MLBengine v14
← COL at CWS, Sep 27, 2026
2:10 PM CT · Rate Field · lineup projected
Hitter · CWS · batting 6Tristan Peters
Bats leftTalent grade DBalancedCold
.345wOBA vs LHP.346xwOBA vs his mix3.6expected PA
Starter · COLKyle Freeland
Throws leftBTB Stuff 85Trending Down
4.5projected K17%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Kyle Freeland's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 24% usage, 91.1 mph, +7.0″ arm side, +14.0″ rise. Tristan Peters: wOBA .349 vs league .353 (about even).Fastball 24%Cutter: 21% usage, 86.2 mph, -1.2″ arm side, +5.4″ rise. Tristan Peters: wOBA .284 vs league .288 (about even).Cutter 21%Curveball: 20% usage, 81.9 mph, -2.4″ arm side, -6.2″ rise. Tristan Peters: wOBA .264 vs league .268 (about even).Curveball 20%Sinker: 18% usage, 90.4 mph, +13.3″ arm side, +6.7″ rise. Tristan Peters: wOBA .330 vs league .334 (about even).Sinker 18%Changeup: 12% usage, 85.4 mph, +11.4″ arm side, +6.7″ rise. Tristan Peters: wOBA .305 vs league .309 (about even).Changeup 12%Sweeper: 4% usage, 83.4 mph, -9.2″ arm side, -3.3″ rise. Tristan Peters: wOBA .260 vs league .264 (about even).Sweeper 4%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Tristan Peters's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Tristan Peters's last 40 balls in playHit (9)Out (31)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 91.4 mph at 65°Out: 77.3 mph at 37°Out: 94.6 mph at 27°Out: 97.1 mph at 35°Out: 101.1 mph at 7°Out: 97.5 mph at -12°Single: 103.6 mph at 1°Out: 80.4 mph at 22°Out: 74.9 mph at -27°Out: 100.4 mph at 17°Out: 55.6 mph at 55°Out: 26.1 mph at -79°Out: 60.9 mph at 58°Out: 76.8 mph at -3°Out: 82.1 mph at 69°Out: 95.8 mph at 33°Out: 92.9 mph at -9°Out: 101.5 mph at -7°Double: 100.8 mph at 12°Out: 86.7 mph at -26°Out: 65.3 mph at 4°Single: 99.5 mph at 18°Out: 79.4 mph at 44°Out: 81.4 mph at -18°Out: 71.2 mph at 52°Single: 102.5 mph at 2°Out: 83.0 mph at -36°Out: 93.7 mph at 57°Out: 74.5 mph at 62°Out: 61.3 mph at -11°Out: 91.2 mph at -3°Double: 105.9 mph at 20°Out: 103.3 mph at 4°Double: 72.6 mph at 31°Single: 98.5 mph at 4°Out: 101.1 mph at 21°Double: 97.0 mph at 21°Out: 95.4 mph at 73°Single: 69.4 mph at 35°Out: 100.0 mph at 40°
43% hit 95+ mph23% in the sweet spot23% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit58.6%55.8%+2.8
2+ total bases35.6%33.7%+1.9
Home run10.3%10.2%+0.1
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+2.3
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.6
Park
-0.2
2+ total bases
Starter
+1.3
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.8
Park
-0.2
Home run
Starter
-0.5
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.5
Park
+0.1

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Tristan Peters hits
Where they meet

.330 xwOBA for Tristan Peters in the spots Kyle Freeland throws to lefties

The average hitter in those same spots: .306 (+25 points). His best spot against lefties is up and right, outside, and Kyle Freeland puts 11% of his pitches there. Context only; the projection reads pitch type, not location.

Kyle Freeland · where he throws to left-handed hitters
3% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 50% per swing3%4% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 22% per swing4%5% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 11% per swing5%9% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 12% per swing9%9% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 8% per swing9%5% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing5%7% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 36% per swing7%6% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 27% per swing6%5% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing5%4% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing4%11% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing11%27% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 55% per swing27%7% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 22% per swing7%
All · 310 pitches · catcher's view
0% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters4% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters4%3% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters3%8% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters8%3% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters3%9% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters9%6% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters6%8% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters8%10% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters10%0% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters16% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters16%13% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters13%23% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters23%
Sinker · 80 pitches · catcher's view
8% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters8%9% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters9%8% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters8%10% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters10%19% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters19%2% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters2%8% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters8%2% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters2%2% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters2%9% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters9%5% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters5%21% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters21%0% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters
Cutter · 67 pitches · catcher's view
7% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters7%5% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters5%8% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters8%12% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters12%13% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters13%5% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters5%7% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters7%8% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters8%2% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters2%5% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters5%10% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters10%17% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters17%2% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters2%
Fastball · 60 pitches · catcher's view
0% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters2% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters2%2% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters2%2% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters2%2% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters2%4% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters4%8% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters8%10% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters10%6% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters6%0% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters12% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters12%50% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters50%2% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters2%
Curveball · 50 pitches · catcher's view
0% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters0% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters5% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters5%14% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters14%5% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters5%2% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters2%7% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters7%2% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters2%2% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters2%5% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters5%14% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters14%43% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters43%0% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters
Sweeper · 42 pitches · catcher's view

