MLBengine v14
← COL at CWS, Sep 27, 2026
2:10 PM CT · Rate Field · lineup projected
Hitter · CWS · batting 7Randal Grichuk
Bats rightTalent grade APowerHot
.407wOBA vs LHP.332xwOBA vs his mix3.5expected PA
Starter · COLKyle Freeland
Throws leftBTB Stuff 85Trending Down
4.5projected K17%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Kyle Freeland's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 24% usage, 91.1 mph, +7.0″ arm side, +14.0″ rise. Randal Grichuk: wOBA .397 vs league .362 (hitter's edge).Fastball 24%Cutter: 21% usage, 86.2 mph, -1.2″ arm side, +5.4″ rise. Randal Grichuk: wOBA .372 vs league .338 (hitter's edge).Cutter 21%Curveball: 20% usage, 81.9 mph, -2.4″ arm side, -6.2″ rise. Randal Grichuk: wOBA .335 vs league .301 (hitter's edge).Curveball 20%Sinker: 18% usage, 90.4 mph, +13.3″ arm side, +6.7″ rise. Randal Grichuk: wOBA .399 vs league .364 (hitter's edge).Sinker 18%Changeup: 12% usage, 85.4 mph, +11.4″ arm side, +6.7″ rise. Randal Grichuk: wOBA .352 vs league .317 (hitter's edge).Changeup 12%Sweeper: 4% usage, 83.4 mph, -9.2″ arm side, -3.3″ rise. Randal Grichuk: wOBA .334 vs league .300 (hitter's edge).Sweeper 4%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Randal Grichuk's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Randal Grichuk's last 40 balls in playHit (17)Out (23)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Single: 83.0 mph at 17°Out: 72.3 mph at 76°Out: 70.0 mph at 60°Out: 101.6 mph at 51°Out: 89.8 mph at -48°Home run: 105.2 mph at 29°Double: 109.7 mph at 17°Double: 99.1 mph at 16°Single: 100.2 mph at 1°Out: 82.2 mph at 39°Out: 97.6 mph at 38°Out: 96.1 mph at 20°Out: 66.7 mph at -20°Out: 98.8 mph at 22°Single: 108.1 mph at -5°Out: 87.4 mph at 53°Out: 95.9 mph at -6°Out: 102.0 mph at 49°Out: 71.8 mph at -33°Out: 87.1 mph at 63°Single: 97.7 mph at -3°Out: 76.9 mph at -3°Out: 58.6 mph at 63°Triple: 107.3 mph at 25°Out: 102.3 mph at 7°Single: 79.2 mph at 23°Out: 93.6 mph at 35°Out: 101.6 mph at 17°Out: 73.7 mph at -14°Single: 108.0 mph at 11°Home run: 96.6 mph at 31°Out: 85.1 mph at -12°Single: 101.6 mph at 9°Out: 91.4 mph at 39°Double: 104.7 mph at 12°Single: 103.0 mph at 10°Out: 88.4 mph at 44°Single: 99.9 mph at 4°Single: 90.6 mph at 12°Single: 111.0 mph at 3°
55% hit 95+ mph38% in the sweet spot43% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit65.3%61.6%+3.7
2+ total bases40.9%36.9%+4.0
Home run14.3%10.9%+3.4
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+3.5
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.4
Park
-0.2
2+ total bases
Starter
+3.8
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.3
Park
-0.2
Home run
Starter
+3.2
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
+0.1

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Randal Grichuk hits
Where they meet

.325 xwOBA for Randal Grichuk in the spots Kyle Freeland throws to righties

The average hitter in those same spots: .308 (+16 points). His best spot against lefties is down-right, and Kyle Freeland puts 4% of his pitches there. Context only; the projection reads pitch type, not location.

