MLBengine v14
← COL at CWS, Sep 27, 2026
2:10 PM CT · Rate Field · lineup projected
Hitter · COL · batting 6Mickey Moniak
Bats leftTalent grade AvgBalancedHot
.279wOBA vs LHP.232xwOBA vs his mix3.6expected PA
Starter · CWSAnthony Kay
Throws leftBTB Stuff 106Trending Down
4.5projected K19%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Anthony Kay's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 31% usage, 95.3 mph, +6.7″ arm side, +15.1″ rise. Mickey Moniak: wOBA .317 vs league .343 (pitcher's edge).Fastball 31%Sweeper: 18% usage, 82.7 mph, -12.8″ arm side, +0.4″ rise. Mickey Moniak: wOBA .227 vs league .253 (pitcher's edge).Sweeper 18%Cutter: 14% usage, 91.5 mph, -1.3″ arm side, +6.7″ rise. Mickey Moniak: wOBA .275 vs league .301 (pitcher's edge).Cutter 14%Sinker: 13% usage, 95.3 mph, +16.2″ arm side, +5.0″ rise. Mickey Moniak: wOBA .298 vs league .324 (pitcher's edge).Sinker 13%Changeup: 13% usage, 86.1 mph, +14.0″ arm side, +0.6″ rise. Mickey Moniak: wOBA .280 vs league .306 (pitcher's edge).Changeup 13%Slider: 9% usage, 86.2 mph, -4.3″ arm side, -3.3″ rise. Mickey Moniak: wOBA .235 vs league .261 (pitcher's edge).Slider 9%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Mickey Moniak's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Mickey Moniak's last 40 balls in playHit (10)Out (30)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 87.6 mph at 25°Out: 99.8 mph at 7°Out: 100.4 mph at -6°Out: 86.3 mph at -4°Home run: 106.8 mph at 40°Out: 93.3 mph at 56°Out: 100.2 mph at 6°Out: 87.9 mph at 10°Out: 91.0 mph at 53°Out: 101.4 mph at -13°Triple: 96.8 mph at 20°Out: 99.7 mph at 21°Single: 73.0 mph at 12°Single: 99.9 mph at -10°Out: 102.3 mph at 27°Out: 84.2 mph at 30°Triple: 99.9 mph at 13°Out: 94.2 mph at 46°Out: 71.8 mph at 16°Out: 72.8 mph at 61°Double: 107.7 mph at 15°Out: 76.0 mph at 4°Out: 98.3 mph at -18°Out: 92.4 mph at 65°Home run: 108.7 mph at 26°Single: 80.7 mph at 20°Out: 78.0 mph at -35°Out: 86.5 mph at -12°Out: 72.7 mph at 12°Out: 88.2 mph at -9°Out: 80.3 mph at 64°Out: 89.1 mph at 83°Single: 105.3 mph at 14°Out: 95.2 mph at 42°Out: 94.6 mph at 63°Out: 69.3 mph at -8°Out: 87.3 mph at -19°Out: 45.6 mph at -34°Single: 92.0 mph at 12°Out: 83.3 mph at 51°
38% hit 95+ mph38% in the sweet spot25% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit55.2%56.5%-1.3
2+ total bases32.0%33.9%-2.0
Home run10.8%12.8%-1.9
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-0.8
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.3
Park
-0.2
2+ total bases
Starter
-1.5
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.3
Park
-0.2
Home run
Starter
-1.8
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
-0.1

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Mickey Moniak hits
Where they meet

.260 xwOBA for Mickey Moniak in the spots Anthony Kay throws to lefties

The average hitter in those same spots: .304 (-44 points). His best spot against lefties is middle-left, and Anthony Kay puts 8% of his pitches there. Context only; the projection reads pitch type, not location.

