MLBengine v14
← LAA at SEA, Sep 27, 2026
2:10 PM CT · T-Mobile Park · lineup projected
Hitter · LAA · batting 4Vaughn Grissom
Bats rightTalent grade FBalancedNormal
.309wOBA vs RHP.281xwOBA vs his mix3.8expected PA
Starter · SEALogan Gilbert
Throws rightBTB Stuff 107Trending Down
7.9projected K26%K%2.7trips vs this hitter
Logan Gilbert's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 43% usage, 95.9 mph, +6.6″ arm side, +17.3″ rise. Vaughn Grissom: wOBA .330 vs league .339 (about even).Fastball 43%Slider: 28% usage, 87.6 mph, -1.4″ arm side, +0.7″ rise. Vaughn Grissom: wOBA .288 vs league .297 (about even).Slider 28%Splitter: 11% usage, 83.4 mph, +6.0″ arm side, +0.2″ rise. Vaughn Grissom: wOBA .231 vs league .240 (about even).Splitter 11%Curveball: 6% usage, 80.3 mph, -5.5″ arm side, -10.3″ rise. Vaughn Grissom: wOBA .285 vs league .295 (about even).Curveball 6%Sweeper: 5% usage, 82.5 mph, -13.9″ arm side, -3.5″ rise. Vaughn Grissom: wOBA .266 vs league .275 (about even).Sweeper 5%Changeup: 4% usage, 85.4 mph, +15.1″ arm side, +5.2″ rise. Vaughn Grissom: wOBA .301 vs league .311 (about even).Changeup 4%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Vaughn Grissom's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Vaughn Grissom's last 40 balls in playHit (12)Out (28)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Single: 74.6 mph at 25°Out: 80.1 mph at 37°Out: 100.9 mph at 19°Single: 98.4 mph at 7°Out: 78.9 mph at 39°Out: 101.0 mph at -2°Out: 84.7 mph at 3°Out: 86.0 mph at -9°Home run: 100.7 mph at 28°Out: 85.5 mph at 48°Out: 93.2 mph at 3°Single: 86.5 mph at 11°Single: 102.5 mph at 4°Single: 85.6 mph at -12°Out: 68.7 mph at 52°Single: 99.2 mph at 16°Out: 82.2 mph at 1°Single: 81.4 mph at 10°Out: 53.9 mph at -73°Out: 76.6 mph at 32°Out: 69.8 mph at -11°Out: 70.2 mph at -39°Home run: 103.8 mph at 26°Out: 97.0 mph at -16°Out: 94.6 mph at 22°Out: 95.3 mph at 24°Out: 92.1 mph at -17°Out: 92.8 mph at 26°Out: 75.2 mph at 41°Double: 92.5 mph at -1°Out: 61.3 mph at -16°Out: 91.9 mph at 23°Single: 81.2 mph at 20°Out: 87.6 mph at 3°Out: 101.6 mph at 18°Out: 71.4 mph at 77°Out: 94.2 mph at -7°Out: 87.1 mph at 27°Home run: 97.3 mph at 41°Out: 88.3 mph at -32°
28% hit 95+ mph38% in the sweet spot30% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit57.0%59.1%-2.0
2+ total bases30.2%32.1%-1.9
Home run9.1%9.8%-0.8
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-1.1
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.2
Park
-1.1
2+ total bases
Starter
-1.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.2
Park
-1.1
Home run
Starter
-0.8
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
-0.0

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Vaughn Grissom hits
Where they meet

.282 xwOBA for Vaughn Grissom in the spots Logan Gilbert throws to righties

The average hitter in those same spots: .305 (-23 points). His best spot against righties is up-middle, and Logan Gilbert puts 3% of his pitches there. Context only; the projection reads pitch type, not location.

Logan Gilbert · where he throws to right-handed hitters
5% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 8% per swing5%3% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 21% per swing3%2% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 22% per swing2%6% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 9% per swing6%6% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 24% per swing6%3% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 8% per swing3%6% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 27% per swing6%7% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 25% per swing7%5% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 33% per swing5%10% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 8% per swing10%4% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 50% per swing4%16% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 50% per swing16%28% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 58% per swing28%
All · 610 pitches · catcher's view
8% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters8%5% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters5%4% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters4%9% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters9%11% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters11%3% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters3%5% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters5%8% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters8%6% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters6%16% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters16%6% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters6%8% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters8%10% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters10%
Fastball · 261 pitches · catcher's view
4% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters4%2% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters2%1% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters1%5% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters5%4% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters4%2% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters2%9% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters9%11% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters11%5% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters5%6% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters6%2% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters2%21% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters21%30% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters30%
Slider · 173 pitches · catcher's view
0% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters0% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters0% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters0% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters1% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters1%0% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters7% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters7%2% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters2%2% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters2%5% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters5%0% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters30% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters30%53% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters53%
Splitter · 89 pitches · catcher's view
0% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters0% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters1% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters1%1% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters1%3% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters3%4% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters4%4% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters4%4% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters4%4% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters4%3% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters3%1% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters1%16% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters16%56% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters56%
Sweeper · 69 pitches · catcher's view

