MLBengine v14
← LAA at SEA, Sep 27, 2026
2:10 PM CT · T-Mobile Park · lineup projected
Hitter · SEA · batting 9Leo Rivas
Switch hitterTalent grade DBalancedNormal
.276wOBA vs LHP.297xwOBA vs his mix3.3expected PA
Starter · LAAYusei Kikuchi
Throws leftBTB Stuff 97Trending Down
4.9projected K19%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Yusei Kikuchi's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 42% usage, 95.2 mph, +9.1″ arm side, +16.3″ rise. Leo Rivas: wOBA .325 vs league .348 (pitcher's edge).Fastball 42%Slider: 27% usage, 87.5 mph, -2.8″ arm side, +2.8″ rise. Leo Rivas: wOBA .300 vs league .323 (pitcher's edge).Slider 27%Curveball: 12% usage, 81.9 mph, -5.6″ arm side, -4.8″ rise. Leo Rivas: wOBA .275 vs league .298 (pitcher's edge).Curveball 12%Changeup: 10% usage, 86.8 mph, +11.8″ arm side, +7.2″ rise. Leo Rivas: wOBA .299 vs league .322 (pitcher's edge).Changeup 10%Cutter: 7% usage, 91.2 mph, -0.2″ arm side, +9.4″ rise. Leo Rivas: wOBA .328 vs league .350 (pitcher's edge).Cutter 7%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Leo Rivas's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Leo Rivas's last 17 balls in playHit (5)Out (12)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 60.2 mph at 52°Out: 88.1 mph at 4°Single: 94.4 mph at 10°Out: 86.9 mph at 6°Out: 90.7 mph at 27°Out: 88.1 mph at 45°Out: 99.0 mph at -6°Single: 64.9 mph at 31°Double: 96.7 mph at 9°Single: 89.6 mph at 16°Out: 81.2 mph at 8°Out: 86.1 mph at -28°Out: 75.4 mph at 66°Single: 100.8 mph at 15°Out: 83.3 mph at -27°Out: 97.2 mph at 46°Out: 88.5 mph at 7°
24% hit 95+ mph41% in the sweet spot29% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit49.5%50.8%-1.4
2+ total bases23.9%25.5%-1.6
Home run5.8%6.8%-1.0
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-0.2
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.0
Park
-1.2
2+ total bases
Starter
-0.6
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
0.0
Park
-1.0
Home run
Starter
-0.9
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
-0.0

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Leo Rivas hits
Where they meet

.300 xwOBA for Leo Rivas in the spots Yusei Kikuchi throws to righties

The average hitter in those same spots: .309 (-9 points). His best spot against lefties is up and left, outside, and Yusei Kikuchi puts 4% of his pitches there. Context only; the projection reads pitch type, not location.

Yusei Kikuchi · where he throws to right-handed hitters
2% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing2%5% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 29% per swing5%4% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 13% per swing4%8% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing8%10% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 7% per swing10%6% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 6% per swing6%4% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 25% per swing4%7% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 19% per swing7%3% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 20% per swing3%4% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 33% per swing4%12% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 33% per swing12%26% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 46% per swing26%9% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 31% per swing9%
All · 386 pitches · catcher's view
2% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters2%9% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters9%5% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters5%10% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters10%10% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters10%9% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters9%4% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters4%6% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters6%3% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters3%6% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters6%12% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters12%19% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters19%6% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters6%
Fastball · 186 pitches · catcher's view
2% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters2%0% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters3% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters3%9% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters9%10% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters10%4% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters4%4% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters4%9% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters9%3% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters3%5% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters5%8% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters8%35% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters35%6% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters6%
Slider · 97 pitches · catcher's view
0% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters3% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters3%3% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters3%2% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters2%8% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters8%2% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters2%3% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters3%7% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters7%3% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters3%0% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters18% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters18%32% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters32%18% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters18%
Splitter · 60 pitches · catcher's view
5% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters5%5% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters5%2% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters2%5% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters5%12% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters12%5% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters5%5% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters5%5% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters5%2% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters2%2% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters2%7% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters7%31% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters31%14% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters14%
Curveball · 42 pitches · catcher's view

Share of his pitches in each spot; darker is more. Last 90 days.

