MLBengine v14
← BAL at NYY, Sep 27, 2026
12:05 PM CT · Yankee Stadium · lineup projected
Hitter · BAL · batting 2Pete Alonso
Bats rightTalent grade APowerNormal
.412wOBA vs RHP.413xwOBA vs his mix3.9expected PA
Starter · NYYElmer Rodríguez
Throws rightBTB Stuff 91Stable
5.4projected K26%K%2.7trips vs this hitter
Elmer Rodríguez's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Sinker: 46% usage, 95.9 mph, +16.2″ arm side, +6.6″ rise. Pete Alonso: wOBA .391 vs league .342 (hitter's edge).Sinker 46%Fastball: 19% usage, 95.6 mph, +9.7″ arm side, +12.0″ rise. Pete Alonso: wOBA .403 vs league .354 (hitter's edge).Fastball 19%Curveball: 14% usage, 78.3 mph, -12.7″ arm side, -11.0″ rise. Pete Alonso: wOBA .345 vs league .297 (hitter's edge).Curveball 14%Sweeper: 13% usage, 80.4 mph, -17.5″ arm side, -3.5″ rise. Pete Alonso: wOBA .321 vs league .272 (hitter's edge).Sweeper 13%Changeup: 8% usage, 87.7 mph, +10.4″ arm side, +1.4″ rise. Pete Alonso: wOBA .335 vs league .286 (hitter's edge).Changeup 8%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Pete Alonso's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit66.0%67.3%-1.2
2+ total bases46.2%47.8%-1.6
Home run22.5%23.8%-1.3
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-2.2
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.2
Park
+1.1
2+ total bases
Starter
-3.3
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.2
Park
+1.8
Home run
Starter
-3.6
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+2.4

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Pete Alonso hits
Elmer Rodríguez · where he throws to right-handed hitters
3% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing3%3% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing3%0% of his pitches to right-handed hitters6% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing6%5% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 33% per swing5%7% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing7%7% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 20% per swing7%7% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 50% per swing7%5% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing5%10% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing10%4% of his pitches to right-handed hitters4%13% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 33% per swing13%33% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 80% per swing33%
All · 107 pitches · catcher's view
3% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters3%5% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters5%0% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters6% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters6%8% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters8%9% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters9%8% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters8%11% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters11%8% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters8%11% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters11%3% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters3%11% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters11%20% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters20%
Sinker · 66 pitches · catcher's view
4% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters4%0% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters0% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters4% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters4%0% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters0% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters4% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters4%0% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters0% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters4% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters4%0% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters17% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters17%65% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters65%
Curveball · 23 pitches · catcher's view

Share of his pitches in each spot; darker is more. Last 90 days.

Pitch by pitch

Pete Alonso against each of Elmer Rodríguez's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Sinker46%95.9+16″ / +7″.391.34211.4%12.9%623Hits these better than most
Fastball19%95.6+10″ / +12″.403.35412.9%14.8%812Hits these better than most
Curveball14%78.3-13″ / -11″.345.29730.1%29.9%156Hits these better than most
Sweeper13%80.4-18″ / -4″.321.27229.9%30.4%207Hits these better than most
Changeup8%87.7+10″ / +1″.335.28628.9%32.2%115Hits these better than most
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight

No pitch-level data for this hitter in the current window.

FormNormal
Contact rating100Elite
Last 100 pitches100steady
wOBA / xwOBA.414 / .446running 32 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit8/12
2+ total bases7/12
Home run6/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Two strikes

Elmer Rodríguez NYY · RHPwith two strikes
Elmer Rodríguez with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Curveball24%33%44.4%25.0%20.7%
Sinker54%31%11.1%20.0%17.7%
Fastball12%29%20.0%21.4%18.3%
Changeup4%4%0.0%0.0%18.4%
Sweeper6%4%100.0%50.0%20.7%
Pete Alonso bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Pete Alonso with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%42.9%43.3%
Whiff%24.1%23.5%
Contact%75.9%76.5%
Chase%41.3%39.4%
wOBA.269.235
Whiff vs his put-away shapes19.3%19.0%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeAPower type
wOBA.400
K%24.2%
BB%11.0%
Whiff%10.6%
Barrel%10.9%
Hard-hit%35.4%
Avg EV93.3

Against right-handers, last 90 days

221 PA
wOBA.412
xwOBA vs this mix.413against pitches like his
RV/1001.81
Hard-hit%31.6%
K%24.6%
BB%11.3%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Elmer RodríguezRHP · NYY vs BAL
5.4projected strikeouts · likely 3 to 8 · 21.6 batters over 5.1 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 21.6%22%≤34 strikeouts: 15.9%16%45 strikeouts: 17.2%17%56 strikeouts: 15.4%15%67 strikeouts: 11.9%12%78 strikeouts: 8.1%8%89+ strikeouts: 9.9%10%9+book 5.5
Over 5.5: 45% (red bars) · under: 55%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%26.2%
BB%11.9%
Whiff%13.4%
Velo91.3
BTB Stuff91
Location101
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff%
Sinker54%9296.77.2%
Curveball24%9078.825.6%
Fastball12%9096.69.1%
Sweeper6%10081.240.0%
Changeup4%7389.60.0%
Last 2 startsStable
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Aug 319125%14%20%.372
Aug 268827%13%27%.252

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Elmer Rodríguez NYY · RHPvsBAL lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

5 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.8%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameBAL @ NYY →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Pete Alonso: every projection we've made →