MLBengine v14
← COL at CWS, Sep 27, 2026
2:10 PM CT · Rate Field · lineup projected
Hitter · COL · batting 9Ezequiel Tovar
Bats rightTalent grade FBalancedNormal
.270wOBA vs LHP.269xwOBA vs his mix3.3expected PA
Starter · CWSAnthony Kay
Throws leftBTB Stuff 106Trending Down
4.5projected K19%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Anthony Kay's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 31% usage, 95.3 mph, +6.7″ arm side, +15.1″ rise. Ezequiel Tovar: wOBA .332 vs league .347 (about even).Fastball 31%Sweeper: 18% usage, 82.7 mph, -12.8″ arm side, +0.4″ rise. Ezequiel Tovar: wOBA .293 vs league .308 (pitcher's edge).Sweeper 18%Cutter: 14% usage, 91.5 mph, -1.3″ arm side, +6.7″ rise. Ezequiel Tovar: wOBA .327 vs league .341 (about even).Cutter 14%Sinker: 13% usage, 95.3 mph, +16.2″ arm side, +5.0″ rise. Ezequiel Tovar: wOBA .346 vs league .360 (about even).Sinker 13%Changeup: 13% usage, 86.1 mph, +14.0″ arm side, +0.6″ rise. Ezequiel Tovar: wOBA .304 vs league .318 (about even).Changeup 13%Slider: 9% usage, 86.2 mph, -4.3″ arm side, -3.3″ rise. Ezequiel Tovar: wOBA .285 vs league .300 (pitcher's edge).Slider 9%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Ezequiel Tovar's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Ezequiel Tovar's last 40 balls in playHit (15)Out (25)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Double: 77.9 mph at 31°Out: 49.2 mph at -48°Out: 73.3 mph at 53°Out: 97.7 mph at 64°Out: 47.8 mph at -77°Single: 66.5 mph at 24°Out: 67.1 mph at 71°Home run: 101.5 mph at 25°Out: 72.5 mph at -18°Single: 106.6 mph at -2°Double: 103.9 mph at 21°Out: 88.9 mph at 59°Out: 72.2 mph at 60°Single: 102.4 mph at 12°Out: 90.2 mph at 1°Out: 89.8 mph at 26°Out: 91.9 mph at -3°Single: 106.7 mph at 0°Out: 67.4 mph at 13°Home run: 107.3 mph at 23°Out: 24.9 mph at 20°Out: 28.8 mph at -56°Out: 94.0 mph at 26°Single: 73.8 mph at 37°Single: 85.5 mph at 18°Out: 65.8 mph at 13°Out: 71.2 mph at -12°Out: 90.3 mph at 34°Single: 92.2 mph at 12°Out: 92.4 mph at 31°Single: 91.8 mph at 11°Single: 88.7 mph at -5°Single: 77.4 mph at 15°Out: 95.9 mph at 48°Out: 90.4 mph at 40°Out: 98.9 mph at 33°Out: 73.9 mph at -18°Single: 85.7 mph at -3°Out: 96.3 mph at 58°Out: 94.1 mph at 5°
25% hit 95+ mph40% in the sweet spot38% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit54.4%54.4%+0.1
2+ total bases29.4%29.3%+0.1
Home run9.8%9.1%+0.7
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+0.5
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.2
Park
-0.2
2+ total bases
Starter
+0.5
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.2
Park
-0.2
Home run
Starter
+0.8
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
-0.1

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Ezequiel Tovar hits
Where they meet

.281 xwOBA for Ezequiel Tovar in the spots Anthony Kay throws to righties

The average hitter in those same spots: .299 (-18 points). His best spot against lefties is middle-left, and Anthony Kay puts 5% of his pitches there. Context only; the projection reads pitch type, not location.

