COL at CWS, Sep 27, 2026

The game

COL runs3.8win 45%

CWS runs4.3win 55%

Total8.1no pre-game book line

No run, 1st inning56%research only

Game totals, win probability and the first inning are research only: in the backtest they don't beat the league-wide rate. Shown as projections, never as plays.

Park and air

Carry: – vs neutral air
Weather: 60°F · Wind in · roof open
Park factor: Runs 98 · HR 99 100 = average
Schedule: COL day-after-night; CWS day-after-night

Air density from observed temperature, dew point and pressure. It shapes batted balls, not the run total directly.

COL starter

Kyle FreelandLHP · COL vs CWS

4.5projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 7 · 22.6 batters over 5.3 innings

Over 4.5: 46% (red bars) · under: 54%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.

K%17.4%

BB%4.6%

Whiff%10.3%

Velo87.4

BTB Stuff85

Location101

PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff%

Cutter23%8388.07.5%

Curveball22%9682.620.4%

Fastball20%8891.24.4%

Sinker17%8090.96.4%

Changeup12%6886.010.2%

Sweeper7%9483.214.1%

Last 3 startsTrending Down

Date	Pitches	K%	Whiff%	Hard-hit%	wOBA
Sep 22	69	11%	6%	58%	.537
Sep 15	50	5%	8%	55%	.525
Aug 19	66	28%	6%	22%	.461

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Kyle Freeland COL · LHPvsCWS lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

4 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

1Sam Antonacci20%

2Kyle Teel31%

3Miguel Vargas21%

4Munetaka Murakami33%

5Andrew Benintendi24%

6Tristan Peters21%

7Randal Grichuk20%

8Colson Montgomery29%

9Braden Montgomery28%

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.8%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

CWS starter

Anthony KayLHP · CWS vs COL

4.5projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 7 · 21.6 batters over 5.1 innings

Over 4.5: 46% (red bars) · under: 54%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.

K%18.6%

BB%7.1%

Whiff%11.2%

Velo90.0

BTB Stuff106

Location100

PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff%

Sweeper25%10982.811.8%

Fastball19%9996.010.6%

Sinker17%11395.66.9%

Cutter16%12292.68.5%

Changeup14%7886.418.3%

Slider8%12286.612.6%

Last 3 startsTrending Down

Date	Pitches	K%	Whiff%	Hard-hit%	wOBA
Sep 22	65	20%	11%	35%	.458
Sep 16	66	18%	12%	6%	.241
Sep 11	67	11%	2%	26%	.347

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Anthony Kay CWS · LHPvsCOL lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

3 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

1Jake McCarthy15%

2Adael Amador19%

3Hunter Goodman28%

4TJ Rumfield13%

5Kyle Karros17%

6Mickey Moniak28%

7Troy Johnston22%

8Zac Veen30%

9Ezequiel Tovar25%

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.8%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

Pitch-mix battles

each lineup against the starter it faces

Anthony Kay CWS · LHPvsCOL lineuppitch-mix battle

Anthony Kay's whiff and run value per 100 pitches next to what this lineup has done against the same pitch type. Edge is positive when the pitch favors the hitters.
	Anthony Kay's pitches					COL lineup vs that pitch
Pitch	Usage	Velo	BTB Stuff	Whiff%	RV/100	wOBA	Whiff%	Hard-hit%	Edge
Sweeper	25%	82.8	109	11.8%	-0.47	.301	12.4%	17.0%	-0.01
Fastball	19%	96.0	99	10.6%	0.23	.372	9.4%	21.7%	+0.62
Sinker	17%	95.6	113	6.9%	1.15	.394	5.2%	30.6%	+0.75
Cutter	16%	92.6	122	8.5%	-0.50	.377	10.9%	32.7%	+0.42
Changeup	14%	86.4	78	18.3%	-1.35	.256	17.1%	24.5%	-0.52
Slider	8%	86.6	122	12.6%	-4.48	.258	17.6%	13.5%	-0.03

Kyle Freeland COL · LHPvsCWS lineuppitch-mix battle

Kyle Freeland's whiff and run value per 100 pitches next to what this lineup has done against the same pitch type. Edge is positive when the pitch favors the hitters.
	Kyle Freeland's pitches					CWS lineup vs that pitch
Pitch	Usage	Velo	BTB Stuff	Whiff%	RV/100	wOBA	Whiff%	Hard-hit%	Edge
Cutter	23%	88.0	83	7.5%	-1.16	.398	11.3%	28.8%	+1.31
Curveball	22%	82.6	96	20.4%	-0.97	.243	11.6%	16.3%	-0.57
Fastball	20%	91.2	88	4.4%	0.01	.348	10.5%	31.5%	+0.30
Sinker	17%	90.9	80	6.4%	0.45	.390	6.4%	28.3%	+0.67
Changeup	12%	86.0	68	10.2%	0.01	.329	13.8%	25.0%	+0.17
Sweeper	7%	83.2	94	14.1%	0.30	.305	8.6%	18.0%	+0.02

