MLBengine v14
← LAA at SEA, Sep 27, 2026
2:10 PM CT · T-Mobile Park · lineup projected
Hitter · SEA · batting 1Randy Arozarena
Bats rightTalent grade ABalancedHot
.459wOBA vs LHP.354xwOBA vs his mix4.0expected PA
Starter · LAAYusei Kikuchi
Throws leftBTB Stuff 97Trending Down
4.9projected K19%K%2.7trips vs this hitter
Yusei Kikuchi's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 42% usage, 95.2 mph, +9.1″ arm side, +16.3″ rise. Randy Arozarena: wOBA .384 vs league .348 (hitter's edge).Fastball 42%Slider: 27% usage, 87.5 mph, -2.8″ arm side, +2.8″ rise. Randy Arozarena: wOBA .358 vs league .323 (hitter's edge).Slider 27%Curveball: 12% usage, 81.9 mph, -5.6″ arm side, -4.8″ rise. Randy Arozarena: wOBA .333 vs league .298 (hitter's edge).Curveball 12%Changeup: 10% usage, 86.8 mph, +11.8″ arm side, +7.2″ rise. Randy Arozarena: wOBA .356 vs league .322 (hitter's edge).Changeup 10%Cutter: 7% usage, 91.2 mph, -0.2″ arm side, +9.4″ rise. Randy Arozarena: wOBA .385 vs league .350 (hitter's edge).Cutter 7%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Randy Arozarena's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Randy Arozarena's last 40 balls in playHit (18)Out (22)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Triple: 99.4 mph at 15°Single: 96.7 mph at -13°Out: 92.7 mph at 23°Out: 102.8 mph at 0°Double: 73.2 mph at 37°Out: 53.8 mph at 19°Out: 86.3 mph at 32°Single: 101.1 mph at 9°Out: 100.4 mph at 24°Out: 83.0 mph at 34°Out: 100.6 mph at -4°Home run: 106.8 mph at 35°Out: 95.3 mph at -16°Out: 84.6 mph at 3°Single: 80.4 mph at 11°Out: 96.1 mph at 36°Double: 100.3 mph at 17°Single: 105.4 mph at 1°Out: 79.0 mph at 79°Single: 103.9 mph at -1°Single: 103.8 mph at 3°Out: 83.5 mph at 2°Out: 93.0 mph at 37°Out: 82.4 mph at 1°Single: 96.3 mph at -1°Double: 102.8 mph at 20°Out: 97.8 mph at -8°Home run: 101.7 mph at 31°Home run: 101.6 mph at 29°Out: 103.2 mph at -8°Out: 110.0 mph at -26°Single: 103.4 mph at -13°Out: 91.3 mph at 53°Home run: 102.8 mph at 38°Out: 103.2 mph at -6°Single: 91.2 mph at 3°Out: 88.2 mph at -2°Single: 70.6 mph at -16°Out: 103.9 mph at 7°Out: 85.8 mph at -21°
60% hit 95+ mph28% in the sweet spot45% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit62.5%63.1%-0.6
2+ total bases36.9%37.8%-0.8
Home run14.5%14.7%-0.2
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+0.5
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.0
Park
-1.1
2+ total bases
Starter
+0.2
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
-1.1
Home run
Starter
-0.2
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
-0.1

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Randy Arozarena hits
Where they meet

.333 xwOBA for Randy Arozarena in the spots Yusei Kikuchi throws to righties

The average hitter in those same spots: .309 (+24 points). His best spot against lefties is up and left, outside, and Yusei Kikuchi puts 4% of his pitches there. Context only; the projection reads pitch type, not location.

Yusei Kikuchi · where he throws to right-handed hitters
2% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing2%5% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 29% per swing5%4% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 13% per swing4%8% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing8%10% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 7% per swing10%6% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 6% per swing6%4% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 25% per swing4%7% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 19% per swing7%3% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 20% per swing3%4% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 33% per swing4%12% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 33% per swing12%26% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 46% per swing26%9% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 31% per swing9%
All · 386 pitches · catcher's view
2% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters2%9% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters9%5% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters5%10% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters10%10% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters10%9% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters9%4% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters4%6% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters6%3% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters3%6% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters6%12% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters12%19% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters19%6% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters6%
Fastball · 186 pitches · catcher's view
2% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters2%0% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters3% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters3%9% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters9%10% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters10%4% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters4%4% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters4%9% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters9%3% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters3%5% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters5%8% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters8%35% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters35%6% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters6%
Slider · 97 pitches · catcher's view
0% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters3% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters3%3% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters3%2% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters2%8% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters8%2% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters2%3% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters3%7% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters7%3% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters3%0% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters18% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters18%32% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters32%18% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters18%
Splitter · 60 pitches · catcher's view
5% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters5%5% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters5%2% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters2%5% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters5%12% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters12%5% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters5%5% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters5%5% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters5%2% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters2%2% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters2%7% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters7%31% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters31%14% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters14%
Curveball · 42 pitches · catcher's view