Kyle Freeland · where he throws to right-handed hitters
2% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing2%3% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 25% per swing3%3% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 14% per swing3%3% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing3%7% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 6% per swing7%6% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 4% per swing6%4% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 11% per swing4%7% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 12% per swing7%4% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 20% per swing4%6% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 7% per swing6%18% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 24% per swing18%19% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 44% per swing19%16% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 31% per swing16%
All · 613 pitches · catcher's view
0% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters0% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters3% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters3%3% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters3%5% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters5%4% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters4%8% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters8%8% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters8%3% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters3%0% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters11% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters11%46% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters46%10% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters10%
Curveball · 151 pitches · catcher's view
3% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters3%6% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters6%3% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters3%3% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters3%6% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters6%8% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters8%3% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters3%11% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters11%5% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters5%11% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters11%21% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters21%10% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters10%11% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters11%
Cutter · 145 pitches · catcher's view
6% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters6%5% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters5%3% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters3%7% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters7%10% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters10%7% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters7%1% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters1%3% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters3%3% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters3%12% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters12%30% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters30%6% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters6%9% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters9%
Fastball · 122 pitches · catcher's view
0% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters2% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters2%2% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters2%1% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters1%7% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters7%8% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters8%3% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters3%7% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters7%5% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters5%1% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters1%6% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters6%16% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters16%41% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters41%
Changeup · 97 pitches · catcher's view
3% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters3%4% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters4%1% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters1%1% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters1%12% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters12%7% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters7%5% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters5%7% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters7%8% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters8%1% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters1%26% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters26%7% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters7%18% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters18%
Sinker · 76 pitches · catcher's view
5% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters5%5% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters5%5% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters5%0% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters5% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters5%0% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters9% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters9%5% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters5%0% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters18% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters18%14% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters14%27% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters27%9% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters9%
Sweeper · 22 pitches · catcher's view

Share of his pitches in each spot; darker is more. Last 90 days.

Randal Grichuk · hot and cold vs LHP
xwOBA .209 shrunk (raw .008 on 2 PA) · league .243 · 11 pitches seen.209xwOBA .228 shrunk (raw .026 on 4 PA) · league .296 · 18 pitches seen.228xwOBA .181 shrunk (raw .006 on 5 PA) · league .254 · 14 pitches seen.181xwOBA .295 shrunk (raw .269 on 6 PA) · league .308 · 12 pitches seen.295xwOBA .385 shrunk (raw .385 on 12 PA) · league .385 · 21 pitches seen.385xwOBA .319 shrunk (raw .278 on 6 PA) · league .340 · 18 pitches seen.319xwOBA .283 shrunk (raw .299 on 8 PA) · league .273 · 16 pitches seen.283xwOBA .351 shrunk (raw .352 on 13 PA) · league .350 · 24 pitches seen.351xwOBA .470 shrunk (raw .590 on 17 PA) · league .299 · 31 pitches seen.470xwOBA .302 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .302 · 17 pitches seenxwOBA .373 shrunk (raw .698 on 1 PA) · league .346 · 53 pitches seen.373xwOBA .370 shrunk (raw .467 on 10 PA) · league .289 · 71 pitches seen.370xwOBA .225 shrunk (raw .195 on 13 PA) · league .257 · 47 pitches seen.225
vs LHP · 353 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 0% of 9 swings · league 19%0%Whiff 19% of 16 swings · league 21%19%Whiff 40% of 10 swings · league 23%40%Whiff 0% of 10 swings · league 9%0%Whiff 0% of 20 swings · league 10%0%Whiff 8% of 13 swings · league 11%8%Whiff 0% of 11 swings · league 17%0%Whiff 5% of 20 swings · league 14%5%Whiff 13% of 23 swings · league 16%13%Whiff 0% of 6 swings · league 25%0%Whiff 13% of 8 swings · league 29%13%Whiff 27% of 37 swings · league 48%27%Whiff 38% of 21 swings · league 34%38%
vs LHP · 353 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 82% of 11 pitches · league 63%82%Swings at 89% of 18 pitches · league 71%89%Swings at 71% of 14 pitches · league 64%71%Swings at 83% of 12 pitches · league 67%83%Swings at 95% of 21 pitches · league 76%95%Swings at 72% of 18 pitches · league 72%72%Swings at 69% of 16 pitches · league 59%69%Swings at 83% of 24 pitches · league 68%83%Swings at 74% of 31 pitches · league 66%74%Swings at 35% of 17 pitches · league 30%35%Swings at 15% of 53 pitches · league 26%15%Swings at 52% of 71 pitches · league 31%52%Swings at 45% of 47 pitches · league 41%45%
vs LHP · 353 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Randal Grichuk against each of Kyle Freeland's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball24%91.1+7″ / +14″.397.36210.8%16.0%284Hits these better than most; rarely misses them
Cutter21%86.2-1″ / +5″.372.33818.4%25.7%167Hits these better than most; rarely misses them
Curveball20%81.9-2″ / -6″.335.30130.8%33.2%105Hits these better than most
Sinker18%90.4+13″ / +7″.399.3649.0%14.3%241Hits these better than most; rarely misses them
Changeup12%85.4+11″ / +7″.352.31725.0%28.2%147Hits these better than most
Sweeper4%83.4-9″ / -3″.334.30030.2%30.9%116Hits these better than most
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Randal Grichuk · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G48.429.3751.000.519.5540.0%0.0%10.0%100.6109.725.0%100.0%50.0%
Last 15 G1428.480.500.800.537.4957.1%7.1%8.0%96.7109.712.5%75.0%45.8%
Last 30 G2646.405.435.786.503.43115.2%6.5%13.3%96.3109.716.7%69.4%47.2%
90 days5598.337.367.609.422.34419.4%5.1%15.2%93.8113.610.8%58.1%36.5%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 74 balls in play
Ground 34%Line drive 26%Fly ball 23%Pop-up 18%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G510.300.300.400.305.21110.0%0.0%11.8%84.3108.10.0%22.2%22.2%
Last 15 G1324.304.292.609.369.20920.8%0.0%30.2%87.1111.00.0%31.6%26.3%
Last 30 G2035.235.229.471.297.19525.7%0.0%25.4%86.8111.00.0%32.0%28.0%
90 days3355.259.255.463.306.21223.6%0.0%30.5%88.8111.00.0%39.0%29.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 41 balls in play
Ground 49%Line drive 17%Fly ball 20%Pop-up 15%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G518.353.333.647.400.3645.6%0.0%11.1%92.0109.711.8%58.8%35.3%
Last 15 G1552.396.404.708.460.36313.5%3.8%18.3%92.5111.07.0%55.8%37.2%
Last 30 G3081.329.346.645.416.33119.8%3.7%18.5%92.4111.09.8%54.1%39.3%
90 days61153.308.327.555.380.29720.9%3.3%20.4%92.1113.67.0%51.3%33.9%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 115 balls in play
Ground 39%Line drive 23%Fly ball 22%Pop-up 17%
Randal Grichuk · percentile ranksvs 228 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormHot
Contact rating45Average
Last 100 pitches86trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.375 / .311running 63 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit9/12
2+ total bases4/12
Home run2/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPCutter89.083.017.910Single
Sep 25RHPSinker92.072.376.000Out
Sep 25RHPSinker91.970.060.008Out
Sep 23LHPFastball96.8101.651.029Out
Sep 23RHPSinker100.689.8-48.120Out
Sep 22LHPCurveball83.8105.2291.694Home run
Sep 22LHPFastball92.7109.717.906Double
Sep 22RHPFastball92.099.116.623Double
Sep 22LHPSlider88.5100.21.446Single
Sep 20RHPSplitter85.682.239.008Out
Sep 20LHPCutter88.797.638.265Out
Sep 20LHPFastball92.096.120.360Sac fly
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25311000
Sep 23200000
Sep 22549101
Sep 20300000
Sep 18511000
Sep 17400010
Sep 16524001
Sep 15511001
Sep 14211000
Sep 12414102