Share of his pitches in each spot; darker is more. Last 90 days.

Tristan Peters · hot and cold vs LHP
xwOBA .230 shrunk (raw .080 on 1 PA) · league .243 · 3 pitches seen.230xwOBA .273 shrunk (raw .000 on 1 PA) · league .296 · 4 pitches seen.273xwOBA .281 shrunk (raw .442 on 2 PA) · league .254 · 7 pitches seen.281xwOBA .258 shrunk (raw .138 on 5 PA) · league .308 · 10 pitches seen.258xwOBA .368 shrunk (raw .300 on 3 PA) · league .385 · 9 pitches seen.368xwOBA .333 shrunk (raw .315 on 5 PA) · league .340 · 12 pitches seen.333xwOBA .337 shrunk (raw .492 on 5 PA) · league .273 · 15 pitches seen.337xwOBA .334 shrunk (raw .269 on 3 PA) · league .350 · 10 pitches seen.334xwOBA .310 shrunk (raw .375 on 2 PA) · league .299 · 4 pitches seen.310xwOBA .359 shrunk (raw .698 on 2 PA) · league .302 · 10 pitches seen.359xwOBA .421 shrunk (raw .719 on 3 PA) · league .346 · 23 pitches seen.421xwOBA .346 shrunk (raw .445 on 7 PA) · league .289 · 32 pitches seen.346xwOBA .270 shrunk (raw .351 on 2 PA) · league .257 · 19 pitches seen.270
vs LHP · 158 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 50% of 2 swings · league 19%50%Whiff 100% of 1 swings · league 21%100%Whiff 0% of 5 swings · league 23%0%Whiff 0% of 7 swings · league 9%0%Whiff 75% of 4 swings · league 10%75%Whiff 0% of 7 swings · league 11%0%Whiff 25% of 8 swings · league 17%25%Whiff 0% of 6 swings · league 14%0%Whiff 0% of 3 swings · league 16%0%Whiff 100% of 1 swings · league 25%100%Whiff 50% of 2 swings · league 29%50%Whiff 29% of 7 swings · league 48%29%Whiff 0% of 6 swings · league 34%0%
vs LHP · 158 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 67% of 3 pitches · league 63%67%Swings at 25% of 4 pitches · league 71%25%Swings at 71% of 7 pitches · league 64%71%Swings at 70% of 10 pitches · league 67%70%Swings at 44% of 9 pitches · league 76%44%Swings at 58% of 12 pitches · league 72%58%Swings at 53% of 15 pitches · league 59%53%Swings at 60% of 10 pitches · league 68%60%Swings at 75% of 4 pitches · league 66%75%Swings at 10% of 10 pitches · league 30%10%Swings at 9% of 23 pitches · league 26%9%Swings at 22% of 32 pitches · league 31%22%Swings at 32% of 19 pitches · league 41%32%
vs LHP · 158 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Tristan Peters against each of Kyle Freeland's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball24%91.1+7″ / +14″.349.35320.7%17.5%21About league average vs these
Cutter21%86.2-1″ / +5″.284.28836.4%31.7%11About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Curveball20%81.9-2″ / -6″.264.26834.7%33.1%5Little history vs this shape
Sinker18%90.4+13″ / +7″.330.33414.8%12.4%21About league average vs these
Changeup12%85.4+11″ / +7″.305.30928.5%27.8%9About league average vs these
Sweeper4%83.4-9″ / -3″.260.26434.5%33.0%10About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Tristan Peters · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G33.000.333.000.233.6520.0%33.3%0.0%90.4100.40.0%50.0%100.0%
Last 15 G812.250.500.375.413.43416.7%16.7%10.0%73.2100.40.0%33.3%50.0%
Last 30 G1423.278.435.556.426.40421.7%13.0%22.2%82.8103.37.7%46.2%46.2%
90 days2841.250.415.406.373.37819.5%17.1%18.6%77.7103.34.2%37.5%41.7%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 24 balls in play
Ground 25%Line drive 29%Fly ball 29%Pop-up 17%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G513.083.154.083.123.20723.1%0.0%15.0%88.1103.60.0%44.4%11.1%
Last 15 G1544.128.227.179.198.24322.7%4.5%15.9%87.7105.93.4%37.9%13.8%
Last 30 G2987.247.333.481.352.32718.4%6.9%17.6%88.8106.48.2%47.5%24.6%
90 days73216.250.315.439.327.31818.1%6.0%21.5%87.8106.46.3%39.2%32.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 158 balls in play
Ground 36%Line drive 22%Fly ball 30%Pop-up 11%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G516.071.188.071.144.29118.8%6.2%13.0%88.5103.60.0%45.5%27.3%
Last 15 G1556.149.286.213.244.28421.4%7.1%14.8%85.2105.92.9%37.1%20.0%
Last 30 G30110.253.355.495.367.34319.1%8.2%18.5%87.7106.48.1%47.3%28.4%
90 days74257.250.331.434.335.32718.3%7.8%21.1%86.5106.46.0%39.0%33.5%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 182 balls in play
Ground 35%Line drive 23%Fly ball 30%Pop-up 12%
Tristan Peters · percentile ranksvs 228 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormCold
Contact rating61Average
Last 100 pitches38trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.339 / .328results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit3/12
2+ total bases1/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPSinker93.391.465.005Out
Sep 25RHPCutter90.377.337.099Out
Sep 25RHPCutter88.894.627.280Out
Sep 25RHPFastball95.397.135.317Out
Sep 24RHPSinker91.5101.17.589Out
Sep 24RHPSinker97.197.5-12.169Force out
Sep 24RHPSinker91.3103.61.456Single
Sep 24LHPSlider87.480.422.717Out
Sep 23RHPCurveball80.174.9-27.044Out
Sep 23LHPFastball96.2100.417.542Out
Sep 23RHPSlider86.455.655.008Out
Sep 16LHPSlider87.126.1-79.185Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25400000
Sep 24511001
Sep 23400000
Sep 22100001
Sep 18200011
Sep 16400001
Sep 15400012
Sep 14500011
Sep 13412000
Sep 12511001