Share of his pitches in each spot; darker is more. Last 90 days.

Randy Arozarena · hot and cold vs LHP
xwOBA .254 shrunk (raw .281 on 5 PA) · league .243 · 14 pitches seen.254xwOBA .337 shrunk (raw .435 on 5 PA) · league .296 · 20 pitches seen.337xwOBA .236 shrunk (raw .206 on 7 PA) · league .254 · 22 pitches seen.236xwOBA .286 shrunk (raw .247 on 7 PA) · league .308 · 21 pitches seen.286xwOBA .273 shrunk (raw .170 on 13 PA) · league .385 · 29 pitches seen.273xwOBA .390 shrunk (raw .476 on 7 PA) · league .340 · 26 pitches seen.390xwOBA .273 shrunk (raw .274 on 6 PA) · league .273 · 37 pitches seen.273xwOBA .300 shrunk (raw .225 on 8 PA) · league .350 · 23 pitches seen.300xwOBA .391 shrunk (raw .492 on 11 PA) · league .299 · 24 pitches seen.391xwOBA .403 shrunk (raw .706 on 4 PA) · league .302 · 27 pitches seen.403xwOBA .433 shrunk (raw .549 on 9 PA) · league .346 · 69 pitches seen.433xwOBA .339 shrunk (raw .389 on 12 PA) · league .289 · 73 pitches seen.339xwOBA .315 shrunk (raw .356 on 17 PA) · league .257 · 61 pitches seen.315
vs LHP · 446 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 29% of 7 swings · league 19%29%Whiff 40% of 10 swings · league 21%40%Whiff 15% of 13 swings · league 23%15%Whiff 8% of 13 swings · league 9%8%Whiff 4% of 23 swings · league 10%4%Whiff 30% of 20 swings · league 11%30%Whiff 20% of 20 swings · league 17%20%Whiff 0% of 16 swings · league 14%0%Whiff 12% of 17 swings · league 16%12%Whiff 0% of 4 swings · league 25%0%Whiff 29% of 14 swings · league 29%29%Whiff 33% of 21 swings · league 48%33%Whiff 24% of 25 swings · league 34%24%
vs LHP · 446 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 50% of 14 pitches · league 63%50%Swings at 50% of 20 pitches · league 71%50%Swings at 59% of 22 pitches · league 64%59%Swings at 62% of 21 pitches · league 67%62%Swings at 79% of 29 pitches · league 76%79%Swings at 77% of 26 pitches · league 72%77%Swings at 54% of 37 pitches · league 59%54%Swings at 70% of 23 pitches · league 68%70%Swings at 71% of 24 pitches · league 66%71%Swings at 15% of 27 pitches · league 30%15%Swings at 20% of 69 pitches · league 26%20%Swings at 29% of 73 pitches · league 31%29%Swings at 41% of 61 pitches · league 41%41%
vs LHP · 446 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Randy Arozarena against each of Yusei Kikuchi's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball42%95.2+9″ / +16″.384.34823.8%19.3%279Hits these better than most; misses them more than most
Slider27%87.5-3″ / +3″.358.32327.5%29.0%122Hits these better than most
Curveball12%81.9-6″ / -5″.333.29830.7%32.4%103Hits these better than most
Changeup10%86.8+12″ / +7″.356.32228.5%28.2%162Hits these better than most
Cutter7%91.2-0″ / +9″.385.35025.4%20.3%177Hits these better than most; misses them more than most
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Randy Arozarena · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G47.167.286.167.229.21957.1%14.3%41.2%96.9101.10.0%50.0%100.0%
Last 15 G1330.400.500.960.618.49223.3%13.3%20.6%93.3106.816.7%55.6%33.3%
Last 30 G2252.381.481.881.561.43119.2%15.4%20.2%91.2108.215.2%45.5%21.2%
90 days50113.340.425.670.481.37915.0%11.5%19.1%88.8109.18.6%40.7%25.9%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 81 balls in play
Ground 53%Line drive 10%Fly ball 26%Pop-up 11%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G515.300.533.600.483.4366.7%26.7%12.1%88.5102.811.1%55.6%44.4%
Last 15 G1437.290.405.419.370.32413.5%10.8%16.7%92.9110.03.8%57.7%23.1%
Last 30 G2983.250.386.368.345.32524.1%13.3%24.5%91.4110.04.2%45.8%35.4%
90 days73226.238.363.434.361.34823.0%11.1%25.4%91.1111.28.0%45.3%39.4%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 137 balls in play
Ground 46%Line drive 24%Fly ball 23%Pop-up 7%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G522.250.455.438.402.36722.7%22.7%22.0%90.0102.89.1%54.5%54.5%
Last 15 G1567.339.448.661.477.39617.9%11.9%18.4%93.1110.09.1%56.8%27.3%
Last 30 G30135.300.422.564.426.36522.2%14.1%22.8%91.3110.08.6%45.7%29.6%
90 days76339.273.383.514.400.35820.4%11.2%23.4%90.2111.28.3%43.6%34.4%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 218 balls in play
Ground 49%Line drive 19%Fly ball 24%Pop-up 8%
Randy Arozarena · percentile ranksvs 228 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormHot
Contact rating93Top tier
Last 100 pitches93steady
wOBA / xwOBA.403 / .372running 31 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit10/12
2+ total bases7/12
Home run3/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPSlider83.899.415.701Triple
Sep 25RHPSlider87.496.7-13.212Single
Sep 25LHPFastball93.692.723.220Out
Sep 24RHPFastball95.4102.80.410Out
Sep 24RHPSlider82.673.237.330Double
Sep 24RHPFastball97.053.819.136Out
Sep 23RHPFastball97.186.332.054Out
Sep 23LHPFastball93.4101.19.614Single
Sep 23RHPSinker93.7100.424.795Out
Sep 20RHPChangeup85.083.034.036Out
Sep 20RHPSlider83.7100.6-4.338Out
Sep 19LHPChangeup83.9106.8352.000Home run
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25524002
Sep 24412001
Sep 23511020
Sep 22400021
Sep 20400011
Sep 19414101
Sep 18534000
Sep 16511021
Sep 15411001
Sep 14423000

