Hitter · HOU · batting 2Yordan Alvarez
Bats leftTalent grade ——Normal
–wOBA vs RHP–xwOBA vs his mix3.9expected PA
1+ hit+3.2 pts matchup
2+ total bases+4.0 pts matchup
Home run+2.8 pts matchup
60% hit 95+ mph28% in the sweet spot40% fell for hits
| Market | BTB | Without the matchup | Matchup |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1+ hit | 68.6% | 65.4% | +3.2 |
| 2+ total bases | 48.6% | 44.6% | +4.0 |
| Home run | 20.4% | 17.6% | +2.8 |
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
0.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen+0.3
Park+2.9
2+ total bases
Starter
0.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen+0.1
Park+3.9
Home run
Starter
0.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen-0.2
Park+3.1
Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.
Zone battle
where he pitches, where Yordan Alvarez hitsYordan Alvarez · hot and cold vs RHP
better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.
Statcast
opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonightYordan Alvarez · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
| Window | G | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | xwOBA | K% | BB% | Whiff% | Avg EV | Max EV | Barrel% | Hard-hit% | Sweet-spot% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 G | 5 | 15 | .500 | .600 | .833 | .618 | .524 | 6.7% | 20.0% | 7.4% | 98.1 | 110.8 | 9.1% | 72.7% | 27.3% |
| Last 15 G | 15 | 43 | .343 | .465 | .686 | .487 | .417 | 16.3% | 18.6% | 19.2% | 93.4 | 110.8 | 17.9% | 57.1% | 28.6% |
| Last 30 G | 30 | 92 | .309 | .478 | .559 | .461 | .443 | 18.5% | 21.7% | 15.4% | 93.9 | 113.4 | 11.5% | 57.7% | 38.5% |
| 90 days | 71 | 237 | .349 | .485 | .656 | .498 | .463 | 17.3% | 19.0% | 16.6% | 95.3 | 118.5 | 15.1% | 58.9% | 37.0% |
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 146 balls in play
Ground 34%Line drive 24%Fly ball 31%Pop-up 11%
| Window | G | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | xwOBA | K% | BB% | Whiff% | Avg EV | Max EV | Barrel% | Hard-hit% | Sweet-spot% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 G | 4 | 8 | .286 | .375 | .286 | .312 | .414 | 12.5% | 12.5% | 16.7% | 92.4 | 107.5 | 16.7% | 50.0% | 16.7% |
| Last 15 G | 11 | 21 | .263 | .333 | .474 | .352 | .333 | 9.5% | 9.5% | 16.2% | 93.8 | 109.9 | 5.9% | 58.8% | 23.5% |
| Last 30 G | 20 | 37 | .286 | .324 | .486 | .350 | .319 | 13.5% | 5.4% | 14.7% | 93.4 | 109.9 | 6.7% | 53.3% | 26.7% |
| 90 days | 45 | 84 | .233 | .310 | .370 | .311 | .335 | 16.7% | 10.7% | 19.6% | 92.0 | 109.9 | 8.2% | 44.3% | 32.8% |
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 61 balls in play
Ground 44%Line drive 18%Fly ball 31%Pop-up 7%
| Window | G | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | xwOBA | K% | BB% | Whiff% | Avg EV | Max EV | Barrel% | Hard-hit% | Sweet-spot% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 G | 5 | 23 | .421 | .522 | .632 | .507 | .484 | 8.7% | 17.4% | 10.3% | 96.1 | 110.8 | 11.8% | 64.7% | 23.5% |
| Last 15 G | 15 | 64 | .315 | .422 | .611 | .444 | .390 | 14.1% | 15.6% | 18.3% | 93.6 | 110.8 | 13.3% | 57.8% | 26.7% |
| Last 30 G | 30 | 129 | .301 | .434 | .534 | .428 | .406 | 17.1% | 17.1% | 15.2% | 93.7 | 113.4 | 9.8% | 56.1% | 34.1% |
| 90 days | 73 | 321 | .317 | .439 | .575 | .448 | .429 | 17.1% | 16.8% | 17.5% | 94.3 | 118.5 | 13.0% | 54.6% | 35.7% |
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 207 balls in play
Ground 37%Line drive 22%Fly ball 31%Pop-up 10%
xwOBA99.429
Avg EV9994.3
Max EV99118.5
Barrel%9213.0%
Hard-hit%9854.6%
Sweet-spot%5235.7%
K%7317.1%
BB%9816.8%
Whiff%7517.5%
Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.
FormNormal
Contact rating99Elite
Last 100 pitches100steady
wOBA / xwOBA.440 / .431results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit10/12
2+ total bases7/12
Home run3/12
Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.
Recent contact
| Date | Pitcher | Pitch | Velo | EV | LA | xwOBA | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 25 | LHP | Slider | 74.7 | 91.7 | 50 | .003 | Out |
| Sep 25 | RHP | Sinker | 94.9 | 110.8 | 6 | .692 | Single |
| Sep 24 | RHP | Sweeper | 84.5 | 98.3 | 18 | .408 | Out |
| Sep 24 | RHP | Fastball | 99.3 | 84.7 | 65 | .012 | Out |
| Sep 24 | RHP | Cutter | 92.7 | 104.6 | 16 | .641 | Single |
| Sep 23 | RHP | Fastball | 97.1 | 107.3 | 7 | .585 | Double |
| Sep 23 | RHP | Sweeper | 86.3 | 97.6 | 55 | .008 | Out |
| Sep 23 | LHP | Sinker | 96.3 | 100.0 | -17 | .161 | Single |
| Sep 23 | RHP | Sweeper | 90.3 | 77.6 | 33 | .085 | Out |
| Sep 22 | RHP | Fastball | 97.0 | 83.4 | 4 | .221 | Force out |
| Sep 22 | LHP | Changeup | 90.1 | 107.5 | 20 | 1.249 | Out |
| Sep 22 | RHP | Slider | 87.9 | 101.9 | -3 | .346 | Single |
Total bases, last 10 games★ home run
| Date | PA | H | TB | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 25 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Sep 24 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Sep 23 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Sep 22 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Sep 20 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sep 19 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sep 18 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| Sep 17 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Sep 16 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Sep 15 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
The hitter
season-level talent readTalent grade—— type
wOBA–
K%–
BB%–
Whiff%–
Barrel%–
Hard-hit%–
Avg EV–
Against right-handers, last 90 days
0 PAwOBA–
xwOBA vs this mix–against pitches like his
RV/100–
Hard-hit%–
K%–
BB%–
Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.
The starter he faces
Starter not announced.
The rest of the gameHOU @ OAK →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Yordan Alvarez: every projection we've made →