Guardians at Royals
2:10 PM CT · Kauffman Stadium · 69F · Crosswind 6 mph · 24% precip risk
The game
Game totals, win probability and the first inning are research only: in the backtest they don't beat the league-wide rate. Shown as projections, never as plays.
- Carry
- – vs neutral air
- Weather
- 69°F · Crosswind · roof open
- Park factor
- Runs 104 · HR 89 100 = average
- Schedule
- CLE day-after-night; KC day-after-night
Air density from observed temperature, dew point and pressure. It shapes batted balls, not the run total directly.
CLE starter not announced yet.
| Date | Pitches | K% | Whiff% | Hard-hit% | wOBA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 22 | 78 | 9% | 4% | 41% | .580 |
| Sep 16 | 72 | 18% | 8% | 29% | .168 |
| Sep 9 | 81 | 14% | 7% | 38% | .332 |
Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.
0 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight
Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.8%. Red strikes out more, blue less.
Pitch-mix battles
each lineup against the starter it faces| Daniel Lynch IV's pitches | CLE lineup vs that pitch | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pitch | Usage | Velo | BTB Stuff | Whiff% | RV/100 | wOBA | Whiff% | Hard-hit% | Edge |
| Sinker | 33% | 93.4 | 96 | 3.5% | -0.23 | .341 | 4.0% | 29.7% | +0.72 |
| Changeup | 26% | 84.8 | 86 | 8.1% | -3.01 | .322 | 14.9% | 25.7% | +0.73 |
| Fastball | 16% | 93.7 | 89 | 6.0% | 0.94 | .327 | 9.3% | 25.2% | -0.02 |
| Curveball | 14% | 81.9 | 84 | 5.2% | -3.19 | .210 | 9.9% | 12.7% | -0.31 |
| Slider | 12% | 87.3 | 105 | 3.8% | 1.95 | .334 | 12.4% | 19.0% | -0.06 |
Bullpens
No one pitched yesterday.
Ranked on a blend of K-BB% (60%) and wOBA allowed (40%) over the bullpen window. Tired arms are context: in our tests bullpen rest didn't improve run totals.
No one pitched yesterday.
Ranked on a blend of K-BB% (60%) and wOBA allowed (40%) over the bullpen window. Tired arms are context: in our tests bullpen rest didn't improve run totals.
Two strikes
how each starter finishes hitters| Pitch | Overall | 2 strikes | Whiff% | Put-away | League put-away |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slider | 16% | 31% | 21.6% | 18.2% | 22.2% |
| Fastball | 14% | 24% | 13.0% | 9.5% | 18.4% |
| Changeup | 25% | 21% | 21.7% | 13.5% | 18.3% |
| Sinker | 34% | 19% | 10.0% | 14.7% | 17.8% |
| Curveball | 11% | 5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 20.9% |
Guardians lineup
Projected · facing Daniel Lynch IV LHP| Spot | Hitter | 1+ hit | 2+ TB | HR | PA | Matchup (1+ hit) | wOBA vs hand | Talent grade | Type | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Steven Kwan LF · bats L | 71.6% | 39.0% | 3.0% | 4.0 | +1.5 | .373 | A | Contact | Hot |
| 2 | José Ramírez 3B · bats S | 66.5% | 39.5% | 8.1% | 3.9 | +2.5 | .317 | B | Contact | Normal |
| 3 | Chase DeLauter DH · bats L | 67.0% | 40.3% | 9.5% | 3.8 | +1.7 | .367 | A | Power | Cold |
| 4 | Jo Adell RF · bats R | 63.2% | 40.3% | 16.2% | 3.8 | +2.2 | .437 | B | Balanced | Hot |
| 5 | Angel Martínez RF · bats S | 64.6% | 37.5% | 9.6% | 3.7 | +2.6 | .421 | D | Balanced | Hot |
| 6 | David Fry 1B · bats R | 51.7% | 30.3% | 11.1% | 3.6 | +2.5 | .305 | F | Balanced | Hot |
| 7 | Travis Bazzana 2B · bats L | 56.8% | 30.1% | 7.1% | 3.5 | +1.7 | .292 | D | Balanced | Normal |
| 8 | Austin Hedges C · bats R | 52.8% | 28.1% | 8.0% | 3.4 | +1.9 | .371 | F | Balanced | Hot |
| 9 | Brayan Rocchio SS · bats S | 57.8% | 30.4% | 6.2% | 3.3 | +1.5 | .260 | F | Balanced | Cold |
Royals lineup
Projected · facing TBD| Spot | Hitter | 1+ hit | 2+ TB | HR | PA | Matchup (1+ hit) | wOBA vs hand | Talent grade | Type | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carter Jensen C · bats L | 57.8% | 37.3% | 15.6% | 4.0 | -1.0 | – | — | — | Normal |
| 2 | Bobby Witt Jr. SS · bats R | 66.3% | 41.4% | 12.7% | 3.9 | -0.5 | – | — | — | Normal |
| 3 | Jac Caglianone RF · bats L | 66.0% | 40.1% | 11.6% | 3.8 | -0.7 | – | — | — | Normal |
| 4 | Maikel Garcia 3B · bats R | 61.6% | 34.5% | 6.0% | 3.8 | -0.2 | – | — | — | Normal |
| 5 | Vinnie Pasquantino 1B · bats L | 64.9% | 40.6% | 13.3% | 3.7 | -0.8 | – | — | — | Normal |
| 6 | Salvador Perez DH · bats R | 67.3% | 41.5% | 14.5% | 3.6 | -0.5 | – | — | — | Normal |
| 7 | Michael Massey 2B · bats L | 63.2% | 34.0% | 7.1% | 3.5 | -0.4 | – | — | — | Normal |
| 8 | John Rave LF · bats L | 54.0% | 27.7% | 8.0% | 3.4 | -0.6 | – | — | — | Normal |
| 9 | Kyle Isbel CF · bats L | 50.7% | 23.4% | 3.9% | 3.3 | -0.3 | – | — | — | Normal |