MLBengine v14
← LAA at SEA, Sep 27, 2026
2:10 PM CT · T-Mobile Park · lineup projected
Hitter · LAA · batting 8Travis d'Arnaud
Bats rightTalent grade FBalancedNormal
.256wOBA vs RHP.267xwOBA vs his mix3.4expected PA
Starter · SEALogan Gilbert
Throws rightBTB Stuff 107Trending Down
7.9projected K26%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Logan Gilbert's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 43% usage, 95.9 mph, +6.6″ arm side, +17.3″ rise. Travis d'Arnaud: wOBA .320 vs league .339 (pitcher's edge).Fastball 43%Slider: 28% usage, 87.6 mph, -1.4″ arm side, +0.7″ rise. Travis d'Arnaud: wOBA .280 vs league .297 (pitcher's edge).Slider 28%Splitter: 11% usage, 83.4 mph, +6.0″ arm side, +0.2″ rise. Travis d'Arnaud: wOBA .223 vs league .240 (pitcher's edge).Splitter 11%Curveball: 6% usage, 80.3 mph, -5.5″ arm side, -10.3″ rise. Travis d'Arnaud: wOBA .277 vs league .295 (pitcher's edge).Curveball 6%Sweeper: 5% usage, 82.5 mph, -13.9″ arm side, -3.5″ rise. Travis d'Arnaud: wOBA .258 vs league .275 (pitcher's edge).Sweeper 5%Changeup: 4% usage, 85.4 mph, +15.1″ arm side, +5.2″ rise. Travis d'Arnaud: wOBA .294 vs league .311 (pitcher's edge).Changeup 4%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Travis d'Arnaud's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit43.4%44.8%-1.4
2+ total bases23.8%24.5%-0.8
Home run9.2%8.8%+0.4
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-0.6
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.3
Park
-1.1
2+ total bases
Starter
-0.1
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.2
Park
-0.9
Home run
Starter
+0.3
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
-0.0

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Travis d'Arnaud hits
Logan Gilbert · where he throws to right-handed hitters
5% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 8% per swing5%3% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 21% per swing3%2% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 22% per swing2%6% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 9% per swing6%6% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 24% per swing6%3% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 8% per swing3%6% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 27% per swing6%7% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 25% per swing7%5% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 33% per swing5%10% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 8% per swing10%4% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 50% per swing4%16% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 50% per swing16%28% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 58% per swing28%
All · 610 pitches · catcher's view
8% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters8%5% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters5%4% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters4%9% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters9%11% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters11%3% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters3%5% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters5%8% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters8%6% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters6%16% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters16%6% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters6%8% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters8%10% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters10%
Fastball · 261 pitches · catcher's view
4% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters4%2% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters2%1% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters1%5% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters5%4% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters4%2% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters2%9% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters9%11% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters11%5% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters5%6% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters6%2% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters2%21% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters21%30% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters30%
Slider · 173 pitches · catcher's view
0% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters0% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters0% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters0% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters1% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters1%0% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters7% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters7%2% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters2%2% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters2%5% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters5%0% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters30% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters30%53% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters53%
Splitter · 89 pitches · catcher's view
0% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters0% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters1% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters1%1% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters1%3% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters3%4% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters4%4% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters4%4% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters4%4% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters4%3% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters3%1% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters1%16% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters16%56% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters56%
Sweeper · 69 pitches · catcher's view

Share of his pitches in each spot; darker is more. Last 90 days.

Pitch by pitch

Travis d'Arnaud against each of Logan Gilbert's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball43%95.9+7″ / +17″.320.33924.7%20.0%196About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Slider28%87.6-1″ / +1″.280.29735.8%33.8%110About league average vs these
Splitter11%83.4+6″ / +0″.223.24045.2%43.4%10About league average vs these
Curveball6%80.3-6″ / -10″.277.29530.5%29.6%78About league average vs these
Sweeper5%82.5-14″ / -4″.258.27535.8%34.6%84About league average vs these
Changeup4%85.4+15″ / +5″.294.31135.1%32.8%57About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight

No pitch-level data for this hitter in the current window.

FormNormal
Contact rating–percentile of xwOBA
Last 100 pitches–
wOBA / xwOBA.168 / .163results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit2/12
2+ total bases1/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Two strikes

Logan Gilbert SEA · RHPwith two strikes
Logan Gilbert with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Splitter16%37%37.0%17.6%21.3%
Fastball43%30%14.1%20.6%18.3%
Slider27%24%30.6%24.3%21.4%
Sweeper6%9%40.0%23.1%20.7%
Changeup6%1%33.3%25.0%18.4%
Travis d'Arnaud bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Travis d'Arnaud with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%44.4%43.3%
Whiff%22.3%23.5%
Contact%77.7%76.5%
Chase%39.6%39.4%
wOBA.207.235
Whiff vs his put-away shapes29.6%30.9%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeFBalanced type
wOBA.260
K%30.8%
BB%6.4%
Whiff%11.6%
Barrel%5.7%
Hard-hit%22.5%
Avg EV87.8

Against right-handers, last 90 days

12 PA
wOBA.256
xwOBA vs this mix.267against pitches like his
RV/100-1.16
Hard-hit%24.5%
K%26.7%
BB%7.5%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Logan GilbertRHP · SEA vs LAA
7.9projected strikeouts · likely 4 to 12 · 24.6 batters over 5.9 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 4.6%5%≤34 strikeouts: 5.9%6%45 strikeouts: 9.4%9%56 strikeouts: 12.3%12%67 strikeouts: 14.0%14%78 strikeouts: 13.8%14%89+ strikeouts: 40.0%40%9+book 7.5
Over 7.5: 54% (red bars) · under: 46%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%26.2%
BB%7.6%
Whiff%14.4%
Velo90.5
BTB Stuff107
Location103
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff%
Fastball43%11296.99.3%
Slider27%10787.418.9%
Splitter16%10682.621.2%
Changeup6%9186.514.5%
Sweeper6%9382.416.9%
Cutter1%10492.05.3%
Last 3 startsTrending Down
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 228513%12%38%.541
Sep 159626%17%19%.331
Sep 1010041%23%15%.254

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Logan Gilbert SEA · RHPvsLAA lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

7 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.8%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameLAA @ SEA →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Travis d'Arnaud: every projection we've made →