MLBengine v14
← COL at CWS, Sep 27, 2026
2:10 PM CT · Rate Field · lineup projected
Hitter · CWS · batting 2Kyle Teel
Bats leftTalent grade DBalancedNormal
.300wOBA vs LHP.303xwOBA vs his mix3.9expected PA
Starter · COLKyle Freeland
Throws leftBTB Stuff 85Trending Down
4.5projected K17%K%2.7trips vs this hitter
Kyle Freeland's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 24% usage, 91.1 mph, +7.0″ arm side, +14.0″ rise. Kyle Teel: wOBA .352 vs league .353 (about even).Fastball 24%Cutter: 21% usage, 86.2 mph, -1.2″ arm side, +5.4″ rise. Kyle Teel: wOBA .287 vs league .288 (about even).Cutter 21%Curveball: 20% usage, 81.9 mph, -2.4″ arm side, -6.2″ rise. Kyle Teel: wOBA .267 vs league .268 (about even).Curveball 20%Sinker: 18% usage, 90.4 mph, +13.3″ arm side, +6.7″ rise. Kyle Teel: wOBA .333 vs league .334 (about even).Sinker 18%Changeup: 12% usage, 85.4 mph, +11.4″ arm side, +6.7″ rise. Kyle Teel: wOBA .308 vs league .309 (about even).Changeup 12%Sweeper: 4% usage, 83.4 mph, -9.2″ arm side, -3.3″ rise. Kyle Teel: wOBA .263 vs league .264 (about even).Sweeper 4%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Kyle Teel's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Kyle Teel's last 40 balls in playHit (14)Out (26)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 100.4 mph at 41°Out: 91.4 mph at 26°Single: 103.6 mph at -9°Out: 42.8 mph at -46°Single: 91.3 mph at 19°Out: 38.6 mph at -34°Home run: 105.6 mph at 28°Single: 100.3 mph at 15°Out: 66.1 mph at 59°Out: 98.1 mph at -4°Out: 77.3 mph at 36°Out: 82.5 mph at 48°Single: 82.8 mph at 10°Out: 96.2 mph at 37°Out: 68.0 mph at -2°Out: 95.6 mph at 34°Out: 95.1 mph at -6°Out: 101.0 mph at 21°Double: 107.2 mph at 18°Out: 62.8 mph at -37°Out: 53.5 mph at -58°Single: 86.3 mph at 17°Single: 105.0 mph at -4°Out: 59.5 mph at -31°Home run: 112.4 mph at 23°Single: 102.7 mph at -11°Out: 97.1 mph at 49°Home run: 106.0 mph at 32°Out: 62.2 mph at 3°Out: 93.0 mph at 41°Out: 78.8 mph at 74°Out: 40.3 mph at -15°Out: 97.4 mph at 38°Out: 44.0 mph at -83°Out: 103.2 mph at 20°Double: 66.7 mph at 26°Single: 85.7 mph at 14°Out: 80.1 mph at 45°Single: 96.7 mph at 15°Out: 100.5 mph at 19°
48% hit 95+ mph38% in the sweet spot35% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit56.9%51.9%+5.0
2+ total bases34.1%30.8%+3.3
Home run12.0%11.7%+0.2
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+4.7
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.4
Park
-0.2
2+ total bases
Starter
+2.9
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.6
Park
-0.1
Home run
Starter
-0.2
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.4
Park
+0.1

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Kyle Teel hits
Where they meet

.298 xwOBA for Kyle Teel in the spots Kyle Freeland throws to lefties

The average hitter in those same spots: .306 (-7 points). His best spot against lefties is down and right, outside, and Kyle Freeland puts 7% of his pitches there. Context only; the projection reads pitch type, not location.

