MLBengine v14
← CIN at TOR, Sep 27, 2026
2:07 PM CT · Rogers Centre · lineup projected
Hitter · TOR · batting 6Nathan Lukes
Bats leftTalent grade FBalancedHot
.325wOBA vs LHP.280xwOBA vs his mix3.6expected PA
Starter · CINBrandon Williamson
Throws leftBTB Stuff 95Trending Up
3.2projected K16%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Brandon Williamson's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Cutter: 32% usage, 89.6 mph, -2.6″ arm side, +8.9″ rise. Nathan Lukes: wOBA .294 vs league .302 (about even).Cutter 32%Fastball: 31% usage, 92.8 mph, +9.0″ arm side, +16.7″ rise. Nathan Lukes: wOBA .348 vs league .356 (about even).Fastball 31%Changeup: 18% usage, 84.5 mph, +15.7″ arm side, +5.2″ rise. Nathan Lukes: wOBA .306 vs league .314 (about even).Changeup 18%Sweeper: 9% usage, 81.7 mph, -14.0″ arm side, +2.3″ rise. Nathan Lukes: wOBA .239 vs league .247 (about even).Sweeper 9%Curveball: 7% usage, 73.9 mph, -12.0″ arm side, -13.3″ rise. Nathan Lukes: wOBA .278 vs league .286 (about even).Curveball 7%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Nathan Lukes's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Nathan Lukes's last 40 balls in playHit (15)Out (25)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Double: 93.5 mph at 14°Out: 85.2 mph at -15°Single: 97.6 mph at -1°Single: 100.1 mph at 10°Out: 101.1 mph at 22°Single: 97.1 mph at 8°Out: 97.3 mph at -17°Single: 90.3 mph at 1°Out: 84.2 mph at 7°Out: 88.7 mph at 10°Out: 72.7 mph at 46°Out: 79.7 mph at -31°Single: 94.8 mph at 10°Out: 96.2 mph at -9°Out: 98.4 mph at 18°Single: 98.7 mph at 4°Single: 102.5 mph at -2°Out: 94.1 mph at 29°Out: 96.7 mph at 30°Out: 58.9 mph at -62°Out: 99.2 mph at 26°Out: 98.1 mph at 4°Single: 43.2 mph at -58°Out: 61.9 mph at 73°Out: 24.4 mph at -62°Out: 66.7 mph at -44°Single: 63.9 mph at -37°Double: 97.3 mph at 24°Out: 87.5 mph at 9°Out: 92.2 mph at 29°Out: 101.1 mph at 19°Single: 87.6 mph at -11°Out: 75.1 mph at -6°Single: 69.1 mph at 33°Out: 81.6 mph at 37°Out: 91.8 mph at 23°Single: 83.9 mph at -18°Single: 90.6 mph at 2°Out: 73.8 mph at -6°Out: 68.6 mph at -13°
35% hit 95+ mph38% in the sweet spot38% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit63.3%62.0%+1.3
2+ total bases33.7%32.8%+0.9
Home run6.7%7.1%-0.4
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-0.1
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+1.0
Park
+0.3
2+ total bases
Starter
-0.5
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+1.0
Park
+0.5
Home run
Starter
-1.1
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.3
Park
+0.4

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Nathan Lukes hits
Where they meet

.305 xwOBA for Nathan Lukes in the spots Brandon Williamson throws to lefties

The average hitter in those same spots: .308 (-3 points). His best spot against lefties is up-middle, and Brandon Williamson puts 7% of his pitches there. Context only; the projection reads pitch type, not location.

Brandon Williamson · where he throws to left-handed hitters
3% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing3%7% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing7%6% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing6%6% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 14% per swing6%11% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 17% per swing11%4% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 33% per swing4%12% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 71% per swing12%7% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 25% per swing7%2% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 50% per swing2%11% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 50% per swing11%9% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 50% per swing9%20% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 33% per swing20%2% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing2%
All · 127 pitches · catcher's view
2% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters2%11% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters11%9% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters9%4% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters4%15% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters15%7% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters7%7% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters7%7% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters7%0% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters17% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters17%11% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters11%11% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters11%0% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters
Cutter · 46 pitches · catcher's view
0% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters3% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters3%3% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters3%11% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters11%9% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters9%0% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters17% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters17%9% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters9%0% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters0% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters6% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters6%40% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters40%3% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters3%
Sweeper · 35 pitches · catcher's view
11% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters11%0% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters0% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters0% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters11% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters11%0% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters17% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters17%11% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters11%0% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters22% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters22%11% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters11%17% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters17%0% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters
Fastball · 18 pitches · catcher's view

Share of his pitches in each spot; darker is more. Last 90 days.