Anthony Kay · where he throws to right-handed hitters
4% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 11% per swing4%4% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 27% per swing4%2% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 20% per swing2%5% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 6% per swing5%7% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 5% per swing7%3% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 7% per swing3%5% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 10% per swing5%5% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 16% per swing5%3% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 22% per swing3%12% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 18% per swing12%8% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 30% per swing8%24% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 49% per swing24%17% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 30% per swing17%
All · 884 pitches · catcher's view
1% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters1%2% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters2%1% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters1%6% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters6%7% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters7%5% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters5%8% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters8%7% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters7%3% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters3%1% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters1%11% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters11%37% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters37%11% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters11%
Sweeper · 210 pitches · catcher's view
8% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters8%10% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters10%8% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters8%6% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters6%8% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters8%4% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters4%3% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters3%3% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters3%4% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters4%22% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters22%12% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters12%4% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters4%8% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters8%
Fastball · 182 pitches · catcher's view
10% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters10%4% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters4%1% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters1%9% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters9%9% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters9%2% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters2%6% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters6%2% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters2%1% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters1%31% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters31%4% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters4%21% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters21%1% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters1%
Cutter · 181 pitches · catcher's view
1% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters1%0% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters0% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters0% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters1% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters1%1% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters1%4% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters4%6% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters6%6% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters6%0% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters6% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters6%25% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters25%52% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters52%
Changeup · 171 pitches · catcher's view
0% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters1% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters1%0% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters0% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters3% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters3%0% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters9% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters9%12% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters12%5% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters5%0% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters1% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters1%53% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters53%16% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters16%
Slider · 76 pitches · catcher's view
5% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters5%2% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters2%0% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters8% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters8%16% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters16%8% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters8%2% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters2%9% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters9%0% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters11% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters11%8% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters8%14% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters14%19% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters19%
Sinker · 64 pitches · catcher's view

Share of his pitches in each spot; darker is more. Last 90 days.

Ezequiel Tovar · hot and cold vs LHP
xwOBA .226 shrunk (raw .175 on 4 PA) · league .243 · 17 pitches seen.226xwOBA .307 shrunk (raw .332 on 5 PA) · league .296 · 21 pitches seen.307xwOBA .234 shrunk (raw .000 on 1 PA) · league .254 · 18 pitches seen.234xwOBA .352 shrunk (raw .526 on 3 PA) · league .308 · 19 pitches seen.352xwOBA .320 shrunk (raw .191 on 6 PA) · league .385 · 17 pitches seen.320xwOBA .363 shrunk (raw .410 on 6 PA) · league .340 · 17 pitches seen.363xwOBA .244 shrunk (raw .174 on 5 PA) · league .273 · 10 pitches seen.244xwOBA .324 shrunk (raw .289 on 9 PA) · league .350 · 17 pitches seen.324xwOBA .295 shrunk (raw .290 on 10 PA) · league .299 · 21 pitches seen.295xwOBA .332 shrunk (raw .698 on 1 PA) · league .302 · 14 pitches seen.332xwOBA .330 shrunk (raw .290 on 5 PA) · league .346 · 48 pitches seen.330xwOBA .274 shrunk (raw .264 on 17 PA) · league .289 · 65 pitches seen.274xwOBA .191 shrunk (raw .134 on 14 PA) · league .257 · 53 pitches seen.191
vs LHP · 337 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 15% of 13 swings · league 19%15%Whiff 13% of 16 swings · league 21%13%Whiff 33% of 12 swings · league 23%33%Whiff 15% of 13 swings · league 9%15%Whiff 21% of 14 swings · league 10%21%Whiff 27% of 15 swings · league 11%27%Whiff 0% of 9 swings · league 17%0%Whiff 13% of 15 swings · league 14%13%Whiff 18% of 17 swings · league 16%18%Whiff 0% of 3 swings · league 25%0%Whiff 43% of 7 swings · league 29%43%Whiff 48% of 31 swings · league 48%48%Whiff 50% of 32 swings · league 34%50%
vs LHP · 337 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 77% of 17 pitches · league 63%77%Swings at 76% of 21 pitches · league 71%76%Swings at 67% of 18 pitches · league 64%67%Swings at 68% of 19 pitches · league 67%68%Swings at 82% of 17 pitches · league 76%82%Swings at 88% of 17 pitches · league 72%88%Swings at 90% of 10 pitches · league 59%90%Swings at 88% of 17 pitches · league 68%88%Swings at 81% of 21 pitches · league 66%81%Swings at 21% of 14 pitches · league 30%21%Swings at 15% of 48 pitches · league 26%15%Swings at 48% of 65 pitches · league 31%48%Swings at 60% of 53 pitches · league 41%60%
vs LHP · 337 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Ezequiel Tovar against each of Anthony Kay's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball31%95.3+7″ / +15″.332.34726.1%18.7%129About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Sweeper18%82.7-13″ / +0″.293.30833.9%27.0%58About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Cutter14%91.5-1″ / +7″.327.34128.6%20.8%96About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Sinker13%95.3+16″ / +5″.346.36018.1%12.1%83About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Changeup13%86.1+14″ / +1″.304.31833.3%27.4%88About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Slider9%86.2-4″ / -3″.285.30039.3%32.6%82About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Ezequiel Tovar · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G36.167.167.667.333.22516.7%0.0%16.7%78.8101.520.0%40.0%20.0%
Last 15 G1224.182.250.318.254.25825.0%8.3%32.0%82.5106.76.2%25.0%37.5%
Last 30 G2345.098.178.171.167.22028.9%8.9%29.0%84.1109.47.1%28.6%28.6%
90 days4787.179.244.333.256.26126.4%8.0%28.4%84.5109.48.8%31.6%35.1%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 57 balls in play
Ground 35%Line drive 19%Fly ball 28%Pop-up 18%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G410.200.200.300.239.12250.0%0.0%29.0%64.877.90.0%0.0%50.0%
Last 15 G1325.375.375.583.439.30332.0%0.0%28.8%78.8107.312.5%18.8%56.2%
Last 30 G2346.395.400.605.452.36228.3%2.2%26.5%84.5107.310.0%30.0%50.0%
90 days55122.252.281.378.299.28319.7%4.9%22.5%83.4107.34.4%30.0%33.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 90 balls in play
Ground 38%Line drive 21%Fly ball 24%Pop-up 17%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G516.188.188.438.277.16337.5%0.0%25.6%72.6101.511.1%22.2%33.3%
Last 15 G1549.283.312.457.345.28028.6%4.1%30.3%80.6107.39.4%21.9%46.9%
Last 30 G3091.250.289.393.306.29028.6%5.5%27.7%84.3109.48.6%29.3%39.7%
90 days65209.222.266.360.281.27422.5%6.2%25.0%83.8109.46.1%30.6%34.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 147 balls in play
Ground 37%Line drive 20%Fly ball 26%Pop-up 17%
Ezequiel Tovar · percentile ranksvs 228 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating21Poor
Last 100 pitches1trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.282 / .284results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit7/12
2+ total bases5/12
Home run2/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPFastball94.177.931.125Double
Sep 24LHPChangeup85.649.2-48.211Out
Sep 24LHPChangeup86.773.353.102Out
Sep 24LHPFastball90.897.764.013Out
Sep 23RHPSlider86.147.8-77.154Out
Sep 23RHPSlider85.666.524.819Single
Sep 23RHPCurveball90.967.171.000Out
Sep 23LHPSinker97.9101.525.972Home run
Sep 20LHPChangeup83.572.5-18.054Out
Sep 18RHPFastball97.1106.6-2.426Single
Sep 18RHPFastball97.1103.921.954Double
Sep 18LHPChangeup87.788.959.031Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25312002
Sep 24500002
Sep 23425100
Sep 20200001
Sep 19200001
Sep 18423001
Sep 16411001
Sep 14411010
Sep 12414101
Sep 11200001

