MLBengine v14
← CLE at KC, Sep 27, 2026
2:10 PM CT · Kauffman Stadium · lineup projected
Hitter · CLE · batting 9Brayan Rocchio
Switch hitterTalent grade FBalancedCold
.260wOBA vs LHP.259xwOBA vs his mix3.3expected PA
Starter · KCDaniel Lynch IV
Throws leftBTB Stuff 92Trending Down
2.4projected K12%K%1.0trips vs this hitter
Daniel Lynch IV's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 34% usage, 93.8 mph, +7.2″ arm side, +15.5″ rise. Brayan Rocchio: wOBA .330 vs league .357 (pitcher's edge).Fastball 34%Slider: 26% usage, 86.3 mph, -1.0″ arm side, +3.2″ rise. Brayan Rocchio: wOBA .308 vs league .334 (pitcher's edge).Slider 26%Changeup: 20% usage, 85.0 mph, +13.4″ arm side, +7.8″ rise. Brayan Rocchio: wOBA .290 vs league .317 (pitcher's edge).Changeup 20%Sinker: 12% usage, 93.7 mph, +15.6″ arm side, +9.8″ rise. Brayan Rocchio: wOBA .335 vs league .361 (pitcher's edge).Sinker 12%Curveball: 7% usage, 81.7 mph, -2.6″ arm side, -2.9″ rise. Brayan Rocchio: wOBA .292 vs league .318 (pitcher's edge).Curveball 7%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Brayan Rocchio's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Brayan Rocchio's last 40 balls in playHit (12)Out (28)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 93.3 mph at 2°Single: 90.5 mph at 17°Out: 72.4 mph at -17°Out: 62.6 mph at 5°Out: 90.1 mph at 46°Out: 87.2 mph at -17°Out: 91.1 mph at -3°Single: 83.3 mph at 8°Single: 93.5 mph at 13°Out: 90.4 mph at 34°Out: 91.6 mph at -1°Out: 92.0 mph at 51°Double: 90.2 mph at 15°Out: 50.5 mph at -61°Out: 105.9 mph at -25°Double: 89.0 mph at 19°Single: 91.7 mph at 17°Out: 91.1 mph at 18°Out: 72.9 mph at -14°Out: 80.5 mph at 27°Single: 90.7 mph at 1°Double: 88.8 mph at 30°Out: 88.0 mph at -14°Out: 98.5 mph at -8°Single: 89.0 mph at 8°Out: 70.9 mph at -22°Out: 93.0 mph at 32°Single: 101.9 mph at 11°Out: 86.5 mph at 67°Out: 76.4 mph at 2°Out: 96.6 mph at 10°Double: 98.5 mph at 18°Out: 63.8 mph at 55°Out: 88.3 mph at 49°Out: 82.6 mph at 75°Out: 86.8 mph at -3°Out: 69.3 mph at 34°Out: 25.4 mph at 14°Single: 80.4 mph at 17°Out: 92.9 mph at 2°
13% hit 95+ mph40% in the sweet spot30% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit57.8%56.4%+1.5
2+ total bases30.4%29.4%+1.0
Home run6.2%6.5%-0.3
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+0.7
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.8
Park
-0.0
2+ total bases
Starter
+0.5
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.8
Park
-0.3
Home run
Starter
+0.1
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.3
Park
-0.7

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Brayan Rocchio hits
Where they meet

.276 xwOBA for Brayan Rocchio in the spots Daniel Lynch IV throws to righties

The average hitter in those same spots: .307 (-31 points). His best spot against lefties is up-right, and Daniel Lynch IV puts 5% of his pitches there. Context only; the projection reads pitch type, not location.

Daniel Lynch IV · where he throws to right-handed hitters
1% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing1%1% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 25% per swing1%5% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 14% per swing5%4% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 13% per swing4%8% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing8%8% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 8% per swing8%4% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 20% per swing4%7% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 4% per swing7%8% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 14% per swing8%1% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing1%18% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 7% per swing18%16% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 42% per swing16%21% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 26% per swing21%
All · 488 pitches · catcher's view
1% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters1%1% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters1%6% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters6%3% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters3%7% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters7%10% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters10%3% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters3%7% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters7%7% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters7%0% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters12% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters12%17% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters17%27% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters27%
Changeup · 163 pitches · catcher's view
0% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters0% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters2% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters2%3% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters3%9% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters9%10% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters10%2% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters2%10% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters10%12% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters12%0% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters19% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters19%8% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters8%25% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters25%
Sinker · 124 pitches · catcher's view
1% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters1%5% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters5%5% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters5%7% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters7%11% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters11%5% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters5%1% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters1%1% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters1%2% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters2%2% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters2%38% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters38%11% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters11%11% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters11%
Fastball · 84 pitches · catcher's view
3% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters3%1% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters1%9% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters9%3% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters3%5% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters5%7% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters7%5% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters5%7% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters7%9% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters9%0% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters16% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters16%25% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters25%9% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters9%
Curveball · 75 pitches · catcher's view
0% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters0% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters0% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters5% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters5%5% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters5%2% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters2%10% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters10%7% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters7%5% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters5%2% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters2%2% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters2%31% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters31%31% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters31%
Slider · 42 pitches · catcher's view