Nathan Lukes · hot and cold vs LHP
xwOBA .208 shrunk (raw .000 on 2 PA) · league .243 · 3 pitches seen.208xwOBA .390 shrunk (raw .617 on 5 PA) · league .296 · 8 pitches seen.390xwOBA .254 shrunk (raw .255 on 2 PA) · league .254 · 6 pitches seen.254xwOBA .304 shrunk (raw .288 on 3 PA) · league .308 · 11 pitches seen.304xwOBA .354 shrunk (raw .232 on 3 PA) · league .385 · 18 pitches seen.354xwOBA .282 shrunk (raw .106 on 4 PA) · league .340 · 11 pitches seen.282xwOBA .331 shrunk (raw .679 on 2 PA) · league .273 · 16 pitches seen.331xwOBA .332 shrunk (raw .227 on 2 PA) · league .350 · 12 pitches seen.332xwOBA .253 shrunk (raw .143 on 5 PA) · league .299 · 9 pitches seen.253xwOBA .332 shrunk (raw .698 on 1 PA) · league .302 · 17 pitches seen.332xwOBA .316 shrunk (raw .245 on 5 PA) · league .346 · 19 pitches seen.316xwOBA .242 shrunk (raw .191 on 11 PA) · league .289 · 41 pitches seen.242xwOBA .303 shrunk (raw .364 on 9 PA) · league .257 · 28 pitches seen.303
vs LHP · 199 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 50% of 2 swings · league 19%50%Whiff 14% of 7 swings · league 21%14%Whiff 0% of 4 swings · league 23%0%Whiff 17% of 6 swings · league 9%17%Whiff 0% of 8 swings · league 10%0%Whiff 0% of 4 swings · league 11%0%Whiff 14% of 7 swings · league 17%14%Whiff 0% of 8 swings · league 14%0%Whiff 0% of 9 swings · league 16%0%Whiff 0% of 1 swings · league 25%0%Whiff 0% of 8 swings · league 29%0%Whiff 35% of 17 swings · league 48%35%Whiff 0% of 15 swings · league 34%0%
vs LHP · 199 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 67% of 3 pitches · league 63%67%Swings at 88% of 8 pitches · league 71%88%Swings at 67% of 6 pitches · league 64%67%Swings at 55% of 11 pitches · league 67%55%Swings at 44% of 18 pitches · league 76%44%Swings at 36% of 11 pitches · league 72%36%Swings at 44% of 16 pitches · league 59%44%Swings at 67% of 12 pitches · league 68%67%Swings at 100% of 9 pitches · league 66%100%Swings at 6% of 17 pitches · league 30%6%Swings at 42% of 19 pitches · league 26%42%Swings at 42% of 41 pitches · league 31%42%Swings at 54% of 28 pitches · league 41%54%
vs LHP · 199 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Nathan Lukes against each of Brandon Williamson's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Cutter32%89.6-3″ / +9″.294.30216.9%27.2%21About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Fastball31%92.8+9″ / +17″.348.35610.7%17.5%28About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Changeup18%84.5+16″ / +5″.306.31415.8%23.7%16About league average vs these
Sweeper9%81.7-14″ / +2″.239.24724.5%34.2%14About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Curveball7%73.9-12″ / -13″.278.28619.5%28.3%5Little history vs this shape
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Nathan Lukes · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G36.750.8331.000.742.5100.0%16.7%10.0%92.9102.50.0%25.0%25.0%
Last 15 G510.571.667.714.694.5450.0%10.0%6.2%74.3102.50.0%25.0%25.0%
Last 30 G1224.381.435.476.443.3138.3%4.2%9.5%78.6102.50.0%15.0%30.0%
90 days3057.260.315.380.332.28515.8%3.5%10.4%79.9102.50.0%13.6%31.8%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 44 balls in play
Ground 64%Line drive 18%Fly ball 16%Pop-up 2%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G516.357.375.357.325.3956.2%6.2%6.5%92.9101.10.0%57.1%50.0%
Last 15 G1441.289.317.316.284.28414.6%4.9%8.1%87.4101.13.0%36.4%39.4%
Last 30 G2885.329.365.468.374.33212.9%4.7%10.6%89.2105.05.8%43.5%39.1%
90 days71223.265.312.373.314.29613.0%6.3%12.4%86.6106.13.9%34.1%33.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 179 balls in play
Ground 54%Line drive 18%Fly ball 23%Pop-up 5%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G522.444.500.500.439.4264.5%9.1%7.3%92.9102.50.0%50.0%44.4%
Last 15 G1551.333.380.378.358.33111.8%5.9%7.8%84.9102.52.4%34.1%36.6%
Last 30 G30109.340.380.470.389.32811.9%4.6%10.4%86.9105.04.5%37.1%37.1%
90 days73280.264.313.374.317.29413.6%5.7%12.0%85.3106.13.1%30.0%32.7%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 223 balls in play
Ground 56%Line drive 18%Fly ball 22%Pop-up 5%
Nathan Lukes · percentile ranksvs 228 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormHot
Contact rating40Below average
Last 100 pitches100trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.302 / .307results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit9/12
2+ total bases4/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25LHPSinker94.293.514.931Double
Sep 25LHPCurveball82.985.2-15.073Out
Sep 25RHPCurveball86.297.6-1.365Single
Sep 23RHPChangeup84.3100.110.754Single
Sep 23RHPFastball94.7101.122.675Out
Sep 23RHPCutter89.797.18.627Single
Sep 23RHPSinker93.497.3-17.146Fielder's choice
Sep 23LHPSinker93.190.31.241Single
Sep 23RHPSweeper85.984.27.334Out
Sep 23RHPSlider88.288.710.476Out
Sep 23RHPCurveball72.772.746.203Out
Sep 21RHPCutter89.179.7-31.054Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25423000
Sep 23511001
Sep 23422000
Sep 21411010
Sep 20522010
Sep 19200000
Sep 18200000
Sep 16411001
Sep 15311001
Sep 14412001

