4% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters4%14% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters14%1% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters1%10% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters10%32% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters32%
Curveball · 78 pitches · catcher's view
2% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters2%0% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters0% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters3% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters3%5% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters5%2% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters2%6% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters6%6% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters6%5% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters5%18% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters18%0% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters34% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters34%21% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters21%
Changeup · 67 pitches · catcher's view
9% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters9%14% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters14%10% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters10%5% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters5%5% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters5%3% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters3%2% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters2%0% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters0% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters19% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters19%21% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters21%3% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters3%9% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters9%
Fastball · 58 pitches · catcher's view
10% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters10%3% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters3%3% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters3%10% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters10%7% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters7%3% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters3%5% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters5%3% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters3%5% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters5%21% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters21%2% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters2%21% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters21%5% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters5%
Sinker · 58 pitches · catcher's view
4% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters4%4% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters4%0% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters8% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters8%4% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters4%4% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters4%0% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters0% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters0% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters21% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters21%38% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters38%0% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters17% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters17%
Cutter · 24 pitches · catcher's view

Share of his pitches in each spot; darker is more. Last 90 days.

Pitch by pitch

Joe Mack against each of JR Ritchie's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Curveball27%83.0-13″ / -12″.279.28532.0%30.4%23About league average vs these
Sinker21%94.3+16″ / +6″.354.3609.8%13.2%45About league average vs these
Fastball19%94.7+9″ / +14″.351.35612.7%17.5%65About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Changeup17%88.0+14″ / +0″.290.29634.9%28.2%36About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Cutter9%89.0-2″ / +7″.345.35016.5%21.9%46About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Slider6%84.8-4″ / +0″.316.32230.8%29.7%39About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight

No pitch-level data for this hitter in the current window.

FormNormal
Contact rating25Below average
Last 100 pitches61trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.290 / .290results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit6/12
2+ total bases3/12
Home run2/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Two strikes

JR Ritchie ATL · RHPwith two strikes
JR Ritchie with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Curveball31%45%21.6%21.8%20.7%
Changeup16%21%38.5%24.0%18.4%
Fastball19%17%36.4%28.6%18.3%
Sinker26%10%25.0%25.0%17.7%
Cutter8%6%20.0%14.3%18.7%
Slider1%2%0.0%50.0%21.4%
Joe Mack bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Joe Mack with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Misses his two-strike stuff more than most
With two strikesHimLeague
K%44.9%41.3%
Whiff%25.0%21.6%
Contact%75.0%78.4%
Chase%40.2%39.4%
wOBA.222.246
Whiff vs his put-away shapes27.5%24.1%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeDBalanced type
wOBA.303
K%24.4%
BB%5.8%
Whiff%12.0%
Barrel%5.1%
Hard-hit%26.6%
Avg EV87.8

Against right-handers, last 90 days

157 PA
wOBA.315
xwOBA vs this mix.295against pitches like his
RV/1000.05
Hard-hit%28.8%
K%25.8%
BB%4.8%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
JR RitchieRHP · ATL vs MIA
4.5projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 7 · 21.3 batters over 4.9 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 34.2%34%≤34 strikeouts: 18.8%19%45 strikeouts: 17.0%17%56 strikeouts: 12.8%13%67 strikeouts: 8.3%8%78 strikeouts: 4.7%5%89+ strikeouts: 4.2%4%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 47% (red bars) · under: 53%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%23.8%
BB%13.1%
Whiff%9.1%
Velo89.3
BTB Stuff97
Location99
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff%
Curveball31%10383.013.7%
Sinker24%8694.14.4%
Fastball23%10695.17.0%
Changeup18%8887.411.9%
Cutter5%10588.95.6%
Last 3 startsStable
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 228636%13%9%.309
Sep 168223%11%36%.577
Aug 28120%6%35%.320

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

JR Ritchie ATL · RHPvsMIA lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

3 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.8%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameATL @ MIA →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Joe Mack: every projection we've made →