MLBengine v14
← CLE at KC, Sep 27, 2026
2:10 PM CT · Kauffman Stadium · lineup projected
Hitter · CLE · batting 4Jo Adell
Bats rightTalent grade BBalancedHot
.437wOBA vs LHP.392xwOBA vs his mix3.8expected PA
Starter · KCDaniel Lynch IV
Throws leftBTB Stuff 92Trending Down
2.4projected K12%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Daniel Lynch IV's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 34% usage, 93.8 mph, +7.2″ arm side, +15.5″ rise. Jo Adell: wOBA .372 vs league .357 (hitter's edge).Fastball 34%Slider: 26% usage, 86.3 mph, -1.0″ arm side, +3.2″ rise. Jo Adell: wOBA .351 vs league .334 (hitter's edge).Slider 26%Changeup: 20% usage, 85.0 mph, +13.4″ arm side, +7.8″ rise. Jo Adell: wOBA .333 vs league .317 (hitter's edge).Changeup 20%Sinker: 12% usage, 93.7 mph, +15.6″ arm side, +9.8″ rise. Jo Adell: wOBA .378 vs league .361 (hitter's edge).Sinker 12%Curveball: 7% usage, 81.7 mph, -2.6″ arm side, -2.9″ rise. Jo Adell: wOBA .335 vs league .318 (hitter's edge).Curveball 7%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Jo Adell's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Jo Adell's last 40 balls in playHit (12)Out (28)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Double: 108.8 mph at 9°Out: 93.3 mph at 50°Out: 102.8 mph at 40°Out: 96.1 mph at -30°Out: 98.3 mph at -25°Out: 103.5 mph at -12°Out: 98.7 mph at -16°Out: 102.3 mph at 37°Out: 80.7 mph at 35°Out: 77.6 mph at 35°Single: 99.1 mph at -10°Out: 55.9 mph at 57°Out: 88.0 mph at 72°Out: 87.6 mph at 43°Out: 81.9 mph at 63°Single: 97.9 mph at -4°Single: 106.1 mph at 16°Out: 93.6 mph at -39°Out: 92.1 mph at 62°Single: 106.1 mph at -4°Single: 90.2 mph at 11°Out: 93.0 mph at 0°Out: 97.8 mph at 6°Home run: 110.1 mph at 27°Out: 74.2 mph at 15°Out: 107.5 mph at 52°Single: 107.7 mph at 10°Out: 101.2 mph at 1°Out: 31.4 mph at -16°Home run: 116.8 mph at 29°Out: 66.7 mph at 11°Out: 91.8 mph at 4°Double: 80.8 mph at 31°Out: 92.8 mph at 52°Single: 96.4 mph at -10°Out: 106.6 mph at 0°Out: 105.7 mph at -14°Out: 81.7 mph at -6°Single: 107.8 mph at 11°Out: 93.0 mph at 52°
53% hit 95+ mph25% in the sweet spot30% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit63.2%61.1%+2.2
2+ total bases40.3%38.5%+1.9
Home run16.2%15.9%+0.3
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+2.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.6
Park
-0.4
2+ total bases
Starter
+2.2
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.6
Park
-1.0
Home run
Starter
+1.6
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.4
Park
-1.7

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Jo Adell hits
Where they meet

.333 xwOBA for Jo Adell in the spots Daniel Lynch IV throws to righties

The average hitter in those same spots: .307 (+26 points). His best spot against lefties is middle-left, and Daniel Lynch IV puts 4% of his pitches there. Context only; the projection reads pitch type, not location.

Daniel Lynch IV · where he throws to right-handed hitters
1% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing1%1% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 25% per swing1%5% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 14% per swing5%4% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 13% per swing4%8% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing8%8% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 8% per swing8%4% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 20% per swing4%7% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 4% per swing7%8% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 14% per swing8%1% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing1%18% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 7% per swing18%16% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 42% per swing16%21% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 26% per swing21%
All · 488 pitches · catcher's view
1% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters1%1% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters1%6% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters6%3% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters3%7% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters7%10% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters10%3% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters3%7% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters7%7% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters7%0% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters12% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters12%17% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters17%27% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters27%
Changeup · 163 pitches · catcher's view
0% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters0% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters2% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters2%3% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters3%9% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters9%10% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters10%2% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters2%10% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters10%12% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters12%0% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters19% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters19%8% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters8%25% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters25%
Sinker · 124 pitches · catcher's view
1% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters1%5% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters5%5% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters5%7% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters7%11% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters11%5% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters5%1% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters1%1% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters1%2% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters2%2% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters2%38% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters38%11% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters11%11% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters11%
Fastball · 84 pitches · catcher's view
3% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters3%1% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters1%9% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters9%3% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters3%5% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters5%7% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters7%5% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters5%7% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters7%9% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters9%0% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters16% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters16%25% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters25%9% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters9%
Curveball · 75 pitches · catcher's view
0% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters0% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters0% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters5% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters5%5% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters5%2% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters2%10% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters10%7% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters7%5% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters5%2% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters2%2% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters2%31% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters31%31% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters31%
Slider · 42 pitches · catcher's view

