MLBengine v14
← COL at CWS, Sep 27, 2026
2:10 PM CT · Rate Field · lineup projected
Hitter · CWS · batting 9Braden Montgomery
Switch hitterTalent grade AvgBalancedNormal
.212wOBA vs LHP.287xwOBA vs his mix3.3expected PA
Starter · COLKyle Freeland
Throws leftBTB Stuff 85Trending Down
4.5projected K17%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Kyle Freeland's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 24% usage, 91.1 mph, +7.0″ arm side, +14.0″ rise. Braden Montgomery: wOBA .336 vs league .362 (pitcher's edge).Fastball 24%Cutter: 21% usage, 86.2 mph, -1.2″ arm side, +5.4″ rise. Braden Montgomery: wOBA .312 vs league .338 (pitcher's edge).Cutter 21%Curveball: 20% usage, 81.9 mph, -2.4″ arm side, -6.2″ rise. Braden Montgomery: wOBA .275 vs league .301 (pitcher's edge).Curveball 20%Sinker: 18% usage, 90.4 mph, +13.3″ arm side, +6.7″ rise. Braden Montgomery: wOBA .338 vs league .364 (pitcher's edge).Sinker 18%Changeup: 12% usage, 85.4 mph, +11.4″ arm side, +6.7″ rise. Braden Montgomery: wOBA .291 vs league .317 (pitcher's edge).Changeup 12%Sweeper: 4% usage, 83.4 mph, -9.2″ arm side, -3.3″ rise. Braden Montgomery: wOBA .274 vs league .300 (pitcher's edge).Sweeper 4%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Braden Montgomery's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit54.9%52.7%+2.2
2+ total bases28.6%27.5%+1.1
Home run7.8%8.1%-0.3
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+2.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.4
Park
-0.2
2+ total bases
Starter
+0.8
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.5
Park
-0.2
Home run
Starter
-0.6
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.3
Park
+0.1

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Braden Montgomery hits
Kyle Freeland · where he throws to right-handed hitters
2% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing2%3% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 25% per swing3%3% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 14% per swing3%3% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing3%7% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 6% per swing7%6% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 4% per swing6%4% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 11% per swing4%7% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 12% per swing7%4% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 20% per swing4%6% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 7% per swing6%18% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 24% per swing18%19% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 44% per swing19%16% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 31% per swing16%
All · 613 pitches · catcher's view
0% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters0% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters3% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters3%3% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters3%5% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters5%4% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters4%8% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters8%8% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters8%3% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters3%0% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters11% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters11%46% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters46%10% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters10%
Curveball · 151 pitches · catcher's view
3% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters3%6% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters6%3% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters3%3% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters3%6% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters6%8% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters8%3% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters3%11% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters11%5% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters5%11% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters11%21% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters21%10% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters10%11% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters11%
Cutter · 145 pitches · catcher's view
6% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters6%5% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters5%3% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters3%7% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters7%10% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters10%7% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters7%1% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters1%3% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters3%3% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters3%12% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters12%30% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters30%6% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters6%9% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters9%
Fastball · 122 pitches · catcher's view
0% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters2% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters2%2% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters2%1% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters1%7% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters7%8% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters8%3% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters3%7% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters7%5% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters5%1% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters1%6% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters6%16% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters16%41% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters41%
Changeup · 97 pitches · catcher's view
3% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters3%4% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters4%1% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters1%1% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters1%12% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters12%7% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters7%5% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters5%7% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters7%8% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters8%1% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters1%26% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters26%7% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters7%18% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters18%
Sinker · 76 pitches · catcher's view
5% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters5%5% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters5%5% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters5%0% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters5% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters5%0% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters9% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters9%5% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters5%0% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters18% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters18%14% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters14%27% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters27%9% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters9%
Sweeper · 22 pitches · catcher's view

Share of his pitches in each spot; darker is more. Last 90 days.

Pitch by pitch

Braden Montgomery against each of Kyle Freeland's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball24%91.1+7″ / +14″.336.36223.3%16.0%30About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Cutter21%86.2-1″ / +5″.312.33835.3%25.7%16About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Curveball20%81.9-2″ / -6″.275.30139.7%33.2%9About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Sinker18%90.4+13″ / +7″.338.36421.0%14.3%18About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Changeup12%85.4+11″ / +7″.291.31733.3%28.2%14About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Sweeper4%83.4-9″ / -3″.274.30037.3%30.9%13About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonight

No pitch-level data for this hitter in the current window.

FormNormal
Contact rating65Above average
Last 100 pitches42trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.299 / .332running 33 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit6/12
2+ total bases5/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Two strikes

Kyle Freeland COL · LHPwith two strikes
Kyle Freeland with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Curveball22%34%36.4%24.4%20.9%
Fastball20%21%6.7%7.4%18.4%
Cutter23%13%12.0%14.3%18.3%
Sweeper7%13%26.1%24.2%21.2%
Changeup12%13%7.1%9.1%18.3%
Sinker17%7%13.3%15.8%17.8%
Braden Montgomery bats Swith two strikes, vs this hand
Braden Montgomery with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Misses his two-strike stuff more than most
With two strikesHimLeague
K%46.5%41.4%
Whiff%28.0%22.0%
Contact%72.0%78.0%
Chase%39.9%40.7%
wOBA.228.248
Whiff vs his put-away shapes31.2%25.0%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeAvgBalanced type
wOBA.305
K%19.4%
BB%10.7%
Whiff%13.2%
Barrel%3.3%
Hard-hit%27.7%
Avg EV88.6

Against left-handers, last 90 days

82 PA
wOBA.212
xwOBA vs this mix.287against pitches like his
RV/100-2.09
Hard-hit%22.0%
K%27.5%
BB%11.1%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Kyle FreelandLHP · COL vs CWS
4.5projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 7 · 22.6 batters over 5.3 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 35.2%35%≤34 strikeouts: 19.0%19%45 strikeouts: 16.9%17%56 strikeouts: 12.5%12%67 strikeouts: 8.0%8%78 strikeouts: 4.5%5%89+ strikeouts: 3.9%4%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 46% (red bars) · under: 54%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%17.4%
BB%4.6%
Whiff%10.3%
Velo87.4
BTB Stuff85
Location101
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff%
Cutter23%8388.07.5%
Curveball22%9682.620.4%
Fastball20%8891.24.4%
Sinker17%8090.96.4%
Changeup12%6886.010.2%
Sweeper7%9483.214.1%
Last 3 startsTrending Down
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 226911%6%58%.537
Sep 15505%8%55%.525
Aug 196628%6%22%.461

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Kyle Freeland COL · LHPvsCWS lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

4 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.8%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameCOL @ CWS →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Braden Montgomery: every projection we've made →