MLBengine v14
← LAA at SEA, Sep 27, 2026
2:10 PM CT · T-Mobile Park · lineup projected
Hitter · LAA · batting 1Zach Neto
Bats rightTalent grade CBalancedNormal
.320wOBA vs RHP.311xwOBA vs his mix4.0expected PA
Starter · SEALogan Gilbert
Throws rightBTB Stuff 107Trending Down
7.9projected K26%K%2.7trips vs this hitter
Logan Gilbert's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 43% usage, 95.9 mph, +6.6″ arm side, +17.3″ rise. Zach Neto: wOBA .343 vs league .339 (about even).Fastball 43%Slider: 28% usage, 87.6 mph, -1.4″ arm side, +0.7″ rise. Zach Neto: wOBA .301 vs league .297 (about even).Slider 28%Splitter: 11% usage, 83.4 mph, +6.0″ arm side, +0.2″ rise. Zach Neto: wOBA .243 vs league .240 (about even).Splitter 11%Curveball: 6% usage, 80.3 mph, -5.5″ arm side, -10.3″ rise. Zach Neto: wOBA .298 vs league .295 (about even).Curveball 6%Sweeper: 5% usage, 82.5 mph, -13.9″ arm side, -3.5″ rise. Zach Neto: wOBA .279 vs league .275 (about even).Sweeper 5%Changeup: 4% usage, 85.4 mph, +15.1″ arm side, +5.2″ rise. Zach Neto: wOBA .313 vs league .311 (about even).Changeup 4%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Zach Neto's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Zach Neto's last 40 balls in playHit (17)Out (23)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Double: 93.6 mph at 11°Double: 103.3 mph at 22°Home run: 105.6 mph at 35°Out: 79.6 mph at 12°Single: 94.6 mph at 22°Out: 68.3 mph at 43°Out: 95.5 mph at 41°Single: 108.4 mph at 15°Single: 95.7 mph at 9°Out: 108.2 mph at 18°Out: 83.4 mph at 39°Out: 87.3 mph at 66°Out: 92.6 mph at 31°Out: 106.2 mph at 6°Out: 102.8 mph at 43°Out: 103.2 mph at 39°Single: 95.2 mph at 4°Single: 90.1 mph at 15°Out: 83.3 mph at 63°Out: 82.9 mph at 55°Single: 102.6 mph at 9°Triple: 98.0 mph at 13°Out: 91.4 mph at 54°Home run: 107.1 mph at 26°Out: 73.0 mph at 7°Out: 95.2 mph at 45°Out: 90.2 mph at -19°Out: 52.4 mph at -63°Out: 76.9 mph at 67°Out: 87.7 mph at 61°Out: 98.7 mph at 38°Out: 85.0 mph at 8°Home run: 106.0 mph at 25°Single: 95.0 mph at 17°Single: 86.3 mph at 16°Out: 98.5 mph at 22°Home run: 104.2 mph at 38°Single: 90.8 mph at 16°Double: 91.3 mph at 21°Out: 76.7 mph at -7°
48% hit 95+ mph48% in the sweet spot43% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit56.9%59.3%-2.5
2+ total bases36.0%37.9%-1.9
Home run15.3%15.4%-0.1
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-1.5
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.2
Park
-1.1
2+ total bases
Starter
-1.1
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.2
Park
-1.1
Home run
Starter
-0.2
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
-0.1

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Zach Neto hits
Where they meet

.305 xwOBA for Zach Neto in the spots Logan Gilbert throws to righties

The average hitter in those same spots: .305 (+1 points). His best spot against righties is up and left, outside, and Logan Gilbert puts 10% of his pitches there. Context only; the projection reads pitch type, not location.

Logan Gilbert · where he throws to right-handed hitters
5% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 8% per swing5%3% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 21% per swing3%2% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 22% per swing2%6% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 9% per swing6%6% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 24% per swing6%3% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 8% per swing3%6% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 27% per swing6%7% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 25% per swing7%5% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 33% per swing5%10% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 8% per swing10%4% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 50% per swing4%16% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 50% per swing16%28% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 58% per swing28%
All · 610 pitches · catcher's view
8% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters8%5% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters5%4% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters4%9% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters9%11% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters11%3% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters3%5% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters5%8% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters8%6% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters6%16% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters16%6% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters6%8% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters8%10% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters10%
Fastball · 261 pitches · catcher's view
4% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters4%2% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters2%1% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters1%5% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters5%4% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters4%2% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters2%9% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters9%11% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters11%5% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters5%6% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters6%2% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters2%21% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters21%30% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters30%
Slider · 173 pitches · catcher's view
0% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters0% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters0% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters0% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters1% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters1%0% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters7% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters7%2% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters2%2% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters2%5% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters5%0% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters30% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters30%53% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters53%
Splitter · 89 pitches · catcher's view
0% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters0% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters1% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters1%1% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters1%3% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters3%4% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters4%4% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters4%4% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters4%4% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters4%3% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters3%1% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters1%16% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters16%56% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters56%
Sweeper · 69 pitches · catcher's view