Share of his pitches in each spot; darker is more. Last 90 days.

Vaughn Grissom · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .222 shrunk (raw .153 on 9 PA) · league .274 · 28 pitches seen.222xwOBA .392 shrunk (raw .537 on 7 PA) · league .307 · 35 pitches seen.392xwOBA .206 shrunk (raw .035 on 4 PA) · league .263 · 19 pitches seen.206xwOBA .338 shrunk (raw .334 on 13 PA) · league .342 · 37 pitches seen.338xwOBA .372 shrunk (raw .364 on 21 PA) · league .386 · 48 pitches seen.372xwOBA .355 shrunk (raw .392 on 11 PA) · league .321 · 46 pitches seen.355xwOBA .319 shrunk (raw .333 on 10 PA) · league .308 · 27 pitches seen.319xwOBA .293 shrunk (raw .236 on 12 PA) · league .351 · 37 pitches seen.293xwOBA .237 shrunk (raw .207 on 22 PA) · league .292 · 50 pitches seen.237xwOBA .450 shrunk (raw .522 on 12 PA) · league .377 · 75 pitches seen.450xwOBA .259 shrunk (raw .239 on 9 PA) · league .274 · 48 pitches seen.259xwOBA .273 shrunk (raw .282 on 13 PA) · league .263 · 52 pitches seen.273xwOBA .188 shrunk (raw .162 on 40 PA) · league .274 · 190 pitches seen.188
vs RHP · 692 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 5% of 21 swings · league 22%5%Whiff 8% of 24 swings · league 20%8%Whiff 20% of 15 swings · league 19%20%Whiff 12% of 25 swings · league 10%12%Whiff 3% of 35 swings · league 9%3%Whiff 14% of 29 swings · league 11%14%Whiff 18% of 22 swings · league 14%18%Whiff 20% of 20 swings · league 13%20%Whiff 22% of 32 swings · league 17%22%Whiff 25% of 24 swings · league 28%25%Whiff 13% of 15 swings · league 24%13%Whiff 25% of 28 swings · league 32%25%Whiff 45% of 71 swings · league 49%45%
vs RHP · 692 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 75% of 28 pitches · league 62%75%Swings at 69% of 35 pitches · league 72%69%Swings at 79% of 19 pitches · league 66%79%Swings at 68% of 37 pitches · league 70%68%Swings at 73% of 48 pitches · league 76%73%Swings at 63% of 46 pitches · league 70%63%Swings at 82% of 27 pitches · league 65%82%Swings at 54% of 37 pitches · league 68%54%Swings at 64% of 50 pitches · league 60%64%Swings at 32% of 75 pitches · league 24%32%Swings at 31% of 48 pitches · league 34%31%Swings at 54% of 52 pitches · league 40%54%Swings at 37% of 190 pitches · league 32%37%
vs RHP · 692 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Vaughn Grissom against each of Logan Gilbert's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball43%95.9+7″ / +17″.330.33914.2%20.0%72About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Slider28%87.6-1″ / +1″.288.29730.4%33.8%38About league average vs these
Splitter11%83.4+6″ / +0″.231.24040.5%43.4%10About league average vs these
Curveball6%80.3-6″ / -10″.285.29526.6%29.6%35About league average vs these
Sweeper5%82.5-14″ / -4″.266.27531.5%34.6%42About league average vs these
Changeup4%85.4+15″ / +5″.301.31130.5%32.8%30About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Vaughn Grissom · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G518.312.389.312.328.3190.0%5.6%11.1%82.8101.00.0%18.8%31.2%
Last 15 G1441.206.317.324.313.25912.2%9.8%19.0%82.5101.00.0%16.7%26.7%
Last 30 G2884.225.325.394.343.31815.5%7.1%19.1%83.9108.35.0%28.3%30.0%
90 days61184.222.279.371.306.27822.8%4.9%21.1%85.1108.35.5%29.7%32.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 128 balls in play
Ground 47%Line drive 20%Fly ball 23%Pop-up 10%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G35.600.6001.200.760.55420.0%0.0%16.7%98.9102.525.0%75.0%50.0%
Last 15 G1223.250.304.550.391.34521.7%4.3%14.3%90.3103.812.5%37.5%43.8%
Last 30 G2244.250.295.525.364.31918.2%4.5%14.3%90.0104.99.1%36.4%39.4%
90 days47104.298.356.447.360.32321.2%5.8%19.8%87.1110.05.5%34.2%37.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 73 balls in play
Ground 51%Line drive 25%Fly ball 18%Pop-up 7%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G523.381.435.524.422.3704.3%4.3%11.9%86.0102.55.0%30.0%35.0%
Last 15 G1564.222.312.407.341.29015.6%7.8%17.4%85.2103.84.3%23.9%32.6%
Last 30 G30128.234.315.441.350.31816.4%6.2%17.5%86.0108.36.5%31.2%33.3%
90 days69288.249.307.398.325.29422.2%5.2%20.6%85.8110.05.5%31.3%33.8%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 201 balls in play
Ground 48%Line drive 21%Fly ball 21%Pop-up 9%
Vaughn Grissom · percentile ranksvs 228 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating44Below average
Last 100 pitches99trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.320 / .311results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit7/12
2+ total bases5/12
Home run2/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPSplitter84.074.625.761Single
Sep 25RHPFastball94.880.137.018Out
Sep 25RHPSweeper84.4100.919.468Out
Sep 25RHPSweeper83.298.47.547Single
Sep 24RHPSweeper82.578.939.059Out
Sep 24RHPSinker95.5101.0-2.324Out
Sep 24RHPFastball94.384.73.273Double play
Sep 24RHPCurveball80.486.0-9.119Force out
Sep 23LHPFastball90.9100.7281.151Home run
Sep 23RHPFastball97.085.548.003Out
Sep 23LHPChangeup80.693.23.466Out
Sep 23RHPSlider85.586.511.542Single
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25522010
Sep 24500001
Sep 23425100
Sep 22533000
Sep 20411000
Sep 19614111
Sep 18400011
Sep 17100000
Sep 16500002
Sep 15412000

