MLBengine v14
← LAA at SEA, Sep 27, 2026
2:10 PM CT · T-Mobile Park · lineup projected
Hitter · SEA · batting 5Michael Arroyo
Bats rightTalent grade AvgBalancedNormal
.349wOBA vs LHP.324xwOBA vs his mix3.7expected PA
Starter · LAAYusei Kikuchi
Throws leftBTB Stuff 97Trending Down
4.9projected K19%K%2.7trips vs this hitter
Yusei Kikuchi's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 42% usage, 95.2 mph, +9.1″ arm side, +16.3″ rise. Michael Arroyo: wOBA .352 vs league .348 (about even).Fastball 42%Slider: 27% usage, 87.5 mph, -2.8″ arm side, +2.8″ rise. Michael Arroyo: wOBA .327 vs league .323 (about even).Slider 27%Curveball: 12% usage, 81.9 mph, -5.6″ arm side, -4.8″ rise. Michael Arroyo: wOBA .302 vs league .298 (about even).Curveball 12%Changeup: 10% usage, 86.8 mph, +11.8″ arm side, +7.2″ rise. Michael Arroyo: wOBA .325 vs league .322 (about even).Changeup 10%Cutter: 7% usage, 91.2 mph, -0.2″ arm side, +9.4″ rise. Michael Arroyo: wOBA .354 vs league .350 (about even).Cutter 7%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Michael Arroyo's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Michael Arroyo's last 24 balls in playHit (9)Out (15)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Single: 86.7 mph at 16°Single: 78.4 mph at -11°Out: 85.5 mph at -33°Out: 86.7 mph at -35°Out: 99.4 mph at 2°Out: 64.5 mph at 36°Out: 92.3 mph at 40°Out: 92.8 mph at 36°Out: 90.2 mph at 33°Out: 95.4 mph at 50°Single: 90.6 mph at 12°Out: 82.2 mph at 11°Single: 86.9 mph at 22°Double: 99.5 mph at 2°Single: 78.2 mph at 21°Out: 89.0 mph at -16°Out: 67.5 mph at 6°Home run: 103.6 mph at 32°Out: 87.2 mph at -7°Out: 100.0 mph at 20°Single: 106.0 mph at 8°Double: 104.0 mph at 19°Out: 79.7 mph at 63°Out: 76.8 mph at 69°
29% hit 95+ mph38% in the sweet spot38% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit57.6%58.5%-0.9
2+ total bases31.8%33.2%-1.4
Home run9.7%10.6%-0.9
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+0.2
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.0
Park
-1.1
2+ total bases
Starter
-0.4
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
-1.1
Home run
Starter
-0.9
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.0
Park
-0.0

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Michael Arroyo hits
Where they meet

.314 xwOBA for Michael Arroyo in the spots Yusei Kikuchi throws to righties

The average hitter in those same spots: .309 (+5 points). His best spot against lefties is middle, and Yusei Kikuchi puts 10% of his pitches there. Context only; the projection reads pitch type, not location.

Yusei Kikuchi · where he throws to right-handed hitters
2% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing2%5% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 29% per swing5%4% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 13% per swing4%8% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing8%10% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 7% per swing10%6% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 6% per swing6%4% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 25% per swing4%7% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 19% per swing7%3% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 20% per swing3%4% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 33% per swing4%12% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 33% per swing12%26% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 46% per swing26%9% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 31% per swing9%
All · 386 pitches · catcher's view
2% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters2%9% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters9%5% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters5%10% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters10%10% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters10%9% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters9%4% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters4%6% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters6%3% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters3%6% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters6%12% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters12%19% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters19%6% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters6%
Fastball · 186 pitches · catcher's view
2% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters2%0% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters3% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters3%9% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters9%10% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters10%4% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters4%4% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters4%9% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters9%3% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters3%5% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters5%8% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters8%35% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters35%6% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters6%
Slider · 97 pitches · catcher's view
0% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters3% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters3%3% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters3%2% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters2%8% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters8%2% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters2%3% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters3%7% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters7%3% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters3%0% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters18% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters18%32% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters32%18% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters18%
Splitter · 60 pitches · catcher's view
5% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters5%5% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters5%2% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters2%5% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters5%12% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters12%5% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters5%5% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters5%5% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters5%2% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters2%2% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters2%7% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters7%31% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters31%14% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters14%
Curveball · 42 pitches · catcher's view

Share of his pitches in each spot; darker is more. Last 90 days.

