MLBengine v14
← COL at CWS, Sep 27, 2026
2:10 PM CT · Rate Field · lineup projected
Hitter · CWS · batting 3Miguel Vargas
Bats rightTalent grade BBalancedCold
.338wOBA vs LHP.336xwOBA vs his mix3.8expected PA
Starter · COLKyle Freeland
Throws leftBTB Stuff 85Trending Down
4.5projected K17%K%2.7trips vs this hitter
Kyle Freeland's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 24% usage, 91.1 mph, +7.0″ arm side, +14.0″ rise. Miguel Vargas: wOBA .363 vs league .362 (about even).Fastball 24%Cutter: 21% usage, 86.2 mph, -1.2″ arm side, +5.4″ rise. Miguel Vargas: wOBA .340 vs league .338 (about even).Cutter 21%Curveball: 20% usage, 81.9 mph, -2.4″ arm side, -6.2″ rise. Miguel Vargas: wOBA .303 vs league .301 (about even).Curveball 20%Sinker: 18% usage, 90.4 mph, +13.3″ arm side, +6.7″ rise. Miguel Vargas: wOBA .366 vs league .364 (about even).Sinker 18%Changeup: 12% usage, 85.4 mph, +11.4″ arm side, +6.7″ rise. Miguel Vargas: wOBA .318 vs league .317 (about even).Changeup 12%Sweeper: 4% usage, 83.4 mph, -9.2″ arm side, -3.3″ rise. Miguel Vargas: wOBA .302 vs league .300 (about even).Sweeper 4%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Miguel Vargas's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Miguel Vargas's last 40 balls in playHit (15)Out (25)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 98.3 mph at 52°Out: 82.9 mph at 46°Out: 80.2 mph at 45°Single: 102.7 mph at 14°Single: 96.3 mph at 13°Single: 64.2 mph at 28°Out: 95.6 mph at 66°Out: 60.2 mph at 14°Out: 76.7 mph at 10°Single: 95.2 mph at -6°Out: 82.4 mph at -21°Out: 93.8 mph at 74°Out: 88.9 mph at 20°Single: 93.9 mph at 6°Home run: 102.2 mph at 33°Out: 90.4 mph at 30°Home run: 101.7 mph at 34°Double: 102.0 mph at 21°Out: 94.9 mph at 42°Out: 93.1 mph at 68°Out: 92.0 mph at -6°Out: 64.5 mph at -40°Out: 76.7 mph at 42°Single: 107.5 mph at 9°Out: 96.0 mph at -10°Out: 95.3 mph at 66°Out: 89.6 mph at 52°Single: 78.1 mph at 20°Out: 92.8 mph at 62°Single: 59.3 mph at -74°Out: 87.7 mph at 44°Out: 89.0 mph at 60°Home run: 105.3 mph at 30°Out: 74.7 mph at 47°Out: 65.9 mph at -37°Single: 76.3 mph at 16°Single: 68.7 mph at 35°Out: 94.7 mph at 33°Single: 101.4 mph at 16°Out: 104.3 mph at 33°
35% hit 95+ mph33% in the sweet spot38% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit66.0%61.5%+4.5
2+ total bases43.1%38.1%+5.0
Home run18.2%13.8%+4.4
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+4.4
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.2
Park
-0.2
2+ total bases
Starter
+5.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.2
Park
-0.1
Home run
Starter
+4.2
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
+0.1

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Miguel Vargas hits
Where they meet

.329 xwOBA for Miguel Vargas in the spots Kyle Freeland throws to righties

The average hitter in those same spots: .308 (+21 points). His best spot against lefties is down-right, and Kyle Freeland puts 4% of his pitches there. Context only; the projection reads pitch type, not location.