Two strikes

Logan Gilbert SEA · RHPwith two strikes
Logan Gilbert with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Splitter16%37%37.0%17.6%21.3%
Fastball43%30%14.1%20.6%18.3%
Slider27%24%30.6%24.3%21.4%
Sweeper6%9%40.0%23.1%20.7%
Changeup6%1%33.3%25.0%18.4%
Vaughn Grissom bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Vaughn Grissom with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Makes contact on his two-strike stuff more than most
With two strikesHimLeague
K%38.6%43.3%
Whiff%19.1%23.5%
Contact%80.9%76.5%
Chase%42.7%39.4%
wOBA.235.235
Whiff vs his put-away shapes25.7%30.9%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeFBalanced type
wOBA.322
K%22.2%
BB%5.7%
Whiff%10.3%
Barrel%4.1%
Hard-hit%22.7%
Avg EV86.2

Against right-handers, last 90 days

181 PA
wOBA.309
xwOBA vs this mix.281against pitches like his
RV/1000.05
Hard-hit%21.6%
K%22.6%
BB%5.4%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Logan GilbertRHP · SEA vs LAA
7.9projected strikeouts · likely 4 to 12 · 24.6 batters over 5.9 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 4.6%5%≤34 strikeouts: 5.9%6%45 strikeouts: 9.4%9%56 strikeouts: 12.3%12%67 strikeouts: 14.0%14%78 strikeouts: 13.8%14%89+ strikeouts: 40.0%40%9+book 7.5
Over 7.5: 54% (red bars) · under: 46%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%26.2%
BB%7.6%
Whiff%14.4%
Velo90.5
BTB Stuff107
Location103
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff%
Fastball43%11296.99.3%
Slider27%10787.418.9%
Splitter16%10682.621.2%
Changeup6%9186.514.5%
Sweeper6%9382.416.9%
Cutter1%10492.05.3%
Last 3 startsTrending Down
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 228513%12%38%.541
Sep 159626%17%19%.331
Sep 1010041%23%15%.254

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Logan Gilbert SEA · RHPvsLAA lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

7 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.8%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameLAA @ SEA →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Vaughn Grissom: every projection we've made →