MLBengine v14
← LAA at SEA, Sep 27, 2026
2:10 PM CT · T-Mobile Park · lineup projected
Hitter · LAA · batting 2Mike Trout
Bats rightTalent grade CBalancedHot
.331wOBA vs RHP.333xwOBA vs his mix3.9expected PA
Starter · SEALogan Gilbert
Throws rightBTB Stuff 107Trending Down
7.9projected K26%K%2.7trips vs this hitter
Logan Gilbert's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 43% usage, 95.9 mph, +6.6″ arm side, +17.3″ rise. Mike Trout: wOBA .395 vs league .339 (hitter's edge).Fastball 43%Slider: 28% usage, 87.6 mph, -1.4″ arm side, +0.7″ rise. Mike Trout: wOBA .353 vs league .297 (hitter's edge).Slider 28%Splitter: 11% usage, 83.4 mph, +6.0″ arm side, +0.2″ rise. Mike Trout: wOBA .296 vs league .240 (hitter's edge).Splitter 11%Curveball: 6% usage, 80.3 mph, -5.5″ arm side, -10.3″ rise. Mike Trout: wOBA .351 vs league .295 (hitter's edge).Curveball 6%Sweeper: 5% usage, 82.5 mph, -13.9″ arm side, -3.5″ rise. Mike Trout: wOBA .332 vs league .275 (hitter's edge).Sweeper 5%Changeup: 4% usage, 85.4 mph, +15.1″ arm side, +5.2″ rise. Mike Trout: wOBA .366 vs league .311 (hitter's edge).Changeup 4%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Mike Trout's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Mike Trout's last 40 balls in playHit (16)Out (24)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 75.1 mph at 33°Out: 108.6 mph at 12°Out: 99.0 mph at 27°Out: 110.5 mph at 11°Out: 86.3 mph at 37°Home run: 101.3 mph at 29°Single: 104.1 mph at 17°Out: 57.8 mph at -29°Single: 98.2 mph at 7°Double: 103.9 mph at 21°Single: 108.7 mph at 5°Single: 104.1 mph at -3°Single: 68.3 mph at 31°Out: 83.0 mph at 65°Out: 73.1 mph at -18°Out: 99.6 mph at 33°Out: 101.4 mph at -30°Out: 103.7 mph at 22°Out: 78.3 mph at -46°Single: 95.5 mph at 9°Out: 46.3 mph at -40°Out: 83.7 mph at 12°Out: 93.2 mph at 67°Out: 81.0 mph at 0°Out: 106.9 mph at 19°Single: 96.4 mph at 2°Double: 102.9 mph at 18°Out: 82.1 mph at 3°Home run: 104.8 mph at 26°Out: 72.9 mph at 60°Double: 102.6 mph at 16°Out: 84.9 mph at 8°Out: 106.6 mph at -2°Out: 89.2 mph at -6°Double: 106.3 mph at 22°Single: 89.2 mph at 13°Double: 94.1 mph at 20°Out: 91.3 mph at 20°Single: 106.0 mph at -13°Out: 52.3 mph at 50°
53% hit 95+ mph48% in the sweet spot40% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit54.2%56.1%-1.9
2+ total bases31.1%31.8%-0.7
Home run12.9%11.6%+1.3
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-1.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.2
Park
-1.1
2+ total bases
Starter
+0.1
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.2
Park
-1.0
Home run
Starter
+1.3
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
-0.1

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Mike Trout hits
Where they meet

.334 xwOBA for Mike Trout in the spots Logan Gilbert throws to righties

The average hitter in those same spots: .305 (+29 points). His best spot against righties is down-left, and Logan Gilbert puts 6% of his pitches there. Context only; the projection reads pitch type, not location.

Logan Gilbert · where he throws to right-handed hitters
5% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 8% per swing5%3% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 21% per swing3%2% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 22% per swing2%6% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 9% per swing6%6% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 24% per swing6%3% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 8% per swing3%6% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 27% per swing6%7% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 25% per swing7%5% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 33% per swing5%10% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 8% per swing10%4% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 50% per swing4%16% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 50% per swing16%28% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 58% per swing28%
All · 610 pitches · catcher's view
8% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters8%5% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters5%4% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters4%9% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters9%11% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters11%3% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters3%5% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters5%8% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters8%6% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters6%16% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters16%6% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters6%8% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters8%10% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters10%
Fastball · 261 pitches · catcher's view
4% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters4%2% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters2%1% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters1%5% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters5%4% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters4%2% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters2%9% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters9%11% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters11%5% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters5%6% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters6%2% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters2%21% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters21%30% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters30%
Slider · 173 pitches · catcher's view
0% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters0% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters0% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters0% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters1% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters1%0% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters7% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters7%2% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters2%2% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters2%5% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters5%0% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters30% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters30%53% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters53%
Splitter · 89 pitches · catcher's view
0% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters0% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters1% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters1%1% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters1%3% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters3%4% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters4%4% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters4%4% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters4%4% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters4%3% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters3%1% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters1%16% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters16%56% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters56%
Sweeper · 69 pitches · catcher's view

