MLBengine v14
← ATL at MIA, Sep 27, 2026
2:10 PM CT · loanDepot park · lineup projected
Hitter · ATL · batting 2Ronald Acuña Jr.
Bats rightTalent grade APowerNormal
.350wOBA vs RHP.353xwOBA vs his mix3.9expected PA
Starter · MIAJanson Junk
Throws rightBTB Stuff 99Trending Up
3.0projected K16%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Janson Junk's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 38% usage, 93.7 mph, +3.8″ arm side, +18.2″ rise. Ronald Acuña Jr.: wOBA .405 vs league .339 (hitter's edge).Fastball 38%Slider: 21% usage, 86.7 mph, -6.0″ arm side, +3.1″ rise. Ronald Acuña Jr.: wOBA .366 vs league .296 (hitter's edge).Slider 21%Sweeper: 16% usage, 81.0 mph, -14.3″ arm side, +2.2″ rise. Ronald Acuña Jr.: wOBA .345 vs league .277 (hitter's edge).Sweeper 16%Changeup: 11% usage, 87.6 mph, +14.3″ arm side, +2.6″ rise. Ronald Acuña Jr.: wOBA .368 vs league .300 (hitter's edge).Changeup 11%Curveball: 11% usage, 81.1 mph, -7.0″ arm side, -13.3″ rise. Ronald Acuña Jr.: wOBA .362 vs league .293 (hitter's edge).Curveball 11%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Ronald Acuña Jr.'s wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Ronald Acuña Jr.'s last 40 balls in playHit (15)Out (25)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 92.2 mph at 21°Out: 80.6 mph at 0°Out: 88.0 mph at 5°Out: 104.1 mph at 24°Single: 100.5 mph at -25°Out: 83.4 mph at 31°Single: 103.6 mph at 21°Out: 103.5 mph at 39°Out: 82.0 mph at 30°Single: 42.1 mph at -37°Out: 49.3 mph at -7°Single: 90.4 mph at 13°Out: 72.7 mph at -5°Home run: 105.1 mph at 26°Out: 60.6 mph at -24°Out: 69.3 mph at 73°Home run: 111.0 mph at 21°Out: 82.6 mph at 48°Double: 105.8 mph at 24°Single: 66.9 mph at 27°Home run: 105.8 mph at 23°Out: 75.6 mph at -7°Out: 99.6 mph at 48°Out: 93.6 mph at -20°Out: 55.0 mph at 23°Out: 104.1 mph at 3°Out: 75.4 mph at 34°Out: 85.7 mph at 59°Single: 94.7 mph at 14°Single: 77.5 mph at 11°Out: 95.0 mph at 31°Single: 91.8 mph at 14°Home run: 108.0 mph at 44°Single: 77.0 mph at -51°Out: 49.4 mph at 10°Double: 106.6 mph at 13°Out: 85.6 mph at 43°Out: 94.4 mph at -17°Out: 88.6 mph at 70°Out: 62.2 mph at 1°
33% hit 95+ mph45% in the sweet spot38% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit67.2%65.2%+2.0
2+ total bases44.0%43.1%+0.9
Home run17.2%18.3%-1.1
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+2.5
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.2
Park
-0.7
2+ total bases
Starter
+1.9
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
-1.3
Home run
Starter
+0.6
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
-1.8

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Ronald Acuña Jr. hits
Where they meet

.328 xwOBA for Ronald Acuña Jr. in the spots Janson Junk throws to righties

The average hitter in those same spots: .307 (+21 points). His best spot against righties is middle, and Janson Junk puts 7% of his pitches there. Context only; the projection reads pitch type, not location.

Janson Junk · where he throws to right-handed hitters
5% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing5%8% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 15% per swing8%4% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 10% per swing4%5% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 9% per swing5%7% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 5% per swing7%6% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing6%3% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing3%8% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing8%4% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 22% per swing4%10% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 17% per swing10%6% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing6%6% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 18% per swing6%29% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 29% per swing29%
All · 349 pitches · catcher's view
9% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters9%13% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters13%5% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters5%6% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters6%5% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters5%5% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters5%1% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters1%11% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters11%4% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters4%14% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters14%6% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters6%3% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters3%17% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters17%
Fastball · 99 pitches · catcher's view
1% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters1%7% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters7%8% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters8%2% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters2%8% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters8%6% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters6%0% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters5% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters5%6% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters6%3% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters3%10% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters10%1% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters1%41% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters41%
Sweeper · 97 pitches · catcher's view
7% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters7%9% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters9%0% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters2% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters2%4% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters4%13% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters13%6% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters6%4% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters4%7% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters7%4% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters4%7% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters7%2% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters2%35% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters35%
Slider · 54 pitches · catcher's view
7% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters7%0% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters0% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters7% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters7%2% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters2%2% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters2%11% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters11%9% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters9%0% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters14% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters14%0% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters18% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters18%30% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters30%
Changeup · 44 pitches · catcher's view
0% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters0% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters4% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters4%11% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters11%14% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters14%7% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters7%0% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters7% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters7%0% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters21% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters21%0% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters21% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters21%14% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters14%
Sinker · 28 pitches · catcher's view
7% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters7%7% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters7%4% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters4%4% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters4%15% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters15%4% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters4%4% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters4%11% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters11%0% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters7% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters7%0% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters11% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters11%26% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters26%
Curveball · 27 pitches · catcher's view

