MLBengine v14
← CIN at TOR, Sep 27, 2026
2:07 PM CT · Rogers Centre · lineup projected
Hitter · TOR · batting 7Davis Schneider
Bats rightTalent grade BBalancedNormal
.317wOBA vs LHP.299xwOBA vs his mix3.5expected PA
Starter · CINBrandon Williamson
Throws leftBTB Stuff 95Trending Up
3.2projected K16%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Brandon Williamson's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Cutter: 32% usage, 89.6 mph, -2.6″ arm side, +8.9″ rise. Davis Schneider: wOBA .336 vs league .344 (about even).Cutter 32%Fastball: 31% usage, 92.8 mph, +9.0″ arm side, +16.7″ rise. Davis Schneider: wOBA .351 vs league .359 (about even).Fastball 31%Changeup: 18% usage, 84.5 mph, +15.7″ arm side, +5.2″ rise. Davis Schneider: wOBA .311 vs league .319 (about even).Changeup 18%Sweeper: 9% usage, 81.7 mph, -14.0″ arm side, +2.3″ rise. Davis Schneider: wOBA .302 vs league .310 (about even).Sweeper 9%Curveball: 7% usage, 73.9 mph, -12.0″ arm side, -13.3″ rise. Davis Schneider: wOBA .285 vs league .293 (about even).Curveball 7%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Davis Schneider's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit48.2%45.7%+2.5
2+ total bases31.0%28.1%+2.9
Home run14.6%12.0%+2.6
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+0.8
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+1.1
Park
+0.6
2+ total bases
Starter
+1.2
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+1.0
Park
+0.8
Home run
Starter
+1.4
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.5
Park
+0.8

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Davis Schneider hits
Brandon Williamson · where he throws to right-handed hitters
2% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing2%7% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 25% per swing7%5% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 33% per swing5%7% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 13% per swing7%4% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 17% per swing4%5% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 33% per swing5%5% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 20% per swing5%4% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 17% per swing4%4% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing4%8% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 13% per swing8%19% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 17% per swing19%17% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 10% per swing17%12% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 25% per swing12%
All · 186 pitches · catcher's view
2% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters2%10% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters10%5% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters5%8% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters8%7% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters7%7% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters7%4% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters4%1% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters1%5% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters5%12% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters12%19% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters19%15% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters15%5% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters5%
Cutter · 93 pitches · catcher's view
2% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters2%0% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters0% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters6% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters6%2% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters2%6% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters6%6% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters6%6% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters6%2% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters2%0% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters21% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters21%25% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters25%23% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters23%
Changeup · 48 pitches · catcher's view
0% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters15% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters15%5% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters5%5% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters5%5% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters5%0% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters10% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters10%10% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters10%0% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters20% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters20%10% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters10%15% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters15%5% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters5%
Fastball · 20 pitches · catcher's view
0% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters0% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters22% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters22%6% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters6%0% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters6% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters6%6% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters6%6% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters6%11% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters11%0% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters28% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters28%0% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters17% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters17%
Curveball · 18 pitches · catcher's view

Share of his pitches in each spot; darker is more. Last 90 days.

Pitch by pitch

Davis Schneider against each of Brandon Williamson's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Cutter32%89.6-3″ / +9″.336.34430.1%20.3%45About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Fastball31%92.8+9″ / +17″.351.35927.2%17.9%106About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Changeup18%84.5+16″ / +5″.311.31934.5%28.6%54About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Sweeper9%81.7-14″ / +2″.302.31035.3%25.8%29About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Curveball7%73.9-12″ / -13″.285.29335.7%26.4%16About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonight

No pitch-level data for this hitter in the current window.

FormNormal
Contact rating–percentile of xwOBA
Last 100 pitches–
wOBA / xwOBA.406 / .369running 37 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit2/12
2+ total bases2/12
Home run2/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Two strikes

Brandon Williamson CIN · LHPwith two strikes
Brandon Williamson with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Cutter44%36%31.2%22.2%18.3%
Sweeper13%20%40.0%33.3%21.2%
Changeup18%20%37.5%20.0%18.3%
Fastball12%17%0.0%0.0%18.4%
Sinker5%4%0.0%0.0%17.8%
Curveball8%4%0.0%0.0%20.9%
Davis Schneider bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Davis Schneider with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Misses his two-strike stuff more than most
With two strikesHimLeague
K%51.1%41.4%
Whiff%29.2%22.0%
Contact%70.8%78.0%
Chase%33.9%40.7%
wOBA.225.248
Whiff vs his put-away shapes27.8%20.8%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeBBalanced type
wOBA.359
K%26.4%
BB%15.8%
Whiff%10.6%
Barrel%6.1%
Hard-hit%22.3%
Avg EV89.0

Against left-handers, last 90 days

22 PA
wOBA.317
xwOBA vs this mix.299against pitches like his
RV/100-0.18
Hard-hit%18.8%
K%29.9%
BB%16.3%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Brandon WilliamsonLHP · CIN vs TOR
3.2projected strikeouts · likely 1 to 6 · 20.7 batters over 4.8 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 60.1%60%≤34 strikeouts: 17.8%18%45 strikeouts: 11.4%11%56 strikeouts: 6.1%6%67 strikeouts: 2.8%3%78 strikeouts: 1.2%1%89+ strikeouts: 0.6%1%9+book 3.5
Over 3.5: 40% (red bars) · under: 60%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%16.1%
BB%8.0%
Whiff%9.5%
Velo88.2
BTB Stuff95
Location100
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff%
Cutter44%9890.512.1%
Changeup20%9886.010.0%
Fastball13%8593.63.2%
Sweeper11%10983.023.1%
Curveball7%8076.90.0%
Sinker4%7593.710.0%
Other2%––0.0%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 226811%9%37%.142
Sep 79017%13%22%.448
Sep 28721%9%33%.381

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Brandon Williamson CIN · LHPvsTOR lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

1 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.8%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameCIN @ TOR →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Davis Schneider: every projection we've made →