Two strikes

Kyle Freeland COL · LHPwith two strikes
Kyle Freeland with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Curveball22%34%36.4%24.4%20.9%
Fastball20%21%6.7%7.4%18.4%
Cutter23%13%12.0%14.3%18.3%
Sweeper7%13%26.1%24.2%21.2%
Changeup12%13%7.1%9.1%18.3%
Sinker17%7%13.3%15.8%17.8%
Tristan Peters bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Tristan Peters with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%44.2%44.3%
Whiff%23.1%23.6%
Contact%76.9%76.4%
Chase%38.6%38.0%
wOBA.209.223
Whiff vs his put-away shapes25.1%25.5%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeDBalanced type
wOBA.301
K%20.1%
BB%7.6%
Whiff%10.7%
Barrel%4.2%
Hard-hit%26.9%
Avg EV86.7

Against left-handers, last 90 days

41 PA
wOBA.345
xwOBA vs this mix.346against pitches like his
RV/1000.96
Hard-hit%24.1%
K%21.0%
BB%7.9%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Kyle FreelandLHP · COL vs CWS
4.5projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 7 · 22.6 batters over 5.3 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 35.2%35%≤34 strikeouts: 19.0%19%45 strikeouts: 16.9%17%56 strikeouts: 12.5%12%67 strikeouts: 8.0%8%78 strikeouts: 4.5%5%89+ strikeouts: 3.9%4%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 46% (red bars) · under: 54%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%17.4%
BB%4.6%
Whiff%10.3%
Velo87.4
BTB Stuff85
Location101
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff%
Cutter23%8388.07.5%
Curveball22%9682.620.4%
Fastball20%8891.24.4%
Sinker17%8090.96.4%
Changeup12%6886.010.2%
Sweeper7%9483.214.1%
Last 3 startsTrending Down
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 226911%6%58%.537
Sep 15505%8%55%.525
Aug 196628%6%22%.461

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Kyle Freeland COL · LHPvsCWS lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

4 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.8%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameCOL @ CWS →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Tristan Peters: every projection we've made →