MLBengine v14
← Sep 27, 2026 slate

Orioles at Yankees

12:05 PM CT · Yankee Stadium · 60F · Wind in 15 mph · 80% precip risk

The game

BAL runs4.9win 60%
NYY runs3.8win 40%
Total8.8no pre-game book line
No run, 1st inning50%research only

Game totals, win probability and the first inning are research only: in the backtest they don't beat the league-wide rate. Shown as projections, never as plays.

Park and air
Carry
– vs neutral air
Weather
60°F · Wind in · roof open
Park factor
Runs 101 · HR 115 100 = average
Schedule
BAL 2d rest; NYY 2d rest

Air density from observed temperature, dew point and pressure. It shapes batted balls, not the run total directly.

BAL starter
Shane BazRHP · BAL vs NYY
5.9projected strikeouts · likely 3 to 9 · 23.7 batters over 5.7 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 16.0%16%≤34 strikeouts: 13.7%14%45 strikeouts: 16.1%16%56 strikeouts: 16.0%16%67 strikeouts: 13.4%13%78 strikeouts: 10.1%10%89+ strikeouts: 14.7%15%9+book 5.5
Over 5.5: 54% (red bars) · under: 46%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%20.1%
BB%7.7%
Whiff%9.3%
Velo90.6
BTB Stuff98
Location102
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff%
Fastball34%10095.66.8%
Curveball33%10285.311.3%
Cutter12%10889.810.0%
Changeup11%7887.211.8%
Sinker10%9195.37.9%
Last 3 startsTrending Down
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 21937%3%19%.254
Sep 156810%7%43%.419
Sep 910019%5%35%.387

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Shane Baz BAL · RHPvsNYY lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

6 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.8%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

NYY starter
Elmer RodríguezRHP · NYY vs BAL
5.4projected strikeouts · likely 3 to 8 · 21.6 batters over 5.1 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 21.6%22%≤34 strikeouts: 15.9%16%45 strikeouts: 17.2%17%56 strikeouts: 15.4%15%67 strikeouts: 11.9%12%78 strikeouts: 8.1%8%89+ strikeouts: 9.9%10%9+book 5.5
Over 5.5: 45% (red bars) · under: 55%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%26.2%
BB%11.9%
Whiff%13.4%
Velo91.3
BTB Stuff91
Location101
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff%
Sinker54%9296.77.2%
Curveball24%9078.825.6%
Fastball12%9096.69.1%
Sweeper6%10081.240.0%
Changeup4%7389.60.0%
Last 2 startsStable
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Aug 319125%14%20%.372
Aug 268827%13%27%.252

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Elmer Rodríguez NYY · RHPvsBAL lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

5 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.8%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

Pitch-mix battles

each lineup against the starter it faces
Elmer Rodríguez NYY · RHPvsBAL lineuppitch-mix battle
Elmer Rodríguez's whiff and run value per 100 pitches next to what this lineup has done against the same pitch type. Edge is positive when the pitch favors the hitters.
Elmer Rodríguez's pitchesBAL lineup vs that pitch
PitchUsageVeloBTB StuffWhiff%RV/100wOBAWhiff%Hard-hit%Edge
Sinker54%96.7927.2%0.66.3906.4%27.9%+2.29
Curveball24%78.89025.6%0.65.24912.6%21.6%-1.11
Fastball12%96.6909.1%4.02.3029.3%30.2%-0.65
Sweeper6%81.210040.0%1.12.26814.3%19.4%-0.28
Changeup4%89.6730.0%-42.66.30313.6%22.2%+1.64
Shane Baz BAL · RHPvsNYY lineuppitch-mix battle
Shane Baz's whiff and run value per 100 pitches next to what this lineup has done against the same pitch type. Edge is positive when the pitch favors the hitters.
Shane Baz's pitchesNYY lineup vs that pitch
PitchUsageVeloBTB StuffWhiff%RV/100wOBAWhiff%Hard-hit%Edge
Fastball34%95.61006.8%1.19.30810.5%31.8%-0.79
Curveball33%85.310211.3%-0.62.33312.4%29.3%+1.03
Cutter12%89.810810.0%1.26.38310.5%31.5%+0.27
Changeup11%87.27811.8%-3.27.29014.7%25.0%+0.14
Sinker10%95.3917.9%3.31.3836.8%31.3%+0.11

Bullpens

Orioles bullpen#8 of 30
K%24.6%
BB%8.8%
K-BB%15.8%
SwStr%11.9%
wOBA allowed.311
Arms available18 / 18

No one pitched yesterday.

