← Sep 27, 2026 slate

Cubs at Red Sox

2:05 PM CT · Tropicana Field · 75F · Roofed 5 mph · roofed park

The game

CHC runs5.0win 57%
BOS runs4.1win 43%
Total9.1no pre-game book line
No run, 1st inning49%research only

Game totals, win probability and the first inning are research only: in the backtest they don't beat the league-wide rate. Shown as projections, never as plays.

Park and air
Carry
– vs neutral air
Weather
75°F · Roofed · roof dome
Park factor
Runs 95 · HR 110 100 = average
Schedule
CHC 2d rest; CHC traveled in; BOS 2d rest; BOS traveled in

Air density from observed temperature, dew point and pressure. It shapes batted balls, not the run total directly.

Neither starter has been announced.

Bullpens

Cubs bullpen#22 of 30
K%20.9%
BB%10.0%
K-BB%10.9%
SwStr%9.5%
wOBA allowed.337
Arms available16 / 16

No one pitched yesterday.

Ranked on a blend of K-BB% (60%) and wOBA allowed (40%) over the bullpen window. Tired arms are context: in our tests bullpen rest didn't improve run totals.

Red Sox bullpen#12 of 30
K%25.6%
BB%10.2%
K-BB%15.3%
SwStr%12.0%
wOBA allowed.328
Arms available17 / 17

No one pitched yesterday.

Ranked on a blend of K-BB% (60%) and wOBA allowed (40%) over the bullpen window. Tired arms are context: in our tests bullpen rest didn't improve run totals.

Cubs lineup

Projected · facing TBD
SpotHitter1+ hit2+ TBHRPAMatchup (1+ hit)wOBA vs handTalent gradeTypeForm
1Pete Crow-Armstrong CF · bats L63.9%45.1%22.3%4.0-0.1–——Normal
2Seiya Suzuki RF · bats R62.0%39.7%17.5%3.9+0.3–——Normal
3Alex Bregman DH · bats R64.5%40.7%15.0%3.8+0.1–——Normal
4Tyrone Taylor LF · bats R63.8%39.7%13.2%3.8+0.1–——Normal
5Nico Hoerner 2B · bats R67.6%36.2%4.7%3.7-0.3–——Normal
6Matt Shaw 3B · bats R55.2%31.8%9.9%3.6-0.0–——Normal
7Michael Busch 1B · bats L57.5%33.9%13.4%3.5-0.4–——Normal
8Dansby Swanson SS · bats R58.6%36.3%14.5%3.4+0.2–——Normal
9Miguel Amaya C · bats R50.8%28.5%10.3%3.3+0.1–——Normal
Matchup: points of 1+ hit chance against the same hitter facing a league-average starter, bullpen and park. wOBA vs hand: the last 90 days against pitchers of the starter's hand. Talent: season-level grade. Form is context and doesn't move a projection.

Red Sox lineup

Projected · facing TBD
SpotHitter1+ hit2+ TBHRPAMatchup (1+ hit)wOBA vs handTalent gradeTypeForm
1Roman Anthony LF · bats L60.8%36.7%14.1%4.0-0.3–——Normal
2Mickey Gasper C · bats S58.2%38.6%15.9%3.9-0.1–——Normal
3Adley Rutschman DH · bats S56.7%34.0%9.4%3.8-0.3–——Normal
4Wilyer Abreu RF · bats L58.9%39.3%17.1%3.8-0.4–——Normal
5Caleb Durbin 3B · bats R56.9%28.6%6.0%3.7-0.3–——Normal
6Nick Sogard 2B · bats S58.1%32.8%7.7%3.6-0.3–——Normal
7Jarren Duran CF · bats L55.2%31.3%10.9%3.5-0.4–——Normal
8Andruw Monasterio 1B · bats R57.3%30.1%8.1%3.4-0.2–——Normal
9Isiah Kiner-Falefa SS · bats R53.0%24.0%3.0%3.3-0.3–——Normal
Matchup: points of 1+ hit chance against the same hitter facing a league-average starter, bullpen and park. wOBA vs hand: the last 90 days against pitchers of the starter's hand. Talent: season-level grade. Form is context and doesn't move a projection.