Bullpens

Rockies bullpen#28 of 30

K%18.2%

BB%9.6%

K-BB%8.6%

SwStr%9.2%

wOBA allowed.356

Arms available15 / 15

No one pitched yesterday.

Ranked on a blend of K-BB% (60%) and wOBA allowed (40%) over the bullpen window. Tired arms are context: in our tests bullpen rest didn't improve run totals.

White Sox bullpen#13 of 30

K%23.1%

BB%8.3%

K-BB%14.7%

SwStr%10.7%

wOBA allowed.331

Arms available18 / 18

No one pitched yesterday.

Ranked on a blend of K-BB% (60%) and wOBA allowed (40%) over the bullpen window. Tired arms are context: in our tests bullpen rest didn't improve run totals.

Two strikes

how each starter finishes hitters

Kyle Freeland COL · LHPwith two strikes

Usage, overall to two strikesOverall Two strikes

Curveball+12 pts

Fastball+1 pts

Cutter-10 pts

Sweeper+6 pts

Changeup+1 pts

Sinker-10 pts

Kyle Freeland with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
Pitch	Overall	2 strikes	Whiff%	Put-away	League put-away
Curveball	22%	34%	36.4%	24.4%	20.9%
Fastball	20%	21%	6.7%	7.4%	18.4%
Cutter	23%	13%	12.0%	14.3%	18.3%
Sweeper	7%	13%	26.1%	24.2%	21.2%
Changeup	12%	13%	7.1%	9.1%	18.3%
Sinker	17%	7%	13.3%	15.8%	17.8%

Anthony Kay CWS · LHPwith two strikes

Usage, overall to two strikesOverall Two strikes

Slider+16 pts

Fastball+2 pts

Sinker-0 pts

Changeup+2 pts

Sweeper-12 pts

Cutter-7 pts

Anthony Kay with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
Pitch	Overall	2 strikes	Whiff%	Put-away	League put-away
Slider	8%	24%	23.5%	15.3%	22.2%
Fastball	19%	21%	19.6%	16.4%	18.4%
Sinker	18%	17%	16.7%	21.3%	17.8%
Changeup	14%	16%	25.0%	14.5%	18.3%
Sweeper	25%	13%	37.0%	27.3%	21.2%
Cutter	16%	9%	8.0%	6.2%	18.3%

Rockies lineup

Projected · facing Anthony Kay LHP

Matchup: points of 1+ hit chance against the same hitter facing a league-average starter, bullpen and park. wOBA vs hand: the last 90 days against pitchers of the starter's hand. Talent: season-level grade. Form is context and doesn't move a projection.
Spot	Hitter	1+ hit	2+ TB	HR	PA	Matchup (1+ hit)	wOBA vs hand	Talent grade	Type	Form
1	Jake McCarthy LF · bats L	66.8%	36.6%	8.0%	4.0	-0.9	.388	F	Balanced	Cold
2	Adael Amador 2B · bats S	61.2%	31.8%	7.8%	3.9	-0.5	.339	F	Contact	Normal
3	Hunter Goodman C · bats R	61.0%	38.3%	17.2%	3.8	+0.0	.336	C	Balanced	Hot
4	TJ Rumfield 1B · bats L	62.7%	32.8%	5.9%	3.8	+0.2	.371	B	Contact	Normal
5	Kyle Karros 3B · bats R	58.0%	32.2%	9.7%	3.7	-0.7	.382	C	Balanced	Normal
6	Mickey Moniak LF · bats L	55.2%	32.0%	10.8%	3.6	-1.3	.279	Avg	Balanced	Hot
7	Troy Johnston RF · bats L	58.4%	30.9%	6.2%	3.5	+0.3	.288	C	Balanced	Cold
8	Zac Veen DH · bats L	48.3%	24.8%	7.3%	3.4	-0.1	.319	F	Balanced	Normal
9	Ezequiel Tovar SS · bats R	54.4%	29.4%	9.8%	3.3	+0.1	.270	F	Balanced	Normal

White Sox lineup

Projected · facing Kyle Freeland LHP