Kyle Freeland · where he throws to left-handed hitters
3% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 50% per swing3%4% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 22% per swing4%5% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 11% per swing5%9% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 12% per swing9%9% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 8% per swing9%5% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing5%7% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 36% per swing7%6% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 27% per swing6%5% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing5%4% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing4%11% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing11%27% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 55% per swing27%7% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 22% per swing7%
All · 310 pitches · catcher's view
0% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters4% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters4%3% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters3%8% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters8%3% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters3%9% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters9%6% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters6%8% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters8%10% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters10%0% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters16% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters16%13% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters13%23% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters23%
Sinker · 80 pitches · catcher's view
8% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters8%9% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters9%8% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters8%10% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters10%19% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters19%2% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters2%8% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters8%2% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters2%2% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters2%9% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters9%5% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters5%21% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters21%0% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters
Cutter · 67 pitches · catcher's view
7% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters7%5% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters5%8% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters8%12% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters12%13% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters13%5% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters5%7% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters7%8% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters8%2% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters2%5% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters5%10% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters10%17% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters17%2% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters2%
Fastball · 60 pitches · catcher's view
0% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters2% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters2%2% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters2%2% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters2%2% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters2%4% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters4%8% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters8%10% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters10%6% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters6%0% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters12% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters12%50% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters50%2% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters2%
Curveball · 50 pitches · catcher's view
0% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters0% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters5% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters5%14% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters14%5% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters5%2% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters2%7% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters7%2% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters2%2% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters2%5% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters5%14% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters14%43% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters43%0% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters
Sweeper · 42 pitches · catcher's view

Share of his pitches in each spot; darker is more. Last 90 days.

Kyle Teel · hot and cold vs LHP
xwOBA .243 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .243 · 2 pitches seenxwOBA .296 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .296 · 2 pitches seenxwOBA .218 shrunk (raw .000 on 2 PA) · league .254 · 8 pitches seen.218xwOBA .326 shrunk (raw .436 on 2 PA) · league .308 · 7 pitches seen.326xwOBA .385 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .385 · 4 pitches seenxwOBA .293 shrunk (raw .152 on 4 PA) · league .340 · 14 pitches seen.293xwOBA .261 shrunk (raw .189 on 2 PA) · league .273 · 5 pitches seen.261xwOBA .308 shrunk (raw .138 on 3 PA) · league .350 · 9 pitches seen.308xwOBA .299 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .299 · 6 pitches seenxwOBA .340 shrunk (raw .490 on 3 PA) · league .302 · 13 pitches seen.340xwOBA .351 shrunk (raw .361 on 6 PA) · league .346 · 22 pitches seen.351xwOBA .259 shrunk (raw .213 on 8 PA) · league .289 · 40 pitches seen.259xwOBA .322 shrunk (raw .584 on 3 PA) · league .257 · 14 pitches seen.322
vs LHP · 146 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff – of 0 swings · league 19%Whiff 0% of 1 swings · league 21%0%Whiff 80% of 5 swings · league 23%80%Whiff 25% of 4 swings · league 9%25%Whiff 100% of 1 swings · league 10%100%Whiff 8% of 13 swings · league 11%8%Whiff 50% of 4 swings · league 17%50%Whiff 25% of 4 swings · league 14%25%Whiff 20% of 5 swings · league 16%20%Whiff 50% of 2 swings · league 25%50%Whiff 29% of 7 swings · league 29%29%Whiff 62% of 13 swings · league 48%62%Whiff 22% of 9 swings · league 34%22%
vs LHP · 146 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 0% of 2 pitches · league 63%0%Swings at 50% of 2 pitches · league 71%50%Swings at 63% of 8 pitches · league 64%63%Swings at 57% of 7 pitches · league 67%57%Swings at 25% of 4 pitches · league 76%25%Swings at 93% of 14 pitches · league 72%93%Swings at 80% of 5 pitches · league 59%80%Swings at 44% of 9 pitches · league 68%44%Swings at 83% of 6 pitches · league 66%83%Swings at 15% of 13 pitches · league 30%15%Swings at 32% of 22 pitches · league 26%32%Swings at 33% of 40 pitches · league 31%33%Swings at 64% of 14 pitches · league 41%64%
vs LHP · 146 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Kyle Teel against each of Kyle Freeland's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball24%91.1+7″ / +14″.352.35326.7%17.5%27About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Cutter21%86.2-1″ / +5″.287.28844.2%31.7%17About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Curveball20%81.9-2″ / -6″.267.26841.5%33.1%10About league average vs these
Sinker18%90.4+13″ / +7″.333.33419.2%12.4%28About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Changeup12%85.4+11″ / +7″.308.30933.4%27.8%4Little history vs this shape
Sweeper4%83.4-9″ / -3″.263.26441.2%33.0%16About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Kyle Teel · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G36.250.500.250.383.34316.7%33.3%21.4%82.398.10.0%33.3%33.3%
Last 15 G1019.231.474.308.382.38131.6%26.3%27.0%90.9107.214.3%57.1%57.1%
Last 30 G1630.167.333.208.272.30636.7%16.7%34.4%81.3107.27.7%46.2%46.2%
90 days1833.148.303.185.274.28439.4%15.2%35.3%80.2107.27.1%42.9%50.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 14 balls in play
Ground 29%Line drive 50%Fly ball 7%Pop-up 14%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G518.333.471.583.494.45622.2%11.1%29.0%83.4105.610.0%40.0%40.0%
Last 15 G1439.185.395.296.379.34630.8%20.5%29.6%80.8105.65.9%41.2%23.5%
Last 30 G2875.197.324.410.348.35732.0%13.3%28.3%85.0112.412.8%48.7%35.9%
90 days3291.213.333.400.346.33834.1%13.2%29.3%84.6112.410.9%50.0%39.1%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 46 balls in play
Ground 30%Line drive 26%Fly ball 41%Pop-up 2%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G524.312.478.500.465.42620.8%16.7%26.7%83.1105.67.7%38.5%38.5%
Last 15 G1558.200.421.300.380.35831.0%22.4%28.7%83.8107.28.3%45.8%33.3%
Last 30 G30105.188.327.353.326.34233.3%14.3%30.2%84.1112.411.5%48.1%38.5%
90 days34124.196.325.343.326.32435.5%13.7%31.0%83.6112.410.0%48.3%41.7%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 60 balls in play
Ground 30%Line drive 32%Fly ball 33%Pop-up 5%
Kyle Teel · percentile ranksvs 228 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating72Above average
Last 100 pitches98trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.320 / .339running 19 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit5/12
2+ total bases2/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPCurveball80.6100.441.257Out
Sep 25RHPFastball92.891.426.114Sac fly
Sep 25RHPFastball94.2103.6-9.277Single
Sep 25RHPSlider85.942.8-46.214Force out
Sep 24RHPFastball95.291.319.471Single
Sep 24RHPSinker90.838.6-34–Sac bunt
Sep 24RHPFastball96.3105.6281.857Home run
Sep 23RHPFastball93.0100.315.716Single
Sep 22LHPSinker93.066.159.009Out
Sep 22LHPSinker93.198.1-4.241Double play
Sep 20RHPFastball96.977.336.075Out
Sep 20RHPCutter88.682.548.008Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25411000
Sep 24625110
Sep 23411012
Sep 22500012
Sep 20511011
Sep 19400002
Sep 18400001
Sep 16400012
Sep 15200020
Sep 14512013

