MLBengine v14
← COL at CWS, Sep 27, 2026
2:10 PM CT · Rate Field · lineup projected
Hitter · CWS · batting 4Munetaka Murakami
Bats leftTalent grade APowerHot
.316wOBA vs LHP.373xwOBA vs his mix3.8expected PA
Starter · COLKyle Freeland
Throws leftBTB Stuff 85Trending Down
4.5projected K17%K%2.7trips vs this hitter
Kyle Freeland's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 24% usage, 91.1 mph, +7.0″ arm side, +14.0″ rise. Munetaka Murakami: wOBA .362 vs league .353 (about even).Fastball 24%Cutter: 21% usage, 86.2 mph, -1.2″ arm side, +5.4″ rise. Munetaka Murakami: wOBA .296 vs league .288 (about even).Cutter 21%Curveball: 20% usage, 81.9 mph, -2.4″ arm side, -6.2″ rise. Munetaka Murakami: wOBA .276 vs league .268 (about even).Curveball 20%Sinker: 18% usage, 90.4 mph, +13.3″ arm side, +6.7″ rise. Munetaka Murakami: wOBA .342 vs league .334 (about even).Sinker 18%Changeup: 12% usage, 85.4 mph, +11.4″ arm side, +6.7″ rise. Munetaka Murakami: wOBA .317 vs league .309 (about even).Changeup 12%Sweeper: 4% usage, 83.4 mph, -9.2″ arm side, -3.3″ rise. Munetaka Murakami: wOBA .272 vs league .264 (about even).Sweeper 4%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Munetaka Murakami's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Munetaka Murakami's last 40 balls in playHit (14)Out (26)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Home run: 109.4 mph at 30°Home run: 103.3 mph at 37°Single: 113.0 mph at 18°Out: 82.7 mph at -3°Single: 102.3 mph at 23°Double: 107.1 mph at 20°Out: 106.8 mph at 45°Out: 100.5 mph at 35°Out: 96.2 mph at 0°Home run: 109.1 mph at 24°Out: 91.6 mph at -15°Out: 83.7 mph at -26°Single: 73.7 mph at 31°Out: 66.3 mph at -34°Out: 94.7 mph at 7°Home run: 109.1 mph at 35°Triple: 88.5 mph at 9°Out: 72.7 mph at -8°Out: 90.7 mph at -28°Single: 104.6 mph at 13°Out: 80.8 mph at -8°Out: 66.1 mph at -59°Out: 84.6 mph at 25°Out: 97.3 mph at 39°Out: 93.6 mph at 9°Home run: 110.0 mph at 43°Single: 98.5 mph at 5°Out: 98.4 mph at 52°Out: 89.2 mph at -34°Home run: 103.6 mph at 49°Out: 97.5 mph at 58°Out: 107.6 mph at 47°Out: 75.2 mph at -3°Out: 86.9 mph at -17°Out: 82.5 mph at 53°Out: 59.7 mph at 5°Single: 107.2 mph at 17°Out: 106.0 mph at 47°Out: 107.5 mph at 52°Out: 92.6 mph at 54°
53% hit 95+ mph28% in the sweet spot35% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit56.5%51.3%+5.2
2+ total bases38.4%33.6%+4.9
Home run19.5%15.9%+3.7
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+4.9
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.4
Park
-0.1
2+ total bases
Starter
+4.4
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.6
Park
-0.1
Home run
Starter
+3.1
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.4
Park
+0.1

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Munetaka Murakami hits
Where they meet

.351 xwOBA for Munetaka Murakami in the spots Kyle Freeland throws to lefties

The average hitter in those same spots: .306 (+45 points). His best spot against lefties is middle-left, and Kyle Freeland puts 9% of his pitches there. Context only; the projection reads pitch type, not location.

