MLBengine v14
← COL at CWS, Sep 27, 2026
2:10 PM CT · Rate Field · lineup projected
Hitter · COL · batting 3Hunter Goodman
Bats rightTalent grade CBalancedHot
.336wOBA vs LHP.312xwOBA vs his mix3.8expected PA
Starter · CWSAnthony Kay
Throws leftBTB Stuff 106Trending Down
4.5projected K19%K%2.7trips vs this hitter
Anthony Kay's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 31% usage, 95.3 mph, +6.7″ arm side, +15.1″ rise. Hunter Goodman: wOBA .360 vs league .347 (about even).Fastball 31%Sweeper: 18% usage, 82.7 mph, -12.8″ arm side, +0.4″ rise. Hunter Goodman: wOBA .320 vs league .308 (about even).Sweeper 18%Cutter: 14% usage, 91.5 mph, -1.3″ arm side, +6.7″ rise. Hunter Goodman: wOBA .354 vs league .341 (about even).Cutter 14%Sinker: 13% usage, 95.3 mph, +16.2″ arm side, +5.0″ rise. Hunter Goodman: wOBA .374 vs league .360 (about even).Sinker 13%Changeup: 13% usage, 86.1 mph, +14.0″ arm side, +0.6″ rise. Hunter Goodman: wOBA .330 vs league .318 (about even).Changeup 13%Slider: 9% usage, 86.2 mph, -4.3″ arm side, -3.3″ rise. Hunter Goodman: wOBA .312 vs league .300 (about even).Slider 9%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Hunter Goodman's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Hunter Goodman's last 40 balls in playHit (10)Out (30)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Double: 109.4 mph at 21°Out: 68.9 mph at 81°Out: 89.5 mph at 64°Out: 97.0 mph at 43°Out: 74.7 mph at 35°Out: 97.1 mph at 10°Out: 66.6 mph at 18°Out: 81.1 mph at 31°Single: 70.6 mph at 18°Single: 67.7 mph at 23°Out: 93.1 mph at 46°Out: 68.5 mph at -14°Single: 103.1 mph at 11°Out: 98.0 mph at 42°Out: 56.9 mph at -16°Out: 88.6 mph at 0°Out: 72.3 mph at 59°Home run: 97.8 mph at 34°Single: 107.3 mph at 3°Out: 68.5 mph at 62°Out: 101.6 mph at 25°Out: 97.2 mph at 64°Out: 53.7 mph at -13°Single: 103.6 mph at 2°Out: 62.9 mph at -26°Out: 96.6 mph at 48°Out: 43.0 mph at -66°Double: 106.7 mph at -3°Triple: 108.1 mph at 23°Home run: 93.9 mph at 33°Out: 87.2 mph at 57°Out: 103.2 mph at -9°Out: 84.9 mph at -1°Out: 85.1 mph at 22°Out: 101.1 mph at -5°Out: 71.5 mph at -12°Out: 96.4 mph at 57°Out: 75.7 mph at 36°Out: 76.5 mph at 37°Out: 81.6 mph at -15°
40% hit 95+ mph25% in the sweet spot25% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit61.0%61.0%+0.0
2+ total bases38.3%38.2%+0.0
Home run17.2%16.8%+0.5
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+0.4
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
-0.2
2+ total bases
Starter
+0.4
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.2
Park
-0.2
Home run
Starter
+0.6
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
-0.1

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Hunter Goodman hits
Where they meet

.313 xwOBA for Hunter Goodman in the spots Anthony Kay throws to righties

The average hitter in those same spots: .299 (+14 points). His best spot against lefties is down and left, outside, and Anthony Kay puts 24% of his pitches there. Context only; the projection reads pitch type, not location.

