MLBengine v14
← COL at CWS, Sep 27, 2026
2:10 PM CT · Rate Field · lineup projected
Hitter · COL · batting 2Adael Amador
Switch hitterTalent grade FContactNormal
.339wOBA vs LHP.298xwOBA vs his mix3.9expected PA
Starter · CWSAnthony Kay
Throws leftBTB Stuff 106Trending Down
4.5projected K19%K%2.7trips vs this hitter
Anthony Kay's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 31% usage, 95.3 mph, +6.7″ arm side, +15.1″ rise. Adael Amador: wOBA .337 vs league .347 (about even).Fastball 31%Sweeper: 18% usage, 82.7 mph, -12.8″ arm side, +0.4″ rise. Adael Amador: wOBA .297 vs league .308 (about even).Sweeper 18%Cutter: 14% usage, 91.5 mph, -1.3″ arm side, +6.7″ rise. Adael Amador: wOBA .331 vs league .341 (about even).Cutter 14%Sinker: 13% usage, 95.3 mph, +16.2″ arm side, +5.0″ rise. Adael Amador: wOBA .350 vs league .360 (about even).Sinker 13%Changeup: 13% usage, 86.1 mph, +14.0″ arm side, +0.6″ rise. Adael Amador: wOBA .307 vs league .318 (about even).Changeup 13%Slider: 9% usage, 86.2 mph, -4.3″ arm side, -3.3″ rise. Adael Amador: wOBA .289 vs league .300 (about even).Slider 9%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Adael Amador's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Adael Amador's last 40 balls in playHit (10)Out (30)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 55.5 mph at 86°Out: 59.9 mph at 20°Double: 104.1 mph at 20°Out: 97.7 mph at 33°Out: 93.5 mph at 8°Double: 93.6 mph at 28°Out: 65.9 mph at -46°Out: 92.4 mph at 21°Out: 68.5 mph at 49°Out: 99.1 mph at -32°Single: 83.0 mph at 20°Single: 86.3 mph at -4°Out: 95.3 mph at -30°Out: 96.7 mph at 0°Out: 84.7 mph at -26°Out: 85.0 mph at 84°Out: 78.4 mph at 6°Out: 92.8 mph at -4°Out: 76.1 mph at -2°Single: 77.4 mph at -49°Out: 90.4 mph at -26°Out: 85.7 mph at -24°Out: 84.2 mph at 33°Out: 65.5 mph at -24°Single: 94.6 mph at 6°Out: 69.3 mph at -2°Out: 82.6 mph at -70°Out: 64.5 mph at -33°Home run: 102.3 mph at 25°Out: 104.0 mph at -1°Double: 89.7 mph at 24°Out: 92.2 mph at -11°Out: 78.5 mph at -4°Out: 66.6 mph at -66°Out: 90.8 mph at 47°Single: 37.1 mph at 32°Out: 92.5 mph at -7°Single: 99.7 mph at 9°Out: 70.7 mph at -11°Out: 93.9 mph at 6°
20% hit 95+ mph25% in the sweet spot25% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit61.2%61.7%-0.5
2+ total bases31.8%33.1%-1.2
Home run7.8%9.2%-1.4
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-0.1
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
-0.2
2+ total bases
Starter
-0.9
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
-0.2
Home run
Starter
-1.3
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
-0.0

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Adael Amador hits
Where they meet

.296 xwOBA for Adael Amador in the spots Anthony Kay throws to righties

The average hitter in those same spots: .299 (-3 points). His best spot against lefties is middle-left, and Anthony Kay puts 5% of his pitches there. Context only; the projection reads pitch type, not location.