Michael Arroyo · hot and cold vs LHP
xwOBA .243 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .243 · 3 pitches seenxwOBA .296 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .296 · 0 pitches seenxwOBA .254 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .254 · 0 pitches seenxwOBA .250 shrunk (raw .017 on 3 PA) · league .308 · 3 pitches seen.250xwOBA .436 shrunk (raw .641 on 3 PA) · league .385 · 4 pitches seen.436xwOBA .315 shrunk (raw .164 on 2 PA) · league .340 · 7 pitches seen.315xwOBA .269 shrunk (raw .242 on 2 PA) · league .273 · 4 pitches seen.269xwOBA .350 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .350 · 1 pitches seenxwOBA .299 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .299 · 3 pitches seenxwOBA .332 shrunk (raw .698 on 1 PA) · league .302 · 6 pitches seen.332xwOBA .349 shrunk (raw .360 on 3 PA) · league .346 · 9 pitches seen.349xwOBA .298 shrunk (raw .349 on 2 PA) · league .289 · 13 pitches seen.298xwOBA .283 shrunk (raw .389 on 3 PA) · league .257 · 10 pitches seen.283
vs LHP · 63 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 0% of 2 swings · league 19%0%Whiff – of 0 swings · league 21%Whiff – of 0 swings · league 23%Whiff 0% of 2 swings · league 9%0%Whiff 25% of 4 swings · league 10%25%Whiff 33% of 6 swings · league 11%33%Whiff 0% of 3 swings · league 17%0%Whiff 0% of 1 swings · league 14%0%Whiff 0% of 3 swings · league 16%0%Whiff 0% of 2 swings · league 25%0%Whiff 0% of 2 swings · league 29%0%Whiff 33% of 3 swings · league 48%33%Whiff 0% of 6 swings · league 34%0%
vs LHP · 63 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 67% of 3 pitches · league 63%67%Swings at – of 0 pitches · league 71%Swings at – of 0 pitches · league 64%Swings at 67% of 3 pitches · league 67%67%Swings at 100% of 4 pitches · league 76%100%Swings at 86% of 7 pitches · league 72%86%Swings at 75% of 4 pitches · league 59%75%Swings at 100% of 1 pitches · league 68%100%Swings at 100% of 3 pitches · league 66%100%Swings at 33% of 6 pitches · league 30%33%Swings at 22% of 9 pitches · league 26%22%Swings at 23% of 13 pitches · league 31%23%Swings at 60% of 10 pitches · league 41%60%
vs LHP · 63 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Michael Arroyo against each of Yusei Kikuchi's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball42%95.2+9″ / +16″.352.34817.3%19.3%6Little history vs this shape
Slider27%87.5-3″ / +3″.327.32323.4%29.0%4Little history vs this shape
Curveball12%81.9-6″ / -5″.302.29826.4%32.4%5Little history vs this shape
Changeup10%86.8+12″ / +7″.325.32223.9%28.2%2Little history vs this shape
Cutter7%91.2-0″ / +9″.354.35018.1%20.3%4Little history vs this shape
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Michael Arroyo · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G34.333.500.333.625.5100.0%25.0%14.3%90.599.40.0%33.3%33.3%
Last 15 G1119.333.421.400.413.33821.1%15.8%11.8%89.8100.00.0%33.3%41.7%
Last 30 G1119.333.421.400.413.33821.1%15.8%11.8%89.8100.00.0%33.3%41.7%
90 days1119.333.421.400.413.33821.1%15.8%11.8%89.8100.00.0%33.3%41.7%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 12 balls in play
Ground 42%Line drive 42%Fly ball 8%Pop-up 8%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G57.143.143.143.129.12714.3%0.0%33.3%84.292.80.0%0.0%0.0%
Last 15 G1016.286.375.571.403.35412.5%12.5%24.0%87.1106.08.3%25.0%33.3%
Last 30 G1016.286.375.571.403.35412.5%12.5%24.0%87.1106.08.3%25.0%33.3%
90 days1016.286.375.571.403.35412.5%12.5%24.0%87.1106.08.3%25.0%33.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 12 balls in play
Ground 33%Line drive 17%Fly ball 42%Pop-up 8%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G511.200.273.200.309.2669.1%9.1%26.3%86.399.40.0%11.1%11.1%
Last 15 G1335.310.400.483.409.34617.1%14.3%16.9%88.5106.04.2%29.2%37.5%
Last 30 G1335.310.400.483.409.34617.1%14.3%16.9%88.5106.04.2%29.2%37.5%
90 days1335.310.400.483.409.34617.1%14.3%16.9%88.5106.04.2%29.2%37.5%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 24 balls in play
Ground 38%Line drive 29%Fly ball 25%Pop-up 8%
FormNormal
Contact rating–percentile of xwOBA
Last 100 pitches–
wOBA / xwOBA.410 / .373running 37 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit5/12
2+ total bases4/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25LHPSlider83.886.716.909Single
Sep 25RHPSlider87.078.4-11.073Single
Sep 25LHPSlider85.985.5-33.047Error
Sep 25RHPSlider90.086.7-35.042Out
Sep 24LHPChangeup83.399.42.384Force out
Sep 24RHPSweeper85.064.536.623Out
Sep 23RHPFastball95.092.340.019Out
Sep 22RHPFastball94.992.836.073Out
Sep 20RHPSweeper82.090.233.056Out
Sep 19LHPFastball88.295.450.003Out
Sep 19LHPSinker88.990.612.763Single
Sep 19RHPChangeup82.382.211.492Double play
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25422000
Sep 24200000
Sep 23200010
Sep 22200001
Sep 20100000
Sep 19422000
Sep 18212001
Sep 15100001
Sep 14311001
Sep 13400030