Share of his pitches in each spot; darker is more. Last 90 days.

Ronald Acuña Jr. · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .234 shrunk (raw .166 on 7 PA) · league .274 · 26 pitches seen.234xwOBA .295 shrunk (raw .280 on 9 PA) · league .307 · 34 pitches seen.295xwOBA .376 shrunk (raw .499 on 11 PA) · league .263 · 20 pitches seen.376xwOBA .404 shrunk (raw .471 on 11 PA) · league .342 · 30 pitches seen.404xwOBA .505 shrunk (raw .648 on 10 PA) · league .386 · 41 pitches seen.505xwOBA .367 shrunk (raw .410 on 13 PA) · league .321 · 35 pitches seen.367xwOBA .311 shrunk (raw .316 on 9 PA) · league .308 · 21 pitches seen.311xwOBA .354 shrunk (raw .357 on 11 PA) · league .351 · 26 pitches seen.354xwOBA .396 shrunk (raw .465 on 18 PA) · league .292 · 41 pitches seen.396xwOBA .383 shrunk (raw .392 on 8 PA) · league .377 · 75 pitches seen.383xwOBA .173 shrunk (raw .093 on 15 PA) · league .274 · 55 pitches seen.173xwOBA .301 shrunk (raw .332 on 15 PA) · league .263 · 49 pitches seen.301xwOBA .286 shrunk (raw .291 on 28 PA) · league .274 · 171 pitches seen.286
vs RHP · 624 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 28% of 18 swings · league 22%28%Whiff 35% of 23 swings · league 20%35%Whiff 13% of 15 swings · league 19%13%Whiff 21% of 24 swings · league 10%21%Whiff 12% of 33 swings · league 9%12%Whiff 21% of 28 swings · league 11%21%Whiff 11% of 18 swings · league 14%11%Whiff 17% of 24 swings · league 13%17%Whiff 12% of 34 swings · league 17%12%Whiff 29% of 17 swings · league 28%29%Whiff 65% of 23 swings · league 24%65%Whiff 26% of 27 swings · league 32%26%Whiff 49% of 55 swings · league 49%49%
vs RHP · 624 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 69% of 26 pitches · league 62%69%Swings at 68% of 34 pitches · league 72%68%Swings at 75% of 20 pitches · league 66%75%Swings at 80% of 30 pitches · league 70%80%Swings at 81% of 41 pitches · league 76%81%Swings at 80% of 35 pitches · league 70%80%Swings at 86% of 21 pitches · league 65%86%Swings at 92% of 26 pitches · league 68%92%Swings at 83% of 41 pitches · league 60%83%Swings at 23% of 75 pitches · league 24%23%Swings at 42% of 55 pitches · league 34%42%Swings at 55% of 49 pitches · league 40%55%Swings at 32% of 171 pitches · league 32%32%
vs RHP · 624 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Ronald Acuña Jr. against each of Janson Junk's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball38%93.7+4″ / +18″.405.33925.2%21.6%469Hits these better than most
Slider21%86.7-6″ / +3″.366.29625.8%31.6%329Hits these better than most; rarely misses them
Sweeper16%81.0-14″ / +2″.345.27725.2%30.9%157Hits these better than most; rarely misses them
Changeup11%87.6+14″ / +3″.368.30029.4%32.0%117Hits these better than most
Curveball11%81.1-7″ / -13″.362.29322.2%27.4%96Hits these better than most; rarely misses them
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Ronald Acuña Jr. · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G417.357.471.571.506.53211.8%17.6%19.2%86.0105.125.0%41.7%41.7%
Last 15 G1450.283.340.522.388.42712.0%8.0%16.5%85.7111.015.0%35.0%37.5%
Last 30 G2798.318.378.568.416.39817.3%9.2%24.1%88.4111.912.7%40.8%35.2%
90 days50166.255.307.471.353.35723.5%6.6%27.7%90.3111.911.4%47.4%36.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 114 balls in play
Ground 41%Line drive 26%Fly ball 22%Pop-up 11%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G22.000.000.000.000.1030.0%0.0%37.5%82.783.40.0%0.0%100.0%
Last 15 G814.308.357.615.411.32228.6%7.1%34.2%84.3108.011.1%33.3%66.7%
Last 30 G1733.276.364.448.358.33021.2%12.1%25.3%91.3115.29.1%40.9%54.5%
90 days3163.286.365.536.387.36617.5%11.1%23.0%87.2115.28.9%37.8%42.2%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 45 balls in play
Ground 36%Line drive 29%Fly ball 27%Pop-up 9%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G519.312.421.500.453.48710.5%15.8%23.5%85.5105.121.4%35.7%50.0%
Last 15 G1564.288.344.542.393.40415.6%7.8%21.7%85.4111.014.3%34.7%42.9%
Last 30 G30131.308.374.538.402.38018.3%9.9%24.4%89.1115.211.8%40.9%39.8%
90 days53229.263.323.488.362.36021.8%7.9%26.4%89.4115.210.7%44.7%37.7%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 159 balls in play
Ground 40%Line drive 27%Fly ball 23%Pop-up 10%
Ronald Acuña Jr. · percentile ranksvs 228 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating91Top tier
Last 100 pitches100trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.357 / .368results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit9/12
2+ total bases8/12
Home run4/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPSweeper85.592.221.264Out
Sep 25RHPSlider91.180.60.177Out
Sep 25RHPSlider89.288.05.372Error
Sep 24RHPSinker90.2104.1241.367Out
Sep 24RHPFastball97.7100.5-25.091Single
Sep 24LHPFastball98.083.431.086Out
Sep 24RHPSlider81.7103.621.954Single
Sep 24RHPFastball94.0103.539.615Out
Sep 22LHPCutter92.582.030.120Out
Sep 20RHPSinker95.642.1-37.282Single
Sep 20RHPSinker97.249.3-7.129Out
Sep 19RHPSinker93.490.413.882Single
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25400001
Sep 24522000
Sep 22100000
Sep 20411011
Sep 19525120
Sep 18514101
Sep 16423002
Sep 15514101
Sep 14500011
Sep 13522001

