MLBengine v14
← Sep 27, 2026 slate

Angels at Mariners

2:10 PM CT · T-Mobile Park · 53F · Crosswind 6 mph

The game

LAA runs3.1win 43%
SEA runs3.8win 57%
Total6.9no pre-game book line
No run, 1st inning58%research only

Game totals, win probability and the first inning are research only: in the backtest they don't beat the league-wide rate. Shown as projections, never as plays.

Park and air
Carry
– vs neutral air
Weather
53°F · Crosswind · roof retractable
Park factor
Runs 86 · HR 99 100 = average
Schedule
LAA day-after-night; SEA day-after-night

Air density from observed temperature, dew point and pressure. It shapes batted balls, not the run total directly.

LAA starter
Yusei KikuchiLHP · LAA vs SEA
4.9projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 8 · 23.6 batters over 5.5 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 28.0%28%≤34 strikeouts: 17.8%18%45 strikeouts: 17.4%17%56 strikeouts: 14.3%14%67 strikeouts: 10.0%10%78 strikeouts: 6.1%6%89+ strikeouts: 6.4%6%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 54% (red bars) · under: 46%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%19.3%
BB%10.7%
Whiff%9.1%
Velo90.6
BTB Stuff97
Location102
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff%
Fastball49%9895.66.7%
Slider27%9087.910.3%
Splitter12%12286.413.6%
Curveball12%8780.012.5%
Last 3 startsTrending Down
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 22889%5%50%.382
Sep 1610317%7%29%.428
Sep 118825%8%25%.338

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Yusei Kikuchi LAA · LHPvsSEA lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.8%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

SEA starter
Logan GilbertRHP · SEA vs LAA
7.9projected strikeouts · likely 4 to 12 · 24.6 batters over 5.9 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 4.6%5%≤34 strikeouts: 5.9%6%45 strikeouts: 9.4%9%56 strikeouts: 12.3%12%67 strikeouts: 14.0%14%78 strikeouts: 13.8%14%89+ strikeouts: 40.0%40%9+book 7.5
Over 7.5: 54% (red bars) · under: 46%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%26.2%
BB%7.6%
Whiff%14.4%
Velo90.5
BTB Stuff107
Location103
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff%
Fastball43%11296.99.3%
Slider27%10787.418.9%
Splitter16%10682.621.2%
Changeup6%9186.514.5%
Sweeper6%9382.416.9%
Cutter1%10492.05.3%
Last 3 startsTrending Down
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 228513%12%38%.541
Sep 159626%17%19%.331
Sep 1010041%23%15%.254

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Logan Gilbert SEA · RHPvsLAA lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

7 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.8%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

Pitch-mix battles

each lineup against the starter it faces
Logan Gilbert SEA · RHPvsLAA lineuppitch-mix battle
Logan Gilbert's whiff and run value per 100 pitches next to what this lineup has done against the same pitch type. Edge is positive when the pitch favors the hitters.
Logan Gilbert's pitchesLAA lineup vs that pitch
PitchUsageVeloBTB StuffWhiff%RV/100wOBAWhiff%Hard-hit%Edge
Fastball43%96.91129.3%0.57.32510.9%22.9%-0.21
Slider27%87.410718.9%-0.40.23319.8%19.7%-1.89
Splitter16%82.610621.2%0.69.21721.1%21.3%-1.36
Changeup6%86.59114.5%-2.81.26015.8%15.8%-0.09
Sweeper6%82.49316.9%-3.53.28416.3%14.1%+0.05
Cutter1%92.01045.3%3.07.35411.6%31.4%-0.01
Yusei Kikuchi LAA · LHPvsSEA lineuppitch-mix battle
Yusei Kikuchi's whiff and run value per 100 pitches next to what this lineup has done against the same pitch type. Edge is positive when the pitch favors the hitters.
Yusei Kikuchi's pitchesSEA lineup vs that pitch
PitchUsageVeloBTB StuffWhiff%RV/100wOBAWhiff%Hard-hit%Edge
Fastball49%95.6986.7%1.22.3299.1%30.9%-0.26
Slider27%87.99010.3%-1.87.30514.0%18.4%+0.09
Splitter12%86.412213.6%-4.28.33714.1%15.6%+0.73
Curveball12%80.08712.5%-2.02.32910.1%15.6%+0.44

Bullpens

Angels bullpen#23 of 30
K%22.2%
BB%9.8%
K-BB%12.4%
SwStr%11.3%
wOBA allowed.359
Arms available15 / 15

No one pitched yesterday.