Anthony Kay · where he throws to right-handed hitters
4% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 11% per swing4%4% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 27% per swing4%2% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 20% per swing2%5% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 6% per swing5%7% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 5% per swing7%3% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 7% per swing3%5% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 10% per swing5%5% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 16% per swing5%3% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 22% per swing3%12% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 18% per swing12%8% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 30% per swing8%24% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 49% per swing24%17% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 30% per swing17%
All · 884 pitches · catcher's view
1% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters1%2% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters2%1% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters1%6% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters6%7% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters7%5% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters5%8% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters8%7% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters7%3% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters3%1% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters1%11% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters11%37% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters37%11% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters11%
Sweeper · 210 pitches · catcher's view
8% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters8%10% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters10%8% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters8%6% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters6%8% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters8%4% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters4%3% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters3%3% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters3%4% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters4%22% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters22%12% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters12%4% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters4%8% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters8%
Fastball · 182 pitches · catcher's view
10% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters10%4% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters4%1% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters1%9% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters9%9% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters9%2% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters2%6% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters6%2% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters2%1% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters1%31% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters31%4% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters4%21% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters21%1% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters1%
Cutter · 181 pitches · catcher's view
1% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters1%0% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters0% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters0% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters1% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters1%1% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters1%4% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters4%6% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters6%6% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters6%0% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters6% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters6%25% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters25%52% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters52%
Changeup · 171 pitches · catcher's view
0% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters1% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters1%0% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters0% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters3% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters3%0% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters9% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters9%12% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters12%5% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters5%0% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters1% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters1%53% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters53%16% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters16%
Slider · 76 pitches · catcher's view
5% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters5%2% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters2%0% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters8% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters8%16% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters16%8% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters8%2% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters2%9% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters9%0% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters11% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters11%8% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters8%14% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters14%19% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters19%
Sinker · 64 pitches · catcher's view

Share of his pitches in each spot; darker is more. Last 90 days.

Hunter Goodman · hot and cold vs LHP
xwOBA .256 shrunk (raw .309 on 3 PA) · league .243 · 9 pitches seen.256xwOBA .285 shrunk (raw .239 on 3 PA) · league .296 · 15 pitches seen.285xwOBA .207 shrunk (raw .019 on 3 PA) · league .254 · 10 pitches seen.207xwOBA .390 shrunk (raw .554 on 6 PA) · league .308 · 14 pitches seen.390xwOBA .369 shrunk (raw .332 on 5 PA) · league .385 · 11 pitches seen.369xwOBA .291 shrunk (raw .207 on 7 PA) · league .340 · 23 pitches seen.291xwOBA .329 shrunk (raw .463 on 5 PA) · league .273 · 16 pitches seen.329xwOBA .280 shrunk (raw .072 on 4 PA) · league .350 · 15 pitches seen.280xwOBA .279 shrunk (raw .248 on 8 PA) · league .299 · 17 pitches seen.279xwOBA .270 shrunk (raw .175 on 4 PA) · league .302 · 26 pitches seen.270xwOBA .367 shrunk (raw .389 on 11 PA) · league .346 · 57 pitches seen.367xwOBA .376 shrunk (raw .481 on 10 PA) · league .289 · 70 pitches seen.376xwOBA .235 shrunk (raw .219 on 17 PA) · league .257 · 68 pitches seen.235
vs LHP · 351 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 0% of 9 swings · league 19%0%Whiff 56% of 9 swings · league 21%56%Whiff 0% of 9 swings · league 23%0%Whiff 27% of 11 swings · league 9%27%Whiff 0% of 9 swings · league 10%0%Whiff 18% of 17 swings · league 11%18%Whiff 25% of 12 swings · league 17%25%Whiff 31% of 13 swings · league 14%31%Whiff 0% of 10 swings · league 16%0%Whiff 9% of 11 swings · league 25%9%Whiff 57% of 14 swings · league 29%57%Whiff 58% of 31 swings · league 48%58%Whiff 38% of 29 swings · league 34%38%
vs LHP · 351 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 100% of 9 pitches · league 63%100%Swings at 60% of 15 pitches · league 71%60%Swings at 90% of 10 pitches · league 64%90%Swings at 79% of 14 pitches · league 67%79%Swings at 82% of 11 pitches · league 76%82%Swings at 74% of 23 pitches · league 72%74%Swings at 75% of 16 pitches · league 59%75%Swings at 87% of 15 pitches · league 68%87%Swings at 59% of 17 pitches · league 66%59%Swings at 42% of 26 pitches · league 30%42%Swings at 25% of 57 pitches · league 26%25%Swings at 44% of 70 pitches · league 31%44%Swings at 43% of 68 pitches · league 41%43%
vs LHP · 351 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Hunter Goodman against each of Anthony Kay's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball31%95.3+7″ / +15″.360.34726.3%18.7%95About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Sweeper18%82.7-13″ / +0″.320.30836.9%27.0%42About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Cutter14%91.5-1″ / +7″.354.34128.2%20.8%58About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Sinker13%95.3+16″ / +5″.374.36017.2%12.1%57About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Changeup13%86.1+14″ / +1″.330.31835.3%27.4%62About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Slider9%86.2-4″ / -3″.312.30043.5%32.6%54About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Hunter Goodman · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G26.000.000.000.000.15833.3%0.0%38.9%81.397.10.0%25.0%50.0%
Last 15 G821.100.143.400.224.18128.6%4.8%28.3%87.0103.20.0%35.7%21.4%
Last 30 G1944.171.227.439.282.25927.3%6.8%26.3%88.5112.13.4%44.8%27.6%
90 days3887.213.322.413.325.31028.7%13.8%30.4%87.6112.16.0%40.0%36.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 50 balls in play
Ground 38%Line drive 22%Fly ball 28%Pop-up 12%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G515.357.333.643.457.3666.7%0.0%13.2%84.0109.47.1%35.7%35.7%
Last 15 G1542.263.310.447.345.3457.1%4.8%16.3%85.1109.48.3%41.7%27.8%
Last 30 G2981.247.296.452.334.34113.6%6.2%22.3%86.5109.411.1%39.7%27.0%
90 days55155.259.297.531.355.30927.1%5.2%30.3%87.4110.511.7%42.7%29.1%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 103 balls in play
Ground 39%Line drive 18%Fly ball 30%Pop-up 14%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G521.250.238.450.326.30714.3%0.0%21.4%83.4109.45.6%33.3%38.9%
Last 15 G1563.207.254.431.305.29014.3%4.8%20.3%85.6109.46.0%40.0%26.0%
Last 30 G30125.219.272.447.315.31218.4%6.4%23.8%87.1112.18.7%41.3%27.2%
90 days59242.243.306.491.344.30927.7%8.3%30.3%87.5112.19.8%41.8%31.4%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 153 balls in play
Ground 39%Line drive 19%Fly ball 29%Pop-up 13%
Hunter Goodman · percentile ranksvs 228 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormHot
Contact rating55Average
Last 100 pitches95trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.352 / .322running 30 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit8/12
2+ total bases5/12
Home run2/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPSlider86.2109.4211.586Double
Sep 25RHPSlider86.468.981.007Out
Sep 25RHPFastball97.989.564.013Out
Sep 25RHPSinker95.097.043.050Out
Sep 24LHPFastball91.274.735.134Out
Sep 24LHPCutter88.797.110.708Out
Sep 24RHPSlider88.566.618.445Out
Sep 24LHPChangeup84.981.131.093Out
Sep 24RHPSlider86.870.618.681Single
Sep 23RHPSlider86.467.723.833Single
Sep 23RHPSlider85.893.146.003Sac fly
Sep 23RHPFastball92.868.5-14.042Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25412000
Sep 24511000
Sep 23422000
Sep 22400001
Sep 20414102
Sep 19411010
Sep 18511000
Sep 14425010
Sep 12514111
Sep 11400001

