MLBengine v14
← COL at CWS, Sep 27, 2026
2:10 PM CT · Rate Field · lineup projected
Hitter · COL · batting 4TJ Rumfield
Bats leftTalent grade BContactNormal
.371wOBA vs LHP.349xwOBA vs his mix3.8expected PA
Starter · CWSAnthony Kay
Throws leftBTB Stuff 106Trending Down
4.5projected K19%K%2.4trips vs this hitter
Anthony Kay's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 31% usage, 95.3 mph, +6.7″ arm side, +15.1″ rise. TJ Rumfield: wOBA .355 vs league .343 (about even).Fastball 31%Sweeper: 18% usage, 82.7 mph, -12.8″ arm side, +0.4″ rise. TJ Rumfield: wOBA .265 vs league .253 (about even).Sweeper 18%Cutter: 14% usage, 91.5 mph, -1.3″ arm side, +6.7″ rise. TJ Rumfield: wOBA .313 vs league .301 (about even).Cutter 14%Sinker: 13% usage, 95.3 mph, +16.2″ arm side, +5.0″ rise. TJ Rumfield: wOBA .337 vs league .324 (about even).Sinker 13%Changeup: 13% usage, 86.1 mph, +14.0″ arm side, +0.6″ rise. TJ Rumfield: wOBA .318 vs league .306 (about even).Changeup 13%Slider: 9% usage, 86.2 mph, -4.3″ arm side, -3.3″ rise. TJ Rumfield: wOBA .273 vs league .261 (about even).Slider 9%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is TJ Rumfield's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

TJ Rumfield's last 40 balls in playHit (15)Out (25)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Single: 85.0 mph at -5°Home run: 101.4 mph at 23°Out: 70.2 mph at 57°Out: 75.5 mph at -28°Out: 84.7 mph at -14°Single: 79.1 mph at 12°Double: 97.2 mph at 18°Out: 92.8 mph at 36°Out: 64.6 mph at 56°Out: 102.5 mph at 17°Out: 63.9 mph at 68°Out: 93.8 mph at 48°Out: 87.2 mph at 34°Out: 97.7 mph at -19°Out: 99.5 mph at 40°Out: 79.1 mph at -7°Out: 101.4 mph at 23°Out: 95.8 mph at -27°Single: 85.8 mph at 9°Out: 61.7 mph at 12°Single: 104.5 mph at -20°Single: 65.2 mph at 38°Out: 89.6 mph at -29°Out: 105.1 mph at 17°Single: 70.2 mph at 22°Single: 92.2 mph at 19°Out: 63.4 mph at 15°Single: 72.9 mph at 29°Out: 89.8 mph at 35°Single: 86.9 mph at 13°Out: 66.2 mph at 20°Single: 96.2 mph at 4°Out: 59.1 mph at 8°Out: 53.9 mph at -49°Single: 94.1 mph at 16°Out: 86.9 mph at 40°Out: 91.1 mph at 36°Single: 91.9 mph at 13°Out: 86.2 mph at 36°Double: 90.1 mph at -33°
25% hit 95+ mph43% in the sweet spot38% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit62.7%62.5%+0.2
2+ total bases32.8%33.4%-0.7
Home run5.9%7.6%-1.7
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+0.5
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
-0.2
2+ total bases
Starter
-0.3
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.2
Park
-0.2
Home run
Starter
-1.6
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
-0.0

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where TJ Rumfield hits
Where they meet

.333 xwOBA for TJ Rumfield in the spots Anthony Kay throws to lefties

The average hitter in those same spots: .304 (+28 points). His best spot against lefties is up-middle, and Anthony Kay puts 3% of his pitches there. Context only; the projection reads pitch type, not location.

