MLBengine v14
← COL at CWS, Sep 27, 2026
2:10 PM CT · Rate Field · lineup projected
Hitter · COL · batting 1Jake McCarthy
Bats leftTalent grade FBalancedCold
.388wOBA vs LHP.351xwOBA vs his mix4.0expected PA
Starter · CWSAnthony Kay
Throws leftBTB Stuff 106Trending Down
4.5projected K19%K%2.7trips vs this hitter
Anthony Kay's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 31% usage, 95.3 mph, +6.7″ arm side, +15.1″ rise. Jake McCarthy: wOBA .367 vs league .343 (hitter's edge).Fastball 31%Sweeper: 18% usage, 82.7 mph, -12.8″ arm side, +0.4″ rise. Jake McCarthy: wOBA .277 vs league .253 (hitter's edge).Sweeper 18%Cutter: 14% usage, 91.5 mph, -1.3″ arm side, +6.7″ rise. Jake McCarthy: wOBA .325 vs league .301 (hitter's edge).Cutter 14%Sinker: 13% usage, 95.3 mph, +16.2″ arm side, +5.0″ rise. Jake McCarthy: wOBA .348 vs league .324 (hitter's edge).Sinker 13%Changeup: 13% usage, 86.1 mph, +14.0″ arm side, +0.6″ rise. Jake McCarthy: wOBA .329 vs league .306 (hitter's edge).Changeup 13%Slider: 9% usage, 86.2 mph, -4.3″ arm side, -3.3″ rise. Jake McCarthy: wOBA .285 vs league .261 (hitter's edge).Slider 9%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Jake McCarthy's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Jake McCarthy's last 40 balls in playHit (13)Out (27)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 83.9 mph at -29°Out: 80.6 mph at 62°Out: 89.4 mph at 71°Single: 82.8 mph at -13°Out: 48.1 mph at -58°Single: 94.9 mph at 1°Out: 44.9 mph at -23°Out: 98.4 mph at 16°Out: 100.3 mph at 9°Out: 75.1 mph at -17°Triple: 104.7 mph at 3°Out: 45.8 mph at 74°Out: 81.2 mph at 28°Out: 61.3 mph at -28°Single: 38.7 mph at -69°Out: 74.2 mph at -7°Out: 43.7 mph at -62°Single: 91.6 mph at 12°Out: 87.9 mph at -20°Triple: 104.8 mph at 24°Single: 63.0 mph at -8°Out: 85.8 mph at 33°Out: 74.2 mph at -17°Triple: 99.4 mph at 27°Out: 77.7 mph at 4°Out: 91.1 mph at 3°Out: 74.0 mph at 2°Out: 82.0 mph at -20°Single: 95.4 mph at 13°Single: 85.2 mph at 8°Out: 105.0 mph at 12°Out: 91.7 mph at 7°Double: 88.1 mph at 21°Triple: 102.7 mph at 27°Out: 96.4 mph at 18°Out: 91.0 mph at -3°Out: 79.8 mph at 34°Out: 71.1 mph at 61°Out: 91.8 mph at 36°Single: 91.0 mph at -19°
23% hit 95+ mph30% in the sweet spot33% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit66.8%67.7%-0.9
2+ total bases36.6%38.6%-2.0
Home run8.0%10.4%-2.5
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-0.5
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
-0.2
2+ total bases
Starter
-1.6
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.2
Park
-0.2
Home run
Starter
-2.4
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
-0.0

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Jake McCarthy hits
Where they meet

.311 xwOBA for Jake McCarthy in the spots Anthony Kay throws to lefties

The average hitter in those same spots: .304 (+7 points). His best spot against lefties is up and right, outside, and Anthony Kay puts 11% of his pitches there. Context only; the projection reads pitch type, not location.