Two strikes

Anthony Kay CWS · LHPwith two strikes
Anthony Kay with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Slider8%24%23.5%15.3%22.2%
Fastball19%21%19.6%16.4%18.4%
Sinker18%17%16.7%21.3%17.8%
Changeup14%16%25.0%14.5%18.3%
Sweeper25%13%37.0%27.3%21.2%
Cutter16%9%8.0%6.2%18.3%
Hunter Goodman bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Hunter Goodman with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Misses his two-strike stuff more than most
With two strikesHimLeague
K%51.2%41.4%
Whiff%28.0%22.0%
Contact%72.0%78.0%
Chase%45.6%40.7%
wOBA.257.248
Whiff vs his put-away shapes27.7%21.8%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeCBalanced type
wOBA.356
K%27.4%
BB%7.8%
Whiff%15.6%
Barrel%6.6%
Hard-hit%26.7%
Avg EV87.8

Against left-handers, last 90 days

84 PA
wOBA.336
xwOBA vs this mix.312against pitches like his
RV/1000.43
Hard-hit%22.4%
K%27.9%
BB%8.4%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Anthony KayLHP · CWS vs COL
4.5projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 7 · 21.6 batters over 5.1 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 34.7%35%≤34 strikeouts: 19.0%19%45 strikeouts: 16.9%17%56 strikeouts: 12.6%13%67 strikeouts: 8.2%8%78 strikeouts: 4.6%5%89+ strikeouts: 4.0%4%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 46% (red bars) · under: 54%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%18.6%
BB%7.1%
Whiff%11.2%
Velo90.0
BTB Stuff106
Location100
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff%
Sweeper25%10982.811.8%
Fastball19%9996.010.6%
Sinker17%11395.66.9%
Cutter16%12292.68.5%
Changeup14%7886.418.3%
Slider8%12286.612.6%
Last 3 startsTrending Down
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 226520%11%35%.458
Sep 166618%12%6%.241
Sep 116711%2%26%.347

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Anthony Kay CWS · LHPvsCOL lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

3 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.8%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameCOL @ CWS →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Hunter Goodman: every projection we've made →