MLBengine v14
← ATL at MIA, Sep 27, 2026
2:10 PM CT · loanDepot park · lineup projected
Hitter · ATL · batting 9Sean Murphy
Bats rightTalent grade AvgBalancedNormal
.325wOBA vs RHP.304xwOBA vs his mix3.3expected PA
Starter · MIAJanson Junk
Throws rightBTB Stuff 99Trending Up
3.0projected K16%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Janson Junk's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 38% usage, 93.7 mph, +3.8″ arm side, +18.2″ rise. Sean Murphy: wOBA .346 vs league .339 (about even).Fastball 38%Slider: 21% usage, 86.7 mph, -6.0″ arm side, +3.1″ rise. Sean Murphy: wOBA .303 vs league .296 (about even).Slider 21%Sweeper: 16% usage, 81.0 mph, -14.3″ arm side, +2.2″ rise. Sean Murphy: wOBA .284 vs league .277 (about even).Sweeper 16%Changeup: 11% usage, 87.6 mph, +14.3″ arm side, +2.6″ rise. Sean Murphy: wOBA .308 vs league .300 (about even).Changeup 11%Curveball: 11% usage, 81.1 mph, -7.0″ arm side, -13.3″ rise. Sean Murphy: wOBA .301 vs league .293 (about even).Curveball 11%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Sean Murphy's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit51.8%47.6%+4.3
2+ total bases30.3%27.8%+2.5
Home run11.9%11.5%+0.4
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+4.7
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.2
Park
-0.6
2+ total bases
Starter
+3.4
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
-1.0
Home run
Starter
+1.6
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.0
Park
-1.3

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Sean Murphy hits
Janson Junk · where he throws to right-handed hitters
5% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing5%8% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 15% per swing8%4% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 10% per swing4%5% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 9% per swing5%7% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 5% per swing7%6% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing6%3% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing3%8% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing8%4% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 22% per swing4%10% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 17% per swing10%6% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing6%6% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 18% per swing6%29% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 29% per swing29%
All · 349 pitches · catcher's view
9% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters9%13% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters13%5% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters5%6% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters6%5% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters5%5% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters5%1% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters1%11% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters11%4% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters4%14% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters14%6% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters6%3% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters3%17% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters17%
Fastball · 99 pitches · catcher's view
1% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters1%7% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters7%8% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters8%2% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters2%8% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters8%6% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters6%0% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters5% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters5%6% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters6%3% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters3%10% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters10%1% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters1%41% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters41%
Sweeper · 97 pitches · catcher's view
7% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters7%9% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters9%0% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters2% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters2%4% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters4%13% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters13%6% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters6%4% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters4%7% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters7%4% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters4%7% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters7%2% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters2%35% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters35%
Slider · 54 pitches · catcher's view
7% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters7%0% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters0% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters7% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters7%2% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters2%2% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters2%11% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters11%9% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters9%0% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters14% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters14%0% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters18% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters18%30% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters30%
Changeup · 44 pitches · catcher's view
0% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters0% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters4% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters4%11% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters11%14% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters14%7% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters7%0% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters7% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters7%0% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters21% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters21%0% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters21% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters21%14% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters14%
Sinker · 28 pitches · catcher's view
7% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters7%7% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters7%4% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters4%4% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters4%15% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters15%4% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters4%4% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters4%11% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters11%0% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters7% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters7%0% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters11% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters11%26% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters26%
Curveball · 27 pitches · catcher's view

Share of his pitches in each spot; darker is more. Last 90 days.

Pitch by pitch

Sean Murphy against each of Janson Junk's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball38%93.7+4″ / +18″.346.33921.1%21.6%329About league average vs these
Slider21%86.7-6″ / +3″.303.29630.3%31.6%333About league average vs these
Sweeper16%81.0-14″ / +2″.284.27729.2%30.9%186About league average vs these
Changeup11%87.6+14″ / +3″.308.30037.5%32.0%73About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Curveball11%81.1-7″ / -13″.301.29326.1%27.4%83About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight

No pitch-level data for this hitter in the current window.

FormNormal
Contact rating52Average
Last 100 pitches53steady
wOBA / xwOBA.297 / .318running 21 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit3/12
2+ total bases1/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Two strikes

Janson Junk MIA · RHPwith two strikes
Janson Junk with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball36%36%11.1%17.1%18.3%
Changeup16%19%12.9%10.5%18.4%
Sweeper16%18%8.6%7.3%20.7%
Slider16%15%13.3%17.8%21.4%
Curveball11%9%22.2%11.5%20.7%
Sinker5%4%0.0%9.1%17.7%
Sean Murphy bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Sean Murphy with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%44.6%43.3%
Whiff%24.9%23.5%
Contact%75.1%76.5%
Chase%39.3%39.4%
wOBA.220.235
Whiff vs his put-away shapes26.9%25.4%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeAvgBalanced type
wOBA.310
K%28.8%
BB%10.1%
Whiff%12.3%
Barrel%6.3%
Hard-hit%24.9%
Avg EV88.6

Against right-handers, last 90 days

74 PA
wOBA.325
xwOBA vs this mix.304against pitches like his
RV/100-0.25
Hard-hit%27.7%
K%26.6%
BB%9.9%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Janson JunkRHP · MIA vs ATL
3.0projected strikeouts · likely 1 to 5 · 19.0 batters over 4.5 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 63.7%64%≤34 strikeouts: 16.9%17%45 strikeouts: 10.4%10%56 strikeouts: 5.3%5%67 strikeouts: 2.4%2%78 strikeouts: 0.9%1%89+ strikeouts: 0.4%0%9+book 3.5
Over 3.5: 36% (red bars) · under: 64%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%16.4%
BB%7.6%
Whiff%5.5%
Velo88.0
BTB Stuff99
Location106
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff%
Fastball35%10494.15.0%
Sweeper17%9680.49.2%
Changeup16%9987.34.1%
Slider15%9986.25.8%
Curveball12%9380.84.7%
Sinker5%9393.74.3%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 228433%8%11%.139
Sep 157227%10%13%.443
Sep 9600%3%32%.529

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Janson Junk MIA · RHPvsATL lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.8%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameATL @ MIA →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Sean Murphy: every projection we've made →