Share of his pitches in each spot; darker is more. Last 90 days.

Zach Neto · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .197 shrunk (raw .043 on 6 PA) · league .274 · 22 pitches seen.197xwOBA .220 shrunk (raw .070 on 7 PA) · league .307 · 21 pitches seen.220xwOBA .244 shrunk (raw .207 on 6 PA) · league .263 · 22 pitches seen.244xwOBA .237 shrunk (raw .056 on 7 PA) · league .342 · 27 pitches seen.237xwOBA .415 shrunk (raw .435 on 17 PA) · league .386 · 46 pitches seen.415xwOBA .375 shrunk (raw .407 on 20 PA) · league .321 · 56 pitches seen.375xwOBA .286 shrunk (raw .261 on 11 PA) · league .308 · 34 pitches seen.286xwOBA .423 shrunk (raw .464 on 21 PA) · league .351 · 59 pitches seen.423xwOBA .287 shrunk (raw .281 on 11 PA) · league .292 · 49 pitches seen.287xwOBA .531 shrunk (raw .646 on 16 PA) · league .377 · 62 pitches seen.531xwOBA .227 shrunk (raw .180 on 12 PA) · league .274 · 83 pitches seen.227xwOBA .245 shrunk (raw .232 on 16 PA) · league .263 · 87 pitches seen.245xwOBA .258 shrunk (raw .255 on 79 PA) · league .274 · 383 pitches seen.258
vs RHP · 951 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 18% of 11 swings · league 22%18%Whiff 13% of 16 swings · league 20%13%Whiff 47% of 15 swings · league 19%47%Whiff 14% of 14 swings · league 10%14%Whiff 0% of 35 swings · league 9%0%Whiff 12% of 41 swings · league 11%12%Whiff 28% of 25 swings · league 14%28%Whiff 20% of 35 swings · league 13%20%Whiff 18% of 33 swings · league 17%18%Whiff 14% of 14 swings · league 28%14%Whiff 32% of 34 swings · league 24%32%Whiff 55% of 38 swings · league 32%55%Whiff 51% of 161 swings · league 49%51%
vs RHP · 951 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 50% of 22 pitches · league 62%50%Swings at 76% of 21 pitches · league 72%76%Swings at 68% of 22 pitches · league 66%68%Swings at 52% of 27 pitches · league 70%52%Swings at 76% of 46 pitches · league 76%76%Swings at 73% of 56 pitches · league 70%73%Swings at 74% of 34 pitches · league 65%74%Swings at 59% of 59 pitches · league 68%59%Swings at 67% of 49 pitches · league 60%67%Swings at 23% of 62 pitches · league 24%23%Swings at 41% of 83 pitches · league 34%41%Swings at 44% of 87 pitches · league 40%44%Swings at 42% of 383 pitches · league 32%42%
vs RHP · 951 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Zach Neto against each of Logan Gilbert's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball43%95.9+7″ / +17″.343.33919.4%20.0%261About league average vs these
Slider28%87.6-1″ / +1″.301.29739.7%33.8%121About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Splitter11%83.4+6″ / +0″.243.24053.7%43.4%17About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Curveball6%80.3-6″ / -10″.298.29535.0%29.6%80About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Sweeper5%82.5-14″ / -4″.279.27540.0%34.6%110About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Changeup4%85.4+15″ / +5″.313.31141.7%32.8%107About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Zach Neto · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G518.286.444.643.456.44327.8%22.2%27.3%92.1108.233.3%33.3%66.7%
Last 15 G1551.184.392.395.359.38831.4%19.6%36.8%90.5108.218.2%36.4%36.4%
Last 30 G2998.238.378.438.362.36032.7%13.3%32.4%91.9108.212.5%39.6%47.9%
90 days71229.222.328.369.313.30531.9%10.9%32.6%89.3108.29.6%39.2%40.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 125 balls in play
Ground 29%Line drive 22%Fly ball 33%Pop-up 17%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G24.500.500.500.450.3480.0%0.0%20.0%96.7108.40.0%75.0%50.0%
Last 15 G717.375.412.688.465.39523.5%5.9%22.2%95.7108.48.3%75.0%58.3%
Last 30 G1538.389.421.722.482.44215.8%2.6%21.5%92.2108.413.3%53.3%63.3%
90 days4098.337.357.568.396.35120.4%2.0%28.8%91.0109.710.7%52.0%48.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 75 balls in play
Ground 29%Line drive 25%Fly ball 33%Pop-up 12%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G522.333.455.611.455.42622.7%18.2%25.9%93.5108.423.1%46.2%61.5%
Last 15 G1568.241.397.481.385.39029.4%16.2%32.1%92.3108.414.7%50.0%44.1%
Last 30 G30136.284.390.526.396.38327.9%10.3%28.9%92.0108.412.8%44.9%53.8%
90 days74327.259.336.433.338.31928.4%8.3%31.5%90.0109.710.0%44.0%43.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 200 balls in play
Ground 29%Line drive 23%Fly ball 33%Pop-up 15%
Zach Neto · percentile ranksvs 228 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating67Above average
Last 100 pitches99trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.344 / .334results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit7/12
2+ total bases4/12
Home run2/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPSlider87.693.611.762Double
Sep 25RHPFastball94.1103.322.927Double
Sep 25RHPSweeper83.5105.6351.437Home run
Sep 25RHPSweeper84.279.612.444Out
Sep 24RHPSinker95.794.622.243Single
Sep 24RHPCurveball81.168.343.371Out
Sep 23LHPSweeper79.595.541.053Out
Sep 23LHPChangeup79.9108.415.748Single
Sep 22LHPChangeup86.895.79.584Single
Sep 22RHPSinker97.4108.218.815Out
Sep 22RHPSweeper84.383.439.026Out
Sep 22LHPFastball92.287.366.007Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25538101
Sep 24511012
Sep 23411020
Sep 22511010
Sep 20300002
Sep 19600013
Sep 18400021
Sep 17500013
Sep 16522011
Sep 15400011

