MLBengine v14
← CLE at KC, Sep 27, 2026
2:10 PM CT · Kauffman Stadium · lineup projected
Hitter · CLE · batting 1Steven Kwan
Bats leftTalent grade AContactHot
.373wOBA vs LHP.341xwOBA vs his mix4.0expected PA
Starter · KCDaniel Lynch IV
Throws leftBTB Stuff 92Trending Down
2.4projected K12%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Daniel Lynch IV's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 34% usage, 93.8 mph, +7.2″ arm side, +15.5″ rise. Steven Kwan: wOBA .352 vs league .349 (about even).Fastball 34%Slider: 26% usage, 86.3 mph, -1.0″ arm side, +3.2″ rise. Steven Kwan: wOBA .288 vs league .286 (about even).Slider 26%Changeup: 20% usage, 85.0 mph, +13.4″ arm side, +7.8″ rise. Steven Kwan: wOBA .318 vs league .315 (about even).Changeup 20%Sinker: 12% usage, 93.7 mph, +15.6″ arm side, +9.8″ rise. Steven Kwan: wOBA .332 vs league .329 (about even).Sinker 12%Curveball: 7% usage, 81.7 mph, -2.6″ arm side, -2.9″ rise. Steven Kwan: wOBA .281 vs league .278 (about even).Curveball 7%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Steven Kwan's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Steven Kwan's last 40 balls in playHit (14)Out (26)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 94.6 mph at 28°Out: 28.0 mph at -12°Out: 90.2 mph at -18°Out: 73.5 mph at -47°Out: 92.3 mph at -7°Out: 95.5 mph at 7°Out: 93.4 mph at -13°Single: 89.2 mph at -2°Single: 64.8 mph at 25°Out: 85.2 mph at 34°Out: 97.0 mph at 18°Out: 82.9 mph at 48°Single: 77.9 mph at 16°Single: 82.5 mph at 19°Out: 89.3 mph at 20°Single: 93.3 mph at 12°Single: 92.6 mph at 14°Out: 93.6 mph at 31°Out: 90.3 mph at -14°Out: 81.6 mph at 35°Single: 100.6 mph at 10°Single: 81.7 mph at 6°Out: 82.4 mph at -4°Out: 76.3 mph at 34°Out: 66.2 mph at -21°Out: 85.9 mph at 37°Out: 90.9 mph at 18°Single: 96.1 mph at 7°Out: 71.9 mph at 32°Out: 90.8 mph at -3°Out: 89.5 mph at -11°Single: 65.8 mph at 37°Out: 96.0 mph at 25°Double: 99.2 mph at 12°Single: 91.6 mph at -8°Out: 72.5 mph at 6°Home run: 96.5 mph at 33°Single: 74.4 mph at 20°Out: 92.9 mph at 22°Out: 81.4 mph at 42°
18% hit 95+ mph40% in the sweet spot35% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit71.6%70.1%+1.5
2+ total bases39.0%37.5%+1.5
Home run3.0%3.5%-0.5
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+0.9
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.5
Park
+0.2
2+ total bases
Starter
+0.8
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.5
Park
+0.1
Home run
Starter
-0.2
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
-0.4

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Steven Kwan hits
Where they meet

.324 xwOBA for Steven Kwan in the spots Daniel Lynch IV throws to lefties

The average hitter in those same spots: .306 (+17 points). His best spot against lefties is up and left, outside, and Daniel Lynch IV puts 2% of his pitches there. Context only; the projection reads pitch type, not location.

Daniel Lynch IV · where he throws to left-handed hitters
1% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing1%3% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing3%2% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing2%4% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 25% per swing4%7% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 27% per swing7%9% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 8% per swing9%4% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 33% per swing4%6% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 20% per swing6%9% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing9%2% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing2%15% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing15%20% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 50% per swing20%18% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 19% per swing18%
All · 206 pitches · catcher's view
1% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters1%2% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters2%3% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters3%4% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters4%6% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters6%13% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters13%2% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters2%6% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters6%14% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters14%0% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters18% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters18%6% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters6%28% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters28%
Sinker · 110 pitches · catcher's view
0% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters3% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters3%0% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters4% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters4%7% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters7%6% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters6%6% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters6%9% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters9%4% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters4%3% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters3%6% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters6%46% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters46%6% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters6%
Slider · 68 pitches · catcher's view

Share of his pitches in each spot; darker is more. Last 90 days.

