MLBengine v14
← LAA at SEA, Sep 27, 2026
2:10 PM CT · T-Mobile Park · lineup projected
Hitter · SEA · batting 4Josh Naylor
Bats leftTalent grade AvgBalancedHot
.315wOBA vs LHP.312xwOBA vs his mix3.8expected PA
Starter · LAAYusei Kikuchi
Throws leftBTB Stuff 97Trending Down
4.9projected K19%K%2.7trips vs this hitter
Yusei Kikuchi's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 42% usage, 95.2 mph, +9.1″ arm side, +16.3″ rise. Josh Naylor: wOBA .347 vs league .343 (about even).Fastball 42%Slider: 27% usage, 87.5 mph, -2.8″ arm side, +2.8″ rise. Josh Naylor: wOBA .280 vs league .277 (about even).Slider 27%Curveball: 12% usage, 81.9 mph, -5.6″ arm side, -4.8″ rise. Josh Naylor: wOBA .270 vs league .266 (about even).Curveball 12%Changeup: 10% usage, 86.8 mph, +11.8″ arm side, +7.2″ rise. Josh Naylor: wOBA .323 vs league .319 (about even).Changeup 10%Cutter: 7% usage, 91.2 mph, -0.2″ arm side, +9.4″ rise. Josh Naylor: wOBA .322 vs league .318 (about even).Cutter 7%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Josh Naylor's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Josh Naylor's last 40 balls in playHit (7)Out (33)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 101.3 mph at 17°Out: 91.1 mph at 32°Out: 82.6 mph at 75°Out: 96.7 mph at 28°Out: 76.3 mph at 25°Out: 87.4 mph at -17°Single: 79.6 mph at 17°Out: 95.2 mph at 43°Out: 88.0 mph at 71°Out: 97.6 mph at -10°Out: 94.8 mph at 22°Out: 58.3 mph at 57°Out: 102.4 mph at -1°Out: 101.7 mph at 20°Out: 84.3 mph at -11°Out: 79.6 mph at 31°Out: 93.0 mph at -9°Out: 101.3 mph at 23°Out: 86.5 mph at -6°Out: 91.0 mph at -23°Out: 79.6 mph at -1°Out: 60.3 mph at 9°Single: 95.5 mph at -11°Out: 74.2 mph at 46°Out: 105.0 mph at 19°Out: 82.7 mph at -1°Out: 84.0 mph at -2°Single: 98.5 mph at -13°Double: 96.0 mph at 20°Out: 60.6 mph at 17°Out: 93.0 mph at 28°Single: 82.4 mph at 12°Single: 88.5 mph at -16°Out: 97.0 mph at 24°Out: 79.9 mph at 8°Out: 53.3 mph at -53°Out: 100.0 mph at -17°Single: 99.3 mph at 0°Out: 78.1 mph at 32°Out: 90.3 mph at 22°
35% hit 95+ mph48% in the sweet spot18% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit64.2%65.1%-0.9
2+ total bases34.7%35.8%-1.1
Home run6.8%6.7%+0.1
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+0.3
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.0
Park
-1.1
2+ total bases
Starter
+0.2
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
-1.2
Home run
Starter
+0.2
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
-0.0

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Josh Naylor hits
Where they meet

.307 xwOBA for Josh Naylor in the spots Yusei Kikuchi throws to lefties

The average hitter in those same spots: .302 (+5 points). His best spot against lefties is down-left, and Yusei Kikuchi puts 9% of his pitches there. Context only; the projection reads pitch type, not location.

Yusei Kikuchi · where he throws to left-handed hitters
5% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 25% per swing5%2% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing2%5% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 29% per swing5%9% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing9%7% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 13% per swing7%6% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing6%9% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 33% per swing9%4% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 20% per swing4%2% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing2%8% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing8%8% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 25% per swing8%31% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 38% per swing31%3% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing3%
All · 159 pitches · catcher's view
5% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters5%2% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters2%6% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters6%10% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters10%7% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters7%10% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters10%10% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters10%5% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters5%1% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters1%7% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters7%10% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters10%23% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters23%4% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters4%
Fastball · 82 pitches · catcher's view
6% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters6%2% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters2%4% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters4%8% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters8%6% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters6%4% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters4%8% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters8%4% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters4%4% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters4%4% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters4%8% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters8%41% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters41%0% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters
Slider · 49 pitches · catcher's view
5% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters5%0% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters5% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters5%9% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters9%9% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters9%0% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters14% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters14%5% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters5%0% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters14% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters14%5% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters5%32% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters32%5% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters5%
Curveball · 22 pitches · catcher's view

Share of his pitches in each spot; darker is more. Last 90 days.