Anthony Kay · where he throws to left-handed hitters
4% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 38% per swing4%3% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 43% per swing3%3% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 17% per swing3%8% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 29% per swing8%5% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing5%6% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 18% per swing6%6% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 23% per swing6%7% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 6% per swing7%4% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 8% per swing4%6% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 40% per swing6%11% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 14% per swing11%30% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 50% per swing30%8% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 11% per swing8%
All · 335 pitches · catcher's view
2% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters2%3% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters3%3% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters3%6% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters6%7% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters7%10% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters10%7% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters7%10% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters10%7% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters7%3% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters3%13% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters13%14% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters14%15% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters15%
Sinker · 152 pitches · catcher's view
4% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters4%1% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters1%2% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters2%8% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters8%2% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters2%3% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters3%8% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters8%7% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters7%1% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters1%2% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters2%10% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters10%51% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters51%2% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters2%
Sweeper · 93 pitches · catcher's view
10% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters10%4% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters4%6% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters6%8% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters8%10% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters10%4% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters4%2% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters2%0% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters4% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters4%19% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters19%15% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters15%19% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters19%0% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters
Fastball · 52 pitches · catcher's view
0% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters0% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters0% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters10% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters10%0% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters0% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters0% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters5% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters5%0% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters10% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters10%0% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters71% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters71%5% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters5%
Slider · 21 pitches · catcher's view
0% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters12% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters12%0% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters18% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters18%0% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters0% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters12% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters12%0% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters0% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters12% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters12%0% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters47% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters47%0% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters
Cutter · 17 pitches · catcher's view

Share of his pitches in each spot; darker is more. Last 90 days.

Mickey Moniak · hot and cold vs LHP
xwOBA .208 shrunk (raw .000 on 2 PA) · league .243 · 7 pitches seen.208xwOBA .281 shrunk (raw .245 on 5 PA) · league .296 · 9 pitches seen.281xwOBA .219 shrunk (raw .134 on 5 PA) · league .254 · 11 pitches seen.219xwOBA .384 shrunk (raw .612 on 4 PA) · league .308 · 9 pitches seen.384xwOBA .335 shrunk (raw .137 on 3 PA) · league .385 · 10 pitches seen.335xwOBA .267 shrunk (raw .120 on 6 PA) · league .340 · 11 pitches seen.267xwOBA .260 shrunk (raw .208 on 3 PA) · league .273 · 8 pitches seen.260xwOBA .330 shrunk (raw .252 on 3 PA) · league .350 · 9 pitches seen.330xwOBA .259 shrunk (raw .099 on 3 PA) · league .299 · 9 pitches seen.259xwOBA .279 shrunk (raw .000 on 1 PA) · league .302 · 8 pitches seen.279xwOBA .306 shrunk (raw .245 on 8 PA) · league .346 · 27 pitches seen.306xwOBA .183 shrunk (raw .086 on 13 PA) · league .289 · 54 pitches seen.183xwOBA .270 shrunk (raw .349 on 2 PA) · league .257 · 12 pitches seen.270
vs LHP · 184 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 100% of 2 swings · league 19%100%Whiff 20% of 5 swings · league 21%20%Whiff 0% of 7 swings · league 23%0%Whiff 17% of 6 swings · league 9%17%Whiff 0% of 8 swings · league 10%0%Whiff 10% of 10 swings · league 11%10%Whiff 17% of 6 swings · league 17%17%Whiff 29% of 7 swings · league 14%29%Whiff 14% of 7 swings · league 16%14%Whiff 50% of 4 swings · league 25%50%Whiff 40% of 15 swings · league 29%40%Whiff 59% of 22 swings · league 48%59%Whiff 60% of 5 swings · league 34%60%
vs LHP · 184 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 29% of 7 pitches · league 63%29%Swings at 56% of 9 pitches · league 71%56%Swings at 64% of 11 pitches · league 64%64%Swings at 67% of 9 pitches · league 67%67%Swings at 80% of 10 pitches · league 76%80%Swings at 91% of 11 pitches · league 72%91%Swings at 75% of 8 pitches · league 59%75%Swings at 78% of 9 pitches · league 68%78%Swings at 78% of 9 pitches · league 66%78%Swings at 50% of 8 pitches · league 30%50%Swings at 56% of 27 pitches · league 26%56%Swings at 41% of 54 pitches · league 31%41%Swings at 42% of 12 pitches · league 41%42%
vs LHP · 184 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Mickey Moniak against each of Anthony Kay's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball31%95.3+7″ / +15″.317.34325.8%21.3%49About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Sweeper18%82.7-13″ / +0″.227.25343.5%33.3%49About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Cutter14%91.5-1″ / +7″.275.30132.5%27.7%39About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Sinker13%95.3+16″ / +5″.298.32416.5%13.6%51About league average vs these
Changeup13%86.1+14″ / +1″.280.30633.1%23.9%19About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Slider9%86.2-4″ / -3″.235.26143.6%34.5%52About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Mickey Moniak · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 GNo plate appearances
Last 15 G55.200.200.600.320.26820.0%0.0%28.6%80.399.90.0%25.0%50.0%
Last 30 G1731.172.194.379.266.18229.0%3.2%34.5%87.3104.54.8%28.6%23.8%
90 days3258.204.224.352.259.18829.3%3.4%31.7%86.3104.55.1%38.5%23.1%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 39 balls in play
Ground 41%Line drive 15%Fly ball 18%Pop-up 26%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G512.083.083.333.167.35233.3%0.0%28.0%95.3106.812.5%50.0%25.0%
Last 15 G1548.152.188.348.228.27241.7%4.2%35.8%93.0108.711.5%46.2%42.3%
Last 30 G2984.173.202.333.231.26433.3%3.6%30.9%92.5108.75.7%45.3%37.7%
90 days66198.223.258.446.301.27629.8%5.1%29.3%90.8108.78.5%44.2%35.7%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 129 balls in play
Ground 38%Line drive 21%Fly ball 29%Pop-up 12%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G512.083.083.333.167.35233.3%0.0%28.0%95.3106.812.5%50.0%25.0%
Last 15 G1553.157.189.373.237.27239.6%3.8%35.3%91.3108.710.0%43.3%43.3%
Last 30 G30115.173.200.345.240.24232.2%3.5%31.7%91.0108.75.4%40.5%33.8%
90 days67256.218.250.424.292.25629.7%4.7%29.8%89.8108.77.7%42.9%32.7%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 168 balls in play
Ground 39%Line drive 20%Fly ball 26%Pop-up 16%
Mickey Moniak · percentile ranksvs 228 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormHot
Contact rating12Poor
Last 100 pitches48trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.292 / .266running 26 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit5/12
2+ total bases5/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPChangeup86.687.625.108Out
Sep 25RHPFastball94.999.87.591Out
Sep 23RHPChangeup88.6100.4-6.288Out
Sep 23RHPFastball91.686.3-4.152Out
Sep 22RHPChangeup86.2106.8402.000Home run
Sep 19RHPCutter94.593.356.022Out
Sep 19RHPChangeup84.8100.26.598Force out
Sep 19RHPSlider88.187.910.461Out
Sep 18RHPFastball95.791.053.003Out
Sep 18RHPChangeup89.9101.4-13.197Out
Sep 18RHPFastball96.696.820.340Triple
Sep 17RHPSlider85.699.721.464Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25200000
Sep 23200000
Sep 22314102
Sep 20100001
Sep 19400001
Sep 18513002
Sep 17422010
Sep 15413001
Sep 14500011
Sep 13412003