Kyle Freeland · where he throws to left-handed hitters
3% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 50% per swing3%4% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 22% per swing4%5% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 11% per swing5%9% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 12% per swing9%9% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 8% per swing9%5% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing5%7% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 36% per swing7%6% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 27% per swing6%5% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing5%4% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing4%11% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing11%27% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 55% per swing27%7% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 22% per swing7%
All · 310 pitches · catcher's view
0% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters4% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters4%3% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters3%8% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters8%3% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters3%9% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters9%6% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters6%8% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters8%10% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters10%0% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters16% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters16%13% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters13%23% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters23%
Sinker · 80 pitches · catcher's view
8% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters8%9% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters9%8% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters8%10% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters10%19% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters19%2% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters2%8% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters8%2% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters2%2% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters2%9% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters9%5% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters5%21% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters21%0% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters
Cutter · 67 pitches · catcher's view
7% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters7%5% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters5%8% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters8%12% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters12%13% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters13%5% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters5%7% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters7%8% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters8%2% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters2%5% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters5%10% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters10%17% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters17%2% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters2%
Fastball · 60 pitches · catcher's view
0% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters2% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters2%2% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters2%2% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters2%2% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters2%4% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters4%8% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters8%10% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters10%6% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters6%0% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters12% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters12%50% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters50%2% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters2%
Curveball · 50 pitches · catcher's view
0% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters0% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters5% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters5%14% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters14%5% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters5%2% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters2%7% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters7%2% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters2%2% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters2%5% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters5%14% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters14%43% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters43%0% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters
Sweeper · 42 pitches · catcher's view

Share of his pitches in each spot; darker is more. Last 90 days.

Munetaka Murakami · hot and cold vs LHP
xwOBA .182 shrunk (raw .000 on 4 PA) · league .243 · 9 pitches seen.182xwOBA .304 shrunk (raw .322 on 5 PA) · league .296 · 16 pitches seen.304xwOBA .191 shrunk (raw .000 on 4 PA) · league .254 · 17 pitches seen.191xwOBA .432 shrunk (raw .556 on 12 PA) · league .308 · 30 pitches seen.432xwOBA .501 shrunk (raw .699 on 7 PA) · league .385 · 27 pitches seen.501xwOBA .267 shrunk (raw .142 on 7 PA) · league .340 · 23 pitches seen.267xwOBA .264 shrunk (raw .244 on 5 PA) · league .273 · 18 pitches seen.264xwOBA .381 shrunk (raw .504 on 3 PA) · league .350 · 19 pitches seen.381xwOBA .299 shrunk (raw .298 on 3 PA) · league .299 · 9 pitches seen.299xwOBA .335 shrunk (raw .465 on 3 PA) · league .302 · 35 pitches seen.335xwOBA .467 shrunk (raw .628 on 9 PA) · league .346 · 38 pitches seen.467xwOBA .347 shrunk (raw .378 on 22 PA) · league .289 · 136 pitches seen.347xwOBA .268 shrunk (raw .288 on 7 PA) · league .257 · 29 pitches seen.268
vs LHP · 406 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 83% of 6 swings · league 19%83%Whiff 50% of 10 swings · league 21%50%Whiff 67% of 12 swings · league 23%67%Whiff 29% of 21 swings · league 9%29%Whiff 29% of 17 swings · league 10%29%Whiff 15% of 13 swings · league 11%15%Whiff 42% of 12 swings · league 17%42%Whiff 42% of 12 swings · league 14%42%Whiff 13% of 8 swings · league 16%13%Whiff 100% of 3 swings · league 25%100%Whiff 75% of 4 swings · league 29%75%Whiff 43% of 30 swings · league 48%43%Whiff 15% of 13 swings · league 34%15%
vs LHP · 406 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 67% of 9 pitches · league 63%67%Swings at 63% of 16 pitches · league 71%63%Swings at 71% of 17 pitches · league 64%71%Swings at 70% of 30 pitches · league 67%70%Swings at 63% of 27 pitches · league 76%63%Swings at 56% of 23 pitches · league 72%56%Swings at 67% of 18 pitches · league 59%67%Swings at 63% of 19 pitches · league 68%63%Swings at 89% of 9 pitches · league 66%89%Swings at 9% of 35 pitches · league 30%9%Swings at 11% of 38 pitches · league 26%11%Swings at 22% of 136 pitches · league 31%22%Swings at 45% of 29 pitches · league 41%45%
vs LHP · 406 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Munetaka Murakami against each of Kyle Freeland's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball24%91.1+7″ / +14″.362.35332.2%17.5%49About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Cutter21%86.2-1″ / +5″.296.28850.2%31.7%30About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Curveball20%81.9-2″ / -6″.276.26844.8%33.1%20About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Sinker18%90.4+13″ / +7″.342.33424.0%12.4%34About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Changeup12%85.4+11″ / +7″.317.30938.3%27.8%9About league average vs these
Sweeper4%83.4-9″ / -3″.272.26445.0%33.0%29About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Munetaka Murakami · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G36.000.667.000.467.6490.0%50.0%0.0%98.3100.50.0%100.0%0.0%
Last 15 G919.182.526.455.447.55421.1%36.8%32.1%95.9109.114.3%57.1%28.6%
Last 30 G1833.150.485.300.391.45730.3%33.3%35.7%94.6109.110.0%50.0%30.0%
90 days4791.157.352.314.314.38633.0%20.9%39.1%94.1113.417.5%62.5%32.5%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 40 balls in play
Ground 38%Line drive 28%Fly ball 28%Pop-up 8%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G517.400.4711.067.615.59935.3%5.9%38.5%102.8113.055.6%77.8%55.6%
Last 15 G1443.211.302.526.350.32746.5%7.0%46.1%92.1113.027.8%44.4%44.4%
Last 30 G2996.167.271.393.291.25445.8%10.4%41.2%93.3113.020.0%47.5%30.0%
90 days65207.194.319.463.341.30940.1%14.0%41.1%93.4113.019.8%51.6%31.9%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 91 balls in play
Ground 42%Line drive 17%Fly ball 30%Pop-up 12%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G523.353.522.941.576.61226.1%17.4%29.4%102.0113.045.5%81.8%45.5%
Last 15 G1562.204.371.510.380.39638.7%16.1%42.3%93.1113.024.0%48.0%40.0%
Last 30 G30129.163.326.375.316.30641.9%16.3%39.9%93.5113.018.0%48.0%30.0%
90 days68298.184.329.420.333.33337.9%16.1%40.5%93.6113.419.1%55.0%32.1%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 131 balls in play
Ground 41%Line drive 20%Fly ball 29%Pop-up 11%
Munetaka Murakami · percentile ranksvs 228 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormHot
Contact rating79Above average
Last 100 pitches100trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.332 / .348running 16 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit6/12
2+ total bases4/12
Home run3/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPSinker92.9109.4302.018Home run
Sep 25RHPSlider86.0103.337.824Home run
Sep 25RHPFastball95.3113.0181.305Single
Sep 24RHPChangeup83.982.7-3.130Force out
Sep 24RHPFastball96.9102.323.859Single
Sep 23RHPSweeper80.8107.1201.074Double
Sep 23RHPSinker89.6106.845.453Out
Sep 23LHPFastball95.7100.535.688Out
Sep 22LHPSlider85.896.20.383Out
Sep 22RHPCurveball81.6109.1241.946Home run
Sep 20RHPCutter88.891.6-15.148Out
Sep 19RHPCurveball86.683.7-26.052Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25439201
Sep 24511012
Sep 23412001
Sep 22514111
Sep 20500021
Sep 19411002
Sep 18500012
Sep 17427102
Sep 16200010
Sep 15500014