Share of his pitches in each spot; darker is more. Last 90 days.

Jo Adell · hot and cold vs LHP
xwOBA .289 shrunk (raw .566 on 2 PA) · league .243 · 12 pitches seen.289xwOBA .272 shrunk (raw .199 on 4 PA) · league .296 · 15 pitches seen.272xwOBA .364 shrunk (raw .553 on 7 PA) · league .254 · 15 pitches seen.364xwOBA .439 shrunk (raw .597 on 10 PA) · league .308 · 19 pitches seen.439xwOBA .315 shrunk (raw .105 on 4 PA) · league .385 · 14 pitches seen.315xwOBA .340 shrunk (raw .341 on 5 PA) · league .340 · 18 pitches seen.340xwOBA .348 shrunk (raw .499 on 6 PA) · league .273 · 14 pitches seen.348xwOBA .400 shrunk (raw .450 on 12 PA) · league .350 · 27 pitches seen.400xwOBA .353 shrunk (raw .406 on 12 PA) · league .299 · 24 pitches seen.353xwOBA .327 shrunk (raw .402 on 4 PA) · league .302 · 32 pitches seen.327xwOBA .367 shrunk (raw .419 on 5 PA) · league .346 · 40 pitches seen.367xwOBA .257 shrunk (raw .202 on 7 PA) · league .289 · 52 pitches seen.257xwOBA .316 shrunk (raw .387 on 10 PA) · league .257 · 51 pitches seen.316
vs LHP · 333 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 22% of 9 swings · league 19%22%Whiff 36% of 11 swings · league 21%36%Whiff 50% of 10 swings · league 23%50%Whiff 18% of 17 swings · league 9%18%Whiff 22% of 9 swings · league 10%22%Whiff 27% of 11 swings · league 11%27%Whiff 11% of 9 swings · league 17%11%Whiff 12% of 26 swings · league 14%12%Whiff 18% of 17 swings · league 16%18%Whiff 18% of 11 swings · league 25%18%Whiff 70% of 10 swings · league 29%70%Whiff 57% of 21 swings · league 48%57%Whiff 50% of 20 swings · league 34%50%
vs LHP · 333 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 75% of 12 pitches · league 63%75%Swings at 73% of 15 pitches · league 71%73%Swings at 67% of 15 pitches · league 64%67%Swings at 90% of 19 pitches · league 67%90%Swings at 64% of 14 pitches · league 76%64%Swings at 61% of 18 pitches · league 72%61%Swings at 64% of 14 pitches · league 59%64%Swings at 96% of 27 pitches · league 68%96%Swings at 71% of 24 pitches · league 66%71%Swings at 34% of 32 pitches · league 30%34%Swings at 25% of 40 pitches · league 26%25%Swings at 40% of 52 pitches · league 31%40%Swings at 39% of 51 pitches · league 41%39%
vs LHP · 333 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Jo Adell against each of Daniel Lynch IV's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball34%93.8+7″ / +16″.372.35722.1%17.2%178About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Slider26%86.3-1″ / +3″.351.33428.7%27.4%55About league average vs these
Changeup20%85.0+13″ / +8″.333.31739.3%29.7%83About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Sinker12%93.7+16″ / +10″.378.36118.6%15.2%142About league average vs these
Curveball7%81.7-3″ / -3″.335.31832.1%30.7%47About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Jo Adell · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G414.167.286.250.254.24921.4%14.3%24.0%95.6108.80.0%66.7%11.1%
Last 15 G823.350.435.550.428.34917.4%13.0%22.0%96.0110.16.2%62.5%25.0%
Last 30 G1639.303.410.455.387.33423.1%12.8%27.8%92.7110.14.2%45.8%20.8%
90 days4490.350.411.662.468.41525.6%7.8%31.5%92.8112.712.3%50.9%36.8%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 57 balls in play
Ground 39%Line drive 21%Fly ball 33%Pop-up 7%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G38.167.375.167.329.4540.0%25.0%25.0%86.5102.30.0%40.0%0.0%
Last 15 G1343.179.256.282.294.33427.9%7.0%26.9%92.0116.83.8%50.0%26.9%
Last 30 G2791.207.275.293.280.29322.0%7.7%21.9%89.4116.81.6%38.7%25.8%
90 days69212.168.245.268.255.30025.0%7.5%25.2%89.4116.85.9%41.2%29.4%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 136 balls in play
Ground 44%Line drive 21%Fly ball 22%Pop-up 13%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G522.167.318.222.279.31713.6%18.2%24.3%92.3108.80.0%57.1%7.1%
Last 15 G1566.237.318.373.342.34024.2%9.1%25.2%93.5116.84.8%54.8%26.2%
Last 30 G30130.235.315.339.312.30522.3%9.2%23.7%90.3116.82.3%40.7%24.4%
90 days74302.222.295.385.318.33525.2%7.6%27.1%90.4116.87.8%44.0%31.6%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 193 balls in play
Ground 43%Line drive 21%Fly ball 25%Pop-up 11%
Jo Adell · percentile ranksvs 228 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormHot
Contact rating72Above average
Last 100 pitches20trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.321 / .339running 18 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit10/12
2+ total bases4/12
Home run2/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25LHPFastball90.5108.89.790Double
Sep 25LHPChangeup80.993.350.012Out
Sep 25LHPChangeup84.3102.840.432Out
Sep 24LHPSinker89.696.1-30.065Out
Sep 24LHPSinker88.898.3-25.127Out
Sep 24LHPFastball93.1103.5-12.300Out
Sep 23RHPCutter89.098.7-16.159Out
Sep 23RHPCutter88.4102.337.717Out
Sep 22LHPFastball95.980.735.046Out
Sep 22LHPFastball95.677.635.067Out
Sep 22LHPSinker96.299.1-10.251Single
Sep 20RHPFastball96.155.957.003Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25512020
Sep 24400001
Sep 23400011
Sep 22511011
Sep 20411000
Sep 19522001
Sep 18411002
Sep 16411012
Sep 15414100
Sep 14411001

