40% hit 95+ mph30% in the sweet spot35% fell for hits
| Market | BTB | Without the matchup | Matchup |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1+ hit | 54.0% | 54.6% | -0.6 |
| 2+ total bases | 27.7% | 28.7% | -1.0 |
| Home run | 8.0% | 9.3% | -1.4 |
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
0.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen-0.2
Park-0.3
2+ total bases
Starter
0.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen-0.3
Park-0.7
Home run
Starter
0.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen-0.3
Park-1.1
Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.
Zone battle
where he pitches, where John Rave hitsJohn Rave · hot and cold vs RHP
better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.
Statcast
opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonightJohn Rave · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
| Window | G | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | xwOBA | K% | BB% | Whiff% | Avg EV | Max EV | Barrel% | Hard-hit% | Sweet-spot% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 G | 5 | 17 | .312 | .353 | .375 | .326 | .362 | 23.5% | 5.9% | 21.4% | 78.3 | 105.3 | 16.7% | 41.7% | 33.3% |
| Last 15 G | 13 | 40 | .294 | .400 | .559 | .411 | .372 | 20.0% | 15.0% | 18.8% | 83.3 | 105.3 | 7.7% | 38.5% | 34.6% |
| Last 30 G | 28 | 79 | .232 | .329 | .406 | .342 | .335 | 19.0% | 12.7% | 19.4% | 86.8 | 105.3 | 5.7% | 39.6% | 32.1% |
| 90 days | 38 | 103 | .242 | .330 | .429 | .346 | .343 | 18.4% | 11.7% | 18.9% | 86.2 | 105.3 | 7.0% | 38.0% | 35.2% |
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 71 balls in play
Ground 48%Line drive 21%Fly ball 18%Pop-up 13%
| Window | G | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | xwOBA | K% | BB% | Whiff% | Avg EV | Max EV | Barrel% | Hard-hit% | Sweet-spot% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 G | 3 | 3 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .005 | 66.7% | 0.0% | 50.0% | 87.0 | 87.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Last 15 G | 9 | 11 | .100 | .182 | .100 | .145 | .126 | 54.5% | 9.1% | 36.4% | 83.7 | 97.8 | 0.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| Last 30 G | 18 | 26 | .217 | .280 | .391 | .338 | .244 | 38.5% | 7.7% | 25.0% | 72.6 | 106.5 | 7.1% | 28.6% | 28.6% |
| 90 days | 23 | 36 | .188 | .235 | .312 | .289 | .208 | 33.3% | 5.6% | 22.6% | 71.3 | 106.5 | 4.8% | 19.0% | 23.8% |
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 21 balls in play
Ground 52%Line drive 10%Fly ball 29%Pop-up 10%
| Window | G | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | xwOBA | K% | BB% | Whiff% | Avg EV | Max EV | Barrel% | Hard-hit% | Sweet-spot% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 G | 5 | 20 | .263 | .300 | .316 | .277 | .308 | 30.0% | 5.0% | 26.5% | 79.0 | 105.3 | 15.4% | 38.5% | 30.8% |
| Last 15 G | 15 | 51 | .250 | .353 | .455 | .354 | .319 | 27.5% | 13.7% | 23.1% | 83.4 | 105.3 | 6.7% | 36.7% | 33.3% |
| Last 30 G | 30 | 105 | .228 | .317 | .402 | .341 | .313 | 23.8% | 11.4% | 20.9% | 83.8 | 106.5 | 6.0% | 37.3% | 31.3% |
| 90 days | 41 | 139 | .228 | .307 | .398 | .332 | .310 | 22.3% | 10.1% | 19.9% | 82.8 | 106.5 | 6.5% | 33.7% | 32.6% |
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 92 balls in play
Ground 49%Line drive 19%Fly ball 21%Pop-up 12%
xwOBA43.310
Avg EV982.8
Max EV15106.5
Barrel%506.5%
Hard-hit%2933.7%
Sweet-spot%3132.6%
K%4522.3%
BB%6810.1%
Whiff%6319.9%
Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.
FormNormal
Contact rating46Average
Last 100 pitches42steady
wOBA / xwOBA.315 / .312results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit7/12
2+ total bases3/12
Home run1/12
Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.
Recent contact
| Date | Pitcher | Pitch | Velo | EV | LA | xwOBA | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 25 | RHP | Fastball | 97.4 | 29.9 | -15 | .350 | Single |
| Sep 25 | RHP | Sinker | 91.3 | 79.0 | -9 | .076 | Force out |
| Sep 25 | RHP | Fastball | 95.0 | 94.0 | 35 | .080 | Double play |
| Sep 24 | RHP | Sweeper | 86.1 | 88.3 | 14 | .903 | Single |
| Sep 24 | RHP | Changeup | 79.7 | 66.7 | -28 | .052 | Out |
| Sep 24 | RHP | Fastball | 97.2 | 103.8 | 23 | 1.245 | Double |
| Sep 23 | RHP | Sinker | 95.1 | 97.7 | -13 | .192 | Double play |
| Sep 23 | RHP | Fastball | 98.3 | 43.2 | 37 | .141 | Out |
| Sep 23 | RHP | Sweeper | 82.6 | 100.2 | 31 | .864 | Out |
| Sep 20 | RHP | Fastball | 93.1 | 35.1 | -48 | .282 | Single |
| Sep 20 | RHP | Cutter | 92.8 | 105.3 | -3 | .430 | Out |
| Sep 19 | RHP | Changeup | 89.0 | 96.6 | 11 | .838 | Single |
Total bases, last 10 games★ home run
| Date | PA | H | TB | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 25 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Sep 24 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Sep 23 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Sep 20 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Sep 19 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Sep 18 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Sep 17 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Sep 16 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Sep 15 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Sep 13 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
The hitter
season-level talent readTalent grade—— type
wOBA–
K%–
BB%–
Whiff%–
Barrel%–
Hard-hit%–
Avg EV–
Against right-handers, last 90 days
0 PAwOBA–
xwOBA vs this mix–against pitches like his
RV/100–
Hard-hit%–
K%–
BB%–
Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.
The starter he faces
Starter not announced.
The rest of the gameCLE @ KC →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.John Rave: every projection we've made →