Leo Rivas · hot and cold vs LHP
xwOBA .243 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .243 · 2 pitches seenxwOBA .296 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .296 · 2 pitches seenxwOBA .254 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .254 · 1 pitches seenxwOBA .322 shrunk (raw .489 on 1 PA) · league .308 · 4 pitches seen.322xwOBA .311 shrunk (raw .016 on 3 PA) · league .385 · 3 pitches seen.311xwOBA .311 shrunk (raw .137 on 2 PA) · league .340 · 2 pitches seen.311xwOBA .256 shrunk (raw .153 on 2 PA) · league .273 · 4 pitches seen.256xwOBA .350 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .350 · 2 pitches seenxwOBA .299 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .299 · 1 pitches seenxwOBA .335 shrunk (raw .729 on 1 PA) · league .302 · 1 pitches seen.335xwOBA .346 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .346 · 6 pitches seenxwOBA .289 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .289 · 8 pitches seenxwOBA .239 shrunk (raw .028 on 1 PA) · league .257 · 5 pitches seen.239
vs LHP · 41 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 0% of 1 swings · league 19%0%Whiff – of 0 swings · league 21%Whiff 100% of 1 swings · league 23%100%Whiff 0% of 1 swings · league 9%0%Whiff 33% of 3 swings · league 10%33%Whiff 50% of 2 swings · league 11%50%Whiff 33% of 3 swings · league 17%33%Whiff – of 0 swings · league 14%Whiff – of 0 swings · league 16%Whiff – of 0 swings · league 25%Whiff – of 0 swings · league 29%Whiff 0% of 1 swings · league 48%0%Whiff 0% of 3 swings · league 34%0%
vs LHP · 41 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 50% of 2 pitches · league 63%50%Swings at 0% of 2 pitches · league 71%0%Swings at 100% of 1 pitches · league 64%100%Swings at 25% of 4 pitches · league 67%25%Swings at 100% of 3 pitches · league 76%100%Swings at 100% of 2 pitches · league 72%100%Swings at 75% of 4 pitches · league 59%75%Swings at 0% of 2 pitches · league 68%0%Swings at 0% of 1 pitches · league 66%0%Swings at 0% of 1 pitches · league 30%0%Swings at 0% of 6 pitches · league 26%0%Swings at 13% of 8 pitches · league 31%13%Swings at 60% of 5 pitches · league 41%60%
vs LHP · 41 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Leo Rivas against each of Yusei Kikuchi's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball42%95.2+9″ / +16″.325.34818.9%19.3%37About league average vs these
Slider27%87.5-3″ / +3″.300.32330.0%29.0%14About league average vs these
Curveball12%81.9-6″ / -5″.275.29833.5%32.4%12About league average vs these
Changeup10%86.8+12″ / +7″.299.32228.6%28.2%16About league average vs these
Cutter7%91.2-0″ / +9″.328.35019.5%20.3%24About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Leo Rivas · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G35.000.200.000.140.20640.0%0.0%37.5%79.699.00.0%50.0%0.0%
Last 15 G610.000.100.000.070.18730.0%0.0%26.7%81.799.00.0%16.7%16.7%
Last 30 G610.000.100.000.070.18730.0%0.0%26.7%81.799.00.0%16.7%16.7%
90 days610.000.100.000.070.18730.0%0.0%26.7%81.799.00.0%16.7%16.7%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 6 balls in play
Ground 67%Line drive 0%Fly ball 0%Pop-up 33%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G48.500.500.625.494.4800.0%0.0%0.0%87.496.70.0%12.5%62.5%
Last 15 G713.417.462.500.427.4087.7%7.7%0.0%89.2100.80.0%27.3%54.5%
Last 30 G713.417.462.500.427.4087.7%7.7%0.0%89.2100.80.0%27.3%54.5%
90 days713.417.462.500.427.4087.7%7.7%0.0%89.2100.80.0%27.3%54.5%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 11 balls in play
Ground 36%Line drive 27%Fly ball 36%Pop-up 0%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G513.333.385.417.358.37515.4%0.0%16.7%85.999.00.0%20.0%50.0%
Last 15 G923.238.304.286.272.31217.4%4.3%12.9%86.5100.80.0%23.5%41.2%
Last 30 G923.238.304.286.272.31217.4%4.3%12.9%86.5100.80.0%23.5%41.2%
90 days923.238.304.286.272.31217.4%4.3%12.9%86.5100.80.0%23.5%41.2%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 17 balls in play
Ground 47%Line drive 18%Fly ball 24%Pop-up 12%
FormNormal
Contact rating–percentile of xwOBA
Last 100 pitches–
wOBA / xwOBA.274 / .328running 54 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit4/9
2+ total bases1/9
Home run0/9