Two strikes

Brandon Williamson CIN · LHPwith two strikes
Brandon Williamson with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Cutter44%36%31.2%22.2%18.3%
Sweeper13%20%40.0%33.3%21.2%
Changeup18%20%37.5%20.0%18.3%
Fastball12%17%0.0%0.0%18.4%
Sinker5%4%0.0%0.0%17.8%
Curveball8%4%0.0%0.0%20.9%
Nathan Lukes bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Nathan Lukes with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Makes contact on his two-strike stuff more than most
With two strikesHimLeague
K%41.2%44.3%
Whiff%20.0%23.6%
Contact%80.0%76.4%
Chase%36.8%38.0%
wOBA.226.223
Whiff vs his put-away shapes20.2%23.8%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeFBalanced type
wOBA.318
K%13.9%
BB%6.3%
Whiff%6.6%
Barrel%2.5%
Hard-hit%24.4%
Avg EV85.6

Against left-handers, last 90 days

57 PA
wOBA.325
xwOBA vs this mix.280against pitches like his
RV/100-0.45
Hard-hit%16.4%
K%17.8%
BB%5.9%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Brandon WilliamsonLHP · CIN vs TOR
3.2projected strikeouts · likely 1 to 6 · 20.7 batters over 4.8 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 60.1%60%≤34 strikeouts: 17.8%18%45 strikeouts: 11.4%11%56 strikeouts: 6.1%6%67 strikeouts: 2.8%3%78 strikeouts: 1.2%1%89+ strikeouts: 0.6%1%9+book 3.5
Over 3.5: 40% (red bars) · under: 60%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%16.1%
BB%8.0%
Whiff%9.5%
Velo88.2
BTB Stuff95
Location100
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff%
Cutter44%9890.512.1%
Changeup20%9886.010.0%
Fastball13%8593.63.2%
Sweeper11%10983.023.1%
Curveball7%8076.90.0%
Sinker4%7593.710.0%
Other2%––0.0%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 226811%9%37%.142
Sep 79017%13%22%.448
Sep 28721%9%33%.381

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Brandon Williamson CIN · LHPvsTOR lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

1 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.8%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameCIN @ TOR →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Nathan Lukes: every projection we've made →