Two strikes

Logan Gilbert SEA · RHPwith two strikes
Logan Gilbert with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Splitter16%37%37.0%17.6%21.3%
Fastball43%30%14.1%20.6%18.3%
Slider27%24%30.6%24.3%21.4%
Sweeper6%9%40.0%23.1%20.7%
Changeup6%1%33.3%25.0%18.4%
Zach Neto bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Zach Neto with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Misses his two-strike stuff more than most
With two strikesHimLeague
K%47.1%43.3%
Whiff%27.1%23.5%
Contact%72.9%76.5%
Chase%41.3%39.4%
wOBA.234.235
Whiff vs his put-away shapes34.9%30.9%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeCBalanced type
wOBA.342
K%28.1%
BB%8.1%
Whiff%15.2%
Barrel%6.2%
Hard-hit%26.9%
Avg EV89.9

Against right-handers, last 90 days

226 PA
wOBA.320
xwOBA vs this mix.311against pitches like his
RV/1000.41
Hard-hit%22.3%
K%30.6%
BB%8.3%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Logan GilbertRHP · SEA vs LAA
7.9projected strikeouts · likely 4 to 12 · 24.6 batters over 5.9 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 4.6%5%≤34 strikeouts: 5.9%6%45 strikeouts: 9.4%9%56 strikeouts: 12.3%12%67 strikeouts: 14.0%14%78 strikeouts: 13.8%14%89+ strikeouts: 40.0%40%9+book 7.5
Over 7.5: 54% (red bars) · under: 46%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%26.2%
BB%7.6%
Whiff%14.4%
Velo90.5
BTB Stuff107
Location103
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff%
Fastball43%11296.99.3%
Slider27%10787.418.9%
Splitter16%10682.621.2%
Changeup6%9186.514.5%
Sweeper6%9382.416.9%
Cutter1%10492.05.3%
Last 3 startsTrending Down
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 228513%12%38%.541
Sep 159626%17%19%.331
Sep 1010041%23%15%.254

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Logan Gilbert SEA · RHPvsLAA lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

7 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.8%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameLAA @ SEA →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Zach Neto: every projection we've made →