Two strikes

Janson Junk MIA · RHPwith two strikes
Janson Junk with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball36%36%11.1%17.1%18.3%
Changeup16%19%12.9%10.5%18.4%
Sweeper16%18%8.6%7.3%20.7%
Slider16%15%13.3%17.8%21.4%
Curveball11%9%22.2%11.5%20.7%
Sinker5%4%0.0%9.1%17.7%
Ronald Acuña Jr. bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Ronald Acuña Jr. with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%40.1%43.3%
Whiff%21.6%23.5%
Contact%78.4%76.5%
Chase%32.5%39.4%
wOBA.289.235
Whiff vs his put-away shapes23.3%25.4%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeAPower type
wOBA.377
K%22.2%
BB%10.0%
Whiff%13.6%
Barrel%7.7%
Hard-hit%30.6%
Avg EV89.7

Against right-handers, last 90 days

166 PA
wOBA.350
xwOBA vs this mix.353against pitches like his
RV/1000.64
Hard-hit%31.7%
K%23.3%
BB%7.9%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Janson JunkRHP · MIA vs ATL
3.0projected strikeouts · likely 1 to 5 · 19.0 batters over 4.5 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 63.7%64%≤34 strikeouts: 16.9%17%45 strikeouts: 10.4%10%56 strikeouts: 5.3%5%67 strikeouts: 2.4%2%78 strikeouts: 0.9%1%89+ strikeouts: 0.4%0%9+book 3.5
Over 3.5: 36% (red bars) · under: 64%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%16.4%
BB%7.6%
Whiff%5.5%
Velo88.0
BTB Stuff99
Location106
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff%
Fastball35%10494.15.0%
Sweeper17%9680.49.2%
Changeup16%9987.34.1%
Slider15%9986.25.8%
Curveball12%9380.84.7%
Sinker5%9393.74.3%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 228433%8%11%.139
Sep 157227%10%13%.443
Sep 9600%3%32%.529

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Janson Junk MIA · RHPvsATL lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.8%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameATL @ MIA →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Ronald Acuña Jr.: every projection we've made →