Anthony Kay · where he throws to left-handed hitters
4% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 38% per swing4%3% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 43% per swing3%3% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 17% per swing3%8% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 29% per swing8%5% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing5%6% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 18% per swing6%6% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 23% per swing6%7% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 6% per swing7%4% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 8% per swing4%6% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 40% per swing6%11% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 14% per swing11%30% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 50% per swing30%8% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 11% per swing8%
All · 335 pitches · catcher's view
2% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters2%3% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters3%3% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters3%6% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters6%7% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters7%10% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters10%7% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters7%10% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters10%7% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters7%3% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters3%13% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters13%14% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters14%15% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters15%
Sinker · 152 pitches · catcher's view
4% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters4%1% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters1%2% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters2%8% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters8%2% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters2%3% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters3%8% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters8%7% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters7%1% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters1%2% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters2%10% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters10%51% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters51%2% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters2%
Sweeper · 93 pitches · catcher's view
10% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters10%4% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters4%6% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters6%8% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters8%10% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters10%4% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters4%2% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters2%0% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters4% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters4%19% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters19%15% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters15%19% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters19%0% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters
Fastball · 52 pitches · catcher's view
0% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters0% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters0% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters10% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters10%0% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters0% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters0% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters5% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters5%0% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters10% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters10%0% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters71% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters71%5% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters5%
Slider · 21 pitches · catcher's view
0% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters12% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters12%0% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters18% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters18%0% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters0% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters12% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters12%0% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters0% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters12% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters12%0% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters47% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters47%0% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters
Cutter · 17 pitches · catcher's view

Share of his pitches in each spot; darker is more. Last 90 days.

TJ Rumfield · hot and cold vs LHP
xwOBA .224 shrunk (raw .147 on 3 PA) · league .243 · 11 pitches seen.224xwOBA .412 shrunk (raw .689 on 5 PA) · league .296 · 18 pitches seen.412xwOBA .277 shrunk (raw .345 on 4 PA) · league .254 · 14 pitches seen.277xwOBA .264 shrunk (raw .226 on 14 PA) · league .308 · 31 pitches seen.264xwOBA .415 shrunk (raw .447 on 11 PA) · league .385 · 25 pitches seen.415xwOBA .376 shrunk (raw .437 on 7 PA) · league .340 · 19 pitches seen.376xwOBA .214 shrunk (raw .113 on 7 PA) · league .273 · 18 pitches seen.214xwOBA .300 shrunk (raw .201 on 6 PA) · league .350 · 14 pitches seen.300xwOBA .313 shrunk (raw .330 on 10 PA) · league .299 · 18 pitches seen.313xwOBA .360 shrunk (raw .477 on 6 PA) · league .302 · 48 pitches seen.360xwOBA .376 shrunk (raw .421 on 8 PA) · league .346 · 42 pitches seen.376xwOBA .385 shrunk (raw .443 on 20 PA) · league .289 · 115 pitches seen.385xwOBA .196 shrunk (raw .115 on 9 PA) · league .257 · 31 pitches seen.196
vs LHP · 404 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 22% of 9 swings · league 19%22%Whiff 0% of 10 swings · league 21%0%Whiff 0% of 7 swings · league 23%0%Whiff 5% of 20 swings · league 9%5%Whiff 5% of 20 swings · league 10%5%Whiff 7% of 15 swings · league 11%7%Whiff 9% of 11 swings · league 17%9%Whiff 0% of 7 swings · league 14%0%Whiff 0% of 14 swings · league 16%0%Whiff 17% of 6 swings · league 25%17%Whiff 13% of 16 swings · league 29%13%Whiff 46% of 24 swings · league 48%46%Whiff 23% of 13 swings · league 34%23%
vs LHP · 404 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 82% of 11 pitches · league 63%82%Swings at 56% of 18 pitches · league 71%56%Swings at 50% of 14 pitches · league 64%50%Swings at 65% of 31 pitches · league 67%65%Swings at 80% of 25 pitches · league 76%80%Swings at 79% of 19 pitches · league 72%79%Swings at 61% of 18 pitches · league 59%61%Swings at 50% of 14 pitches · league 68%50%Swings at 78% of 18 pitches · league 66%78%Swings at 13% of 48 pitches · league 30%13%Swings at 38% of 42 pitches · league 26%38%Swings at 21% of 115 pitches · league 31%21%Swings at 42% of 31 pitches · league 41%42%
vs LHP · 404 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