Two strikes

Kyle Freeland COL · LHPwith two strikes
Kyle Freeland with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Curveball22%34%36.4%24.4%20.9%
Fastball20%21%6.7%7.4%18.4%
Cutter23%13%12.0%14.3%18.3%
Sweeper7%13%26.1%24.2%21.2%
Changeup12%13%7.1%9.1%18.3%
Sinker17%7%13.3%15.8%17.8%
Munetaka Murakami bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Munetaka Murakami with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Misses his two-strike stuff more than most
With two strikesHimLeague
K%49.5%44.3%
Whiff%28.8%23.6%
Contact%71.2%76.4%
Chase%31.1%38.0%
wOBA.230.223
Whiff vs his put-away shapes30.8%25.5%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeAPower type
wOBA.327
K%35.8%
BB%14.9%
Whiff%15.0%
Barrel%7.6%
Hard-hit%24.4%
Avg EV92.9

Against left-handers, last 90 days

91 PA
wOBA.316
xwOBA vs this mix.373against pitches like his
RV/100-0.08
Hard-hit%27.0%
K%32.5%
BB%15.7%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Kyle FreelandLHP · COL vs CWS
4.5projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 7 · 22.6 batters over 5.3 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 35.2%35%≤34 strikeouts: 19.0%19%45 strikeouts: 16.9%17%56 strikeouts: 12.5%12%67 strikeouts: 8.0%8%78 strikeouts: 4.5%5%89+ strikeouts: 3.9%4%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 46% (red bars) · under: 54%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%17.4%
BB%4.6%
Whiff%10.3%
Velo87.4
BTB Stuff85
Location101
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff%
Cutter23%8388.07.5%
Curveball22%9682.620.4%
Fastball20%8891.24.4%
Sinker17%8090.96.4%
Changeup12%6886.010.2%
Sweeper7%9483.214.1%
Last 3 startsTrending Down
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 226911%6%58%.537
Sep 15505%8%55%.525
Aug 196628%6%22%.461

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Kyle Freeland COL · LHPvsCWS lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

4 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.8%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameCOL @ CWS →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Munetaka Murakami: every projection we've made →