MLBengine v14
← CIN at TOR, Sep 27, 2026
2:07 PM CT · Rogers Centre · lineup projected
Hitter · TOR · batting 5Kazuma Okamoto
Bats rightTalent grade CBalancedHot
.381wOBA vs LHP.378xwOBA vs his mix3.7expected PA
Starter · CINBrandon Williamson
Throws leftBTB Stuff 95Trending Up
3.2projected K16%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Brandon Williamson's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Cutter: 32% usage, 89.6 mph, -2.6″ arm side, +8.9″ rise. Kazuma Okamoto: wOBA .358 vs league .344 (about even).Cutter 32%Fastball: 31% usage, 92.8 mph, +9.0″ arm side, +16.7″ rise. Kazuma Okamoto: wOBA .373 vs league .359 (about even).Fastball 31%Changeup: 18% usage, 84.5 mph, +15.7″ arm side, +5.2″ rise. Kazuma Okamoto: wOBA .333 vs league .319 (about even).Changeup 18%Sweeper: 9% usage, 81.7 mph, -14.0″ arm side, +2.3″ rise. Kazuma Okamoto: wOBA .324 vs league .310 (about even).Sweeper 9%Curveball: 7% usage, 73.9 mph, -12.0″ arm side, -13.3″ rise. Kazuma Okamoto: wOBA .307 vs league .293 (about even).Curveball 7%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Kazuma Okamoto's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Kazuma Okamoto's last 40 balls in playHit (13)Out (27)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 89.9 mph at 9°Double: 102.4 mph at 13°Double: 107.6 mph at 20°Out: 101.0 mph at -2°Out: 85.9 mph at -20°Out: 78.0 mph at 36°Out: 87.1 mph at 29°Out: 97.3 mph at 26°Out: 99.5 mph at -7°Out: 102.5 mph at -4°Single: 82.3 mph at 20°Single: 102.7 mph at -12°Out: 90.2 mph at 55°Out: 95.7 mph at 26°Out: 70.5 mph at -14°Out: 87.1 mph at -25°Out: 85.6 mph at 48°Out: 79.3 mph at 7°Single: 66.5 mph at -47°Out: 85.9 mph at 32°Single: 99.8 mph at 5°Out: 106.1 mph at 8°Out: 93.3 mph at 29°Single: 78.6 mph at 21°Out: 95.5 mph at 37°Out: 97.2 mph at -21°Out: 88.1 mph at -15°Out: 85.2 mph at 29°Home run: 107.3 mph at 31°Home run: 107.9 mph at 27°Out: 79.8 mph at 82°Out: 78.4 mph at 47°Single: 102.9 mph at 14°Out: 86.3 mph at 42°Double: 103.2 mph at 20°Home run: 107.0 mph at 28°Out: 76.2 mph at 11°Out: 87.2 mph at -7°Out: 46.7 mph at -72°Home run: 106.2 mph at 36°
45% hit 95+ mph45% in the sweet spot33% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit63.3%60.5%+2.8
2+ total bases42.4%38.2%+4.2
Home run19.9%15.1%+4.8
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+1.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+1.2
Park
+0.6
2+ total bases
Starter
+2.1
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+1.2
Park
+0.9
Home run
Starter
+3.1
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.6
Park
+1.0

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Kazuma Okamoto hits
Where they meet

.324 xwOBA for Kazuma Okamoto in the spots Brandon Williamson throws to righties

The average hitter in those same spots: .305 (+18 points). His best spot against lefties is down-middle, and Brandon Williamson puts 4% of his pitches there. Context only; the projection reads pitch type, not location.

Brandon Williamson · where he throws to right-handed hitters
2% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing2%7% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 25% per swing7%5% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 33% per swing5%7% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 13% per swing7%4% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 17% per swing4%5% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 33% per swing5%5% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 20% per swing5%4% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 17% per swing4%4% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing4%8% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 13% per swing8%19% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 17% per swing19%17% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 10% per swing17%12% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 25% per swing12%
All · 186 pitches · catcher's view
2% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters2%10% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters10%5% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters5%8% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters8%7% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters7%7% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters7%4% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters4%1% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters1%5% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters5%12% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters12%19% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters19%15% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters15%5% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters5%
Cutter · 93 pitches · catcher's view
2% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters2%0% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters0% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters6% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters6%2% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters2%6% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters6%6% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters6%6% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters6%2% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters2%0% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters21% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters21%25% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters25%23% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters23%
Changeup · 48 pitches · catcher's view
0% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters15% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters15%5% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters5%5% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters5%5% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters5%0% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters10% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters10%10% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters10%0% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters20% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters20%10% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters10%15% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters15%5% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters5%
Fastball · 20 pitches · catcher's view
0% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters0% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters22% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters22%6% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters6%0% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters6% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters6%6% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters6%6% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters6%11% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters11%0% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters28% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters28%0% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters17% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters17%
Curveball · 18 pitches · catcher's view