Anthony Kay · where he throws to right-handed hitters
4% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 11% per swing4%4% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 27% per swing4%2% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 20% per swing2%5% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 6% per swing5%7% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 5% per swing7%3% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 7% per swing3%5% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 10% per swing5%5% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 16% per swing5%3% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 22% per swing3%12% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 18% per swing12%8% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 30% per swing8%24% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 49% per swing24%17% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 30% per swing17%
All · 884 pitches · catcher's view
1% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters1%2% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters2%1% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters1%6% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters6%7% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters7%5% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters5%8% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters8%7% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters7%3% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters3%1% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters1%11% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters11%37% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters37%11% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters11%
Sweeper · 210 pitches · catcher's view
8% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters8%10% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters10%8% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters8%6% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters6%8% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters8%4% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters4%3% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters3%3% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters3%4% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters4%22% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters22%12% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters12%4% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters4%8% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters8%
Fastball · 182 pitches · catcher's view
10% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters10%4% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters4%1% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters1%9% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters9%9% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters9%2% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters2%6% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters6%2% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters2%1% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters1%31% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters31%4% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters4%21% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters21%1% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters1%
Cutter · 181 pitches · catcher's view
1% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters1%0% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters0% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters0% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters1% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters1%1% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters1%4% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters4%6% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters6%6% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters6%0% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters6% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters6%25% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters25%52% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters52%
Changeup · 171 pitches · catcher's view
0% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters1% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters1%0% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters0% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters3% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters3%0% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters9% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters9%12% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters12%5% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters5%0% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters1% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters1%53% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters53%16% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters16%
Slider · 76 pitches · catcher's view
5% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters5%2% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters2%0% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters8% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters8%16% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters16%8% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters8%2% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters2%9% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters9%0% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters11% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters11%8% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters8%14% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters14%19% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters19%
Sinker · 64 pitches · catcher's view

Share of his pitches in each spot; darker is more. Last 90 days.

Adael Amador · hot and cold vs LHP
xwOBA .266 shrunk (raw .407 on 2 PA) · league .243 · 3 pitches seen.266xwOBA .287 shrunk (raw .233 on 2 PA) · league .296 · 8 pitches seen.287xwOBA .232 shrunk (raw .146 on 3 PA) · league .254 · 10 pitches seen.232xwOBA .344 shrunk (raw .780 on 1 PA) · league .308 · 1 pitches seen.344xwOBA .371 shrunk (raw .336 on 5 PA) · league .385 · 13 pitches seen.371xwOBA .355 shrunk (raw .442 on 2 PA) · league .340 · 6 pitches seen.355xwOBA .236 shrunk (raw .090 on 3 PA) · league .273 · 12 pitches seen.236xwOBA .306 shrunk (raw .128 on 3 PA) · league .350 · 7 pitches seen.306xwOBA .277 shrunk (raw .148 on 2 PA) · league .299 · 7 pitches seen.277xwOBA .302 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .302 · 4 pitches seenxwOBA .370 shrunk (raw .465 on 3 PA) · league .346 · 28 pitches seen.370xwOBA .284 shrunk (raw .220 on 1 PA) · league .289 · 11 pitches seen.284xwOBA .258 shrunk (raw .261 on 4 PA) · league .257 · 11 pitches seen.258
vs LHP · 121 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 0% of 2 swings · league 19%0%Whiff 0% of 7 swings · league 21%0%Whiff 33% of 6 swings · league 23%33%Whiff 0% of 1 swings · league 9%0%Whiff 0% of 12 swings · league 10%0%Whiff 0% of 6 swings · league 11%0%Whiff 0% of 8 swings · league 17%0%Whiff 0% of 7 swings · league 14%0%Whiff 0% of 5 swings · league 16%0%Whiff 100% of 1 swings · league 25%100%Whiff 33% of 3 swings · league 29%33%Whiff 0% of 2 swings · league 48%0%Whiff 43% of 7 swings · league 34%43%
vs LHP · 121 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 67% of 3 pitches · league 63%67%Swings at 88% of 8 pitches · league 71%88%Swings at 60% of 10 pitches · league 64%60%Swings at 100% of 1 pitches · league 67%100%Swings at 92% of 13 pitches · league 76%92%Swings at 100% of 6 pitches · league 72%100%Swings at 67% of 12 pitches · league 59%67%Swings at 100% of 7 pitches · league 68%100%Swings at 71% of 7 pitches · league 66%71%Swings at 25% of 4 pitches · league 30%25%Swings at 11% of 28 pitches · league 26%11%Swings at 18% of 11 pitches · league 31%18%Swings at 64% of 11 pitches · league 41%64%
vs LHP · 121 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Adael Amador against each of Anthony Kay's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball31%95.3+7″ / +15″.337.34713.2%18.7%17About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Sweeper18%82.7-13″ / +0″.297.30818.6%27.0%6Little history vs this shape
Cutter14%91.5-1″ / +7″.331.34114.7%20.8%10About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Sinker13%95.3+16″ / +5″.350.3608.3%12.1%10About league average vs these
Changeup13%86.1+14″ / +1″.307.31822.3%27.4%9About league average vs these
Slider9%86.2-4″ / -3″.289.30023.0%32.6%9About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Adael Amador · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G24.250.250.250.225.3160.0%0.0%0.0%85.899.10.0%25.0%50.0%
Last 15 G818.188.278.250.247.22516.7%11.1%11.1%82.399.10.0%7.7%30.8%
Last 30 G1532.321.406.393.365.29315.6%12.5%10.4%83.0108.54.3%21.7%39.1%
90 days1532.321.406.393.365.29315.6%12.5%10.4%83.0108.54.3%21.7%39.1%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 23 balls in play
Ground 52%Line drive 22%Fly ball 22%Pop-up 4%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G511.333.455.556.436.3439.1%18.2%20.0%82.1104.112.5%25.0%50.0%
Last 15 G1335.258.343.516.369.3075.7%8.6%14.8%84.9104.210.3%27.6%24.1%
Last 30 G2355.250.333.562.382.26710.9%9.1%13.9%82.4104.27.0%25.6%20.9%
90 days2355.250.333.562.382.26710.9%9.1%13.9%82.4104.27.0%25.6%20.9%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 43 balls in play
Ground 58%Line drive 9%Fly ball 16%Pop-up 16%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G515.308.400.462.380.3366.7%13.3%14.8%83.3104.18.3%25.0%50.0%
Last 15 G1553.234.321.426.327.2799.4%9.4%13.2%84.1104.27.1%21.4%26.2%
Last 30 G2587.276.360.500.376.27712.6%10.3%12.5%82.6108.56.1%24.2%27.3%
90 days2587.276.360.500.376.27712.6%10.3%12.5%82.6108.56.1%24.2%27.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 66 balls in play
Ground 56%Line drive 14%Fly ball 18%Pop-up 12%
Adael Amador · percentile ranksvs 228 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating35Below average
Last 100 pitches14trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.371 / .301running 70 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit8/12
2+ total bases4/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPSlider84.755.586.007Out
Sep 25RHPFastball98.059.920.257Out
Sep 24RHPSinker95.0104.120.699Double
Sep 24RHPCutter89.397.733.423Out
Sep 23RHPCutter91.293.58.460Out
Sep 23RHPChangeup88.393.628.215Double
Sep 23RHPChangeup91.165.9-46.176Force out
Sep 23LHPSweeper86.892.421.264Out
Sep 20LHPCurveball81.268.549.164Out
Sep 20LHPChangeup84.499.1-32.081Out
Sep 20LHPFastball92.583.020.754Single
Sep 19RHPSinker97.886.3-4.138Single
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25400011
Sep 24212000
Sep 23412000
Sep 20411010
Sep 19111000
Sep 18400000
Sep 17100010
Sep 16400002
Sep 15511000
Sep 14511010