TJ Rumfield against each of Anthony Kay's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball31%95.3+7″ / +15″.355.34313.3%21.3%46About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Sweeper18%82.7-13″ / +0″.265.25325.7%33.3%24About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Cutter14%91.5-1″ / +7″.313.30118.0%27.7%32About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Sinker13%95.3+16″ / +5″.337.3248.3%13.6%38About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Changeup13%86.1+14″ / +1″.318.30617.6%23.9%12About league average vs these
Slider9%86.2-4″ / -3″.273.26127.1%34.5%33About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonight
TJ Rumfield · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G38.125.125.125.112.1910.0%0.0%0.0%84.8101.412.5%25.0%25.0%
Last 15 G1021.278.381.333.331.2909.5%9.5%7.1%82.8104.56.2%18.8%25.0%
Last 30 G2245.324.444.541.429.37511.1%15.6%10.6%86.6105.19.4%34.4%28.1%
90 days53110.286.409.440.380.34411.8%16.4%13.4%84.3110.26.4%25.6%28.2%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 78 balls in play
Ground 50%Line drive 18%Fly ball 27%Pop-up 5%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G513.273.385.636.427.2877.7%15.4%7.4%89.3102.510.0%50.0%30.0%
Last 15 G1545.300.378.400.358.32813.3%11.1%10.5%84.6105.13.0%30.3%51.5%
Last 30 G2985.329.447.443.405.35011.8%17.6%12.5%85.2105.15.1%27.1%47.5%
90 days70197.316.406.392.377.34013.2%11.7%15.5%84.2105.12.1%23.1%42.7%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 143 balls in play
Ground 32%Line drive 29%Fly ball 25%Pop-up 15%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G521.211.286.421.307.2514.8%9.5%5.1%87.3102.511.1%38.9%27.8%
Last 15 G1566.293.379.379.349.31612.1%10.6%9.6%84.0105.14.1%26.5%42.9%
Last 30 G30130.327.446.477.414.35911.5%16.9%11.9%85.7105.16.6%29.7%40.7%
90 days74307.305.407.408.378.34212.7%13.4%14.9%84.2110.23.6%24.0%37.6%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 221 balls in play
Ground 38%Line drive 25%Fly ball 26%Pop-up 11%
TJ Rumfield · percentile ranksvs 228 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating86Excellent
Last 100 pitches3trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.376 / .358running 19 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit9/12
2+ total bases6/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPCutter90.385.0-5.108Single
Sep 25RHPSlider86.7101.423.794Home run
Sep 25LHPFastball91.170.257.021Out
Sep 25LHPSlider81.775.5-28.029Out
Sep 24LHPFastball91.884.7-14.068Out
Sep 24LHPFastball89.679.112.383Single
Sep 24RHPChangeup90.697.218.477Double
Sep 24LHPCutter88.692.836.073Out
Sep 23RHPCutter90.664.656.010Out
Sep 23RHPCutter90.7102.517.514Out
Sep 23RHPFastball99.563.968.000Out
Sep 23RHPFastball99.093.848.010Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25425100
Sep 24523010
Sep 23400000
Sep 22400001
Sep 20400010
Sep 19422001
Sep 18511002
Sep 17311011
Sep 15622000
Sep 14522000

Two strikes

Anthony Kay CWS · LHPwith two strikes
Anthony Kay with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Slider8%24%23.5%15.3%22.2%
Fastball19%21%19.6%16.4%18.4%
Sinker18%17%16.7%21.3%17.8%
Changeup14%16%25.0%14.5%18.3%
Sweeper25%13%37.0%27.3%21.2%
Cutter16%9%8.0%6.2%18.3%
TJ Rumfield bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
TJ Rumfield with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Makes contact on his two-strike stuff more than most
With two strikesHimLeague
K%34.6%44.3%
Whiff%19.2%23.6%
Contact%80.8%76.4%
Chase%41.0%38.0%
wOBA.248.223
Whiff vs his put-away shapes19.6%24.1%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeBContact type
wOBA.357
K%14.1%
BB%12.7%
Whiff%7.4%
Barrel%3.2%
Hard-hit%18.7%
Avg EV84.9

Against left-handers, last 90 days

106 PA
wOBA.371
xwOBA vs this mix.349against pitches like his
RV/1001.24
Hard-hit%19.4%
K%12.6%
BB%13.3%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Anthony KayLHP · CWS vs COL
4.5projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 7 · 21.6 batters over 5.1 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 34.7%35%≤34 strikeouts: 19.0%19%45 strikeouts: 16.9%17%56 strikeouts: 12.6%13%67 strikeouts: 8.2%8%78 strikeouts: 4.6%5%89+ strikeouts: 4.0%4%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 46% (red bars) · under: 54%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%18.6%
BB%7.1%
Whiff%11.2%
Velo90.0
BTB Stuff106
Location100
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff%
Sweeper25%10982.811.8%
Fastball19%9996.010.6%
Sinker17%11395.66.9%
Cutter16%12292.68.5%
Changeup14%7886.418.3%
Slider8%12286.612.6%
Last 3 startsTrending Down
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 226520%11%35%.458
Sep 166618%12%6%.241
Sep 116711%2%26%.347

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Anthony Kay CWS · LHPvsCOL lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

3 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.8%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameCOL @ CWS →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.TJ Rumfield: every projection we've made →