Share of his pitches in each spot; darker is more. Last 90 days.

Kazuma Okamoto · hot and cold vs LHP
xwOBA .224 shrunk (raw .000 on 1 PA) · league .243 · 12 pitches seen.224xwOBA .336 shrunk (raw .417 on 6 PA) · league .296 · 15 pitches seen.336xwOBA .218 shrunk (raw .000 on 2 PA) · league .254 · 11 pitches seen.218xwOBA .368 shrunk (raw .458 on 8 PA) · league .308 · 21 pitches seen.368xwOBA .490 shrunk (raw .701 on 6 PA) · league .385 · 17 pitches seen.490xwOBA .295 shrunk (raw .206 on 6 PA) · league .340 · 23 pitches seen.295xwOBA .321 shrunk (raw .436 on 5 PA) · league .273 · 24 pitches seen.321xwOBA .482 shrunk (raw .658 on 9 PA) · league .350 · 23 pitches seen.482xwOBA .326 shrunk (raw .371 on 7 PA) · league .299 · 16 pitches seen.326xwOBA .318 shrunk (raw .350 on 6 PA) · league .302 · 25 pitches seen.318xwOBA .349 shrunk (raw .352 on 10 PA) · league .346 · 54 pitches seen.349xwOBA .254 shrunk (raw .219 on 12 PA) · league .289 · 60 pitches seen.254xwOBA .316 shrunk (raw .404 on 8 PA) · league .257 · 58 pitches seen.316
vs LHP · 359 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 13% of 8 swings · league 19%13%Whiff 18% of 11 swings · league 21%18%Whiff 50% of 6 swings · league 23%50%Whiff 11% of 19 swings · league 9%11%Whiff 15% of 13 swings · league 10%15%Whiff 21% of 14 swings · league 11%21%Whiff 25% of 16 swings · league 17%25%Whiff 0% of 12 swings · league 14%0%Whiff 18% of 11 swings · league 16%18%Whiff 43% of 7 swings · league 25%43%Whiff 36% of 11 swings · league 29%36%Whiff 64% of 22 swings · league 48%64%Whiff 39% of 18 swings · league 34%39%
vs LHP · 359 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 67% of 12 pitches · league 63%67%Swings at 73% of 15 pitches · league 71%73%Swings at 55% of 11 pitches · league 64%55%Swings at 91% of 21 pitches · league 67%91%Swings at 77% of 17 pitches · league 76%77%Swings at 61% of 23 pitches · league 72%61%Swings at 67% of 24 pitches · league 59%67%Swings at 52% of 23 pitches · league 68%52%Swings at 69% of 16 pitches · league 66%69%Swings at 28% of 25 pitches · league 30%28%Swings at 20% of 54 pitches · league 26%20%Swings at 37% of 60 pitches · league 31%37%Swings at 31% of 58 pitches · league 41%31%
vs LHP · 359 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Kazuma Okamoto against each of Brandon Williamson's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Cutter32%89.6-3″ / +9″.358.34423.4%20.3%24About league average vs these
Fastball31%92.8+9″ / +17″.373.35920.8%17.9%36About league average vs these
Changeup18%84.5+16″ / +5″.333.31931.5%28.6%23About league average vs these
Sweeper9%81.7-14″ / +2″.324.31027.6%25.8%12About league average vs these
Curveball7%73.9-12″ / -13″.307.29327.8%26.4%6Little history vs this shape
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Kazuma Okamoto · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G24.333.500.667.488.6170.0%25.0%0.0%96.0102.40.0%66.7%100.0%
Last 15 G715.231.333.538.370.43113.3%13.3%22.2%90.6107.99.1%45.5%45.5%
Last 30 G1636.300.417.733.472.52313.9%16.7%18.0%92.6109.824.0%48.0%52.0%
90 days3986.253.349.560.395.39325.6%10.5%28.0%91.8109.820.8%50.9%41.5%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 53 balls in play
Ground 26%Line drive 17%Fly ball 43%Pop-up 13%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G517.188.235.250.221.26223.5%5.9%30.8%92.0107.68.3%50.0%33.3%
Last 15 G1446.268.348.537.378.37721.7%10.9%26.6%91.1107.612.9%45.2%45.2%
Last 30 G2986.237.314.447.340.34023.3%10.5%28.0%90.5107.610.5%45.6%40.4%
90 days71211.216.275.392.308.29923.7%7.6%27.4%88.2110.86.9%34.5%33.1%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 145 balls in play
Ground 36%Line drive 20%Fly ball 30%Pop-up 14%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G521.211.286.316.271.33019.0%9.5%26.7%92.8107.66.7%53.3%46.7%
Last 15 G1561.259.344.537.376.39019.7%11.5%25.5%91.0107.911.9%45.2%45.2%
Last 30 G30122.255.344.528.379.39420.5%12.3%25.3%91.2109.814.6%46.3%43.9%
90 days73297.227.296.439.333.32624.2%8.4%27.6%89.2110.810.6%38.9%35.4%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 198 balls in play
Ground 33%Line drive 19%Fly ball 34%Pop-up 14%
Kazuma Okamoto · percentile ranksvs 228 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormHot
Contact rating74Above average
Last 100 pitches26trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.334 / .341results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit9/12
2+ total bases3/12
Home run2/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25LHPChangeup86.389.99.516Out
Sep 25LHPCurveball83.3102.413.892Double
Sep 25RHPCurveball84.4107.6201.249Double
Sep 23RHPSlider86.5101.0-2.302Double play
Sep 23RHPCutter90.585.9-20.042Out
Sep 23RHPCutter91.878.036.106Out
Sep 23RHPCutter89.987.129.031Out
Sep 23RHPFastball96.597.326.439Out
Sep 21RHPCurveball84.799.5-7.202Out
Sep 21RHPSinker94.2102.5-4.302Double play
Sep 21RHPCutter89.082.320.816Single
Sep 20RHPSlider92.5102.7-12.223Single
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25424010
Sep 23400010
Sep 23400002
Sep 21411001
Sep 20511001
Sep 19411000
Sep 18411011
Sep 16400011
Sep 15411001
Sep 14414101