Share of his pitches in each spot; darker is more. Last 90 days.

Brayan Rocchio · hot and cold vs LHP
xwOBA .215 shrunk (raw .103 on 3 PA) · league .243 · 9 pitches seen.215xwOBA .292 shrunk (raw .285 on 7 PA) · league .296 · 21 pitches seen.292xwOBA .313 shrunk (raw .430 on 6 PA) · league .254 · 15 pitches seen.313xwOBA .292 shrunk (raw .253 on 5 PA) · league .308 · 16 pitches seen.292xwOBA .276 shrunk (raw .089 on 7 PA) · league .385 · 21 pitches seen.276xwOBA .361 shrunk (raw .381 on 12 PA) · league .340 · 27 pitches seen.361xwOBA .239 shrunk (raw .136 on 4 PA) · league .273 · 29 pitches seen.239xwOBA .317 shrunk (raw .282 on 11 PA) · league .350 · 24 pitches seen.317xwOBA .278 shrunk (raw .251 on 9 PA) · league .299 · 21 pitches seen.278xwOBA .342 shrunk (raw .422 on 6 PA) · league .302 · 22 pitches seen.342xwOBA .292 shrunk (raw .162 on 5 PA) · league .346 · 49 pitches seen.292xwOBA .230 shrunk (raw .141 on 8 PA) · league .289 · 52 pitches seen.230xwOBA .246 shrunk (raw .238 on 16 PA) · league .257 · 57 pitches seen.246
vs LHP · 363 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 0% of 5 swings · league 19%0%Whiff 33% of 15 swings · league 21%33%Whiff 23% of 13 swings · league 23%23%Whiff 13% of 15 swings · league 9%13%Whiff 7% of 15 swings · league 10%7%Whiff 10% of 21 swings · league 11%10%Whiff 11% of 18 swings · league 17%11%Whiff 32% of 19 swings · league 14%32%Whiff 7% of 14 swings · league 16%7%Whiff 0% of 6 swings · league 25%0%Whiff 40% of 10 swings · league 29%40%Whiff 56% of 18 swings · league 48%56%Whiff 15% of 27 swings · league 34%15%
vs LHP · 363 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 56% of 9 pitches · league 63%56%Swings at 71% of 21 pitches · league 71%71%Swings at 87% of 15 pitches · league 64%87%Swings at 94% of 16 pitches · league 67%94%Swings at 71% of 21 pitches · league 76%71%Swings at 78% of 27 pitches · league 72%78%Swings at 62% of 29 pitches · league 59%62%Swings at 79% of 24 pitches · league 68%79%Swings at 67% of 21 pitches · league 66%67%Swings at 27% of 22 pitches · league 30%27%Swings at 20% of 49 pitches · league 26%20%Swings at 35% of 52 pitches · league 31%35%Swings at 47% of 57 pitches · league 41%47%
vs LHP · 363 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Brayan Rocchio against each of Daniel Lynch IV's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball34%93.8+7″ / +16″.330.35717.4%17.2%120About league average vs these
Slider26%86.3-1″ / +3″.308.33431.0%27.4%75About league average vs these
Changeup20%85.0+13″ / +8″.290.31737.0%29.7%69About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Sinker12%93.7+16″ / +10″.335.36115.4%15.2%116About league average vs these
Curveball7%81.7-3″ / -3″.292.31834.9%30.7%54About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Brayan Rocchio · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G413.231.231.308.235.28123.1%0.0%22.7%84.593.50.0%0.0%30.0%
Last 15 G1328.185.214.222.198.25517.9%3.6%22.4%81.7101.00.0%9.1%31.8%
Last 30 G2545.163.200.279.211.23717.8%4.4%25.6%82.7102.52.9%14.3%28.6%
90 days53101.191.232.298.246.25816.8%4.0%20.4%84.2104.93.8%16.5%35.4%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 79 balls in play
Ground 47%Line drive 23%Fly ball 23%Pop-up 8%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G36.200.333.200.267.2560.0%16.7%0.0%88.0105.90.0%20.0%20.0%
Last 15 G1130.375.483.500.443.39210.0%13.3%16.4%86.6105.90.0%18.2%54.5%
Last 30 G2668.283.343.450.361.34010.3%5.9%14.8%87.9105.90.0%32.7%45.5%
90 days65183.250.302.399.313.29514.2%5.5%18.6%87.5105.92.1%33.3%38.2%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 144 balls in play
Ground 40%Line drive 23%Fly ball 29%Pop-up 8%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G519.222.263.278.245.27315.8%5.3%15.6%85.6105.90.0%6.7%26.7%
Last 15 G1558.275.351.353.323.32513.8%8.6%19.5%84.2105.90.0%13.6%43.2%
Last 30 G30113.233.286.379.301.29913.3%5.3%19.3%85.9105.91.1%25.6%38.9%
90 days72284.229.278.363.290.28215.1%4.9%19.3%86.3105.92.7%27.4%37.2%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 223 balls in play
Ground 42%Line drive 23%Fly ball 27%Pop-up 8%
Brayan Rocchio · percentile ranksvs 228 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormCold
Contact rating23Poor
Last 100 pitches46trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.285 / .288results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit9/12
2+ total bases4/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25LHPCurveball81.393.32.377Out
Sep 25LHPCutter90.690.517.781Single
Sep 25RHPSinker99.872.4-17.050Out
Sep 24LHPCutter86.962.65.132Out
Sep 24LHPCutter87.290.146.004Out
Sep 23RHPSinker90.887.2-17.086Out
Sep 23RHPSinker92.291.1-3.234Double play
Sep 23RHPChangeup83.383.38.369Single
Sep 22LHPFastball96.193.513.921Single
Sep 22LHPSinker91.690.434.055Out
Sep 22LHPSinker94.691.6-1.267Double play
Sep 22LHPSinker96.192.051.004Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25511011
Sep 24300001
Sep 23311000
Sep 22511001
Sep 19312000
Sep 18423010
Sep 16400011
Sep 15423010
Sep 14311000
Sep 13511001