Josh Naylor · hot and cold vs LHP
xwOBA .264 shrunk (raw .316 on 5 PA) · league .243 · 16 pitches seen.264xwOBA .253 shrunk (raw .196 on 9 PA) · league .296 · 23 pitches seen.253xwOBA .310 shrunk (raw .406 on 7 PA) · league .254 · 15 pitches seen.310xwOBA .263 shrunk (raw .202 on 9 PA) · league .308 · 23 pitches seen.263xwOBA .387 shrunk (raw .388 on 13 PA) · league .385 · 27 pitches seen.387xwOBA .312 shrunk (raw .282 on 11 PA) · league .340 · 24 pitches seen.312xwOBA .383 shrunk (raw .530 on 9 PA) · league .273 · 27 pitches seen.383xwOBA .398 shrunk (raw .442 on 13 PA) · league .350 · 28 pitches seen.398xwOBA .248 shrunk (raw .095 on 4 PA) · league .299 · 15 pitches seen.248xwOBA .294 shrunk (raw .285 on 10 PA) · league .302 · 39 pitches seen.294xwOBA .387 shrunk (raw .436 on 10 PA) · league .346 · 46 pitches seen.387xwOBA .270 shrunk (raw .259 on 21 PA) · league .289 · 112 pitches seen.270xwOBA .229 shrunk (raw .058 on 2 PA) · league .257 · 25 pitches seen.229
vs LHP · 420 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 0% of 9 swings · league 19%0%Whiff 13% of 15 swings · league 21%13%Whiff 0% of 12 swings · league 23%0%Whiff 13% of 15 swings · league 9%13%Whiff 5% of 19 swings · league 10%5%Whiff 6% of 18 swings · league 11%6%Whiff 7% of 15 swings · league 17%7%Whiff 16% of 19 swings · league 14%16%Whiff 0% of 5 swings · league 16%0%Whiff 20% of 15 swings · league 25%20%Whiff 0% of 11 swings · league 29%0%Whiff 42% of 38 swings · league 48%42%Whiff 50% of 10 swings · league 34%50%
vs LHP · 420 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 56% of 16 pitches · league 63%56%Swings at 65% of 23 pitches · league 71%65%Swings at 80% of 15 pitches · league 64%80%Swings at 65% of 23 pitches · league 67%65%Swings at 70% of 27 pitches · league 76%70%Swings at 75% of 24 pitches · league 72%75%Swings at 56% of 27 pitches · league 59%56%Swings at 68% of 28 pitches · league 68%68%Swings at 33% of 15 pitches · league 66%33%Swings at 39% of 39 pitches · league 30%39%Swings at 24% of 46 pitches · league 26%24%Swings at 34% of 112 pitches · league 31%34%Swings at 40% of 25 pitches · league 41%40%
vs LHP · 420 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Josh Naylor against each of Yusei Kikuchi's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball42%95.2+9″ / +16″.347.34313.6%18.9%240About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Slider27%87.5-3″ / +3″.280.27733.8%33.3%179About league average vs these
Curveball12%81.9-6″ / -5″.270.26635.1%32.8%123About league average vs these
Changeup10%86.8+12″ / +7″.323.31920.0%23.1%96About league average vs these
Cutter7%91.2-0″ / +9″.322.31819.7%25.8%182About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Josh Naylor · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G48.125.125.125.112.31412.5%0.0%6.7%88.0101.30.0%28.6%57.1%
Last 15 G1331.194.194.226.222.3036.5%0.0%8.0%84.9105.17.1%39.3%46.4%
Last 30 G2456.236.250.255.248.3238.9%1.8%11.5%82.4105.14.1%24.5%42.9%
90 days57124.288.323.373.320.32411.3%2.4%16.9%84.8107.46.8%28.2%40.8%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 103 balls in play
Ground 52%Line drive 21%Fly ball 19%Pop-up 8%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G513.000.154.000.108.2637.7%15.4%21.9%89.4102.40.0%40.0%40.0%
Last 15 G1333.267.333.300.320.2889.1%9.1%16.1%89.5105.63.7%44.4%40.7%
Last 30 G2670.254.286.299.280.25314.3%4.3%15.1%87.9106.53.6%39.3%39.3%
90 days65184.263.326.311.304.29911.4%8.7%13.9%87.4108.51.4%38.6%37.2%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 145 balls in play
Ground 54%Line drive 23%Fly ball 17%Pop-up 7%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G521.053.143.053.110.2829.5%9.5%17.0%88.8102.40.0%35.3%47.1%
Last 15 G1564.230.266.262.273.2957.8%4.7%12.5%87.2105.65.5%41.8%43.6%
Last 30 G30126.246.270.279.266.28411.9%3.2%13.7%85.3106.53.8%32.4%41.0%
90 days73308.274.325.337.311.30911.4%6.2%15.1%86.3108.53.6%34.3%38.7%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 248 balls in play
Ground 53%Line drive 22%Fly ball 18%Pop-up 7%
Josh Naylor · percentile ranksvs 228 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormHot
Contact rating57Average
Last 100 pitches26trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.303 / .325running 22 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit6/12
2+ total bases4/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25LHPFastball93.9101.317.557Out
Sep 25LHPFastball95.091.132.126Out
Sep 25LHPFastball93.782.675.005Out
Sep 24RHPChangeup82.696.728.399Out
Sep 24LHPSweeper79.076.325.674Out
Sep 24LHPFastball87.087.4-17.070Out
Sep 23LHPSinker94.879.617.916Single
Sep 23RHPSinker93.695.243.034Out
Sep 23RHPFastball96.588.071.000Out
Sep 23LHPFastball93.497.6-10.163Out
Sep 22RHPChangeup83.594.822.243Out
Sep 22RHPFastball94.558.357.005Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25400001
Sep 24400010
Sep 23511010
Sep 22400001
Sep 20400000
Sep 19400000
Sep 18411000
Sep 16523000
Sep 15422001
Sep 14400000

