MLBengine v14
← ATL at MIA, Sep 27, 2026
2:10 PM CT · loanDepot park · lineup projected
Hitter · ATL · batting 7Mike Yastrzemski
Bats leftTalent grade CBalancedNormal
.325wOBA vs RHP.334xwOBA vs his mix3.5expected PA
Starter · MIAJanson Junk
Throws rightBTB Stuff 99Trending Up
3.0projected K16%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Janson Junk's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 38% usage, 93.7 mph, +3.8″ arm side, +18.2″ rise. Mike Yastrzemski: wOBA .364 vs league .355 (about even).Fastball 38%Slider: 21% usage, 86.7 mph, -6.0″ arm side, +3.1″ rise. Mike Yastrzemski: wOBA .340 vs league .330 (about even).Slider 21%Sweeper: 16% usage, 81.0 mph, -14.3″ arm side, +2.2″ rise. Mike Yastrzemski: wOBA .336 vs league .326 (about even).Sweeper 16%Changeup: 11% usage, 87.6 mph, +14.3″ arm side, +2.6″ rise. Mike Yastrzemski: wOBA .303 vs league .292 (about even).Changeup 11%Curveball: 11% usage, 81.1 mph, -7.0″ arm side, -13.3″ rise. Mike Yastrzemski: wOBA .300 vs league .290 (about even).Curveball 11%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Mike Yastrzemski's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Mike Yastrzemski's last 40 balls in playHit (13)Out (27)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 96.9 mph at 62°Single: 93.4 mph at 6°Out: 96.0 mph at 37°Out: 102.5 mph at 19°Out: 91.9 mph at 65°Out: 97.4 mph at 8°Single: 96.1 mph at 13°Home run: 101.4 mph at 36°Out: 102.8 mph at 5°Single: 88.5 mph at 6°Home run: 98.4 mph at 39°Out: 64.9 mph at -13°Out: 94.8 mph at 6°Out: 81.4 mph at -22°Out: 56.1 mph at -40°Out: 91.5 mph at 0°Out: 101.1 mph at -13°Out: 79.8 mph at 70°Home run: 104.9 mph at 24°Out: 60.3 mph at -50°Out: 89.1 mph at 1°Single: 73.1 mph at 34°Single: 96.6 mph at 10°Single: 91.8 mph at -8°Double: 92.1 mph at 22°Out: 90.8 mph at 56°Out: 82.4 mph at 39°Out: 104.8 mph at 19°Out: 81.3 mph at -34°Out: 58.2 mph at 38°Out: 99.4 mph at 22°Single: 73.2 mph at 28°Double: 81.6 mph at 24°Single: 41.1 mph at -64°Out: 89.0 mph at 2°Out: 96.8 mph at 31°Out: 98.6 mph at 37°Out: 97.0 mph at 5°Out: 85.1 mph at 41°Out: 66.9 mph at -61°
40% hit 95+ mph28% in the sweet spot33% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit57.3%54.3%+3.0
2+ total bases36.0%33.5%+2.5
Home run13.0%12.0%+1.0
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+3.2
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.4
Park
-0.6
2+ total bases
Starter
+2.9
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.6
Park
-1.1
Home run
Starter
+1.9
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.4
Park
-1.4

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Mike Yastrzemski hits
Where they meet

.320 xwOBA for Mike Yastrzemski in the spots Janson Junk throws to lefties

The average hitter in those same spots: .310 (+10 points). His best spot against righties is middle, and Janson Junk puts 7% of his pitches there. Context only; the projection reads pitch type, not location.