Two strikes

Brandon Williamson CIN · LHPwith two strikes
Brandon Williamson with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Cutter44%36%31.2%22.2%18.3%
Sweeper13%20%40.0%33.3%21.2%
Changeup18%20%37.5%20.0%18.3%
Fastball12%17%0.0%0.0%18.4%
Sinker5%4%0.0%0.0%17.8%
Curveball8%4%0.0%0.0%20.9%
Kazuma Okamoto bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Kazuma Okamoto with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%41.1%41.4%
Whiff%23.5%22.0%
Contact%76.5%78.0%
Chase%37.9%40.7%
wOBA.267.248
Whiff vs his put-away shapes22.3%20.8%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeCBalanced type
wOBA.330
K%24.3%
BB%8.4%
Whiff%13.3%
Barrel%6.7%
Hard-hit%25.7%
Avg EV89.2

Against left-handers, last 90 days

87 PA
wOBA.381
xwOBA vs this mix.378against pitches like his
RV/1001.09
Hard-hit%30.2%
K%25.2%
BB%8.5%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Brandon WilliamsonLHP · CIN vs TOR
3.2projected strikeouts · likely 1 to 6 · 20.7 batters over 4.8 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 60.1%60%≤34 strikeouts: 17.8%18%45 strikeouts: 11.4%11%56 strikeouts: 6.1%6%67 strikeouts: 2.8%3%78 strikeouts: 1.2%1%89+ strikeouts: 0.6%1%9+book 3.5
Over 3.5: 40% (red bars) · under: 60%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%16.1%
BB%8.0%
Whiff%9.5%
Velo88.2
BTB Stuff95
Location100
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff%
Cutter44%9890.512.1%
Changeup20%9886.010.0%
Fastball13%8593.63.2%
Sweeper11%10983.023.1%
Curveball7%8076.90.0%
Sinker4%7593.710.0%
Other2%––0.0%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 226811%9%37%.142
Sep 79017%13%22%.448
Sep 28721%9%33%.381

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Brandon Williamson CIN · LHPvsTOR lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

1 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.8%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameCIN @ TOR →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Kazuma Okamoto: every projection we've made →