Two strikes

Anthony Kay CWS · LHPwith two strikes
Anthony Kay with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Slider8%24%23.5%15.3%22.2%
Fastball19%21%19.6%16.4%18.4%
Sinker18%17%16.7%21.3%17.8%
Changeup14%16%25.0%14.5%18.3%
Sweeper25%13%37.0%27.3%21.2%
Cutter16%9%8.0%6.2%18.3%
Mickey Moniak bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Mickey Moniak with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Misses his two-strike stuff more than most
With two strikesHimLeague
K%55.2%44.3%
Whiff%33.1%23.6%
Contact%66.9%76.4%
Chase%48.2%38.0%
wOBA.188.223
Whiff vs his put-away shapes33.4%24.1%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeAvgBalanced type
wOBA.314
K%28.9%
BB%4.9%
Whiff%16.6%
Barrel%6.2%
Hard-hit%28.2%
Avg EV89.7

Against left-handers, last 90 days

58 PA
wOBA.279
xwOBA vs this mix.232against pitches like his
RV/100-0.82
Hard-hit%26.1%
K%27.5%
BB%4.9%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Anthony KayLHP · CWS vs COL
4.5projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 7 · 21.6 batters over 5.1 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 34.7%35%≤34 strikeouts: 19.0%19%45 strikeouts: 16.9%17%56 strikeouts: 12.6%13%67 strikeouts: 8.2%8%78 strikeouts: 4.6%5%89+ strikeouts: 4.0%4%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 46% (red bars) · under: 54%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%18.6%
BB%7.1%
Whiff%11.2%
Velo90.0
BTB Stuff106
Location100
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff%
Sweeper25%10982.811.8%
Fastball19%9996.010.6%
Sinker17%11395.66.9%
Cutter16%12292.68.5%
Changeup14%7886.418.3%
Slider8%12286.612.6%
Last 3 startsTrending Down
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 226520%11%35%.458
Sep 166618%12%6%.241
Sep 116711%2%26%.347

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Anthony Kay CWS · LHPvsCOL lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

3 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.8%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameCOL @ CWS →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Mickey Moniak: every projection we've made →