Kyle Freeland · where he throws to right-handed hitters
2% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing2%3% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 25% per swing3%3% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 14% per swing3%3% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing3%7% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 6% per swing7%6% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 4% per swing6%4% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 11% per swing4%7% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 12% per swing7%4% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 20% per swing4%6% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 7% per swing6%18% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 24% per swing18%19% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 44% per swing19%16% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 31% per swing16%
All · 613 pitches · catcher's view
0% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters0% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters3% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters3%3% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters3%5% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters5%4% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters4%8% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters8%8% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters8%3% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters3%0% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters11% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters11%46% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters46%10% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters10%
Curveball · 151 pitches · catcher's view
3% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters3%6% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters6%3% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters3%3% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters3%6% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters6%8% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters8%3% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters3%11% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters11%5% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters5%11% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters11%21% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters21%10% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters10%11% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters11%
Cutter · 145 pitches · catcher's view
6% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters6%5% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters5%3% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters3%7% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters7%10% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters10%7% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters7%1% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters1%3% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters3%3% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters3%12% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters12%30% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters30%6% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters6%9% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters9%
Fastball · 122 pitches · catcher's view
0% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters2% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters2%2% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters2%1% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters1%7% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters7%8% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters8%3% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters3%7% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters7%5% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters5%1% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters1%6% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters6%16% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters16%41% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters41%
Changeup · 97 pitches · catcher's view
3% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters3%4% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters4%1% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters1%1% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters1%12% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters12%7% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters7%5% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters5%7% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters7%8% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters8%1% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters1%26% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters26%7% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters7%18% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters18%
Sinker · 76 pitches · catcher's view
5% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters5%5% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters5%5% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters5%0% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters5% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters5%0% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters9% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters9%5% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters5%0% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters18% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters18%14% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters14%27% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters27%9% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters9%
Sweeper · 22 pitches · catcher's view

Share of his pitches in each spot; darker is more. Last 90 days.

Miguel Vargas · hot and cold vs LHP
xwOBA .210 shrunk (raw .143 on 6 PA) · league .243 · 15 pitches seen.210xwOBA .249 shrunk (raw .061 on 3 PA) · league .296 · 17 pitches seen.249xwOBA .280 shrunk (raw .332 on 6 PA) · league .254 · 27 pitches seen.280xwOBA .332 shrunk (raw .372 on 7 PA) · league .308 · 18 pitches seen.332xwOBA .446 shrunk (raw .538 on 8 PA) · league .385 · 20 pitches seen.446xwOBA .289 shrunk (raw .228 on 10 PA) · league .340 · 35 pitches seen.289xwOBA .179 shrunk (raw .019 on 7 PA) · league .273 · 21 pitches seen.179xwOBA .389 shrunk (raw .457 on 7 PA) · league .350 · 18 pitches seen.389xwOBA .463 shrunk (raw .791 on 6 PA) · league .299 · 15 pitches seen.463xwOBA .288 shrunk (raw .233 on 3 PA) · league .302 · 25 pitches seen.288xwOBA .398 shrunk (raw .501 on 6 PA) · league .346 · 60 pitches seen.398xwOBA .283 shrunk (raw .277 on 13 PA) · league .289 · 75 pitches seen.283xwOBA .304 shrunk (raw .340 on 16 PA) · league .257 · 60 pitches seen.304
vs LHP · 406 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 10% of 10 swings · league 19%10%Whiff 25% of 12 swings · league 21%25%Whiff 12% of 17 swings · league 23%12%Whiff 11% of 9 swings · league 9%11%Whiff 12% of 17 swings · league 10%12%Whiff 10% of 29 swings · league 11%10%Whiff 0% of 9 swings · league 17%0%Whiff 12% of 17 swings · league 14%12%Whiff 30% of 10 swings · league 16%30%Whiff 100% of 2 swings · league 25%100%Whiff 14% of 7 swings · league 29%14%Whiff 24% of 17 swings · league 48%24%Whiff 33% of 21 swings · league 34%33%
vs LHP · 406 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 67% of 15 pitches · league 63%67%Swings at 71% of 17 pitches · league 71%71%Swings at 63% of 27 pitches · league 64%63%Swings at 50% of 18 pitches · league 67%50%Swings at 85% of 20 pitches · league 76%85%Swings at 83% of 35 pitches · league 72%83%Swings at 43% of 21 pitches · league 59%43%Swings at 94% of 18 pitches · league 68%94%Swings at 67% of 15 pitches · league 66%67%Swings at 8% of 25 pitches · league 30%8%Swings at 12% of 60 pitches · league 26%12%Swings at 23% of 75 pitches · league 31%23%Swings at 35% of 60 pitches · league 41%35%
vs LHP · 406 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Miguel Vargas against each of Kyle Freeland's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball24%91.1+7″ / +14″.363.36215.8%16.0%164About league average vs these
Cutter21%86.2-1″ / +5″.340.33824.0%25.7%77About league average vs these
Curveball20%81.9-2″ / -6″.303.30121.4%33.2%51About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Sinker18%90.4+13″ / +7″.366.36413.9%14.3%136About league average vs these
Changeup12%85.4+11″ / +7″.318.31714.8%28.2%85About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Sweeper4%83.4-9″ / -3″.302.30019.7%30.9%60About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Miguel Vargas · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G37.333.429.333.357.3230.0%14.3%0.0%88.895.60.0%33.3%33.3%
Last 15 G1023.263.348.263.287.28417.4%13.0%17.1%86.6107.50.0%31.2%25.0%
Last 30 G1734.259.382.259.309.29220.6%17.6%16.4%85.9107.50.0%28.6%28.6%
90 days50102.226.343.417.339.35720.6%15.7%17.5%91.4111.09.2%46.2%35.4%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 65 balls in play
Ground 34%Line drive 17%Fly ball 32%Pop-up 17%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G517.250.412.250.324.32129.4%23.5%29.6%84.8102.70.0%37.5%50.0%
Last 15 G1546.270.391.541.397.37619.6%17.4%23.5%85.7105.313.8%34.5%31.0%
Last 30 G30101.279.376.430.358.35119.8%13.9%17.8%87.3105.37.5%34.3%35.8%
90 days77250.267.372.490.377.36818.4%14.0%19.2%89.7111.211.4%41.3%37.7%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 167 balls in play
Ground 30%Line drive 23%Fly ball 33%Pop-up 14%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G524.278.417.278.333.32220.8%20.8%23.5%86.5102.70.0%35.7%42.9%
Last 15 G1569.268.377.446.360.34518.8%15.9%21.6%86.0107.58.9%33.3%28.9%
Last 30 G30135.274.378.389.346.33620.0%14.8%17.5%87.0107.55.7%33.0%34.1%
90 days78352.255.364.469.366.36519.0%14.5%18.7%90.2111.210.8%42.7%37.1%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 232 balls in play
Ground 31%Line drive 21%Fly ball 33%Pop-up 15%
Miguel Vargas · percentile ranksvs 228 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormCold
Contact rating89Excellent
Last 100 pitches95trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.357 / .365results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit10/12
2+ total bases4/12
Home run3/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPFastball93.398.352.010Out
Sep 25RHPFastball95.082.946.018Out
Sep 25RHPCurveball81.880.245.030Sac fly
Sep 24RHPSinker92.0102.714.794Single
Sep 24RHPSinker91.196.313.907Single
Sep 23RHPCutter91.064.228.725Single
Sep 23LHPFastball91.795.666.020Out
Sep 23RHPSinker94.060.214.179Out
Sep 23LHPFastball95.676.710.301Double play
Sep 22LHPCurveball83.495.2-6.241Single
Sep 22LHPChangeup85.082.4-21.041Out
Sep 22RHPFastball93.293.874.006Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25400001
Sep 24622013
Sep 23411000
Sep 22511010
Sep 20511031
Sep 19414120
Sep 18526101
Sep 17400011
Sep 16411001
Sep 15511010