Steven Kwan · hot and cold vs LHP
xwOBA .272 shrunk (raw .340 on 5 PA) · league .243 · 27 pitches seen.272xwOBA .307 shrunk (raw .334 on 5 PA) · league .296 · 23 pitches seen.307xwOBA .224 shrunk (raw .165 on 6 PA) · league .254 · 21 pitches seen.224xwOBA .291 shrunk (raw .261 on 7 PA) · league .308 · 31 pitches seen.291xwOBA .384 shrunk (raw .382 on 12 PA) · league .385 · 29 pitches seen.384xwOBA .352 shrunk (raw .368 on 9 PA) · league .340 · 20 pitches seen.352xwOBA .286 shrunk (raw .300 on 11 PA) · league .273 · 31 pitches seen.286xwOBA .361 shrunk (raw .380 on 7 PA) · league .350 · 25 pitches seen.361xwOBA .309 shrunk (raw .319 on 11 PA) · league .299 · 18 pitches seen.309xwOBA .378 shrunk (raw .559 on 5 PA) · league .302 · 30 pitches seen.378xwOBA .409 shrunk (raw .518 on 7 PA) · league .346 · 42 pitches seen.409xwOBA .324 shrunk (raw .348 on 18 PA) · league .289 · 107 pitches seen.324xwOBA .239 shrunk (raw .184 on 4 PA) · league .257 · 44 pitches seen.239
vs LHP · 448 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 25% of 12 swings · league 19%25%Whiff 0% of 9 swings · league 21%0%Whiff 0% of 9 swings · league 23%0%Whiff 13% of 15 swings · league 9%13%Whiff 0% of 19 swings · league 10%0%Whiff 0% of 12 swings · league 11%0%Whiff 7% of 15 swings · league 17%7%Whiff 0% of 14 swings · league 14%0%Whiff 0% of 12 swings · league 16%0%Whiff 25% of 4 swings · league 25%25%Whiff 0% of 9 swings · league 29%0%Whiff 24% of 17 swings · league 48%24%Whiff 9% of 11 swings · league 34%9%
vs LHP · 448 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 44% of 27 pitches · league 63%44%Swings at 39% of 23 pitches · league 71%39%Swings at 43% of 21 pitches · league 64%43%Swings at 48% of 31 pitches · league 67%48%Swings at 66% of 29 pitches · league 76%66%Swings at 60% of 20 pitches · league 72%60%Swings at 48% of 31 pitches · league 59%48%Swings at 56% of 25 pitches · league 68%56%Swings at 67% of 18 pitches · league 66%67%Swings at 13% of 30 pitches · league 30%13%Swings at 21% of 42 pitches · league 26%21%Swings at 16% of 107 pitches · league 31%16%Swings at 25% of 44 pitches · league 41%25%
vs LHP · 448 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Steven Kwan against each of Daniel Lynch IV's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball34%93.8+7″ / +16″.352.3496.3%18.5%273About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Slider26%86.3-1″ / +3″.288.28618.0%32.1%138About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Changeup20%85.0+13″ / +8″.318.3159.9%25.5%97About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Sinker12%93.7+16″ / +10″.332.3294.1%12.3%309About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Curveball7%81.7-3″ / -3″.281.27817.3%31.3%120About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Steven Kwan · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G313.111.333.111.267.36415.4%23.1%7.7%81.895.50.0%12.5%25.0%
Last 15 G1233.185.312.185.312.33512.1%15.2%7.0%80.8100.60.0%12.5%41.7%
Last 30 G2555.234.333.234.328.32512.7%12.7%7.7%80.0100.60.0%9.8%43.9%
90 days57109.281.402.303.372.34511.0%15.6%7.6%81.0100.60.0%8.9%44.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 79 balls in play
Ground 42%Line drive 28%Fly ball 28%Pop-up 3%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G310.556.600.556.520.5440.0%10.0%0.0%85.397.00.0%11.1%66.7%
Last 15 G1137.419.514.581.492.4245.4%16.2%2.0%84.399.20.0%17.9%46.4%
Last 30 G2681.397.457.521.442.3727.4%9.9%1.5%84.2102.21.5%16.9%46.2%
90 days70219.368.447.474.424.3647.8%12.8%4.4%83.4102.20.6%11.7%46.2%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 171 balls in play
Ground 43%Line drive 33%Fly ball 20%Pop-up 4%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G523.333.455.333.382.4468.7%17.4%3.7%83.797.00.0%11.8%47.1%
Last 15 G1570.310.420.397.407.3828.6%15.7%4.3%82.7100.60.0%15.4%44.2%
Last 30 G30136.333.407.408.395.3539.6%11.0%3.8%82.6102.20.9%14.2%45.3%
90 days75328.341.433.419.407.3588.8%13.7%5.4%82.6102.20.4%10.8%45.6%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 250 balls in play
Ground 43%Line drive 31%Fly ball 22%Pop-up 4%
Steven Kwan · percentile ranksvs 228 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormHot
Contact rating92Top tier
Last 100 pitches99trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.399 / .370running 29 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit8/12
2+ total bases4/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25LHPSlider85.294.628.276Out
Sep 25LHPFastball93.328.0-12–Sac bunt
Sep 25LHPSinker91.990.2-18.120Out
Sep 25RHPSlider86.573.5-47.170Force out
Sep 24LHPSinker88.892.3-7.186Out
Sep 24LHPSweeper77.195.57.533Out
Sep 24LHPFastball90.793.4-13.151Out
Sep 23RHPSinker90.789.2-2.219Single
Sep 23RHPSinker91.664.825.800Single
Sep 23RHPChangeup83.885.234.020Out
Sep 23RHPCutter89.997.018.477Out
Sep 22LHPCurveball78.582.948.008Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25600020
Sep 24400010
Sep 23422000
Sep 22511012
Sep 20433000
Sep 19522000
Sep 18500021
Sep 16400010
Sep 15411010
Sep 14511010