Anthony Kay · where he throws to left-handed hitters
4% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 38% per swing4%3% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 43% per swing3%3% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 17% per swing3%8% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 29% per swing8%5% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing5%6% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 18% per swing6%6% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 23% per swing6%7% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 6% per swing7%4% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 8% per swing4%6% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 40% per swing6%11% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 14% per swing11%30% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 50% per swing30%8% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 11% per swing8%
All · 335 pitches · catcher's view
2% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters2%3% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters3%3% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters3%6% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters6%7% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters7%10% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters10%7% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters7%10% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters10%7% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters7%3% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters3%13% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters13%14% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters14%15% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters15%
Sinker · 152 pitches · catcher's view
4% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters4%1% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters1%2% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters2%8% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters8%2% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters2%3% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters3%8% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters8%7% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters7%1% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters1%2% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters2%10% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters10%51% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters51%2% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters2%
Sweeper · 93 pitches · catcher's view
10% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters10%4% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters4%6% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters6%8% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters8%10% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters10%4% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters4%2% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters2%0% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters4% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters4%19% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters19%15% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters15%19% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters19%0% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters
Fastball · 52 pitches · catcher's view
0% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters0% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters0% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters10% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters10%0% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters0% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters0% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters5% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters5%0% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters10% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters10%0% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters71% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters71%5% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters5%
Slider · 21 pitches · catcher's view
0% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters12% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters12%0% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters18% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters18%0% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters0% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters12% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters12%0% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters0% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters12% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters12%0% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters47% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters47%0% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters
Cutter · 17 pitches · catcher's view

Share of his pitches in each spot; darker is more. Last 90 days.

Jake McCarthy · hot and cold vs LHP
xwOBA .286 shrunk (raw .543 on 2 PA) · league .243 · 12 pitches seen.286xwOBA .294 shrunk (raw .291 on 7 PA) · league .296 · 21 pitches seen.294xwOBA .284 shrunk (raw .323 on 9 PA) · league .254 · 19 pitches seen.284xwOBA .251 shrunk (raw .199 on 13 PA) · league .308 · 25 pitches seen.251xwOBA .449 shrunk (raw .487 on 20 PA) · league .385 · 32 pitches seen.449xwOBA .391 shrunk (raw .441 on 12 PA) · league .340 · 24 pitches seen.391xwOBA .275 shrunk (raw .280 on 6 PA) · league .273 · 28 pitches seen.275xwOBA .349 shrunk (raw .348 on 9 PA) · league .350 · 23 pitches seen.349xwOBA .293 shrunk (raw .278 on 5 PA) · league .299 · 11 pitches seen.293xwOBA .345 shrunk (raw .474 on 4 PA) · league .302 · 32 pitches seen.345xwOBA .413 shrunk (raw .458 on 18 PA) · league .346 · 44 pitches seen.413xwOBA .268 shrunk (raw .250 on 14 PA) · league .289 · 104 pitches seen.268xwOBA .246 shrunk (raw .219 on 5 PA) · league .257 · 27 pitches seen.246
vs LHP · 402 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 0% of 8 swings · league 19%0%Whiff 16% of 19 swings · league 21%16%Whiff 13% of 15 swings · league 23%13%Whiff 6% of 18 swings · league 9%6%Whiff 7% of 29 swings · league 10%7%Whiff 0% of 21 swings · league 11%0%Whiff 18% of 22 swings · league 17%18%Whiff 5% of 19 swings · league 14%5%Whiff 22% of 9 swings · league 16%22%Whiff 18% of 11 swings · league 25%18%Whiff 5% of 19 swings · league 29%5%Whiff 56% of 36 swings · league 48%56%Whiff 47% of 15 swings · league 34%47%
vs LHP · 402 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 67% of 12 pitches · league 63%67%Swings at 91% of 21 pitches · league 71%91%Swings at 79% of 19 pitches · league 64%79%Swings at 72% of 25 pitches · league 67%72%Swings at 91% of 32 pitches · league 76%91%Swings at 88% of 24 pitches · league 72%88%Swings at 79% of 28 pitches · league 59%79%Swings at 83% of 23 pitches · league 68%83%Swings at 82% of 11 pitches · league 66%82%Swings at 34% of 32 pitches · league 30%34%Swings at 43% of 44 pitches · league 26%43%Swings at 35% of 104 pitches · league 31%35%Swings at 56% of 27 pitches · league 41%56%
vs LHP · 402 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Jake McCarthy against each of Anthony Kay's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball31%95.3+7″ / +15″.367.34315.5%21.3%106About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Sweeper18%82.7-13″ / +0″.277.25331.7%33.3%77About league average vs these
Cutter14%91.5-1″ / +7″.325.30122.6%27.7%88About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Sinker13%95.3+16″ / +5″.348.32410.5%13.6%113About league average vs these
Changeup13%86.1+14″ / +1″.329.30620.3%23.9%51About league average vs these
Slider9%86.2-4″ / -3″.285.26132.7%34.5%96About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Jake McCarthy · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G37.286.286.571.357.14814.3%0.0%28.6%80.6104.70.0%16.7%16.7%
Last 15 G1128.423.464.731.536.35610.7%3.6%14.9%81.2104.813.0%26.1%34.8%
Last 30 G2455.340.400.540.422.32912.7%3.6%20.0%82.7104.87.0%27.9%34.9%
90 days55125.297.371.550.402.36013.6%5.6%18.7%81.1108.26.3%28.4%42.1%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 95 balls in play
Ground 48%Line drive 28%Fly ball 15%Pop-up 8%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G412.083.083.083.075.17841.7%0.0%28.6%78.1100.30.0%28.6%28.6%
Last 15 G1436.200.222.286.230.27919.4%0.0%19.0%82.2105.03.7%22.2%29.6%
Last 30 G2980.253.288.413.306.33616.2%3.8%13.5%86.4106.86.5%35.5%37.1%
90 days72218.277.304.427.324.31615.6%3.7%17.8%84.4110.44.6%32.9%38.2%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 173 balls in play
Ground 46%Line drive 23%Fly ball 24%Pop-up 7%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G519.158.158.263.179.16731.6%0.0%28.6%79.2104.70.0%23.1%23.1%
Last 15 G1564.295.328.475.366.31315.6%1.6%17.3%81.7105.08.0%24.0%32.0%
Last 30 G30135.288.333.464.354.33314.8%3.7%16.1%84.9106.86.7%32.4%36.2%
90 days77343.284.328.470.353.33214.9%4.4%18.1%83.2110.45.2%31.3%39.6%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 268 balls in play
Ground 47%Line drive 25%Fly ball 21%Pop-up 8%
Jake McCarthy · percentile ranksvs 228 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormCold
Contact rating69Above average
Last 100 pitches4trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.354 / .335running 19 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit8/12
2+ total bases5/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPFastball94.983.9-29.058Out
Sep 24LHPCurveball77.280.662.026Out
Sep 24LHPCutter87.989.471.000Out
Sep 24LHPFastball90.182.8-13.095Single
Sep 23RHPCurveball82.248.1-58.260Out
Sep 23RHPChangeup87.494.91.444Single
Sep 23LHPSinker97.044.9-23.227Out
Sep 23RHPFastball92.098.416.628Out
Sep 22RHPSweeper77.7100.39.676Out
Sep 22RHPChangeup86.775.1-17.072Force out
Sep 20LHPSlider88.9104.73.505Triple
Sep 20RHPFastball96.845.874.003Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25400003
Sep 24311000
Sep 23411000
Sep 22400002
Sep 20413001
Sep 19511000
Sep 18535001
Sep 17313000
Sep 16400011
Sep 15522000

