MLBengine v14
← BAL at NYY, Sep 27, 2026
12:05 PM CT · Yankee Stadium · lineup projected
Hitter · NYY · batting 4Amed Rosario
Bats rightTalent grade CBalancedNormal
.315wOBA vs RHP.293xwOBA vs his mix3.8expected PA
Starter · BALShane Baz
Throws rightBTB Stuff 98Trending Down
5.9projected K20%K%2.7trips vs this hitter
Shane Baz's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 41% usage, 96.3 mph, +9.8″ arm side, +16.9″ rise. Amed Rosario: wOBA .331 vs league .337 (about even).Fastball 41%Curveball: 27% usage, 84.9 mph, -6.4″ arm side, -11.5″ rise. Amed Rosario: wOBA .273 vs league .280 (about even).Curveball 27%Cutter: 11% usage, 89.8 mph, -2.9″ arm side, +7.3″ rise. Amed Rosario: wOBA .306 vs league .313 (about even).Cutter 11%Changeup: 10% usage, 88.5 mph, +15.2″ arm side, +9.0″ rise. Amed Rosario: wOBA .345 vs league .351 (about even).Changeup 10%Slider: 7% usage, 87.3 mph, -2.4″ arm side, +3.5″ rise. Amed Rosario: wOBA .296 vs league .303 (about even).Slider 7%Sinker: 3% usage, 95.2 mph, +14.8″ arm side, +12.4″ rise. Amed Rosario: wOBA .340 vs league .347 (about even).Sinker 3%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Amed Rosario's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit59.4%58.9%+0.5
2+ total bases33.5%33.5%-0.1
Home run9.2%10.1%-0.9
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-0.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.0
Park
+0.5
2+ total bases
Starter
-0.9
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.0
Park
+0.9
Home run
Starter
-2.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
0.0
Park
+1.1

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Amed Rosario hits
Shane Baz · where he throws to right-handed hitters
4% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 20% per swing4%5% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 8% per swing5%4% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 10% per swing4%4% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 24% per swing4%9% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 13% per swing9%8% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 8% per swing8%4% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 18% per swing4%4% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing4%8% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing8%11% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 50% per swing11%8% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 18% per swing8%4% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 33% per swing4%28% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 46% per swing28%
All · 480 pitches · catcher's view
2% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters2%3% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters3%2% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters2%1% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters1%3% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters3%5% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters5%2% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters2%3% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters3%10% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters10%9% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters9%3% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters3%5% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters5%51% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters51%
Curveball · 147 pitches · catcher's view
6% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters6%5% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters5%0% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters7% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters7%13% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters13%8% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters8%7% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters7%7% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters7%7% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters7%14% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters14%3% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters3%8% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters8%14% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters14%
Sinker · 135 pitches · catcher's view
4% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters4%6% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters6%7% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters7%1% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters1%11% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters11%9% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters9%3% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters3%3% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters3%9% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters9%7% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters7%12% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters12%0% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters28% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters28%
Cutter · 106 pitches · catcher's view
7% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters7%7% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters7%9% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters9%8% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters8%8% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters8%10% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters10%2% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters2%2% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters2%4% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters4%14% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters14%16% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters16%2% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters2%12% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters12%
Fastball · 92 pitches · catcher's view

Share of his pitches in each spot; darker is more. Last 90 days.

Pitch by pitch

Amed Rosario against each of Shane Baz's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball41%96.3+10″ / +17″.331.33719.3%19.6%364About league average vs these
Curveball27%84.9-6″ / -12″.273.28027.5%31.5%145About league average vs these
Cutter11%89.8-3″ / +7″.306.31327.2%28.0%323About league average vs these
Changeup10%88.5+15″ / +9″.345.35111.3%16.2%260About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Slider7%87.3-2″ / +4″.296.30326.7%31.2%370About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Sinker3%95.2+15″ / +12″.340.34712.3%12.6%374About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight

No pitch-level data for this hitter in the current window.

FormNormal
Contact rating27Below average
Last 100 pitches19trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.282 / .293results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit8/12
2+ total bases5/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Two strikes

Shane Baz BAL · RHPwith two strikes
Shane Baz with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Curveball33%43%18.4%17.8%20.7%
Fastball34%35%14.6%20.0%18.3%
Changeup11%12%21.4%14.9%18.4%
Cutter12%7%25.0%18.5%18.7%
Sinker10%4%8.3%11.8%17.7%
Other0%0%–0.0%17.9%
Amed Rosario bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Amed Rosario with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%41.3%43.3%
Whiff%23.2%23.5%
Contact%76.8%76.5%
Chase%48.0%39.4%
wOBA.235.235
Whiff vs his put-away shapes23.6%24.2%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeCBalanced type
wOBA.312
K%21.8%
BB%4.9%
Whiff%12.0%
Barrel%5.5%
Hard-hit%29.7%
Avg EV89.9

Against right-handers, last 90 days

27 PA
wOBA.315
xwOBA vs this mix.293against pitches like his
RV/100-0.22
Hard-hit%24.7%
K%26.7%
BB%5.8%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Shane BazRHP · BAL vs NYY
5.9projected strikeouts · likely 3 to 9 · 23.7 batters over 5.7 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 16.0%16%≤34 strikeouts: 13.7%14%45 strikeouts: 16.1%16%56 strikeouts: 16.0%16%67 strikeouts: 13.4%13%78 strikeouts: 10.1%10%89+ strikeouts: 14.7%15%9+book 5.5
Over 5.5: 54% (red bars) · under: 46%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%20.1%
BB%7.7%
Whiff%9.3%
Velo90.6
BTB Stuff98
Location102
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff%
Fastball34%10095.66.8%
Curveball33%10285.311.3%
Cutter12%10889.810.0%
Changeup11%7887.211.8%
Sinker10%9195.37.9%
Last 3 startsTrending Down
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 21937%3%19%.254
Sep 156810%7%43%.419
Sep 910019%5%35%.387

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Shane Baz BAL · RHPvsNYY lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

6 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.8%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameBAL @ NYY →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Amed Rosario: every projection we've made →