Janson Junk · where he throws to left-handed hitters
6% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 27% per swing6%5% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 31% per swing5%4% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 5% per swing4%5% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 6% per swing5%7% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 7% per swing7%6% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 4% per swing6%5% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing5%8% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing8%6% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing6%12% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 44% per swing12%5% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 18% per swing5%10% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 13% per swing10%21% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 25% per swing21%
All · 613 pitches · catcher's view
11% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters11%6% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters6%7% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters7%7% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters7%8% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters8%7% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters7%3% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters3%5% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters5%6% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters6%17% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters17%9% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters9%3% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters3%11% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters11%
Fastball · 247 pitches · catcher's view
3% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters3%2% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters2%0% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters3% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters3%5% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters5%1% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters1%9% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters9%11% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters11%3% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters3%9% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters9%0% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters37% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters37%17% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters17%
Changeup · 107 pitches · catcher's view
3% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters3%5% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters5%4% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters4%6% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters6%11% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters11%8% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters8%3% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters3%12% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters12%8% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters8%5% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters5%3% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters3%4% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters4%26% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters26%
Slider · 95 pitches · catcher's view
5% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters5%4% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters4%5% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters5%3% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters3%3% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters3%5% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters5%3% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters3%10% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters10%6% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters6%12% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters12%3% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters3%10% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters10%33% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters33%
Curveball · 81 pitches · catcher's view
2% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters2%3% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters3%3% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters3%3% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters3%5% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters5%12% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters12%2% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters2%7% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters7%7% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters7%12% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters12%0% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters5% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters5%40% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters40%
Sweeper · 60 pitches · catcher's view
9% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters9%4% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters4%0% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters0% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters9% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters9%4% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters4%17% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters17%9% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters9%17% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters17%4% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters4%0% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters4% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters4%22% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters22%
Sinker · 23 pitches · catcher's view

Share of his pitches in each spot; darker is more. Last 90 days.

Mike Yastrzemski · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .247 shrunk (raw .210 on 9 PA) · league .274 · 32 pitches seen.247xwOBA .273 shrunk (raw .190 on 5 PA) · league .307 · 25 pitches seen.273xwOBA .270 shrunk (raw .353 on 1 PA) · league .263 · 13 pitches seen.270xwOBA .348 shrunk (raw .356 on 9 PA) · league .342 · 51 pitches seen.348xwOBA .475 shrunk (raw .523 on 22 PA) · league .386 · 52 pitches seen.475xwOBA .275 shrunk (raw .233 on 13 PA) · league .321 · 42 pitches seen.275xwOBA .307 shrunk (raw .305 on 10 PA) · league .308 · 39 pitches seen.307xwOBA .328 shrunk (raw .316 on 24 PA) · league .351 · 57 pitches seen.328xwOBA .353 shrunk (raw .401 on 15 PA) · league .292 · 31 pitches seen.353xwOBA .405 shrunk (raw .430 on 13 PA) · league .377 · 117 pitches seen.405xwOBA .237 shrunk (raw .162 on 6 PA) · league .274 · 41 pitches seen.237xwOBA .263 shrunk (raw .263 on 20 PA) · league .263 · 122 pitches seen.263xwOBA .303 shrunk (raw .318 on 23 PA) · league .274 · 112 pitches seen.303
vs RHP · 734 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 46% of 13 swings · league 22%46%Whiff 47% of 17 swings · league 20%47%Whiff 44% of 9 swings · league 19%44%Whiff 11% of 27 swings · league 10%11%Whiff 10% of 40 swings · league 9%10%Whiff 15% of 26 swings · league 11%15%Whiff 0% of 19 swings · league 14%0%Whiff 9% of 43 swings · league 13%9%Whiff 5% of 19 swings · league 17%5%Whiff 71% of 7 swings · league 28%71%Whiff 23% of 13 swings · league 24%23%Whiff 20% of 35 swings · league 32%20%Whiff 30% of 50 swings · league 49%30%
vs RHP · 734 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 41% of 32 pitches · league 62%41%Swings at 68% of 25 pitches · league 72%68%Swings at 69% of 13 pitches · league 66%69%Swings at 53% of 51 pitches · league 70%53%Swings at 77% of 52 pitches · league 76%77%Swings at 62% of 42 pitches · league 70%62%Swings at 49% of 39 pitches · league 65%49%Swings at 75% of 57 pitches · league 68%75%Swings at 61% of 31 pitches · league 60%61%Swings at 6% of 117 pitches · league 24%6%Swings at 32% of 41 pitches · league 34%32%Swings at 29% of 122 pitches · league 40%29%Swings at 45% of 112 pitches · league 32%45%
vs RHP · 734 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Mike Yastrzemski against each of Janson Junk's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball38%93.7+4″ / +18″.364.35519.1%16.9%616About league average vs these
Slider21%86.7-6″ / +3″.340.33022.6%26.7%290About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Sweeper16%81.0-14″ / +2″.336.32619.4%23.6%106About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Changeup11%87.6+14″ / +3″.303.29221.3%27.8%224About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Curveball11%81.1-7″ / -13″.300.29024.7%29.1%135About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Mike Yastrzemski · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G513.182.308.182.246.31830.8%15.4%21.7%96.3102.50.0%71.4%42.9%
Last 15 G1542.237.310.421.320.30519.0%9.5%18.5%88.6104.93.3%40.0%26.7%
Last 30 G3081.236.321.347.302.30125.9%11.1%18.6%88.7105.12.0%43.1%27.5%
90 days64170.221.306.423.322.33424.7%11.2%20.1%89.9107.07.3%43.1%35.8%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 109 balls in play
Ground 39%Line drive 25%Fly ball 25%Pop-up 12%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G111.0001.0004.0002.000.7760.0%0.0%33.3%101.4101.40.0%100.0%0.0%
Last 15 G22.500.5002.0001.000.38850.0%0.0%20.0%101.4101.40.0%100.0%0.0%
Last 30 G33.333.3331.333.667.39533.3%0.0%28.6%94.2101.40.0%50.0%0.0%
90 days66.667.6671.167.783.32216.7%0.0%18.2%73.4101.40.0%40.0%0.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 5 balls in play
Ground 80%Line drive 0%Fly ball 20%Pop-up 0%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G514.250.357.500.371.35128.6%14.3%23.1%97.0102.50.0%75.0%37.5%
Last 15 G1544.250.318.500.351.30820.5%9.1%18.6%89.0104.93.2%41.9%25.8%
Last 30 G3084.240.321.387.315.30426.2%10.7%19.0%88.9105.11.9%43.4%26.4%
90 days64176.239.318.452.338.33324.4%10.8%20.1%89.2107.07.0%43.0%34.2%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 114 balls in play
Ground 40%Line drive 24%Fly ball 25%Pop-up 11%
Mike Yastrzemski · percentile ranksvs 228 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating85Excellent
Last 100 pitches30trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.342 / .357results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit5/12
2+ total bases4/12
Home run3/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPSinker98.196.962.021Out
Sep 24RHPFastball93.693.46.477Single
Sep 24RHPFastball95.596.037.209Out
Sep 24RHPSinker94.1102.519.489Out
Sep 23RHPCurveball86.991.965.014Out
Sep 20RHPChangeup87.197.48.627Out
Sep 20RHPFastball95.296.113.907Single
Sep 20LHPFastball92.0101.436.776Home run
Sep 19RHPCutter87.8102.85.558Out
Sep 19RHPChangeup87.488.56.414Single
Sep 19RHPFastball94.898.439.213Home run
Sep 18RHPFastball92.064.9-13.044Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25300002
Sep 24511011
Sep 23100000
Sep 22100010
Sep 20425101
Sep 19425101
Sep 18400002
Sep 16100000
Sep 15400000
Sep 14214110