Ranked on a blend of K-BB% (60%) and wOBA allowed (40%) over the bullpen window. Tired arms are context: in our tests bullpen rest didn't improve run totals.

Yankees bullpen#25 of 30
K%20.0%
BB%9.5%
K-BB%10.5%
SwStr%10.9%
wOBA allowed.341
Arms available19 / 19

No one pitched yesterday.

Ranked on a blend of K-BB% (60%) and wOBA allowed (40%) over the bullpen window. Tired arms are context: in our tests bullpen rest didn't improve run totals.

Two strikes

how each starter finishes hitters
Shane Baz BAL · RHPwith two strikes
Shane Baz with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Curveball33%43%18.4%17.8%20.7%
Fastball34%35%14.6%20.0%18.3%
Changeup11%12%21.4%14.9%18.4%
Cutter12%7%25.0%18.5%18.7%
Sinker10%4%8.3%11.8%17.7%
Other0%0%–0.0%17.9%
Elmer Rodríguez NYY · RHPwith two strikes
Elmer Rodríguez with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Curveball24%33%44.4%25.0%20.7%
Sinker54%31%11.1%20.0%17.7%
Fastball12%29%20.0%21.4%18.3%
Changeup4%4%0.0%0.0%18.4%
Sweeper6%4%100.0%50.0%20.7%

Orioles lineup

Projected · facing Elmer Rodríguez RHP
SpotHitter1+ hit2+ TBHRPAMatchup (1+ hit)wOBA vs handTalent gradeTypeForm
1Dylan Beavers RF · bats L56.3%34.7%14.0%4.0-0.6.322AvgBalancedCold
2Pete Alonso 1B · bats R66.0%46.2%22.5%3.9-1.2.412APowerNormal
3Gunnar Henderson SS · bats L60.6%36.3%12.9%3.8+0.3.339CBalancedHot
4Coby Mayo DH · bats R58.8%38.8%19.0%3.8-1.4.329APowerNormal
5Christian Encarnacion-Strand 3B · bats R59.7%38.2%16.4%3.7-0.4.328CBalancedCold
6Colton Cowser CF · bats L50.3%29.5%12.0%3.6-0.8.325AvgBalancedNormal
7Jeremiah Jackson 2B · bats R50.5%30.2%11.6%3.5+0.7.229AvgBalancedNormal
8Christian Franklin LF · bats R48.2%25.6%8.1%3.4-2.3.284DBalancedCold
9Carlos Narváez C · bats R45.3%27.4%10.6%3.3+1.1.214FBalancedNormal
Matchup: points of 1+ hit chance against the same hitter facing a league-average starter, bullpen and park. wOBA vs hand: the last 90 days against pitchers of the starter's hand. Talent: season-level grade. Form is context and doesn't move a projection.

Yankees lineup

Projected · facing Shane Baz RHP
SpotHitter1+ hit2+ TBHRPAMatchup (1+ hit)wOBA vs handTalent gradeTypeForm
1Paul Goldschmidt 1B · bats R63.3%38.8%12.9%4.0+1.5.255DBalancedNormal
2Ben Rice DH · bats L63.1%45.3%21.7%3.9+1.3.378APowerHot
3Heliot Ramos LF · bats R60.9%38.9%15.3%3.8+2.7.291APowerCold
4Amed Rosario RF · bats R59.4%33.5%9.2%3.8+0.5.315CBalancedNormal
5George Lombard Jr. SS · bats R57.6%32.0%10.7%3.7-0.3.294FBalancedHot
6Spencer Jones CF · bats L55.6%36.7%17.0%3.6-0.1.300APowerCold
7Anthony Volpe 3B · bats R55.8%32.3%10.8%3.5+0.7.258FBalancedNormal
8Ali Sánchez C · bats R56.4%30.7%8.6%3.4+1.6.274FBalancedHot
9José Caballero 2B · bats R49.2%25.9%7.8%3.3+1.6.291FBalancedNormal
Matchup: points of 1+ hit chance against the same hitter facing a league-average starter, bullpen and park. wOBA vs hand: the last 90 days against pitchers of the starter's hand. Talent: season-level grade. Form is context and doesn't move a projection.