Two strikes

Yusei Kikuchi LAA · LHPwith two strikes
Yusei Kikuchi with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball49%45%6.2%13.6%18.4%
Slider27%27%22.7%12.2%22.2%
Splitter12%16%23.1%20.7%20.7%
Curveball12%12%26.7%18.2%20.9%
Cutter0%1%0.0%0.0%18.3%
Michael Arroyo bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Michael Arroyo with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Little two-strike history vs these shapes
With two strikesHimLeague
K%43.7%41.4%
Whiff%22.4%22.0%
Contact%77.6%78.0%
Chase%39.7%40.7%
wOBA.248.248
Whiff vs his put-away shapes22.9%22.5%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeAvgBalanced type
wOBA.325
K%22.1%
BB%8.9%
Whiff%10.3%
Barrel%4.7%
Hard-hit%25.1%
Avg EV88.5

Against left-handers, last 90 days

19 PA
wOBA.349
xwOBA vs this mix.324against pitches like his
RV/1000.80
Hard-hit%24.1%
K%21.8%
BB%10.5%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Yusei KikuchiLHP · LAA vs SEA
4.9projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 8 · 23.6 batters over 5.5 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 28.0%28%≤34 strikeouts: 17.8%18%45 strikeouts: 17.4%17%56 strikeouts: 14.3%14%67 strikeouts: 10.0%10%78 strikeouts: 6.1%6%89+ strikeouts: 6.4%6%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 54% (red bars) · under: 46%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%19.3%
BB%10.7%
Whiff%9.1%
Velo90.6
BTB Stuff97
Location102
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff%
Fastball49%9895.66.7%
Slider27%9087.910.3%
Splitter12%12286.413.6%
Curveball12%8780.012.5%
Last 3 startsTrending Down
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 22889%5%50%.382
Sep 1610317%7%29%.428
Sep 118825%8%25%.338

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Yusei Kikuchi LAA · LHPvsSEA lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.8%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameLAA @ SEA →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Michael Arroyo: every projection we've made →