Two strikes

Janson Junk MIA · RHPwith two strikes
Janson Junk with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball36%36%11.1%17.1%18.3%
Changeup16%19%12.9%10.5%18.4%
Sweeper16%18%8.6%7.3%20.7%
Slider16%15%13.3%17.8%21.4%
Curveball11%9%22.2%11.5%20.7%
Sinker5%4%0.0%9.1%17.7%
Mike Yastrzemski bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Mike Yastrzemski with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%41.8%41.3%
Whiff%21.5%21.6%
Contact%78.5%78.4%
Chase%37.0%39.4%
wOBA.256.246
Whiff vs his put-away shapes22.0%22.0%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeCBalanced type
wOBA.337
K%23.0%
BB%11.4%
Whiff%9.1%
Barrel%4.8%
Hard-hit%28.1%
Avg EV89.2

Against right-handers, last 90 days

169 PA
wOBA.325
xwOBA vs this mix.334against pitches like his
RV/1000.19
Hard-hit%27.7%
K%24.1%
BB%10.7%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Janson JunkRHP · MIA vs ATL
3.0projected strikeouts · likely 1 to 5 · 19.0 batters over 4.5 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 63.7%64%≤34 strikeouts: 16.9%17%45 strikeouts: 10.4%10%56 strikeouts: 5.3%5%67 strikeouts: 2.4%2%78 strikeouts: 0.9%1%89+ strikeouts: 0.4%0%9+book 3.5
Over 3.5: 36% (red bars) · under: 64%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%16.4%
BB%7.6%
Whiff%5.5%
Velo88.0
BTB Stuff99
Location106
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff%
Fastball35%10494.15.0%
Sweeper17%9680.49.2%
Changeup16%9987.34.1%
Slider15%9986.25.8%
Curveball12%9380.84.7%
Sinker5%9393.74.3%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 228433%8%11%.139
Sep 157227%10%13%.443
Sep 9600%3%32%.529

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Janson Junk MIA · RHPvsATL lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.8%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameATL @ MIA →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Mike Yastrzemski: every projection we've made →