MLBengine v14
← ATL at MIA, Sep 27, 2026
2:10 PM CT · loanDepot park · lineup projected
Hitter · ATL · batting 6Ozzie Albies
Switch hitterTalent grade FBalancedCold
.279wOBA vs RHP.248xwOBA vs his mix3.6expected PA
Starter · MIAJanson Junk
Throws rightBTB Stuff 99Trending Up
3.0projected K16%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Janson Junk's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 38% usage, 93.7 mph, +3.8″ arm side, +18.2″ rise. Ozzie Albies: wOBA .343 vs league .355 (about even).Fastball 38%Slider: 21% usage, 86.7 mph, -6.0″ arm side, +3.1″ rise. Ozzie Albies: wOBA .317 vs league .330 (about even).Slider 21%Sweeper: 16% usage, 81.0 mph, -14.3″ arm side, +2.2″ rise. Ozzie Albies: wOBA .313 vs league .326 (about even).Sweeper 16%Changeup: 11% usage, 87.6 mph, +14.3″ arm side, +2.6″ rise. Ozzie Albies: wOBA .279 vs league .292 (about even).Changeup 11%Curveball: 11% usage, 81.1 mph, -7.0″ arm side, -13.3″ rise. Ozzie Albies: wOBA .276 vs league .290 (about even).Curveball 11%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Ozzie Albies's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Ozzie Albies's last 40 balls in playHit (8)Out (32)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 97.8 mph at -6°Out: 88.2 mph at 58°Out: 80.1 mph at 86°Single: 64.3 mph at -42°Single: 91.7 mph at 0°Out: 49.9 mph at 42°Out: 85.0 mph at 34°Out: 92.9 mph at 21°Out: 83.6 mph at 32°Out: 98.2 mph at 66°Out: 72.6 mph at -5°Single: 64.2 mph at 46°Out: 79.8 mph at -33°Out: 83.9 mph at -19°Out: 97.5 mph at -4°Out: 94.8 mph at 51°Out: 87.6 mph at 57°Out: 80.5 mph at -35°Out: 79.2 mph at 25°Single: 108.5 mph at 4°Out: 82.6 mph at 43°Out: 89.1 mph at -23°Single: 98.9 mph at 11°Home run: 103.2 mph at 37°Out: 92.8 mph at -11°Out: 99.4 mph at -19°Out: 66.2 mph at 7°Out: 88.6 mph at -22°Out: 83.3 mph at 64°Out: 56.2 mph at 85°Out: 91.9 mph at 55°Out: 75.4 mph at -24°Double: 106.2 mph at 13°Out: 89.7 mph at 46°Out: 90.8 mph at 40°Out: 85.2 mph at -16°Out: 87.4 mph at -16°Out: 97.9 mph at 42°Out: 91.5 mph at 5°Triple: 99.2 mph at 24°
25% hit 95+ mph15% in the sweet spot20% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit59.9%56.8%+3.1
2+ total bases33.4%30.8%+2.6
Home run9.5%8.3%+1.3
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+3.3
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.2
Park
-0.5
2+ total bases
Starter
+3.1
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.3
Park
-0.8
Home run
Starter
+2.1
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.2
Park
-1.1

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Ozzie Albies hits
Where they meet

.279 xwOBA for Ozzie Albies in the spots Janson Junk throws to lefties

The average hitter in those same spots: .310 (-31 points). His best spot against righties is up and right, outside, and Janson Junk puts 5% of his pitches there. Context only; the projection reads pitch type, not location.

Janson Junk · where he throws to left-handed hitters
6% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 27% per swing6%5% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 31% per swing5%4% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 5% per swing4%5% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 6% per swing5%7% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 7% per swing7%6% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 4% per swing6%5% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing5%8% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing8%6% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing6%12% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 44% per swing12%5% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 18% per swing5%10% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 13% per swing10%21% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 25% per swing21%
All · 613 pitches · catcher's view
11% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters11%6% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters6%7% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters7%7% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters7%8% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters8%7% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters7%3% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters3%5% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters5%6% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters6%17% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters17%9% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters9%3% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters3%11% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters11%
Fastball · 247 pitches · catcher's view
3% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters3%2% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters2%0% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters3% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters3%5% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters5%1% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters1%9% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters9%11% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters11%3% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters3%9% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters9%0% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters37% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters37%17% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters17%
Changeup · 107 pitches · catcher's view
3% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters3%5% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters5%4% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters4%6% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters6%11% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters11%8% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters8%3% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters3%12% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters12%8% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters8%5% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters5%3% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters3%4% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters4%26% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters26%
Slider · 95 pitches · catcher's view
5% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters5%4% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters4%5% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters5%3% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters3%3% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters3%5% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters5%3% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters3%10% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters10%6% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters6%12% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters12%3% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters3%10% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters10%33% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters33%
Curveball · 81 pitches · catcher's view
2% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters2%3% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters3%3% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters3%3% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters3%5% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters5%12% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters12%2% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters2%7% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters7%7% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters7%12% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters12%0% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters5% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters5%40% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters40%
Sweeper · 60 pitches · catcher's view
9% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters9%4% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters4%0% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters0% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters9% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters9%4% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters4%17% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters17%9% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters9%17% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters17%4% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters4%0% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters4% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters4%22% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters22%
Sinker · 23 pitches · catcher's view