Two strikes

Daniel Lynch IV KC · LHPwith two strikes
Daniel Lynch IV with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Slider16%31%21.6%18.2%22.2%
Fastball14%24%13.0%9.5%18.4%
Changeup25%21%21.7%13.5%18.3%
Sinker34%19%10.0%14.7%17.8%
Curveball11%5%0.0%0.0%20.9%
Jo Adell bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Jo Adell with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%43.6%41.4%
Whiff%22.2%22.0%
Contact%77.8%78.0%
Chase%37.5%40.7%
wOBA.257.248
Whiff vs his put-away shapes21.7%21.4%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeBBalanced type
wOBA.327
K%25.2%
BB%7.5%
Whiff%13.3%
Barrel%5.9%
Hard-hit%28.5%
Avg EV90.4

Against left-handers, last 90 days

89 PA
wOBA.437
xwOBA vs this mix.392against pitches like his
RV/1002.16
Hard-hit%31.5%
K%25.5%
BB%7.7%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Daniel Lynch IVLHP · KC vs CLE
2.4projected strikeouts · likely 1 to 4 · 16.4 batters over 3.8 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 77.9%78%≤34 strikeouts: 12.5%13%45 strikeouts: 6.0%6%56 strikeouts: 2.4%2%67 strikeouts: 0.9%1%78 strikeouts: 0.2%0%89+ strikeouts: 0.1%0%9+book 2.5
Over 2.5: 43% (red bars) · under: 57%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%12.4%
BB%7.7%
Whiff%7.2%
Velo89.3
BTB Stuff92
Location98
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff%
Sinker33%9693.43.5%
Changeup26%8684.88.1%
Fastball16%8993.76.0%
Curveball14%8481.95.2%
Slider12%10587.33.8%
Last 3 startsTrending Down
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 22789%4%41%.580
Sep 167218%8%29%.168
Sep 98114%7%38%.332

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Daniel Lynch IV KC · LHPvsCLE lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

0 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.8%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameCLE @ KC →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Jo Adell: every projection we've made →