Ranked on a blend of K-BB% (60%) and wOBA allowed (40%) over the bullpen window. Tired arms are context: in our tests bullpen rest didn't improve run totals.

Mariners bullpen#21 of 30
K%22.1%
BB%9.2%
K-BB%13.0%
SwStr%11.0%
wOBA allowed.357
Arms available16 / 16

No one pitched yesterday.

Ranked on a blend of K-BB% (60%) and wOBA allowed (40%) over the bullpen window. Tired arms are context: in our tests bullpen rest didn't improve run totals.

Two strikes

how each starter finishes hitters
Yusei Kikuchi LAA · LHPwith two strikes
Yusei Kikuchi with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball49%45%6.2%13.6%18.4%
Slider27%27%22.7%12.2%22.2%
Splitter12%16%23.1%20.7%20.7%
Curveball12%12%26.7%18.2%20.9%
Cutter0%1%0.0%0.0%18.3%
Logan Gilbert SEA · RHPwith two strikes
Logan Gilbert with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Splitter16%37%37.0%17.6%21.3%
Fastball43%30%14.1%20.6%18.3%
Slider27%24%30.6%24.3%21.4%
Sweeper6%9%40.0%23.1%20.7%
Changeup6%1%33.3%25.0%18.4%

Angels lineup

Projected · facing Logan Gilbert RHP
SpotHitter1+ hit2+ TBHRPAMatchup (1+ hit)wOBA vs handTalent gradeTypeForm
1Zach Neto SS · bats R56.9%36.0%15.3%4.0-2.5.320CBalancedNormal
2Mike Trout DH · bats R54.2%31.1%12.9%3.9-1.9.331CBalancedHot
3Wade Meckler LF · bats L61.1%30.3%6.0%3.8-2.3.353CContactNormal
4Vaughn Grissom 1B · bats R57.0%30.2%9.1%3.8-2.0.309FBalancedNormal
5Moisés Ballesteros 1B · bats L55.7%31.3%11.3%3.7-1.3.248AvgBalancedNormal
6Josh Lowe RF · bats L50.3%29.6%12.2%3.6-1.6.319FBalancedNormal
7Christian Moore 2B · bats R46.8%24.7%9.6%3.5-3.2.248FBalancedNormal
8Travis d'Arnaud C · bats R43.4%23.8%9.2%3.4-1.4.256FBalancedNormal
9Bryce Teodosio CF · bats R44.8%20.6%5.5%3.3-3.1.273FBalancedNormal
Matchup: points of 1+ hit chance against the same hitter facing a league-average starter, bullpen and park. wOBA vs hand: the last 90 days against pitchers of the starter's hand. Talent: season-level grade. Form is context and doesn't move a projection.

Mariners lineup

Projected · facing Yusei Kikuchi LHP
SpotHitter1+ hit2+ TBHRPAMatchup (1+ hit)wOBA vs handTalent gradeTypeForm
1Randy Arozarena DH · bats R62.5%36.9%14.5%4.0-0.6.459ABalancedHot
2Dominic Canzone RF · bats L64.4%37.1%13.4%3.9-1.7.373BBalancedHot
3Julio Rodríguez CF · bats R64.3%37.3%13.8%3.8-0.0.274BPowerNormal
4Josh Naylor 1B · bats L64.2%34.7%6.8%3.8-0.9.315AvgBalancedHot
5Michael Arroyo 2B · bats R57.6%31.8%9.7%3.7-0.9.349AvgBalancedNormal
6Cole Young SS · bats L57.1%30.8%8.7%3.6-1.5.275AvgBalancedHot
7Jhonny Pereda C · bats R53.3%26.6%6.8%3.5-0.6.336AvgBalancedNormal
8Weston Wilson 3B · bats R46.5%24.6%8.9%3.4-0.8.260FBalancedNormal
9Leo Rivas SS · bats S49.5%23.9%5.8%3.3-1.4.276DBalancedNormal
Matchup: points of 1+ hit chance against the same hitter facing a league-average starter, bullpen and park. wOBA vs hand: the last 90 days against pitchers of the starter's hand. Talent: season-level grade. Form is context and doesn't move a projection.