Share of his pitches in each spot; darker is more. Last 90 days.

Mike Trout · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .255 shrunk (raw .226 on 8 PA) · league .274 · 40 pitches seen.255xwOBA .235 shrunk (raw .149 on 10 PA) · league .307 · 45 pitches seen.235xwOBA .185 shrunk (raw .080 on 9 PA) · league .263 · 37 pitches seen.185xwOBA .298 shrunk (raw .268 on 18 PA) · league .342 · 42 pitches seen.298xwOBA .378 shrunk (raw .372 on 15 PA) · league .386 · 49 pitches seen.378xwOBA .333 shrunk (raw .340 on 22 PA) · league .321 · 64 pitches seen.333xwOBA .417 shrunk (raw .580 on 8 PA) · league .308 · 22 pitches seen.417xwOBA .417 shrunk (raw .504 on 9 PA) · league .351 · 28 pitches seen.417xwOBA .267 shrunk (raw .244 on 13 PA) · league .292 · 47 pitches seen.267xwOBA .455 shrunk (raw .505 on 19 PA) · league .377 · 108 pitches seen.455xwOBA .306 shrunk (raw .329 on 17 PA) · league .274 · 130 pitches seen.306xwOBA .307 shrunk (raw .355 on 11 PA) · league .263 · 63 pitches seen.307xwOBA .312 shrunk (raw .323 on 40 PA) · league .274 · 218 pitches seen.312
vs RHP · 893 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 33% of 18 swings · league 22%33%Whiff 37% of 30 swings · league 20%37%Whiff 25% of 24 swings · league 19%25%Whiff 3% of 29 swings · league 10%3%Whiff 14% of 37 swings · league 9%14%Whiff 16% of 44 swings · league 11%16%Whiff 8% of 13 swings · league 14%8%Whiff 13% of 16 swings · league 13%13%Whiff 8% of 24 swings · league 17%8%Whiff 46% of 13 swings · league 28%46%Whiff 64% of 14 swings · league 24%64%Whiff 12% of 25 swings · league 32%12%Whiff 52% of 79 swings · league 49%52%
vs RHP · 893 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 45% of 40 pitches · league 62%45%Swings at 67% of 45 pitches · league 72%67%Swings at 65% of 37 pitches · league 66%65%Swings at 69% of 42 pitches · league 70%69%Swings at 76% of 49 pitches · league 76%76%Swings at 69% of 64 pitches · league 70%69%Swings at 59% of 22 pitches · league 65%59%Swings at 57% of 28 pitches · league 68%57%Swings at 51% of 47 pitches · league 60%51%Swings at 12% of 108 pitches · league 24%12%Swings at 11% of 130 pitches · league 34%11%Swings at 40% of 63 pitches · league 40%40%Swings at 36% of 218 pitches · league 32%36%
vs RHP · 893 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Mike Trout against each of Logan Gilbert's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball43%95.9+7″ / +17″.395.33923.0%20.0%357Hits these better than most
Slider28%87.6-1″ / +1″.353.29736.8%33.8%90Hits these better than most
Splitter11%83.4+6″ / +0″.296.24046.1%43.4%14Hits these better than most
Curveball6%80.3-6″ / -10″.351.29532.3%29.6%53Hits these better than most
Sweeper5%82.5-14″ / -4″.332.27537.1%34.6%98Hits these better than most
Changeup4%85.4+15″ / +5″.366.31135.3%32.8%90Hits these better than most
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Mike Trout · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G518.167.444.250.353.48427.8%27.8%32.3%98.2110.528.6%71.4%71.4%
Last 15 G1548.226.500.387.417.48522.9%31.2%33.8%90.9110.520.0%50.0%60.0%
Last 30 G2998.256.408.372.359.38327.6%16.3%30.7%90.5110.813.7%43.1%52.9%
90 days63200.232.365.329.331.33529.5%14.5%27.3%88.4110.88.5%38.7%41.5%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 106 balls in play
Ground 33%Line drive 32%Fly ball 23%Pop-up 12%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G24.750.7501.500.950.5960.0%0.0%37.5%91.5108.725.0%75.0%25.0%
Last 15 G819.278.316.500.353.35026.3%5.3%26.9%92.9108.715.4%69.2%23.1%
Last 30 G1536.276.371.448.371.40422.2%13.9%26.8%92.6108.713.6%59.1%31.8%
90 days3994.300.387.462.379.39822.3%11.7%20.9%89.5110.611.7%45.0%36.7%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 60 balls in play
Ground 45%Line drive 25%Fly ball 23%Pop-up 7%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G522.312.500.562.461.50522.7%22.7%33.3%95.8110.527.3%72.7%54.5%
Last 15 G1567.245.448.429.399.44823.9%23.9%32.0%91.7110.518.2%57.6%45.5%
Last 30 G30134.262.398.393.362.38926.1%15.7%29.7%91.1110.813.7%47.9%46.6%
90 days67294.254.372.373.346.35527.2%13.6%25.3%88.8110.89.6%41.0%39.8%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 166 balls in play
Ground 37%Line drive 30%Fly ball 23%Pop-up 10%
Mike Trout · percentile ranksvs 228 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormHot
Contact rating85Excellent
Last 100 pitches100trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.347 / .357results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit6/12
2+ total bases4/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPSweeper84.175.133.190Out
Sep 25RHPFastball97.1108.612.921Out
Sep 25RHPFastball96.499.027.860Out
Sep 24RHPFastball95.8110.511.983Out
Sep 24RHPSinker88.686.337.023Out
Sep 23LHPChangeup77.9101.3291.134Home run
Sep 23RHPFastball96.8104.117.563Single
Sep 23LHPChangeup79.757.8-29.070Out
Sep 22LHPFastball92.498.27.547Single
Sep 22RHPSweeper85.3103.921.954Double
Sep 22LHPFastball92.0108.75.634Single
Sep 19RHPSlider88.0104.1-3.375Single
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25500011
Sep 24500021
Sep 23425101
Sep 22534011
Sep 20300011
Sep 19622020
Sep 18400002
Sep 17511011
Sep 16500021
Sep 15400011