Two strikes

Kyle Freeland COL · LHPwith two strikes
Kyle Freeland with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Curveball22%34%36.4%24.4%20.9%
Fastball20%21%6.7%7.4%18.4%
Cutter23%13%12.0%14.3%18.3%
Sweeper7%13%26.1%24.2%21.2%
Changeup12%13%7.1%9.1%18.3%
Sinker17%7%13.3%15.8%17.8%
Miguel Vargas bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Miguel Vargas with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Makes contact on his two-strike stuff more than most
With two strikesHimLeague
K%35.8%41.4%
Whiff%15.5%22.0%
Contact%84.5%78.0%
Chase%35.9%40.7%
wOBA.242.248
Whiff vs his put-away shapes17.9%25.0%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeBBalanced type
wOBA.346
K%19.3%
BB%13.4%
Whiff%8.5%
Barrel%6.6%
Hard-hit%28.1%
Avg EV90.0

Against left-handers, last 90 days

102 PA
wOBA.338
xwOBA vs this mix.336against pitches like his
RV/1000.01
Hard-hit%28.9%
K%20.7%
BB%13.8%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Kyle FreelandLHP · COL vs CWS
4.5projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 7 · 22.6 batters over 5.3 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 35.2%35%≤34 strikeouts: 19.0%19%45 strikeouts: 16.9%17%56 strikeouts: 12.5%12%67 strikeouts: 8.0%8%78 strikeouts: 4.5%5%89+ strikeouts: 3.9%4%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 46% (red bars) · under: 54%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%17.4%
BB%4.6%
Whiff%10.3%
Velo87.4
BTB Stuff85
Location101
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff%
Cutter23%8388.07.5%
Curveball22%9682.620.4%
Fastball20%8891.24.4%
Sinker17%8090.96.4%
Changeup12%6886.010.2%
Sweeper7%9483.214.1%
Last 3 startsTrending Down
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 226911%6%58%.537
Sep 15505%8%55%.525
Aug 196628%6%22%.461

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Kyle Freeland COL · LHPvsCWS lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

4 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.8%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameCOL @ CWS →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Miguel Vargas: every projection we've made →