Two strikes

Daniel Lynch IV KC · LHPwith two strikes
Daniel Lynch IV with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Slider16%31%21.6%18.2%22.2%
Fastball14%24%13.0%9.5%18.4%
Changeup25%21%21.7%13.5%18.3%
Sinker34%19%10.0%14.7%17.8%
Curveball11%5%0.0%0.0%20.9%
Steven Kwan bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Steven Kwan with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Makes contact on his two-strike stuff more than most
With two strikesHimLeague
K%26.1%44.3%
Whiff%11.7%23.6%
Contact%88.3%76.4%
Chase%39.4%38.0%
wOBA.265.223
Whiff vs his put-away shapes11.1%22.4%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeAContact type
wOBA.378
K%9.6%
BB%12.8%
Whiff%3.2%
Barrel%0.7%
Hard-hit%9.4%
Avg EV83.2

Against left-handers, last 90 days

108 PA
wOBA.373
xwOBA vs this mix.341against pitches like his
RV/1000.90
Hard-hit%7.8%
K%12.1%
BB%13.3%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Daniel Lynch IVLHP · KC vs CLE
2.4projected strikeouts · likely 1 to 4 · 16.4 batters over 3.8 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 77.9%78%≤34 strikeouts: 12.5%13%45 strikeouts: 6.0%6%56 strikeouts: 2.4%2%67 strikeouts: 0.9%1%78 strikeouts: 0.2%0%89+ strikeouts: 0.1%0%9+book 2.5
Over 2.5: 43% (red bars) · under: 57%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%12.4%
BB%7.7%
Whiff%7.2%
Velo89.3
BTB Stuff92
Location98
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff%
Sinker33%9693.43.5%
Changeup26%8684.88.1%
Fastball16%8993.76.0%
Curveball14%8481.95.2%
Slider12%10587.33.8%
Last 3 startsTrending Down
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 22789%4%41%.580
Sep 167218%8%29%.168
Sep 98114%7%38%.332

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Daniel Lynch IV KC · LHPvsCLE lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

0 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.8%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameCLE @ KC →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Steven Kwan: every projection we've made →