MLBengine v14
← CLE at KC, Sep 27, 2026
2:10 PM CT · Kauffman Stadium · lineup projected
Hitter · CLE · batting 8Austin Hedges
Bats rightTalent grade FBalancedHot
.371wOBA vs LHP.311xwOBA vs his mix3.4expected PA
Starter · KCDaniel Lynch IV
Throws leftBTB Stuff 92Trending Down
2.4projected K12%K%1.3trips vs this hitter
Daniel Lynch IV's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 34% usage, 93.8 mph, +7.2″ arm side, +15.5″ rise. Austin Hedges: wOBA .319 vs league .357 (pitcher's edge).Fastball 34%Slider: 26% usage, 86.3 mph, -1.0″ arm side, +3.2″ rise. Austin Hedges: wOBA .299 vs league .334 (pitcher's edge).Slider 26%Changeup: 20% usage, 85.0 mph, +13.4″ arm side, +7.8″ rise. Austin Hedges: wOBA .281 vs league .317 (pitcher's edge).Changeup 20%Sinker: 12% usage, 93.7 mph, +15.6″ arm side, +9.8″ rise. Austin Hedges: wOBA .324 vs league .361 (pitcher's edge).Sinker 12%Curveball: 7% usage, 81.7 mph, -2.6″ arm side, -2.9″ rise. Austin Hedges: wOBA .283 vs league .318 (pitcher's edge).Curveball 7%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Austin Hedges's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit52.8%50.9%+1.9
2+ total bases28.1%26.9%+1.2
Home run8.0%8.0%-0.0
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+1.3
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.7
Park
-0.1
2+ total bases
Starter
+1.1
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.6
Park
-0.4
Home run
Starter
+0.7
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.2
Park
-0.9

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Austin Hedges hits
Daniel Lynch IV · where he throws to right-handed hitters
1% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing1%1% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 25% per swing1%5% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 14% per swing5%4% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 13% per swing4%8% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing8%8% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 8% per swing8%4% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 20% per swing4%7% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 4% per swing7%8% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 14% per swing8%1% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing1%18% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 7% per swing18%16% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 42% per swing16%21% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 26% per swing21%
All · 488 pitches · catcher's view
1% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters1%1% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters1%6% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters6%3% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters3%7% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters7%10% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters10%3% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters3%7% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters7%7% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters7%0% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters12% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters12%17% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters17%27% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters27%
Changeup · 163 pitches · catcher's view
0% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters0% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters2% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters2%3% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters3%9% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters9%10% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters10%2% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters2%10% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters10%12% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters12%0% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters19% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters19%8% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters8%25% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters25%
Sinker · 124 pitches · catcher's view
1% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters1%5% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters5%5% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters5%7% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters7%11% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters11%5% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters5%1% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters1%1% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters1%2% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters2%2% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters2%38% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters38%11% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters11%11% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters11%
Fastball · 84 pitches · catcher's view
3% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters3%1% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters1%9% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters9%3% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters3%5% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters5%7% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters7%5% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters5%7% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters7%9% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters9%0% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters16% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters16%25% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters25%9% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters9%
Curveball · 75 pitches · catcher's view
0% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters0% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters0% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters5% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters5%5% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters5%2% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters2%10% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters10%7% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters7%5% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters5%2% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters2%2% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters2%31% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters31%31% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters31%
Slider · 42 pitches · catcher's view

Share of his pitches in each spot; darker is more. Last 90 days.

Pitch by pitch

Austin Hedges against each of Daniel Lynch IV's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball34%93.8+7″ / +16″.319.35718.9%17.2%164Struggles with these
Slider26%86.3-1″ / +3″.299.33429.5%27.4%55Struggles with these
Changeup20%85.0+13″ / +8″.281.31735.4%29.7%87Struggles with these; misses them more than most
Sinker12%93.7+16″ / +10″.324.36117.5%15.2%156Struggles with these
Curveball7%81.7-3″ / -3″.283.31833.1%30.7%51Struggles with these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonight

No pitch-level data for this hitter in the current window.

FormHot
Contact rating28Below average
Last 100 pitches94trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.326 / .295running 31 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit6/12
2+ total bases4/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Two strikes

Daniel Lynch IV KC · LHPwith two strikes
Daniel Lynch IV with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Slider16%31%21.6%18.2%22.2%
Fastball14%24%13.0%9.5%18.4%
Changeup25%21%21.7%13.5%18.3%
Sinker34%19%10.0%14.7%17.8%
Curveball11%5%0.0%0.0%20.9%
Austin Hedges bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Austin Hedges with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Misses his two-strike stuff more than most
With two strikesHimLeague
K%44.3%41.4%
Whiff%25.4%22.0%
Contact%74.6%78.0%
Chase%38.1%40.7%
wOBA.212.248
Whiff vs his put-away shapes24.6%21.4%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeFBalanced type
wOBA.298
K%21.5%
BB%10.7%
Whiff%10.4%
Barrel%3.1%
Hard-hit%22.5%
Avg EV85.0

Against left-handers, last 90 days

65 PA
wOBA.371
xwOBA vs this mix.311against pitches like his
RV/1001.42
Hard-hit%26.8%
K%16.5%
BB%11.4%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Daniel Lynch IVLHP · KC vs CLE
2.4projected strikeouts · likely 1 to 4 · 16.4 batters over 3.8 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 77.9%78%≤34 strikeouts: 12.5%13%45 strikeouts: 6.0%6%56 strikeouts: 2.4%2%67 strikeouts: 0.9%1%78 strikeouts: 0.2%0%89+ strikeouts: 0.1%0%9+book 2.5
Over 2.5: 43% (red bars) · under: 57%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%12.4%
BB%7.7%
Whiff%7.2%
Velo89.3
BTB Stuff92
Location98
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff%
Sinker33%9693.43.5%
Changeup26%8684.88.1%
Fastball16%8993.76.0%
Curveball14%8481.95.2%
Slider12%10587.33.8%
Last 3 startsTrending Down
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 22789%4%41%.580
Sep 167218%8%29%.168
Sep 98114%7%38%.332

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Daniel Lynch IV KC · LHPvsCLE lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

0 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.8%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameCLE @ KC →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Austin Hedges: every projection we've made →