Two strikes

Anthony Kay CWS · LHPwith two strikes
Anthony Kay with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Slider8%24%23.5%15.3%22.2%
Fastball19%21%19.6%16.4%18.4%
Sinker18%17%16.7%21.3%17.8%
Changeup14%16%25.0%14.5%18.3%
Sweeper25%13%37.0%27.3%21.2%
Cutter16%9%8.0%6.2%18.3%
Jake McCarthy bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Jake McCarthy with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%40.0%44.3%
Whiff%21.0%23.6%
Contact%79.0%76.4%
Chase%37.3%38.0%
wOBA.236.223
Whiff vs his put-away shapes21.4%24.1%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeFBalanced type
wOBA.334
K%15.6%
BB%4.6%
Whiff%10.7%
Barrel%4.1%
Hard-hit%24.1%
Avg EV83.3

Against left-handers, last 90 days

125 PA
wOBA.388
xwOBA vs this mix.351against pitches like his
RV/1001.65
Hard-hit%22.3%
K%14.7%
BB%4.6%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Anthony KayLHP · CWS vs COL
4.5projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 7 · 21.6 batters over 5.1 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 34.7%35%≤34 strikeouts: 19.0%19%45 strikeouts: 16.9%17%56 strikeouts: 12.6%13%67 strikeouts: 8.2%8%78 strikeouts: 4.6%5%89+ strikeouts: 4.0%4%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 46% (red bars) · under: 54%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%18.6%
BB%7.1%
Whiff%11.2%
Velo90.0
BTB Stuff106
Location100
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff%
Sweeper25%10982.811.8%
Fastball19%9996.010.6%
Sinker17%11395.66.9%
Cutter16%12292.68.5%
Changeup14%7886.418.3%
Slider8%12286.612.6%
Last 3 startsTrending Down
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 226520%11%35%.458
Sep 166618%12%6%.241
Sep 116711%2%26%.347

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Anthony Kay CWS · LHPvsCOL lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

3 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.8%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameCOL @ CWS →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Jake McCarthy: every projection we've made →