Share of his pitches in each spot; darker is more. Last 90 days.

Ozzie Albies · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .280 shrunk (raw .318 on 2 PA) · league .274 · 47 pitches seen.280xwOBA .223 shrunk (raw .112 on 9 PA) · league .307 · 46 pitches seen.223xwOBA .225 shrunk (raw .000 on 2 PA) · league .263 · 18 pitches seen.225xwOBA .306 shrunk (raw .286 on 21 PA) · league .342 · 75 pitches seen.306xwOBA .225 shrunk (raw .150 on 26 PA) · league .386 · 54 pitches seen.225xwOBA .331 shrunk (raw .347 on 8 PA) · league .321 · 29 pitches seen.331xwOBA .264 shrunk (raw .235 on 18 PA) · league .308 · 40 pitches seen.264xwOBA .275 shrunk (raw .233 on 22 PA) · league .351 · 65 pitches seen.275xwOBA .249 shrunk (raw .210 on 13 PA) · league .292 · 35 pitches seen.249xwOBA .373 shrunk (raw .371 on 22 PA) · league .377 · 161 pitches seen.373xwOBA .314 shrunk (raw .476 on 3 PA) · league .274 · 32 pitches seen.314xwOBA .200 shrunk (raw .183 on 44 PA) · league .263 · 184 pitches seen.200xwOBA .285 shrunk (raw .290 on 29 PA) · league .274 · 145 pitches seen.285
vs RHP · 931 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 38% of 16 swings · league 22%38%Whiff 42% of 31 swings · league 20%42%Whiff 40% of 15 swings · league 19%40%Whiff 8% of 53 swings · league 10%8%Whiff 13% of 46 swings · league 9%13%Whiff 0% of 24 swings · league 11%0%Whiff 9% of 32 swings · league 14%9%Whiff 11% of 54 swings · league 13%11%Whiff 10% of 30 swings · league 17%10%Whiff 62% of 13 swings · league 28%62%Whiff 20% of 10 swings · league 24%20%Whiff 22% of 110 swings · league 32%22%Whiff 36% of 81 swings · league 49%36%
vs RHP · 931 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 34% of 47 pitches · league 62%34%Swings at 67% of 46 pitches · league 72%67%Swings at 83% of 18 pitches · league 66%83%Swings at 71% of 75 pitches · league 70%71%Swings at 85% of 54 pitches · league 76%85%Swings at 83% of 29 pitches · league 70%83%Swings at 80% of 40 pitches · league 65%80%Swings at 83% of 65 pitches · league 68%83%Swings at 86% of 35 pitches · league 60%86%Swings at 8% of 161 pitches · league 24%8%Swings at 31% of 32 pitches · league 34%31%Swings at 60% of 184 pitches · league 40%60%Swings at 56% of 145 pitches · league 32%56%
vs RHP · 931 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Ozzie Albies against each of Janson Junk's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball38%93.7+4″ / +18″.343.35520.3%16.9%525About league average vs these
Slider21%86.7-6″ / +3″.317.33024.1%26.7%326About league average vs these
Sweeper16%81.0-14″ / +2″.313.32620.1%23.6%154About league average vs these
Changeup11%87.6+14″ / +3″.279.29217.3%27.8%303About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Curveball11%81.1-7″ / -13″.276.29024.2%29.1%180About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Ozzie Albies · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G513.083.154.083.123.09746.2%0.0%28.1%80.597.80.0%16.7%0.0%
Last 15 G1340.135.175.297.206.18627.5%2.5%29.4%89.3106.20.0%30.8%19.2%
Last 30 G2684.173.238.320.248.24021.4%6.0%21.6%89.3107.21.7%29.3%27.6%
90 days68220.187.259.369.275.23921.4%7.3%21.4%87.0107.23.3%28.3%29.6%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 152 balls in play
Ground 34%Line drive 18%Fly ball 34%Pop-up 14%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G37.286.286.286.257.1270.0%0.0%9.1%80.898.20.0%14.3%28.6%
Last 15 G820.167.250.167.205.19710.0%10.0%19.1%83.1108.50.0%18.8%18.8%
Last 30 G1540.211.250.237.224.22317.5%5.0%20.8%84.7108.50.0%19.4%29.0%
90 days46111.225.261.314.262.25614.4%5.4%21.7%87.0108.72.2%25.8%32.6%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 89 balls in play
Ground 38%Line drive 18%Fly ball 36%Pop-up 8%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G520.158.200.158.170.10730.0%0.0%23.3%80.698.20.0%15.4%15.4%
Last 15 G1560.145.200.255.206.19021.7%5.0%25.8%86.9108.50.0%26.2%19.0%
Last 30 G30124.186.242.292.240.23420.2%5.6%21.4%87.7108.51.1%25.8%28.1%
90 days79331.200.260.350.271.24519.0%6.6%21.5%87.0108.72.9%27.4%30.7%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 241 balls in play
Ground 36%Line drive 18%Fly ball 35%Pop-up 12%
Ozzie Albies · percentile ranksvs 228 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormCold
Contact rating7Bottom tier
Last 100 pitches0trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.274 / .254running 20 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit6/12
2+ total bases2/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPFastball97.897.8-6.270Out
Sep 25RHPSinker97.088.258.017Out
Sep 24RHPSinker90.080.186.000Out
Sep 24RHPSlider82.764.3-42.142Single
Sep 23LHPChangeup84.991.70.325Single
Sep 23LHPCurveball81.149.942.041Out
Sep 23LHPFastball92.885.034.020Out
Sep 22LHPChangeup87.092.921.268Out
Sep 22LHPFastball95.383.632.025Out
Sep 22LHPCutter90.898.266.028Out
Sep 20RHPSlider90.372.6-5.051Out
Sep 20LHPFastball92.864.246.180Single
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25300001
Sep 24511003
Sep 23411000
Sep 22400001
Sep 20411001
Sep 19400001
Sep 18400011
Sep 16411011
Sep 15425100
Sep 14400001