Two strikes

Kyle Freeland COL · LHPwith two strikes
Kyle Freeland with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Curveball22%34%36.4%24.4%20.9%
Fastball20%21%6.7%7.4%18.4%
Cutter23%13%12.0%14.3%18.3%
Sweeper7%13%26.1%24.2%21.2%
Changeup12%13%7.1%9.1%18.3%
Sinker17%7%13.3%15.8%17.8%
Randal Grichuk bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Randal Grichuk with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%40.0%41.4%
Whiff%20.4%22.0%
Contact%79.6%78.0%
Chase%44.7%40.7%
wOBA.266.248
Whiff vs his put-away shapes23.3%25.0%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeAPower type
wOBA.339
K%21.0%
BB%4.5%
Whiff%11.1%
Barrel%6.4%
Hard-hit%37.2%
Avg EV92.0

Against left-handers, last 90 days

98 PA
wOBA.407
xwOBA vs this mix.332against pitches like his
RV/1001.57
Hard-hit%41.5%
K%19.9%
BB%3.5%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Kyle FreelandLHP · COL vs CWS
4.5projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 7 · 22.6 batters over 5.3 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 35.2%35%≤34 strikeouts: 19.0%19%45 strikeouts: 16.9%17%56 strikeouts: 12.5%12%67 strikeouts: 8.0%8%78 strikeouts: 4.5%5%89+ strikeouts: 3.9%4%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 46% (red bars) · under: 54%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%17.4%
BB%4.6%
Whiff%10.3%
Velo87.4
BTB Stuff85
Location101
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff%
Cutter23%8388.07.5%
Curveball22%9682.620.4%
Fastball20%8891.24.4%
Sinker17%8090.96.4%
Changeup12%6886.010.2%
Sweeper7%9483.214.1%
Last 3 startsTrending Down
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 226911%6%58%.537
Sep 15505%8%55%.525
Aug 196628%6%22%.461

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Kyle Freeland COL · LHPvsCWS lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

4 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.8%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameCOL @ CWS →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Randal Grichuk: every projection we've made →