Two strikes

Logan Gilbert SEA · RHPwith two strikes
Logan Gilbert with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Splitter16%37%37.0%17.6%21.3%
Fastball43%30%14.1%20.6%18.3%
Slider27%24%30.6%24.3%21.4%
Sweeper6%9%40.0%23.1%20.7%
Changeup6%1%33.3%25.0%18.4%
Mike Trout bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Mike Trout with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%47.9%43.3%
Whiff%26.0%23.5%
Contact%74.0%76.5%
Chase%29.0%39.4%
wOBA.275.235
Whiff vs his put-away shapes33.8%30.9%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeCBalanced type
wOBA.347
K%27.4%
BB%13.5%
Whiff%10.3%
Barrel%5.9%
Hard-hit%23.5%
Avg EV89.0

Against right-handers, last 90 days

200 PA
wOBA.331
xwOBA vs this mix.333against pitches like his
RV/1000.24
Hard-hit%21.3%
K%28.6%
BB%13.3%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Logan GilbertRHP · SEA vs LAA
7.9projected strikeouts · likely 4 to 12 · 24.6 batters over 5.9 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 4.6%5%≤34 strikeouts: 5.9%6%45 strikeouts: 9.4%9%56 strikeouts: 12.3%12%67 strikeouts: 14.0%14%78 strikeouts: 13.8%14%89+ strikeouts: 40.0%40%9+book 7.5
Over 7.5: 54% (red bars) · under: 46%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%26.2%
BB%7.6%
Whiff%14.4%
Velo90.5
BTB Stuff107
Location103
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff%
Fastball43%11296.99.3%
Slider27%10787.418.9%
Splitter16%10682.621.2%
Changeup6%9186.514.5%
Sweeper6%9382.416.9%
Cutter1%10492.05.3%
Last 3 startsTrending Down
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 228513%12%38%.541
Sep 159626%17%19%.331
Sep 1010041%23%15%.254

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Logan Gilbert SEA · RHPvsLAA lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

7 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.8%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameLAA @ SEA →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Mike Trout: every projection we've made →