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25LHPChangeup82.060.252.028Out
Sep 24RHPFastball95.088.14.440Double play
Sep 24RHPFastball95.694.410.628Single
Aug 23RHPSplitter85.286.96.423Out
Aug 23RHPFastball75.790.727.118Out
Aug 23RHPSinker93.988.145.006Out
Aug 22LHPSinker92.399.0-6.274Out
Aug 22RHPChangeup84.964.931.809Single
Aug 22RHPFastball95.196.79.538Double
Aug 21RHPSweeper87.789.616.876Single
Aug 13LHPSweeper81.281.28.306Double play
Aug 13LHPFastball92.786.1-28.045Out
Last 9 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25200001
Sep 24211000
Aug 23400001
Aug 22423000
Aug 21111000
Aug 13200000
Aug 12100001
Aug 6311001
Aug 2400010

Two strikes

Yusei Kikuchi LAA · LHPwith two strikes
Yusei Kikuchi with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball49%45%6.2%13.6%18.4%
Slider27%27%22.7%12.2%22.2%
Splitter12%16%23.1%20.7%20.7%
Curveball12%12%26.7%18.2%20.9%
Cutter0%1%0.0%0.0%18.3%
Leo Rivas bats Swith two strikes, vs this hand
Leo Rivas with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%40.5%41.4%
Whiff%21.8%22.0%
Contact%78.2%78.0%
Chase%35.5%40.7%
wOBA.236.248
Whiff vs his put-away shapes22.4%22.5%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeDBalanced type
wOBA.331
K%21.7%
BB%13.1%
Whiff%9.8%
Barrel%2.8%
Hard-hit%17.8%
Avg EV86.9

Against left-handers, last 90 days

10 PA
wOBA.276
xwOBA vs this mix.297against pitches like his
RV/100-0.76
Hard-hit%22.7%
K%23.2%
BB%6.8%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Yusei KikuchiLHP · LAA vs SEA
4.9projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 8 · 23.6 batters over 5.5 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 28.0%28%≤34 strikeouts: 17.8%18%45 strikeouts: 17.4%17%56 strikeouts: 14.3%14%67 strikeouts: 10.0%10%78 strikeouts: 6.1%6%89+ strikeouts: 6.4%6%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 54% (red bars) · under: 46%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%19.3%
BB%10.7%
Whiff%9.1%
Velo90.6
BTB Stuff97
Location102
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff%
Fastball49%9895.66.7%
Slider27%9087.910.3%
Splitter12%12286.413.6%
Curveball12%8780.012.5%
Last 3 startsTrending Down
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 22889%5%50%.382
Sep 1610317%7%29%.428
Sep 118825%8%25%.338

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Yusei Kikuchi LAA · LHPvsSEA lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.8%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameLAA @ SEA →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Leo Rivas: every projection we've made →