Two strikes

Daniel Lynch IV KC · LHPwith two strikes
Daniel Lynch IV with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Slider16%31%21.6%18.2%22.2%
Fastball14%24%13.0%9.5%18.4%
Changeup25%21%21.7%13.5%18.3%
Sinker34%19%10.0%14.7%17.8%
Curveball11%5%0.0%0.0%20.9%
Brayan Rocchio bats Swith two strikes, vs this hand
Brayan Rocchio with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%43.8%41.4%
Whiff%24.5%22.0%
Contact%75.5%78.0%
Chase%44.0%40.7%
wOBA.224.248
Whiff vs his put-away shapes23.9%21.4%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeFBalanced type
wOBA.290
K%16.2%
BB%5.0%
Whiff%9.8%
Barrel%2.2%
Hard-hit%22.4%
Avg EV86.5

Against left-handers, last 90 days

100 PA
wOBA.260
xwOBA vs this mix.259against pitches like his
RV/100-1.70
Hard-hit%15.3%
K%17.4%
BB%4.8%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Daniel Lynch IVLHP · KC vs CLE
2.4projected strikeouts · likely 1 to 4 · 16.4 batters over 3.8 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 77.9%78%≤34 strikeouts: 12.5%13%45 strikeouts: 6.0%6%56 strikeouts: 2.4%2%67 strikeouts: 0.9%1%78 strikeouts: 0.2%0%89+ strikeouts: 0.1%0%9+book 2.5
Over 2.5: 43% (red bars) · under: 57%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%12.4%
BB%7.7%
Whiff%7.2%
Velo89.3
BTB Stuff92
Location98
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff%
Sinker33%9693.43.5%
Changeup26%8684.88.1%
Fastball16%8993.76.0%
Curveball14%8481.95.2%
Slider12%10587.33.8%
Last 3 startsTrending Down
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 22789%4%41%.580
Sep 167218%8%29%.168
Sep 98114%7%38%.332

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Daniel Lynch IV KC · LHPvsCLE lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

0 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.8%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameCLE @ KC →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Brayan Rocchio: every projection we've made →