Two strikes

Yusei Kikuchi LAA · LHPwith two strikes
Yusei Kikuchi with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball49%45%6.2%13.6%18.4%
Slider27%27%22.7%12.2%22.2%
Splitter12%16%23.1%20.7%20.7%
Curveball12%12%26.7%18.2%20.9%
Cutter0%1%0.0%0.0%18.3%
Randy Arozarena bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Randy Arozarena with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%41.8%41.4%
Whiff%22.4%22.0%
Contact%77.6%78.0%
Chase%40.2%40.7%
wOBA.277.248
Whiff vs his put-away shapes23.1%22.5%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeABalanced type
wOBA.384
K%21.1%
BB%11.0%
Whiff%10.1%
Barrel%5.5%
Hard-hit%28.0%
Avg EV90.3

Against left-handers, last 90 days

114 PA
wOBA.459
xwOBA vs this mix.354against pitches like his
RV/1002.97
Hard-hit%28.2%
K%16.5%
BB%11.2%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Yusei KikuchiLHP · LAA vs SEA
4.9projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 8 · 23.6 batters over 5.5 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 28.0%28%≤34 strikeouts: 17.8%18%45 strikeouts: 17.4%17%56 strikeouts: 14.3%14%67 strikeouts: 10.0%10%78 strikeouts: 6.1%6%89+ strikeouts: 6.4%6%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 54% (red bars) · under: 46%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%19.3%
BB%10.7%
Whiff%9.1%
Velo90.6
BTB Stuff97
Location102
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff%
Fastball49%9895.66.7%
Slider27%9087.910.3%
Splitter12%12286.413.6%
Curveball12%8780.012.5%
Last 3 startsTrending Down
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 22889%5%50%.382
Sep 1610317%7%29%.428
Sep 118825%8%25%.338

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Yusei Kikuchi LAA · LHPvsSEA lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.8%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameLAA @ SEA →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Randy Arozarena: every projection we've made →