Two strikes

Yusei Kikuchi LAA · LHPwith two strikes
Yusei Kikuchi with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball49%45%6.2%13.6%18.4%
Slider27%27%22.7%12.2%22.2%
Splitter12%16%23.1%20.7%20.7%
Curveball12%12%26.7%18.2%20.9%
Cutter0%1%0.0%0.0%18.3%
Josh Naylor bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Josh Naylor with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%39.9%44.3%
Whiff%23.9%23.6%
Contact%76.1%76.4%
Chase%45.5%38.0%
wOBA.219.223
Whiff vs his put-away shapes23.9%23.9%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeAvgBalanced type
wOBA.324
K%12.3%
BB%6.5%
Whiff%8.2%
Barrel%3.4%
Hard-hit%28.1%
Avg EV86.5

Against left-handers, last 90 days

123 PA
wOBA.315
xwOBA vs this mix.312against pitches like his
RV/100-0.38
Hard-hit%24.3%
K%12.6%
BB%6.4%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Yusei KikuchiLHP · LAA vs SEA
4.9projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 8 · 23.6 batters over 5.5 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 28.0%28%≤34 strikeouts: 17.8%18%45 strikeouts: 17.4%17%56 strikeouts: 14.3%14%67 strikeouts: 10.0%10%78 strikeouts: 6.1%6%89+ strikeouts: 6.4%6%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 54% (red bars) · under: 46%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%19.3%
BB%10.7%
Whiff%9.1%
Velo90.6
BTB Stuff97
Location102
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff%
Fastball49%9895.66.7%
Slider27%9087.910.3%
Splitter12%12286.413.6%
Curveball12%8780.012.5%
Last 3 startsTrending Down
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 22889%5%50%.382
Sep 1610317%7%29%.428
Sep 118825%8%25%.338

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Yusei Kikuchi LAA · LHPvsSEA lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.8%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameLAA @ SEA →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Josh Naylor: every projection we've made →