The game
Game totals, win probability and the first inning are research only: in the backtest they don't beat the league-wide rate. Shown as projections, never as plays.
- Carry
- – vs neutral air
- Weather
- 62°F · Crosswind · roof retractable
- Park factor
- Runs 102 · HR 105 100 = average
Air density from observed temperature, dew point and pressure. It shapes batted balls, not the run total directly.
TOR starter not announced yet.
| Date | Pitches | K% | Whiff% | Hard-hit% | wOBA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 22 | 68 | 11% | 9% | 37% | .142 |
| Sep 7 | 90 | 17% | 13% | 22% | .448 |
| Sep 2 | 87 | 21% | 9% | 33% | .381 |
Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.
1 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight
Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.8%. Red strikes out more, blue less.
Pitch-mix battles
each lineup against the starter it faces| Brandon Williamson's pitches | TOR lineup vs that pitch | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pitch | Usage | Velo | BTB Stuff | Whiff% | RV/100 | wOBA | Whiff% | Hard-hit% | Edge |
| Cutter | 44% | 90.5 | 98 | 12.1% | 4.04 | .255 | 8.1% | 22.6% | -3.53 |
| Changeup | 20% | 86.0 | 98 | 10.0% | -8.71 | .331 | 12.2% | 26.0% | +2.10 |
| Fastball | 13% | 93.6 | 85 | 3.2% | -3.74 | .287 | 8.2% | 21.3% | +0.20 |
| Sweeper | 11% | 83.0 | 109 | 23.1% | 0.79 | .277 | 15.5% | 10.0% | -0.38 |
| Curveball | 7% | 76.9 | 80 | 0.0% | 2.08 | .332 | 9.9% | 22.3% | +0.05 |
| Sinker | 4% | 93.7 | 75 | 10.0% | -2.62 | .375 | 3.6% | 26.0% | +0.28 |
| Other | 2% | – | – | 0.0% | – | .315 | 0.0% | 0.0% | – |
Bullpens
No one pitched yesterday.
Ranked on a blend of K-BB% (60%) and wOBA allowed (40%) over the bullpen window. Tired arms are context: in our tests bullpen rest didn't improve run totals.
No one pitched yesterday.
Ranked on a blend of K-BB% (60%) and wOBA allowed (40%) over the bullpen window. Tired arms are context: in our tests bullpen rest didn't improve run totals.
Two strikes
how each starter finishes hitters| Pitch | Overall | 2 strikes | Whiff% | Put-away | League put-away |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cutter | 44% | 36% | 31.2% | 22.2% | 18.3% |
| Sweeper | 13% | 20% | 40.0% | 33.3% | 21.2% |
| Changeup | 18% | 20% | 37.5% | 20.0% | 18.3% |
| Fastball | 12% | 17% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 18.4% |
| Sinker | 5% | 4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 17.8% |
| Curveball | 8% | 4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 20.9% |
Reds lineup
Projected · facing TBD| Spot | Hitter | 1+ hit | 2+ TB | HR | PA | Matchup (1+ hit) | wOBA vs hand | Talent grade | Type | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carlos Jorge CF · bats L | 59.4% | 35.5% | 11.5% | 4.0 | +0.3 | – | — | — | Normal |
| 2 | Elly De La Cruz DH · bats S | 66.3% | 45.1% | 16.8% | 3.9 | +0.2 | – | — | — | Normal |
| 3 | Sal Stewart 1B · bats R | 67.3% | 41.6% | 16.4% | 3.8 | +0.1 | – | — | — | Normal |
| 4 | JJ Bleday LF · bats L | 53.6% | 33.4% | 12.8% | 3.8 | +0.3 | – | — | — | Normal |
| 5 | Eugenio Suárez 3B · bats R | 52.4% | 36.3% | 19.3% | 3.7 | +0.2 | – | — | — | Normal |
| 6 | Héctor Rodríguez RF · bats L | 55.8% | 32.7% | 11.5% | 3.6 | +0.3 | – | — | — | Normal |
| 7 | Juan Brito 2B · bats S | 60.6% | 37.4% | 13.1% | 3.5 | +0.2 | – | — | — | Normal |
| 8 | Jose Trevino C · bats R | 56.7% | 30.9% | 7.4% | 3.4 | +0.0 | – | — | — | Normal |
| 9 | Oswaldo Cabrera SS · bats S | 51.7% | 26.1% | 5.9% | 3.3 | +0.1 | – | — | — | Normal |
Blue Jays lineup
Projected · facing Brandon Williamson LHP| Spot | Hitter | 1+ hit | 2+ TB | HR | PA | Matchup (1+ hit) | wOBA vs hand | Talent grade | Type | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charles McAdoo 2B · bats R | 62.9% | 36.6% | 10.2% | 4.0 | +2.3 | .333 | D | Balanced | Normal |
| 2 | Alejandro Kirk C · bats R | 71.5% | 42.7% | 11.5% | 3.9 | +1.2 | .401 | B | Power | Cold |
| 3 | Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 1B · bats R | 68.5% | 42.5% | 12.9% | 3.8 | +2.7 | .347 | A | Power | Normal |
| 4 | George Springer DH · bats R | 65.1% | 40.8% | 15.0% | 3.8 | +1.3 | .258 | B | Contact | Normal |
| 5 | Kazuma Okamoto 3B · bats R | 63.3% | 42.4% | 19.9% | 3.7 | +2.8 | .381 | C | Balanced | Hot |
| 6 | Nathan Lukes RF · bats L | 63.3% | 33.7% | 6.7% | 3.6 | +1.3 | .325 | F | Balanced | Hot |
| 7 | Davis Schneider LF · bats R | 48.2% | 31.0% | 14.6% | 3.5 | +2.5 | .317 | B | Balanced | Normal |
| 8 | Ernie Clement 2B · bats R | 62.2% | 32.7% | 5.7% | 3.4 | +2.2 | .261 | F | Balanced | Hot |
| 9 | Myles Straw CF · bats R | 57.1% | 30.2% | 5.8% | 3.3 | +1.4 | .326 | C | Contact | Normal |