Two strikes

Janson Junk MIA · RHPwith two strikes
Janson Junk with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball36%36%11.1%17.1%18.3%
Changeup16%19%12.9%10.5%18.4%
Sweeper16%18%8.6%7.3%20.7%
Slider16%15%13.3%17.8%21.4%
Curveball11%9%22.2%11.5%20.7%
Sinker5%4%0.0%9.1%17.7%
Ozzie Albies bats Swith two strikes, vs this hand
Ozzie Albies with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%34.8%41.3%
Whiff%19.1%21.6%
Contact%80.9%78.4%
Chase%45.1%39.4%
wOBA.243.246
Whiff vs his put-away shapes20.0%22.0%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeFBalanced type
wOBA.285
K%18.7%
BB%6.9%
Whiff%12.0%
Barrel%2.4%
Hard-hit%20.5%
Avg EV87.1

Against right-handers, last 90 days

220 PA
wOBA.279
xwOBA vs this mix.248against pitches like his
RV/100-0.84
Hard-hit%20.2%
K%21.3%
BB%6.8%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Janson JunkRHP · MIA vs ATL
3.0projected strikeouts · likely 1 to 5 · 19.0 batters over 4.5 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 63.7%64%≤34 strikeouts: 16.9%17%45 strikeouts: 10.4%10%56 strikeouts: 5.3%5%67 strikeouts: 2.4%2%78 strikeouts: 0.9%1%89+ strikeouts: 0.4%0%9+book 3.5
Over 3.5: 36% (red bars) · under: 64%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%16.4%
BB%7.6%
Whiff%5.5%
Velo88.0
BTB Stuff99
Location106
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff%
Fastball35%10494.15.0%
Sweeper17%9680.49.2%
Changeup16%9987.34.1%
Slider15%9986.25.8%
Curveball12%9380.84.7%
Sinker5%9393.74.3%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 228433%8%11%.139
Sep 157227%10%13%.443
Sep 9600%3%32%.529

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Janson Junk MIA · RHPvsATL lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.8%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameATL @ MIA →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Ozzie Albies: every projection we've made →