Two strikes

Kyle Freeland COL · LHPwith two strikes
Kyle Freeland with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Curveball22%34%36.4%24.4%20.9%
Fastball20%21%6.7%7.4%18.4%
Cutter23%13%12.0%14.3%18.3%
Sweeper7%13%26.1%24.2%21.2%
Changeup12%13%7.1%9.1%18.3%
Sinker17%7%13.3%15.8%17.8%
Kyle Teel bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Kyle Teel with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Misses his two-strike stuff more than most
With two strikesHimLeague
K%50.1%44.3%
Whiff%27.0%23.6%
Contact%73.0%76.4%
Chase%36.7%38.0%
wOBA.229.223
Whiff vs his put-away shapes29.1%25.5%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeDBalanced type
wOBA.344
K%30.1%
BB%12.6%
Whiff%12.4%
Barrel%4.7%
Hard-hit%23.4%
Avg EV85.7

Against left-handers, last 90 days

33 PA
wOBA.300
xwOBA vs this mix.303against pitches like his
RV/100-0.25
Hard-hit%22.6%
K%30.5%
BB%13.0%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Kyle FreelandLHP · COL vs CWS
4.5projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 7 · 22.6 batters over 5.3 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 35.2%35%≤34 strikeouts: 19.0%19%45 strikeouts: 16.9%17%56 strikeouts: 12.5%12%67 strikeouts: 8.0%8%78 strikeouts: 4.5%5%89+ strikeouts: 3.9%4%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 46% (red bars) · under: 54%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%17.4%
BB%4.6%
Whiff%10.3%
Velo87.4
BTB Stuff85
Location101
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff%
Cutter23%8388.07.5%
Curveball22%9682.620.4%
Fastball20%8891.24.4%
Sinker17%8090.96.4%
Changeup12%6886.010.2%
Sweeper7%9483.214.1%
Last 3 startsTrending Down
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 226911%6%58%.537
Sep 15505%8%55%.525
Aug 196628%6%22%.461

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Kyle Freeland COL · LHPvsCWS lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

4 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.8%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameCOL @ CWS →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Kyle Teel: every projection we've made →