Two strikes

Anthony Kay CWS · LHPwith two strikes
Anthony Kay with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Slider8%24%23.5%15.3%22.2%
Fastball19%21%19.6%16.4%18.4%
Sinker18%17%16.7%21.3%17.8%
Changeup14%16%25.0%14.5%18.3%
Sweeper25%13%37.0%27.3%21.2%
Cutter16%9%8.0%6.2%18.3%
Ezequiel Tovar bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Ezequiel Tovar with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Misses his two-strike stuff more than most
With two strikesHimLeague
K%50.3%41.4%
Whiff%26.6%22.0%
Contact%73.4%78.0%
Chase%48.0%40.7%
wOBA.218.248
Whiff vs his put-away shapes26.3%21.8%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeFBalanced type
wOBA.297
K%22.7%
BB%6.1%
Whiff%14.2%
Barrel%4.9%
Hard-hit%22.7%
Avg EV84.5

Against left-handers, last 90 days

85 PA
wOBA.270
xwOBA vs this mix.269against pitches like his
RV/100-1.42
Hard-hit%21.7%
K%25.2%
BB%6.4%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Anthony KayLHP · CWS vs COL
4.5projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 7 · 21.6 batters over 5.1 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 34.7%35%≤34 strikeouts: 19.0%19%45 strikeouts: 16.9%17%56 strikeouts: 12.6%13%67 strikeouts: 8.2%8%78 strikeouts: 4.6%5%89+ strikeouts: 4.0%4%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 46% (red bars) · under: 54%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%18.6%
BB%7.1%
Whiff%11.2%
Velo90.0
BTB Stuff106
Location100
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff%
Sweeper25%10982.811.8%
Fastball19%9996.010.6%
Sinker17%11395.66.9%
Cutter16%12292.68.5%
Changeup14%7886.418.3%
Slider8%12286.612.6%
Last 3 startsTrending Down
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 226520%11%35%.458
Sep 166618%12%6%.241
Sep 116711%2%26%.347

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Anthony Kay CWS · LHPvsCOL lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

3 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.8%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameCOL @ CWS →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Ezequiel Tovar: every projection we've made →