Two strikes

Anthony Kay CWS · LHPwith two strikes
Anthony Kay with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Slider8%24%23.5%15.3%22.2%
Fastball19%21%19.6%16.4%18.4%
Sinker18%17%16.7%21.3%17.8%
Changeup14%16%25.0%14.5%18.3%
Sweeper25%13%37.0%27.3%21.2%
Cutter16%9%8.0%6.2%18.3%
Adael Amador bats Swith two strikes, vs this hand
Adael Amador with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%40.7%41.4%
Whiff%19.0%22.0%
Contact%81.0%78.0%
Chase%41.5%40.7%
wOBA.241.248
Whiff vs his put-away shapes18.9%21.8%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeFContact type
wOBA.301
K%18.7%
BB%9.0%
Whiff%9.0%
Barrel%3.7%
Hard-hit%19.9%
Avg EV83.8

Against left-handers, last 90 days

32 PA
wOBA.339
xwOBA vs this mix.298against pitches like his
RV/1000.47
Hard-hit%21.4%
K%19.3%
BB%9.5%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Anthony KayLHP · CWS vs COL
4.5projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 7 · 21.6 batters over 5.1 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 34.7%35%≤34 strikeouts: 19.0%19%45 strikeouts: 16.9%17%56 strikeouts: 12.6%13%67 strikeouts: 8.2%8%78 strikeouts: 4.6%5%89+ strikeouts: 4.0%4%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 46% (red bars) · under: 54%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%18.6%
BB%7.1%
Whiff%11.2%
Velo90.0
BTB Stuff106
Location100
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff%
Sweeper25%10982.811.8%
Fastball19%9996.010.6%
Sinker17%11395.66.9%
Cutter16%12292.68.5%
Changeup14%7886.418.3%
Slider8%12286.612.6%
Last 3 startsTrending Down
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 226520%11%35%.458
Sep 166618%12%6%.241
Sep 116711%2%26%.347

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Anthony Kay CWS · LHPvsCOL lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

3 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.8%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameCOL @ CWS →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Adael Amador: every projection we've made →